MyDD :: MO-Gov: Nixon Up Big Over Either GOP Candidate

MO-Gov: Nixon Up Big Over Either GOP Candidate

by Jonathan Singer, Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:29:43 PM EST

Earlier this week, SurveyUSA released polling on the Missouri Governor's race, which will feature Democratic Attorney General Jay Nixon and one of two potential GOP nominees seeking to succeed incumbent Matt Blunt, whose extremely poor ratings have prohibited him from running for a second term. The numbers look good. Real good.

Congressman Kenny Hulshof (R): 33 percent
Attorney General Jay Nixon (D): 57 percent

State Treasurer Sarah Steelman (R): 33 percent
Attorney General Jay Nixon (D): 58 percent

Lest you think these numbers are too bullish on Nixon's chances this fall (after all, while Nixon has won four statewide elections as AG, he has lost two for the Senate in the past), Rasmussen Reports polling released earlier in the month showed Nixon leading either Steelman (whose husband Nixon beat in 1992) and Hulshof by 16 points -- not too far off from the margin found by SUSA. So all in all, while the prognosticators may call this one a tossup, it sure looks like Nixon has a great chance at becoming Missouri's next governor (potentially opening up the possibility of Barack Obama putting Claire McCaskill on the ticket?).

Tags: MO-Gov, Governor 2008, Missouri (all tags)

Permalink :: 20 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: MO-Gov: Nixon Up Big Over Either GOP Candidate (none / 0)

Yeah, Nixon won three times with 59, 60, and 60 percent over pretty much unknown opponents.

There's a slight barrier around 60% where it's hard to get a Democrat over that percentage. McCaskill won 60% in 2002 over Al Hanson for Auditor, despite Hanson being an ex-felon with no institutional support.

I think that Nixon's numbers are due to move down slightly. But the primary might be a choice for Missouri Republicans between losing votes in the I70 corridor (Columbia to St. Louis) and losing votes in the I44 corridor (St. Louis to Springfield).

by RBH on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:36:24 PM EST

Did (2.00 / 1)

Did SUSA also poll the presidential race in Missouri?

Why yes they did.

Hillary 48
McCain 46

McCain 48
Obama 45

99% perspiration

by DaveOinSF on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:55:42 PM EST

Re: Did (none / 0)

Nice one!

I proudly support Barack Obama for President!

by Zeitgeist9000 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:58:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Did (none / 0)

Obama just doesn't do well in outstate MO.

He carried MO in the primary on the strength of the KC and St. Louis vote.

I proudly support Barack Obama for President!

by Zeitgeist9000 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:59:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Did (none / 0)

both numbers are vey close, each within,or close to the Moe. also, the susa primary poll MASSIVELY underpolled obama. most likely a surge of african american turnout for him. not saying it will happen again, but it's something to consider.

forive my spellng, i guess dell dosn't think the keys shuld have respod every time you pess don on them

by Doug Tuttle on Wed May 21, 2008 at 10:13:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Did (none / 0)

Missouri is a microcosm of the country as a whole. St. Louis and Kansas City on the "coasts", both Democratic, with a large Gulf of Red in between. I'm betting the polling did not take into account the weight of the two major cities. If you watch election results in Missouri, they always go blue late - as the more populous and liberal cities start posting results.

John McCain Hates Poor People

by pneuma on Thu May 22, 2008 at 03:45:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yeah (none / 0)

the internals show Men and independents moving away from both Obama and Clinton, while Women and Democrats move towards both Obama and Clinton.

by RBH on Wed May 21, 2008 at 10:39:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Let's Make Missouri into Nixonland! (none / 0)

Those numbers are going to get tighter but this is amazing news. I'd still settle for a one vote victory, Missouri is always close for anything that matters. Nixon will need gains in the legislature to make any lasting changes in a state that needs change more than most. Republicans still control both Houses in Jeff City.

by howardpark on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:55:52 PM EST

Re: MO-Gov: Nixon Up Big Over Either GOP Candidate (none / 0)

There is no chance that Obama chooses McCaskill, because if he wants to pick a woman, it has to be Hillary, othewise, No!, not because there aren't good out there, it is just the virtual assumption that can be seen out there with women and Hillary.

Plus, Obama needs a white male, not a woman, so Webb, Bayh and Clark are good choices.

by American1989 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 10:21:26 PM EST

Re: MO-Gov: Nixon Up Big Over Either GOP Candidate (none / 0)

What does McCaskill provide as a VP?? Seriously??????

by Liberty on Wed May 21, 2008 at 10:22:49 PM EST

Re: MO-Gov: Nixon Up Big Over Either GOP Candidate (none / 0)

bayh? blah!

forive my spellng, i guess dell dosn't think the keys shuld have respod every time you pess don on them

by Doug Tuttle on Wed May 21, 2008 at 10:25:56 PM EST

Re: MO-Gov: Nixon Up Big Over Either GOP Candidate (none / 0)

Based on the latest Rasmussen polls of Florida and Ohio (Arkansas too), I think that Hillary has a shot to be the VP nominee. Love her or hate her, her potential to help in these key states is a lot to pass up.

by jlgarsh on Wed May 21, 2008 at 10:32:48 PM EST

Claire McCaskill for VP (none / 0)

Still seems a bit farfetched to me. McCaskill was the Missouri State Auditor until 2007.

She's a good Dem and all, but it's just hard to see. Especially with Sebelius being taken seriously too. Sebelius is much more plausible than McCaskill.

by RBH on Wed May 21, 2008 at 10:43:50 PM EST

Re: Claire McCaskill for VP (none / 0)

Obama was a state senator until 2005

by rossinatl on Thu May 22, 2008 at 01:06:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MO-Gov: Nixon Up Big Over Either GOP Candidate (none / 0)

I live in Missouri and I can tell you that Nixon definitely has a huge lead right now. Blunt has managed to piss off people on both sides of his party, and until they have a nominee the Republican brand will not be as strong as it usually is here. With that said, Missouri Republicans are a much tougher bunch to beat than in other areas. Our democratic candidates always seem to suck.

Story about Blunt that no one probably cares about: Out of college I was a salesman and when Blunt was running in 2004 I was working with a client who volunteered for her church. She worked full time for the state. She was a massive Blunt supporter and when I came in to have her sign the contract papers for her church, she was packing up her desk because she had been let go with a large chunk of that department under Blunt's budget cuts. I felt terrible for her because her husband was unable to work and she was in her late 50's. She told me that voting for Blunt was the biggest mistake she had ever made in her life.

by Xris on Wed May 21, 2008 at 10:46:59 PM EST

Yeah (none / 0)

Blunt's first half year as Governor was awful, and for a large portion of 2005/2006, his job approval was around the low 30s.

He fought on long enough to have like $10M on hand, but he could have spent $100M and still lost to Jay Nixon.

Not to mention that Blunt ignored his base on the stem cells amendment, and by endorsing Romney early (while Huckabee rolled in Blunt's base area).

The one thing that is going to help General Assembly Republicans is the removal of donation limits on August 28th. That'll probably start a massive money race once a few rich people start dropping $10K checks for state house candidates.

by RBH on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:28:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yeah (none / 0)

I remember my friends and I figured Blunt was just trying to piss everyone off early and hope they would forget by 2008. To my surprise, most people didn't.

The removal of donation limits will make things harder for us down ballot, but I still think Nixon will probably win.

Have you ever seen Nixon in person? He is incredibly smart but so boring.

by Xris on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:32:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yeah (none / 0)

I haven't seen him in person. But Jay elevated himself from bland to interesting with his college plan.

I can't verify or deny if Sam Page is the creation of Jay Nixon conspiring with stem cell researching elitists. ;)

by RBH on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:53:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yeah (none / 0)

don't get me wrong, I like Jay but he is still pretty boring to listen to. He is a good fit for this state and I am confident he will do well in November.

by Xris on Tue May 27, 2008 at 10:36:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yeah (none / 0)

I hear he is to face criminal charges and daddy Blount was not going to have his lifetime of earned political capital trashed by it.

Add to that, Jr. was being groomed for a future federal role, I think they'll sequester him for a few years until this blows over and dig him out again for senate or better.

MO has flipped a few red seats and I think the 9th Dist seat will be doable now that it's been abandoned by the guy running for Gov. MO can very well go Dem this year given its discontent with the Rethugs on a state and national level. We just have to go to the places we seldom go and support folks running for seats in places like the 9th.

We'll see, folks, but I'm very optimistic for the Show Me this year.

To kill one person is murder. To kill thousands is foreign policy." - Chinese writer Moh-Tze

by ILean Left on Thu May 22, 2008 at 01:47:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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