Talks of Obama's demise do seem to be rather hasty, particularly if he performs anywhere near where he's currently polling in NC.

Last 3 NC polls

Obama + 9 - Rasmussen
Obama +11 - ARG
Obama +16 = Zogby

Hillary proponents need to frame the issue as one of an Obama collapse. It's necessary for them at this point.

Hasty and necessary.

She's going to have to poll a lot better than that if she wants to get superdelegates to overturn the elected delegates winner.  I don't know how much better, but I can't see any way they would be overturning based on this.

In North Carolina I'm tending to discount the movement in the polls just because we don't know how many people have already voted, when the polls tended to give him a much wider margin.  Much like California(I believe it was) where he closed in the polls but they didn't take into account all the people had voted early.

Well, Jonathan, there you go making sense again.  Where do you get off?

;)

Clinton has been running a good race lately (ever since Tuzla).  Obama's numbers have been holding up well against McCain.  To the extent that Clinton has closed the gap with Obama, it seems more accurate to say her stock has been rising, rather than Obama has been falling.

So Clinton's momentum from her PA win and Obama's thrashing in the media over Wright has allowed her to surge all the way into the margin of error.

Not exactly impressive.

If your saw the headline on the post, it says "Gallup confirms the Obama slide". If you read the context of "tanking" it said, "What seems most noticeable about the polling is that Obama didn't start tanking until after he 'denounced' Wright. Why is that?"

ie, the polling. Not "this poll".  So, here's some tank for you:

Looks like a "tanking" to me.

the weekend brings us, aside from 2 hours of frenze over a 15year old video! If he wins NC by only a few points and loses IN big, and that leads into a huge loss in WV, not good! I hope thats what happens! only time will tell, can tuesday be here already!!??

Hillary by 10 points in Indiana??  That would be HUGE! Obama has been ahead there for weeks.  I don't see that happening.  Nor do i see Hillary coming close in North Carolina.  Obama will win N.C. by 9 or 10 points at least.  The demographics favor him.  If Hillary does win Indiana then Obama still can't close the deal and it's on to West Virginia.

President Clinton has been making 6 stops a day in rural NC.

She will win NC in an upset.

Game changer indeed.

Hillary Clinton winning North Carolina would be like Bush winning Massachusetts in the 2004 election.  It ain't gonna happen.  She will be lucky to be within single digits.  Winning Indiana would take a state that Obama was supposed to win.  His own campaign projected they would win Indiana.

When each claims about 50% of the vote, it's hardly surprising.  People should take daily tracking polls showing either candidate with a 5+ point lead with a huge grain of salt.  In June, it will still probably be within the margin of error.

I think his gas tax proposal is giving him a bounce in the polls.

Umm...have you guys seen the new Rasmussen numbers today?  This is why Obama is slipping some in the polls.  58% say Obama denounced the pastor for political convenience.  56% say it's likely that Obama "shares some of pastor Wright's controversial views about the United States.  Only 11% say it's not at all likely. Only 33% of voters believe Obama was surprised by Wright's views.  

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_pres idential_election/58_say_obama_denounced _wright_for_political_convenience_not_ou trage

Right-wing radio has talked about Wright, as well as Michelle's "For the first time I'm proud of America" for months.  MONTHS!

Just because it's not on MSNBC and CNN doesn't mean that it's a non-issue with other groups.

Certainly Obama is damaged. There is no doubt there. The way the campaign is acting certainly confirms it.

The question is just how damaged is he? If there is tons of white flight on Tuesday then it will be pretty obvious that he has some very serious problems.

It sure it tough having two repuglicans agains you! Obama doing amazingly well inspite of the McSame/Clinton siamese Twins.

This "contest" has gotten to be like a really bad charade game in which Hillary's propagandists are desperately waving their arms and pointing to their noses trying to convince everyone that the answer is different from what it really is. And the rest of us who know it just have to roll our eyes and wait for the timer to run out on them. Fortunately, it's almost done.

No question Clinton has been ahead the last few days in the Gallup, MOE notwithstanding. There is nothing sacrosanct about MOE, it means there is a 95% probability that a number less than 3% out (in Gallu's case). The 95% is a fairly arbitrary cutoff point although widely used. So even a 2% lead by Clinton means she's more liklely to be ahead than behind (or level). When you have a sequence of say, four days of her ahead, the likehood she is only level is very small indeed.

And as Obama was around 10% up a few days earlier, there has indeed been a significant change. Whether it lasts is another matter and the Tuesday primaries will have a noticeable effect one way or the other.

Thats right HRC is going to regret mentioning  the Magnequench plant in Vapraiso.

I guess Bill didn't like American Jobs since he promised them to the Chinese in 2005, when he let the plant be sold in 1995!  

So they left 2 years early whats a few years amongst friends ...

Clinton corporatism has come back to bite HRC