MyDD :: Oregon Primary Results Thread

Oregon Primary Results Thread

by Jonathan Singer, Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:07:26 PM EST

√ Barack Obama: 319,164 votes (58 percent)
Hillary Clinton: 228,494 votes (42 percent)

84 percent of precincts reporting as of 4:25 AM Eastern

Update [by Jonathan Singer]: The Merkley-Novick Senate primary is close so far with Merkley now leading 47 percent to 41 percent with 54 percent of precincts reporting (12:43 AM Eastern).

Update [2008-5-21 0:56:36 by Jonathan Singer]: Per KGW, Steve Novick will concede within a few minutes. I'm with Markos -- this competitive primary race could turn out to be a boon for the Democrats, helping the party get ready to take on Gordon Smith in the fall.

Update [2008-5-21 1:10:37 by Jonathan Singer]: KGW news has called the Democratic Senate primary for House Speaker Jeff Merkley, and Steve Novick is now conceding the race.

------

Update [2008-5-20 23:24:29 by Jonathan Singer]: Per exit poll data on KGW, Portland's NBC affiliate, Barack Obama beat Hillary Clinton among those without college degrees, defying a bit of conventional wisdom that he cannot win that demographic.

Update [2008-5-20 23:27:49 by Jonathan Singer]: Also defying conventional wisdom, Obama is not only winning in the Portland-area but also more rural regions of the state, including places like Jefferson County in the middle of the state and Curry County down on the California border.

Update [2008-5-21 2:2:37 by Jonathan Singer]: Crunching the numbers, it looks like Obama should pick up 30 delegates out of the state to 22 for Clinton (though the numbers could move one or two delegates in either direction).

Tags: Oregon Primary, Oregon, Democratic Primaries (all tags)

Permalink :: 113 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Oregon Primary Results Thread (2.00 / 1)

This voting by mail system is impressive

by bluestatedude on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:06:35 PM EST

It is (none / 0)

but it took almost 10 years to perfect. I think all states should do it as it does increase participation because it is so damn easy.

by sweet potato pie on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:38:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It is (none / 0)

Having watched my parents use it, I agree.

Though I'd miss my sticker.

the third eye does not weep. it knows.

by mijita on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:40:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oregon Primary Results Thread (none / 0)

So if it is a 40,000 difference at 10%...does that point to an over 300,000 vote pick-up in Oregon...More than the 250,000 in Kentucky.

Matthew25Network.com

by cardboard 1 on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:08:44 PM EST

Re: Oregon Primary Results Thread (none / 0)

Probably not. I think the estimates were something like 800,000 votes cast in OR. If he wins 60/40, that would be a margin of 160,000.

by DPW on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:12:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Enough with the "Whoop-Dee-Doo" (none / 0)

"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!

by Al Rodgers on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:18:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oregon Primary Results Thread (none / 0)

No.

When it says "50% reporting," that doesn't mean "50% of all votes cast." It means 50% of all precincts. Some precints are much larger than others.

Hope that helps.

Lifelong Democrat, civil rights advocate, former volunteer for Dem candidates. Now Independent.

by BPK80 on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:49:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oregon Primary Results Thread (none / 0)

gotcha wasn't sure how mail-in worked on reporting level

Matthew25Network.com

by cardboard 1 on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:50:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oregon Primary Results Thread (none / 0)

Chris Matthews and Keith Olbermann has just validated Hillary's bogus fuzzy math that disenfranchises most the midwest and half the voters in MI!

Well, I guess if you repeat a lie often enough, people believe it's true!

Didn't Karl Rove teach that?

It profits a PUMA nothing to give their soul for the whole world... but for McCain? --Sir Thomas More (if he were here now)

by LordMike on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:08:47 PM EST

Tweety brain is missing alot of wiring. (none / 0)

"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!

by Al Rodgers on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:15:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

A little more than just wiring, lotta hot air up (none / 0)

there.

by SocialDem on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:47:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

MSNBC calls it for Obama... (none / 0)

Obama secures majority of pledged delegates, path to nomination clearly laid out.

by Seeking Cincinnatus on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:09:01 PM EST

Re: MSNBC calls it for Obama... (none / 0)

Depends on where they move the goal posts tomorrow.

Capitalization is the difference between "I had to help my uncle Jack off a horse..." and "I had to help my uncle jack off a horse..."

by igottheblues on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:37:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MSNBC calls it for Obama... (none / 0)

Of course, Clinton can't REALLY move the goal posts. In spite of rhetoric and spin, they have remained steadfastly in the same place that the party established them.

Anybody's vote is worth having. But not everybody's vote is worth campaigning for.

by Freespeechzone on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:03:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

BREAKING: Oregon changes name to O'bama (2.00 / 4)

The New Yawk Times is reporting, Oregon has just passed an initiative to change the state's name to O'bama!

"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!

by Al Rodgers on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:14:05 PM EST

Re: Oregon Primary Results Thread (2.00 / 2)

OMG, the press is reporting that Obama suddenly recovered the hard working white vote!!!

It's a miracle!

No, it's moving west of the Mississippi...

It profits a PUMA nothing to give their soul for the whole world... but for McCain? --Sir Thomas More (if he were here now)

by LordMike on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:18:23 PM EST

Actually ... (none / 0)

As Big Tent Democrat pointed out on TalkLeft, Obama did not really win back the working class vote in Oregon:

In Oregon, a state as favorable as you can find for Obama on this score, Clinton won voters with a HS degree and no college 53-46. In Oregon, Clinton won voters earning less than $30,000 a year by 54-45.

If your intent is to bury your head in the sand, you will include the "some college" group (read COLLEGE STUDENTS) into the working class. Some Obama supporting observers will play that game. But that will not make the problem go away.

http://www.talkleft.com/story/2008/5/21/ 12456/2115

Fortune strums a mournful tune for those whose campaigns peak too soon. --Bored of the Rings

by Inky on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:55:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm confused (2.00 / 3)

I thought Obama couldn't win white voters?

Do white people in Oregon not work that hard?

Does anybody else feel like this whole primary has been like living in the mind of a schizo Larry Sabato. Kentucky gave us one story, Oregon completely refuted it. This country is all over the place.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:19:48 PM EST

"This country is all over the place. " (2.00 / 1)

That's what I like about it.

:~)

It makes for great fun playing demographic monopoly, but in the end we are all the same in very different ways.

-chris

Motley Moose, Troll Free Blogging

by chrisblask on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:22:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "This country is all over the (2.00 / 1)

I guess us former Oregonians aren't considered "hard-workers" in our Birkenstocks.

There must be some way to spin why over 60% of us were misguided in our support for Obama.

NO 100 year WAR, NO McConnell run Senate, & NO GOP-led Supreme Court!!!

by Veteran75 on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:30:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oregon Primary Results Thread (none / 0)

he slayed clinton

by theninjagoddess on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:20:02 PM EST

Re: Oregon Primary Results Thread (none / 0)

Steve Novick just won!

https://secure.sos.state.or.us/eim/goToE lectionResults.do?actionId=viewLoad& mode=view

by American1989 on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:20:14 PM EST

Re: Oregon Primary Results Thread (none / 0)

sorry.. i seem to have read the website wrong!

by American1989 on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:21:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oregon Primary Results Thread (none / 0)

Merkley's in the lead. I hope he keeps it, but with all due respect to Novick's disability, if I have to hear or see the "left hook" pun throughout the general election, I will have to occasionally shake my head in polite disdain.

I proudly support Barack Obama for President!

by Zeitgeist9000 on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:28:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Pat Buchanan is still supporting Hillary (2.00 / 1)

Hmmmm.

How sweet.

"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!

by Al Rodgers on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:21:05 PM EST

With friends like that... (none / 0)

by DawnG on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:41:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oregon Primary Results Thread (none / 0)

David Gergen in CNN said that Hillary should disavow those who voted for her based on race.

Yeah, right... that's going to happen!

It profits a PUMA nothing to give their soul for the whole world... but for McCain? --Sir Thomas More (if he were here now)

by LordMike on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:25:02 PM EST

Re: Oregon Primary Results Thread (2.00 / 1)

She's already disowned half of the states. Why stop there?

http://www.yawnmccain.com

by enozinho on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:30:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Exactly right!! - LOL!! (none / 0)

"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!

by Al Rodgers on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:33:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

He must mean some other Hillary (none / 0)

He's probably referring to Hillary Duff

"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!

by Al Rodgers on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:31:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oregon Primary Results Thread (none / 0)

and will Obama disavow the ones who voted based on sex? silly argument either way so I have to wonder why you had to regurgitate it here? are you really a republican troll ( seems the 'in' thing to call people these days) trying to rile up HRC supporters and drive them to McInsane?

by zerosumgame on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:40:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Hillary won the voters (2.00 / 1)

who voted based on sex.

by Angry White Democrat on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:44:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Well, sex sells (none / 0)

wink-wink!

"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!

by Al Rodgers on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:48:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary won the voters (none / 0)

20% of the respondents in that same exit poll.

by zerosumgame on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:26:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yeah, I think they both should (2.00 / 2)

I loved the moment when JE said:

"If you're not voting for Barack because he's Black, and you're not voting for Hillary because she's a woman, don't vote for me..."

That's what I want my party and candidates to stand for.

the third eye does not weep. it knows.

by mijita on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:47:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oregon Primary Results Thread (none / 0)

Obama going to do that too?

99% perspiration

by DaveOinSF on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:49:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Time Magazine Raves Over Speech (2.00 / 1)

"ONE OF THE BEST-WRITTEN (AND DELIVERED) SPEECHES OF THE CAMPAIGN. [emphasis original]"

http://thepage.time.com/

"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!

by Al Rodgers on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:28:27 PM EST

Re: Time Magazine Raves Over Speech (none / 0)

It was Hillary's West Virginia speech.

"We came from behind, they counted us out, but [snip WV, replace with "Iowa"] had something else in mind!"

In the same manner, Barack's North Carolina speech was essentially the same as Hillary's Pennsylvania speech from two weeks prior.

He'll probably be the nominee, but the borrowing of Hillary's oratory ideas is something that genuinely stuck out at me in his last two speeches.

Lifelong Democrat, civil rights advocate, former volunteer for Dem candidates. Now Independent.

by BPK80 on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:53:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Oh, so you loved the speech! (none / 0)

thank you.

"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!

by Al Rodgers on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:45:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oh, so you loved the speech! (none / 0)

I did, especially when Hillary delivered it in West Virginia. :-P

Lifelong Democrat, civil rights advocate, former volunteer for Dem candidates. Now Independent.

by BPK80 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 02:27:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

They are counting fast (none / 0)

They're faster than the head cheerleader on prom night.

I proudly support Barack Obama for President!

by Zeitgeist9000 on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:33:42 PM EST

Re: They are counting fast (none / 0)

Dude.

by JustJennifer on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:37:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: They are counting fast (none / 0)

Okay, okay.

I proudly support Barack Obama for President!

by Zeitgeist9000 on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:41:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

roflmao (none / 0)

phantom mojo for the metaphor.

Capitalization is the difference between "I had to help my uncle Jack off a horse..." and "I had to help my uncle jack off a horse..."

by igottheblues on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:43:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

So... (none / 0)

...who's going to go out on the TeeVee and argue that Oregon doesn't count?

by DawnG on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:38:59 PM EST

Re: So... (none / 0)

Oregon counts. Every state counts; that's the point of a democracy.

Obama may pull out 100,000 votes from Oregon. I predicted earlier this week a 240,000 Clinton PV in Kentucky and a 70,000 PV for Obama in Oregon. I may have underestimated the Oregon PV--he's doing a bit better than expected in Oregon so far.

Lifelong Democrat, civil rights advocate, former volunteer for Dem candidates. Now Independent.

by BPK80 on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:43:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So... (2.00 / 1)

Clinton's hanging in there in Oregon. With half the votes counted, the margin is 70,000. Her overall popular vote total remains in tact.

I proudly support Barack Obama for President!

by Zeitgeist9000 on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:47:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It's a shame... (none / 0)

...the the nominee isn't decided by popular vote.

I hate that meme more than any other. That Clinton supporters can scream that every state counts, and then in the same breath claim that every single caucus state doesn't count. It's intellectually disgusting.

by DawnG on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:53:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a shame... (none / 0)

I agree. They argue that the number of people who voted in caucuses is not identifiable so what is the estimate used?

Zero.

Intellectually disgusting is the defining trait of Clinton die-hards.

From a Hillary supporter: We laughed as that became our mantra - "Barack can't win!"..... ....."he can go to hell and i'll pay for his way there."

by Cochrane on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:02:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a shame... (none / 0)

I can point you to a disgusting but reasonably accurate estimate of the popular vote with caucus states included.

I proudly support Barack Obama for President!

by Zeitgeist9000 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:03:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

It still doesn't change anything... (none / 0)

...it's about the delegates.

It's ALWAYS been about the delegates.

Until Clinton claimed it wasn't.

But Clinton can not dictate to the democratic party what rules do and do not matter.

by DawnG on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:41:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It still doesn't change anything... (none / 0)

It changes a lot. Much like the specter of Election 2000 hangs as a cloud over the Bush presidency, the symbolic loss will forever taint the Obama nomination.

Superdelegates will probably vote for the candidate du jour, Obama. But if his bid for the white house fails in November, there are going to be a lot of warning signs that will make us wonder, "why didn't we take pause and notice?"

Lifelong Democrat, civil rights advocate, former volunteer for Dem candidates. Now Independent.

by BPK80 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:15:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

the specter of the 2000 election... (none / 0)

...was about delegates as well. (or rather electors).

NO ONE honestly argued that Bush was excempt from being president because he didn't win "the popular vote".

You can argue whether our system is the best system, but that is the system and those are the rules we have. Those are the rules that CLINTON agreed to. She can't go throwing a fit to change the rules just because she's can't win by them.

Popular vote will not determine the nominee. Period. End of story.

by DawnG on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:15:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So... (none / 0)

Yes. I see there's quite a bit of Multnomah County and Lane County outstanding though.

I think Hillary's 250K in Kentucky will be significantly larger than Obama's Oregon lead.

Lifelong Democrat, civil rights advocate, former volunteer for Dem candidates. Now Independent.

by BPK80 on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:55:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The pool is open... (none / 0)

Who will put the first diary up stating that Oregon doesn't matter? What logic (?) will be used? How fast until it hops to the top of the Rec list? And, how long will it rest there?

Any takers?

Capitalization is the difference between "I had to help my uncle Jack off a horse..." and "I had to help my uncle jack off a horse..."

by igottheblues on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:45:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I don't even care so much... (none / 0)

...about this blog in that context.

But I wonder who among the Clinton surrogates will make that claim on television or try and marginalize Oregon for no other reason than because Clinton didn't win it.

Although I do wonder why this can be so disconnected from clinton's stance that "every state counts" when she's been marginalizing Obama victories since the very beginning.

by DawnG on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:55:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Oregon matters (none / 0)

but it would be democratic regardless of who was the nom.

by searchforsolidarity on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:08:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oregon matters (none / 0)

Dont take Oregon for granted, as anyone who has actually lived there (and lived through the vicious left/right battles and the many, many disappointments) will tell you. In 2000, Gore only beat Bush by half a percentage point.

by odum on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:24:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

who's going to argue that Oregon doesn't count? (none / 0)

Pat Buchanan already did on MSNBC. Eugene Robinson corrected him by pointing out that it's a state like all the others.

Anybody's vote is worth having. But not everybody's vote is worth campaigning for.

by Freespeechzone on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:14:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama doing poorly in rural areas (2.00 / 1)

Obama will win based on his strength in Eugene and Portland. The rural areas are indeed going for Hillary, with some exceptions to be sure. But we seem to have completely reversed Nevada, where Hillary won based on her strength in Las Vegas/Clark County and Obama showed strength in the northern parts of the state.

99% perspiration

by DaveOinSF on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:46:32 PM EST

Re: Obama doing poorly in rural areas (none / 0)

Have we reversed that trend? How many Hispanics are there in Las Vegas as compared to Portland? I'd guess Vegas is 30-40% Hispanic. I'd guess Portland is 5% Hispanic.

by mikes101 on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:50:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

look again (none / 0)

he's carrying a bunch of rural counties

he's carrying Wallowa, for example

and according to the exit poll, white women split 50-49.

"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!

by Al Rodgers on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:58:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: look again (none / 0)

Funny how you and Jonathan are holding up Curry and Wallowa as two examples of rural counties where Obama is doing well. Wallowa and especially Curry have significant populations of urban liberal refugees - smaller versions of Mendocino County, for example.

99% perspiration

by DaveOinSF on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:09:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

yup - Obama is losing the counties he's winning (none / 0)

"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!

by Al Rodgers on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:41:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

exit poll - rural areas 49-48 (none / 0)

"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!

by Al Rodgers on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:59:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: exit poll - rural areas 49-48 (none / 0)

I'm curious...do they count Jackson County as part of "rural" Oregon?

99% perspiration

by DaveOinSF on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:17:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

they didn't break it down my county (none / 0)

here's the link

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primari es/results/epolls/#ORDEM

"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!

by Al Rodgers on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:39:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama doing poorly in rural areas (none / 0)

I've heard the opposite; that Obama is winning everywhere in OR.

Anybody's vote is worth having. But not everybody's vote is worth campaigning for.

by Freespeechzone on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:15:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama doing poorly in rural areas (none / 0)

99% perspiration

by DaveOinSF on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:20:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama doing poorly in rural areas (none / 0)

Looks like a split of the rural counties.

Anybody's vote is worth having. But not everybody's vote is worth campaigning for.

by Freespeechzone on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:58:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama OBVIOUSLY is losing the counties he's winnin (none / 0)

"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!

by Al Rodgers on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:40:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama OBVIOUSLY is losing (none / 0)

It's SO not worth debating.

Anybody's vote is worth having. But not everybody's vote is worth campaigning for.

by Freespeechzone on Wed May 21, 2008 at 02:01:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama OBVIOUSLY is losing (none / 0)

Let's give a few examples. Obama loses Lake County 325-280, Sherman 156-115, Malheur 837-706, Harney 355-351, hardly overwhelming losses.

by skywaker9 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 02:52:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama OBVIOUSLY is losing (none / 0)

Anybody's vote is worth having. But not everybody's vote is worth campaigning for.

by Freespeechzone on Wed May 21, 2008 at 02:57:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oregon Primary Results Thread (2.00 / 2)

Obama's road to the electoral victory is such a dream... We are so doomed if Hillary does not get this nomination guys. Face it, the demographics are just not in his favor to get to 270 without OH or FL. Please save your VA dream's for 2012 because "good o' dixie" will come out in full force plus the Vet's will vote for McSain.... Georgia.... Yeah when the chicken's come home to roost and CO and IA are not enough to get him to the finish line... Face the FACTS.... Hillary WINS FLORIDA AND OHIO walking away.....
Truth hurts huh???

by nzubechukwu on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:48:50 PM EST

Is that snark? (none / 0)

It's getting hard to tell it apart from.... wishful thinking.

Mark McKinnon quits McCain campaign

John McCain's chief media adviser said Tuesday he is stepping down rather than campaign against Barack Obama.

Mark McKinnon said last year that he would leave McCain's campaign after the primary season if the Arizona senator were to run against Obama.

The Illinois senator is not the Democratic nominee, but he has accumulated a significant lead in the number of delegates required to claim the nomination.

In a 2007 interview with Cox News, McKinnon said he would vote for McCain, but "I just don't want to work against an Obama candidacy." He added that if Obama were to reach the White House, it "would send a great message to the country and the world."

Motley Moose, Troll Free Blogging

by chrisblask on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:55:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oregon Primary Results Thread (none / 0)

hillary supporters must REALLY have trouble with math.

Obama can EASILY win without Ohio and Florida. He has to win the Kerry states plus IA, NM, and NV, and he has 275. These are all states that he leads comfortably in. He doesn't need to win MO, FL, OH, KY, etc. Any other states are bonuses. All he needs is IA, NM, and NV.

If he gets OH, that's great! But, he doesn't need it! I think he WILL win OH anyways... Governor Strckland will see to that.

Latest Rasmussen poling has him up 7 points over McCain in PA, so he's safe there... and beating McCain easily in MI... so, don't worry... you don't need to steal the nomination from the pledged delegate leader.

It profits a PUMA nothing to give their soul for the whole world... but for McCain? --Sir Thomas More (if he were here now)

by LordMike on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:56:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oregon Primary Results Thread (none / 0)

I'm a Hillary supporter that is familiar with the electoral math. It is possible for Obama to win; it's just a lot harder

"All he needs is IA, NM, and NV."

Well he also needs to hold onto PA, MI, WI, DE, and New Hampshire (not likely). If any link in that chain breaks, he has little elsewhere to look for insurance. Colorado? Okay, granted as a possibility. Barack has to piece together a precise combination of winning just about every state in his chain and the whole chain falls apart if one of the links break.

Obama supporters can reasonably make a case that it's possible for Obama to win. But anyone who understands the map (or even similar strategies like chess) sees how much of an uphill climb this "perfect chain" of states is v. the sheer amount of latitude Hillary has to withstand a few losses.

Lifelong Democrat, civil rights advocate, former volunteer for Dem candidates. Now Independent.

by BPK80 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:35:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama leads McSame by 17 pts in Penn (none / 0)

ouch!

"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!

by Al Rodgers on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:43:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama leads McSame by 17 pts in Penn (none / 0)

Ouch? That doesn't hurt me. I'm a Democrat and I live in Pennsylvania. Why would I want McCain to win my home state?

rolls eyes

Lifelong Democrat, civil rights advocate, former volunteer for Dem candidates. Now Independent.

by BPK80 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 02:30:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

you wave the white flag (none / 0)

► you wave the white flag by changing the subject and erecting a straw man.

"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!

by Al Rodgers on Wed May 21, 2008 at 04:14:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: you wave the white flag (2.00 / 1)

OMG seriously.

I think you just like trying to get a rise out of me. I would ignore you but sometimes you are goodhumored and fun.

Lifelong Democrat, civil rights advocate, former volunteer for Dem candidates. Now Independent.

by BPK80 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 06:16:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oregon Primary Results Thread (none / 0)

Hillary has very little latitude for losses as well.

If she loses FL and MI, she's toast.

Obama can build enough of a coalition to bleed GOP electoral votes...such as CO, NV, IA, NM, VA, and MO, all of which voted GOP in 2004.

Clinton can't do that. With Clinton, we simply have to hope she holds to what she has today...but the election is months away.

Not to mention that Clinton has already told us that she'd toss several states overboard that Obama could make competitive.

by southernman on Wed May 21, 2008 at 02:09:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

something is only true... (none / 0)

...until it is no longer true.

By your logic Kerry should have won in '04.
It's still a long time til november. It is an exercise in futility to argue election results based on TODAY's polling (which obama does pretty well in btw)

by DawnG on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:57:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

AAAHHH (2.00 / 2)

PLEASE DON'T HURT ME, SCARY RACIST AMERICANS! I PROMISE I'LL DO WHAT YOU WANT!

Face the facts, we decided on the black guy. Fight for him or go away

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:08:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama's road is such a dream (2.00 / 1)

He isn't the first to have a dream. Dreaming is often the first step toward creating a new reality.

Or did you mean it's a FAIRY TALE?

Anybody's vote is worth having. But not everybody's vote is worth campaigning for.

by Freespeechzone on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:17:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oregon Primary Results Thread (none / 0)

It profits a PUMA nothing to give their soul for the whole world... but for McCain? --Sir Thomas More (if he were here now)

by LordMike on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:49:53 PM EST

Re: Oregon Primary Results Thread (none / 0)

Ooops! Hit the post button by mistake!

It profits a PUMA nothing to give their soul for the whole world... but for McCain? --Sir Thomas More (if he were here now)

by LordMike on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:50:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

don't forget she won 250000 more in KY (none / 0)

Welcome to a Landslide without white Working class, Latinos, Women, Seniors and holding-on sweeties

by engels on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:56:00 PM EST

Which means? (none / 0)

That she gets a free toaster or something?

Seriously, this doesn't have an effect on the outcome. If it did, you'd see supers flocking to her. They aren't. They're starting to flee.

Look, Hillary is a bright lady. She knows it's over but she'd doing what she has to do to recoup her losses.

Obama 2008!

by lollydee on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:47:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oregon Primary Results Thread (none / 0)

... don't forget Kentucky has more electoral votes than Oregon in November.

sigh! poor people lost to rich (elitist) voters in Oregon.

by SHIBAM8P on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:58:08 PM EST

I;m going snarkblind (none / 0)

or there just isn't much difference in content between snark and the statements of a certain demographic.

-chris

Motley Moose, Troll Free Blogging

by chrisblask on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:02:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oregon Primary Results Thread (none / 0)

According to the United States Census Bureau, the median income for people living in Oregon is $40,916. $33,672 for those in Kentucky.

So much for that argument.

John McCain smells like mothballs.

by asherrem on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:03:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oregon Primary Results Thread (2.00 / 1)

Yes, those dairy farmers are so elitist.. What? The average incomes of Oregonians is LESS than Kentuckians? What That can't be? they are so rich and overeducated and urban!

Except, they are not... the vast majority of the state is rural... more rural than even Kentucky... and vast majority of the population are farmers who are just as dirt poor as any other farmer in the hills of KY.

So, stop with your insults about "elitists"... until this year, I never expected democrats to denigrate the educated. It is beyond insulting and incredibly hurtful for people who have been beaten up since they were smart kids in school and then as adults in a republican dominated society that hates education and learning.

There once was a time where being educated was a virtue. I guess that went out the window when GW was elected. No wonder this country is going down the tubes. We spit on the educated folk. Shouldn't we be looking up to them instead?

It profits a PUMA nothing to give their soul for the whole world... but for McCain? --Sir Thomas More (if he were here now)

by LordMike on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:08:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oregon Primary Results Thread (2.00 / 1)

The worst thing Hillary and her campaign have done is to use GOP wedge tactics and introduce their demented lingo into the Democratic lexicon.

Anybody's vote is worth having. But not everybody's vote is worth campaigning for.

by Freespeechzone on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:21:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Actually... (none / 0)

The worst thing Obama and his campaign have done is to use GOP wedge tactics and introduce their demented lingo into the Democratic lexicon.

On to the Convention Floor!

by oh puhleeze on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:28:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Will the owner of the parrot (2.00 / 0)

give it a cracker?

Anybody's vote is worth having. But not everybody's vote is worth campaigning for.

by Freespeechzone on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:50:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Those damn elitist (2.00 / 0)

latte-sipping rich elitist in Wallowa County.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:10:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oregon Primary Results Thread (none / 0)

i'm trying to find exit poll data on KWG and not finding it. Do you mind providing a link?

by searchforsolidarity on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:05:45 AM EST

Re: Oregon Primary Results Thread (none / 0)

It doesn't look like Obama does beat Hillary in the rural counties unless Jackson county is considered rural? They certainly have a lot of voters to be considered as such.

It's just that rural voters are outnumbered so much by those in Portland.

by searchforsolidarity on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:19:45 AM EST

Re: Oregon Primary Results Thread (none / 0)

It doesn't look like Obama does beat Hillary in the rural counties unless Jackson county is considered rural? They certainly have a lot of voters to be considered as such.

It's just that rural voters are outnumbered so much by those in Portland.

by searchforsolidarity on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:19:56 AM EST

Re: Oregon Primary Results Thread (none / 0)

Jackson is rural, trust me on that. There aren't many voters out there in the rural counties for Ds. Frankly he's losing even the counties he's losing by 1-2% usually.

by skywaker9 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 02:49:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Has anyone else noticed (none / 0)

McCain is getting more votes than Hillary in Oregon?

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:22:29 AM EST

Re: Oregon Primary Results Thread (none / 0)

Obama, Clinton supporters both say Clinton attacking unfairly, CNN Poll

Interesting statistic:

(CNN) -- Even in a state Hillary Clinton appears to have won by 35 points, a majority of Kentucky voters say the New York senator attacked Barack Obama unfairly.

According to the exit polls, 54 percent of voters said Clinton launched unfair attacks on Obama, though that didn't seem to deter voters there from supporting Clinton -- 55 percent of those who said Clinton attacked unfairly still voted for the New York senator.

Clinton faced a similar statistic in West Virginia last week. There she won by 41 points, but nearly 60 percent of voters said she made unfair attacks against the Illinois senator.

The public - even Clinton voters - disagrees with a certain MyDD demographic.

-chris

Motley Moose, Troll Free Blogging

by chrisblask on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:48:36 AM EST

kentucky exit polls (none / 0)

here's the poll itself

Did Clinton Attack Unfairly?
Yes(54%)
No (43%)

Did Obama Attack Unfairly?
Yes (49%)
No (48%)

Which Candidate Attacked Unfairly?
Only Clinton (15%)
Only Obama (9%)
Both (39%)
Neither (34%)

link

We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are. -Anais Nin

by dubhe on Wed May 21, 2008 at 02:19:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: kentucky exit polls (none / 0)

All that really shows is that voters don't really care about who attacked who. If they say Clinton was the attack-dog and instigator but they voted for her anyway... well, the conclusion is obvious.

Lifelong Democrat, civil rights advocate, former volunteer for Dem candidates. Now Independent.

by BPK80 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 02:32:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oregon Primary Results Thread (none / 0)

Dude, you got toasted by dubhe.

What is it with Obama supporters that, for all the "hope and change", it's really all about resentment?

by killjoy on Wed May 21, 2008 at 03:16:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oregon Primary Results Thread (none / 0)

Guess is 31-21 split. He's just short of a statewide break point and one in CD 5.

by skywaker9 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 02:48:01 AM EST

CNN updated (none / 0)

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primari es/results/state/#OR

at 95% in to 59-41. The statewide break was at 58.33%, he should clear it.

by Rorgg on Wed May 21, 2008 at 02:42:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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