Breaking: Early Exits Show Division!

Yes, the title is meant to be sarcastic. While the media will inevitably frame the division found within the early exit polls out of Oregon and Kentucky released today as "Democrats divided," (in fact, they already are) what we're seeing is actually a nation divided -- the stark differences that exist between the voters in two very different parts of the country.

In Kentucky:

In Kentucky, just 33 percent of Clinton voters said they would back Obama in the general election if he is the Democratic nominee - 41 percent said they will vote for McCain, and another 23 percent say they won't vote.

Meanwhile, in Oregon:

Oregon voters felt differently on that question, according to the exit poll. A majority of Clinton and Obama voters in the state would be satisfied if their opponent got the nomination. And 68 percent of Clinton voters say they will back Obama in the general election if he is the nominee and 80 percent of Obama voters say they will back Clinton in the general election.

Last week, the media's narrative had no counterbalance or context to it since WV was the only contest, so they merely projected the West Virginia results onto the the nation as a whole; tonight, thank goodness, the media will have Oregon to serve as a reality check.



Display:


Re: So here's my question (none / 0)

What else.


I'm as strong as a bull moose, and you can use me to the limit. - Teddy Roosevelt
by fogiv on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:38:06 PM EST

Re: Breaking: Early Exits Show Division! (none / 0)

Hmmmm.....

I'm just sitting here in Oregon minding my own business waiting for the results to come in.  

I'll let all y'alls from Kentucky chime in on this one.


by Rick in Eugene on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:41:47 PM EST

Re: Breaking: Early Exits Show Division! (none / 0)

Anyone watching MSNBC and catch the difference of opinion between OR and KY on the gas tax holiday?

Interesting.


I'm as strong as a bull moose, and you can use me to the limit. - Teddy Roosevelt
by fogiv on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:43:46 PM EST

Re: Breaking: Early Exits Show Division! (none / 0)

...per the exit polling, that is.  Sorry, should have been more clear.  It's like I'm sitting here talking to myself.  Well, I know what I meant...  :)


I'm as strong as a bull moose, and you can use me to the limit. - Teddy Roosevelt
by fogiv on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:45:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Breaking: Early Exits Show Division! (2.00 / 1)

I'm curious how gas prices compare between the two...


by nwodtuhs on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:45:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Breaking: Early Exits Show Division! (2.00 / 1)

Me too.  So I checked here:

         KENTUCKY     OREGON

Regular:   $3.793      $3.824      
Mid:       $4.067      $4.035
Premium:   $4.251      $4.095
Diesel:    $4.417      $4.591

On average, fuel costs more in OR, so it seems unlikey that "hardship" alone is driving those KY numbers up.


I'm as strong as a bull moose, and you can use me to the limit. - Teddy Roosevelt
by fogiv on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:04:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Environmentalism is the likely factor (2.00 / 1)


by JJE on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:11:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Environmentalism is the likely factor (none / 0)

I think you're onto something there, but moaybe education level is a factor as well.


I'm as strong as a bull moose, and you can use me to the limit. - Teddy Roosevelt
by fogiv on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:47:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Breaking: Early Exits Show Division! (2.00 / 1)

For whatever it's worth, Oregon, Portland especially, is pretty forward-looking as it comes to transit.  Portland is a model for smaller cities looking to implement a comprehensive and attractive mass transit option.  Down here in LA, we keep sending local officials up to Portland to "investigate" their Light Rail and also their modern European-style streetcar system.  Offhand it's probably the smallest city where one could credibly live car-free without being laughed at.


by auronrenouille on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:23:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Breaking: Early Exits Show Division! (none / 0)

Yep.  I travel to PDX frequently (my environmental consulting company has an office downtown) and can affirm that Portland has one of the best public transportation systems I've ever seen.


I'm as strong as a bull moose, and you can use me to the limit. - Teddy Roosevelt
by fogiv on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:52:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I Hate Exit Polls. (none / 0)

Blue haired women with blue eyes, who went to community college and have 1.5 children, with an income of less than X voted for so and so.

Whereas brown haired women who sleep less than six hours with 4 children voted for X.

There is clear division here.

Let's draw a bunch of bright red lines and tell people what to think.


overthrow the government~participate
by missliberties on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:55:38 PM EST

Re: So here's my question (2.00 / 1)

Race plays an issue in Kentucky and other Appalachian states more than it does out West; this is a simple truth that a lot of people need to stop ignoring. And before you go apeshit, Clinton supporters, I lived half of my life in "Appalachia," and feel that my experiences there validate the judgments I make in this post.

However, I think Obama's image also has something to with it. He's been inaccurately painted by Clinton and others as a big scary latte-sipping liberal--in other words, someone who "don't get it"--and with this demographic, that means a lot more than his skin color ever will. They perceive him as being out of touch with reality.

In fact, I'd argue that anyone who is presented, no matter how questionably, as living a lifestyle with any perceived "abnormalities" (read: instances of being "different") would find themselves in Obama's situation. As lovable as 'Appalachians' might be, they can be infuriatingly narrow-minded about other cultures and lifestyles (God, how many times have I been called a "city boy" just because of my accent?)--and this is another simple truth that people around here need to acknowledge.


by Covin on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:59:11 PM EST

Re: So here's my question (none / 0)

la la la la la la la la la la la la (with eyes closed and fingers in ears)


by citizendave on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:05:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So here's my question (2.00 / 2)

i think its the thing that we're not supposed to talk about because then they start talking about the other thing that we're not supposed to talk about and then the discussion gets heated and someone brings up starbucks and volvos and someone else "old ladies" then "young slackers" on and on and on.

(".....but i know why kentucky polls so different than oregon".......whispers citizendave)  but i won't mention it here.


by citizendave on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:01:14 PM EST

Re: Breaking: Early Exits Show Division! (2.00 / 1)

I am still struck in both state's exit polls by the number of Clinton supporters who won't vote Obama (higher) as opposed to the number of Obama (lower) supports who would vote for Hillary.

Is it truly more important to elect a woman than to elect a Democrat?


Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.
by jsfox on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:01:23 PM EST

Re: Breaking: Early Exits Show Division! (none / 0)

I know.  Those numbers baffle me every time.


I'm as strong as a bull moose, and you can use me to the limit. - Teddy Roosevelt
by fogiv on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:05:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Breaking: Early Exits Show Division! (none / 0)

depends what color that woman is.

damn! you made me say it! and i was trying so hard not to!


by citizendave on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:09:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Clinton doesn't appear very effective (none / 0)

at convincing her supporters to vote for the Democrat nominee regardless.
by JJE on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:08:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton doesn't appear very effective (none / 0)

Don't blame her. Obama paid lip service to unity but in fact ran the most divisive primary in my lifetime.

I've been voting since 1972 and never, ever considered not voting for the Democratic nominee before now. But then, though there have been a number of Democratic nominees that I thought were losers, there's never been one of whom my opinion was this low before.

I started off on the fence after Edwards dropped out. I didn't decide to vote for Clinton until I was in the voting booth, and I was holding my nose when I did it. But my respect for and confidence in her has grown enormously, while my opinion of him has gone drastically down. At this point I both actively dislike him and fear for the future of the party. It only remains to be seen how I feel in November - I couldn't say now. I think many Clinton supporters feel the same way.


by denise b on Tue May 20, 2008 at 10:19:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I don't think it was that bad. (none / 0)

Obama was tough at times, as was Hillary, but this campaign was rather mild on both sides. For example, Hillary didn't hit Wright nearly as hard as she could have nor did Obama make a huge deal out of Tuzla. Neither of them put out hit ads about those topics, for example.
by JJE on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:10:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

it's not all about gender! (2.00 / 2)

Cripes.  Why do folks automatically assume that Clinton's support is solely based in gender?  

I've been out there for awhile (with a fair share of other concerned posters) trying to emphasize that for "Reagan Democrats" it's a shorter leap from Clinton to McCain than it is from Clinton to Obama.  And while race may PARTIALLY be an issue, gender certainly isn't because last time I looked McCain was sort of a man.

There are a number of reasons for that shorter leap beyond "racism"
1. identity politics -- McCain just seems "more like me" to some Reagan Democrats than Obama and it's not all skin color
 -- Obama has allowed himself to be defined as an "urban Northern academic liberal" (aka "elitist") and many working class voters have a strong aversion to UNALs..like Dukakis, Kerry...
-- the whole "foreign father/foreign name/grew up somewhere where they can't grow corn" image.  The average low information voter can't find anything to relate there and it's not about Muslim names or black skin...it's about "just can't imagine him growing up like I did"
go ahead and scream bloody murder about how backwards, unfair or untrue this line of thinking is, but, sorry, the low-info voters aren't listening.

2. Tough on foreign affairs.  
--Obama spent way too much energy pounding the "never voted for the war" drum, ignoring the sad fact that 70% of the country wanted the f-ing war THEN, they just don't want it now.  These are the same folks who still have shadows all over their beaters from their "support our troops" decals, remember?  He worked his base too long and hard and in the process may have lost the middle.
--won't be "tough" with terrorists and dictators.  I'm not worried about Obama's "toughness" but I'd bet alot of low info voters are.  It's hard to imagine him kicking ass and taking names. (imagine Dukakis again, sorry)

3. Unknown commodity.
the average low-info voter KNOWS both Clinton and McCain -- Clinton the tough talker with the spine of steel through the Monica nightmare, McCain the "straight talker" -- they've been in their faces for over a decade each.  Obama?  Most folks first heard of him a few months ago, he has some scary preacher/friend, beyond that, who the hell is he?  

4. Race.  But not only in the "I'd never vote for a" way, because I'd bet the majority of low-info voters would leap on Colin Powell.  Unfortunately, the accusations of racism against the Clintons are going to backfire hard with the white working class.  Many of them PRIDE themselves on having gotten past the racism of their parents and upbring and take a certain offense to the suggestion that saying something the wrong way negates a lifetime of working at not being prejudiced.  

5. "Clinging to guns and religion".  That one is NEVER going away in the minds of working class voters.  It reinforced the "liberal elitist snob" image and people don't vote for someone they think looks down their nose at them.

As long as liberals keep making liberal arguments in the attempt to persuade middle of the road voters they are going to lose.  The country is not as partisan as we think either, so it's no big "treason" for a Democratic primary voter to go GOP in the fall.  And chocking it all up to "racism" is the single most fuck dumb way to lose this election I can imagine.


Sexism is real.
by grassrootsorganizer on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:39:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: it's not all about gender! (none / 0)

though i don't agree with you 100%....some good points....and i like your style.

but the mojo is for "fuck dumb"!


by citizendave on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:57:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Blame it on the Coal Companies (none / 0)

Perhaps people in Kentucky have been poisoned by all the coal mining that has gone on there.  Try driving through Floyd County, for example, and just look at what the coal companies have wrought.  I certainly wouldn't want to drink the water or breath the air there.  


by kaleidescope on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:36:04 PM EST

Re: Blame it on the Coal Companies (2.00 / 1)

If this is the kind of territory John Grisham was talking about, then it is poor people voting again for the wealthy. They live poor and vote rich, as he put it.


Click on Peace, Propaganda, & The Promised Land and learn the truth about the I/P conflict.
by shergald on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:01:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Breaking: Early Exits Show Division! (2.00 / 1)

No time here for romancing this issue: racism is still an important variable in presidential elections, and in that sense, nothing has changed since Reagan's antiBlack campaign of 1980 and all of the northern backlash Democrats decided to go with him. Yes, the Reagan Democrats.

The only issue today is not whether it exists, but just how big is it.

There's no turning back at this point. Obama is our candidate, and if some bigots want to go for his opponent on the basis of race, let them.


Click on Peace, Propaganda, & The Promised Land and learn the truth about the I/P conflict.
by shergald on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:00:02 PM EST

The saddest thing that could happen here (none / 0)

is for the Left to walk away from a POSSIBLE Obama loss in November saying "the country just isn't ready for a black president".

Obama has done a stunning historic job of coming out of nowhere to build an amazing energized base of support.  But it remains to be seen if he can switch gears well enough to grab the middle and hold it until November.  He may have won the battle but in his methods cost us the war.  

I KNOW SHE WON'T GET THE NOMINATION, but Clinton has actually done a far better job of using the primary season to set herself up for a strong run in the fall.  She's defined herself in a way that appeals to the masses and the coalition she could have taken into November could have squashed McCain like an ant.  She would have offered a less dramatic choice for folks between herself and McCain -- both familiar names, both seeemingly "tough" on foreign policy, both appearling more middle of the road -- so it could have come down to "who has more in common with GWB."

The gulf between Obama and McCain is far wider and demands a concerted choice from the voter -- a willingness to accept a complete unknown that seems foreign to them, and entity impossible to well pigeon hole.  From the beginning I've been saying, sure the average American is hungry for Change, the question is..how much change are they in the mood for.  We may have grossly overestimated the desire for radical change because, like always, liberals assume everyone should think like them and if they don't they can be educated into liberal ideology.

When it comes to the average working class American shit like lapel pins, crazy preachers and not growing up like Beaver Cleaver matters.  So does sounding like a college professor and not a cowboy.


Sexism is real.
by grassrootsorganizer on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:56:32 PM EST

Re: Breaking: Early Exits Show Division! (none / 0)

A lot of this has to do with racism. Kentucky, Mississippi, West Virginia, Tennessee, and others states in the South will trend towards Hillary in the White vote. Things are better but it seems that 30-50% of White voters in these states will not vote for Obama.

We will have to do without them. It is time to move this country fordward.

Race is a bigger issue than gender as you can plainly see.


Obama 08!
by comingawakening on Tue May 20, 2008 at 09:18:04 PM EST

Re: Breaking: Early Exits Show Division! (none / 0)

What's the difference between Oregon and Kentucky?

Simple.

People from Oregon are reasonable and intelligent.

People from Kentucky are stubborn and dumb.

It's not "racism" as such, or being opposed to "elitism."  Most of the people against Obama don't even know why they are against Obama.  Or, they are operating on rumor and innuendo which is utterly detached from reality.

This is not me guessing or casting aspersions.  This comes from watching actual Democratic voters from West Virigina who were dumb enough to allow themselves to be interviewed on television.

They revealed themselves in those interviews.   Ignorant.  Not dumb (or not just dumb), but ignorant.  As in, ignoring facts.  To their own detriment.  I say, forget them.  


Peace, S.
by Reluctantpopstar on Tue May 20, 2008 at 09:50:51 PM EST

Re: Breaking: Early Exits Show Division! (none / 0)

Yes, this is you casting aspersions. Keep it up - declare yourself and your cohorts superior - lose the election. Typical Democratic losing strategy.


by denise b on Tue May 20, 2008 at 10:25:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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