MyDD :: Zogby, IN, NH, London, UK,

Zogby, IN, NH, London, UK,

by Jerome Armstrong, Fri May 02, 2008 at 09:54:18 AM EST

Here's an interesting post on predicting NC based on demographics of previous contests.
Yesterday's polls were all Clinton. It was probably one of her best poll days in a long time. Today, the Obama supporters get a bit of relief with a poll by Zogby. I take some heat here for saying that I like Zogby, but I do-- his final poll. Before that, it's usually crap. Even in PA, just 2 days prior to the voting, Zogby had a single-day in which he touted that Obama was up 46-44. Two days later, and he had the final margin correct, showing Clinton up 51-41. He's good, usually, at showing late breaking numbers. True, he did fail mightily in CA, but his reason, that he counted on Obama turning out more of the African American vote, seemed valid at the time, following up on SC's vote. With that, here's his first numbers from NC & IN:
```
           North Carolina
Obama      50
Clinton    34
Other      16

           Indiana
Clinton    42
Obama      42
Other      16
```
This alone defies expectations:
After getting clobbered among Catholics in Pennsylvania nearly two weeks ago, Obama wins 41% support from Indiana Catholics, compared to 40% who support Clinton. Conversely, Clinton leads among Protestants by six points after having lost among them in Pennsylvania.
"Downs Center", whatever that is, has a IN poll out showing Clinton up by 7 percent:
```
           Indiana
Clinton    52
Obama      45
```
Jeanne Shaheen looks great in New Hampshire. Rasmussen has the latest numbers:
```
           New Hampshire
Shaheen    51
Sununu     43
```
My counter has us picking up 4 seats in the Senate, VA, CO, NM, NH. I'd like to think there are a number of other map extensions, and that we just have 2 seats that are vulnerable, in LA and NJ.
Over in the UK, the London mayoral results will be announced shortly. It looks like the buffoon, conservative Boris Johnson, will be the next London Mayor, barring a shocking comeback by Ken Livingston. Nationally, BBC projected its National Shares as:
```
Conservative       44
Liberal Democrat   25
Labour             24 
```
The Conservatives have shellacked Labour, but the Liberal Democrats also picked up seats. Here are the results thus far. While over in London a few weeks ago, I was able to go to parliament and watch Labour rollout their Budget proposal, and observe the follow through in media coverage. I was not impressed by the Labour leaders behind Gordon Brown, or their skill of presenting the budget, and am not surprised that the Conservatives, led by David Cameron, are beating their socks off. I listened to Gordon Brown's speech while he was here in the US, and it was pretty good, except for his embrace of Bush in GWOT, but overall, Labour seems tired and out of touch. The Liberal Democrats have a big opening in the UK, in the 2009 election, maybe even to become the main opposition to the Conservative Party the way this is heading.

Tags: 2008 election (all tags)

Permalink :: 36 Comments :: Post a Comment

It's important for Zogby (2.00 / 1)

that someone like him. You're a good man, Jerome Armstrong, doing the heavy lifting this morning.

Our long national nightmare is over.

by Beltway Dem on Fri May 02, 2008 at 09:59:10 AM EST

Re: Zogby, NH, London, UK, (none / 0)

Labour finishing in third place!
It's going to take a lot for the Liberal Dems to
supplant Labour, but it's barely possible. A shame for London, but Labour's woes were too much to overcome.

As for PA, I thought Zogby had Clinton ahead throughout, except maybe for his first release.
And the result in NC is all about the AA turnout, which isn't good for Clinton.

by mikelow1885 on Fri May 02, 2008 at 10:04:27 AM EST

Re: Zogby, NH, London, UK, (none / 0)

Zogby did iirc, it was a single day polling.

by Jerome Armstrong on Fri May 02, 2008 at 10:06:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby, NH, London, UK, (none / 0)

For what it's worth, I'm an Obama supporter, and I don't think he's going to win Indiana. Worst case, I could see him losing by (gulp) 10. Best case would be a 2 point win. Probably ends up more like a 5 point win for Hillary.

I am pretty optimistic about North Carolina, though. I think he will win it by 8+, though I could see him winning by as little as 5 or as much as 12.

What does everyone else expect?

by ProgressiveDL on Fri May 02, 2008 at 10:10:13 AM EST

Re: Zogby, NH, London, UK, (none / 0)

My expectation is that they split the states.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Fri May 02, 2008 at 10:20:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I am still going with it (none / 0)

Indiana: Obama by 4
NC: Obama by 7

-- be excellent to each other

by kindthoughts on Fri May 02, 2008 at 11:36:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby, NH, London, UK, (none / 0)

I, too, support Obama. I'm feeling a bit pessimistic as I think the main stream media narrative and the issue of momentum will continue to flow in Hillary's direction for the next few days. I see a 10% win in Indiana for Hillary and a 2% win for Obama in North Carolina.

Ironically, the msm seems to be suggesting that super delegates are closing ranks around Obama. Is their thinking that if they don't close ranks now, then the momentum increases for Hillary and they'll find themselves in an even worse pickle come June? If so, shouldn't they have acted weeks ago?

Personally, I think the issue of electability is a red-herring and that if the democratic party rallied around conveying Obama's message and countering the laughable notion that he's more of an elitist than HRC or JM, we'd be in a good situation. I'm frustrated with the fact that many HRC supporters seem to base their vote on her electability rather than her potential to improve the country! The gas tax is a perfect example. It demonstrates an ability to get elected, but not an ability to govern. So, Jerome, et al, vote for HRC because she'd be the best president, not because of specious extrapolations regarding electability.

by chrispy on Fri May 02, 2008 at 10:27:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby, NH, London, UK, (none / 0)

His internals have him up 3 in Indiana and up 10 in North Carolina. Watch for NW Indiana on Election night. They are trying to run up 60-40+ margins.

by sweet potato pie on Fri May 02, 2008 at 10:59:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby, NH, London, UK, (none / 0)

it's the media's job to make a race out of this thing. It helps their viewersip. Just like it was in their best interests to prop up Obama and knock down Clinton earlier on in this primary. Or how it was convenient that they gave little media attention to Edwards in relation to how much "air time" Obama and Clinton received.

what I find scary is how many people are unaware of these dynamics. The media has an incredible pool on the mood of this country. They changed the Obama could do no wrong narrative in barely a few days with something so abstract.

I wonder how much airtime would have been granted to Hillary's Bosnia lie if she was the front runner?

by alex100 on Fri May 02, 2008 at 11:19:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby, NH, London, UK, (none / 0)

I completely agree. I think the media has been stringing things along in such a way as to drag out this race as long as possible. They tried (unsuccessfully) to do it with the Repubs and Huckabee.

by ProgressiveDL on Fri May 02, 2008 at 11:54:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Zogby isn't good. (none / 0)

But he's not nearly as bad as McCaveman.

John McCain on social security.

by heresjohnny on Fri May 02, 2008 at 10:11:11 AM EST

Re: Zogby, IN, NH, London, UK, (none / 0)

Clinton supporters should take heed with
Labour's big losses in the UK. Labour under Blair and Brown was very similar to the democratic party under the Clintons--very much like the DLC (they called it "New" Labor). People here AND abroad are disgusted with conservative-lite... Hillary is trying to breath new life in a dying political philosophy... Ultimately the people are against it, and it will fail.

People WANT progressive politics, not policies based on fear and war mongering!

"This was never part of our arrangement, Specter" "I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!" "This deal keeps getting worse all the time!"

by LordMike on Fri May 02, 2008 at 10:21:26 AM EST

Re: Zogby, IN, NH, London, UK, (none / 0)

There is no way that Labour has had such a bad night in Britain because they are conservative-lite. They've lost because of the economy and Brown's problems as a dour, dithering and Scottish leader in post-devolution politics. Nothing here to compare with Hillary v Obama.

As for London, this has very little to do with Labour v Conservative. If Ken loses it will be because the Lee Jasper affair demonstrated that he has run City Hall like a personal fiefdom.

by Boz on Fri May 02, 2008 at 10:31:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby, IN, NH, London, UK, (none / 0)

That's right - they also lost because of Labour's continued support of the war in Iraq - Brown said he was going to pull the troops out, but turned around and stopped withdrawals. I lived in the UK for a while and I don't think their Labour Party compares well to our Democratic Party (past or present) - that is a common misconception. If anything, the Democratic party is more multi-faceted and our Democratic leaders views vary much more from each other - our party stretches from conservatives to liberals (hard for some liberals to accept).

by sunnyaz08 on Fri May 02, 2008 at 11:20:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby, IN, NH, London, UK, (none / 0)

Isn't Zogby a super for BO?

by Caldonia on Fri May 02, 2008 at 10:22:11 AM EST

Re: Zogby, IN, NH, London, UK, (none / 0)

No, that's his brother who is head of the Arab American Institute.

by elrod on Fri May 02, 2008 at 10:56:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby, IN, NH, London, UK, (none / 0)

Could be a lot of AA catholics in NC.

by Spanky on Fri May 02, 2008 at 10:27:13 AM EST

Jerome doesn't know much about Indiana Catholics (none / 0)

Chicago has one of the largest Catholic populations in the country, and Obama did quite well with Catholics in Illinois. Given that Northwestern Indiana has the much denser Catholic population, and lies in the Chicago media market, it's really not surprising that Obama would perform well with Catholics.

by noop on Fri May 02, 2008 at 10:35:12 AM EST

Re: Jerome doesn't know much about Indiana Catholi (none / 0)

OK, I'll make a prediction right here that Clinton takes the Catholic vote in Indiana by double-digits.

by Jerome Armstrong on Fri May 02, 2008 at 10:59:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Jerome doesn't know much about Indiana Catholi (none / 0)

So, after claiming that the poll defies expectations you make a prediction that falls entirely in line with the very same poll (given undecideds and margin of error)? That sounds a little like backtracking to me.

Personally, I'm not making predictions either way. However, I do think you should exercise a little objectivity and judgment if you're going to play the demographics game.

by noop on Fri May 02, 2008 at 11:20:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Jerome doesn't know much about Indiana Catholi (none / 0)

haha, was that fun to write? cause I sure as heck don't understand your logic...

by Jerome Armstrong on Fri May 02, 2008 at 11:25:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Jerome doesn't know much about Indiana Catholi (none / 0)

Since we're being snarky now... supporting Clinton at this stage implies a deficiency in basic logic, so I can certainly appreciate the reasons for your confusion.

by noop on Fri May 02, 2008 at 11:38:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Black Catholics (none / 0)

There are also a lot of black catholics.

by sweet potato pie on Fri May 02, 2008 at 11:00:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Understanding religion in Indiana (none / 0)

Indiana is, in many ways, a Southern protrusion into the North. The majority of its citizens trace their roots to Virginians who went through Cumberland Gap around 1800 into Kentucky, and then went over the Ohio River to Indiana. They went to Indiana because land claims were more defendable in township-organized Indiana than they were in KY where the land was largely owned by eastern speculators and surveyors were few and far between. Many of these migrants then went on to Illinois. One of them was Abraham Lincoln. The derogatory term for Virginia hillbilly at the time was "Hoosier," a name still used with pride in Indiana.

As a result, Indiana has the largest white born-again Christian population in the North. More like whites in TN and KY than in OH, PA or northern IL, Indiana white protestants largely resemble conservative white Southerners. Not surprisingly, they would support Clinton over Obama as was the case among white evangelicals in the South.

Catholics in Indiana are concentrated around the Chicago area and South Bend. As such, they are much more like Chicagoans than like Indiana "Hoosiers." It shouldn't be surprising that they vote more like Chicago whites than like Pennsylvania Catholics.

Anyway, I wanted to remind people of the demographics in Indiana because they are very different from PA.

by elrod on Fri May 02, 2008 at 11:01:41 AM EST

Re: New Rasmussen poll (none / 0)

Rasmussen poll just released;

Obama 49
Clinton 40

Zogby. Research 2000 AND rASMUSSEN put Obama's number at 50,51 49

Clinton's is at 34,44, and 40 FOR THE LAST 3 POLL'S.

So far early voting is at 320,000. Obama leads in early voting by 61-38.

My prediction is that Clinton loses by 12 pts.

by BDM on Fri May 02, 2008 at 11:13:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Rasmussen poll (none / 0)

For Rasmussen, that's Clinton closing the gap, from 51-37 earlier this week, to 49-40 last night.... but that's a big early voting margin for Obama.

by Jerome Armstrong on Fri May 02, 2008 at 11:18:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

its like California in reverse hehehe (none / 0)

-- be excellent to each other

by kindthoughts on Fri May 02, 2008 at 11:38:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Rasmussen poll (none / 0)

It may be Clinton closing the gap today, but after this weekend of campaigning and appearing on Meet the Press, Obama will edge up in the polls again. Sorry Jerome, I'm a Hillary supporter, but Obama has the ability to unarm the naysayers. That is why, if he is the nominee, I will be happy to support him. He will easily defeat McSame despite what you and other naysayers want us to believe.

by citizensane on Fri May 02, 2008 at 01:00:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Understanding religion in Indiana (none / 0)

Good stuff, but Catholics have been bedrock throughout the Midwest for Clinton. Even in the state of Illinois, Clinton won the Catholic vote over Obama, 50-47. I'd like to see a good demographic analysis of IN, like we have of the other states.

by Jerome Armstrong on Fri May 02, 2008 at 11:15:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Understanding religion in Indiana (none / 0)

I think they are more like central illinois or southern Illinois catholics. They have nothing in common with the Chicago crowd. In fact they hate them. LOL

You may not agree with What I say but don't forget I am a Democrat

by indydem99 on Fri May 02, 2008 at 11:59:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby, IN, NH, London, UK, (none / 0)

Zogby got the margin in PA, but not the final numbers. His accuracy rate is so-so on most states and he uses unusual polling methods (interactive polling). I'd have to see more polls like them, but the NC number doesn't surprise me - I like Clinton, but I don't think she will win NC. Now on to England...Labour is not very popular anymore so their mayoral candidate had to contend with that, but I would hate to see their numbers in all of the UK if they can't win London.

by sunnyaz08 on Fri May 02, 2008 at 11:13:04 AM EST

Re: Zogby, IN, NH, London, UK, (none / 0)

zogby is awful.

by alex100 on Fri May 02, 2008 at 11:13:34 AM EST

Re: Zogby, IN, NH, London, UK, (none / 0)

Man, this is why (on the question I asked of why Obama's numbers fell after he denounced Wright).

by Jerome Armstrong on Fri May 02, 2008 at 11:23:34 AM EST

Zogby, IN, NH, London, UK, (none / 0)

I think the results of the mayor's race and for London's assembly will be announced at 8:30 local time so that's 3:30 eastern. Hopefully Livingston pulled this one out again. He's done the impossible before, so...

Also, looks like the LibDems picked up the council in Sheffield, a part of which their leader Nick Clegg represents in Parliament.

by swimmercrat on Fri May 02, 2008 at 12:20:58 PM EST

Re: Zogby, IN, NH, London, UK, (none / 0)

Obama can survive an 8 point loss in IN, so long as he wins by double digits in NC.
If he keeps it within 4 in IN, he blunts Clinton's momentum, and obviously, if he wins both, she should be done, and there should be a tsunami of SD support coming to him.

by megaplayboy on Fri May 02, 2008 at 01:28:42 PM EST

Re: Zogby, IN, NH, London, UK, (none / 0)

I have been baffled for years now at why the LibDems haven't been picking up more support as Labour bleeds it away; I mean, they're like Labour without the albatross of Iraq — what's not to like? And who is going to chuck the Labour party in disgust and go over to the Tories? What could they offer besides all of the really juicy sex scandals?*

Plus, since they haven't actually gotten the opportunity to govern, the LibDems also haven't been forced to piss off their constituents by making any of those "no-win" judgments that come with the responsibility for running a major modern country.

As near as I can figure, the main reason would be that Labour and the Conservatives both have strong regional pockets of support, whereas the LibDem base is spread more or less evenly across the country; so they run second everywhere, but don't run first in nearly enough districts.

Of course, this means that at some point, they could reach a threshold or sorts, and suddenly flip scores of seats at once.

Oh, and I'll believe Red Ken is out when I see it with my own eyes, not before; and if he does lose, he'll win the Mayoralty back next time — Londoners seem to like him even more once he's been away for a while.

* Seriously — David Vitter in the diaper? That would barely scrape by with an O-level in the great school of Conservative Party sex scandals. They've long since advanced to rubber nun outfits and transvestite farm animals in public phone booths.

by Ray Radlein on Fri May 02, 2008 at 03:18:35 PM EST

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