Clinton argues that Obama's caucus state victories are somehow illegitimate and not reflective of the true will of those states' voters. Those caucus victories reflect Obama's popularity among the democratic activists, those most likely to participate in caucuses. The implication is that if those states held primaries, Clinton would have done much better and may have actually won some of them, as more of her voters, the elderly and working class, would have participated.
If Clinton is right, then, you would expect that in general election polling against McCain, Clinton would be doing as equally well or even better than Obama against McCain. That would be evidence that the caucuses didn't truly reflect the will of the state's voters.
So, what does the polling show? Results below the fold.
Below are some caucus states that will be either swing or blue states in the general election. Based on an analysis of polling data from pollster.com, I've listed the likelihood of either Obama or Clinton winning the state in the general election:
Iowa
Obama - 81% chance of winning
Clinton - 29% chance of winning
Colorado
Obama - 57% chance of winning
Clinton - 8% chance of winning
Washington
Obama - 93%
Clinton - 62%
Nevada (Clinton won popular vote, lost delegate count)
Obama - 64%
Clinton - 24%
Minnesota
Obama - 89%
Clinton - 70%
Maine
Obama - 89%
Clinton - 70%
Nebraska (note: NE allocates some electoral votes proportionally by congressional districts - meaning Obama actually has a real chance to pick up one or two electoral votes, per Jonathan Singer's analysis on the front page)
Obama - 10%
Clinton - 0%
Alaska
Obama - 10%
Clinton - 0%
Analysis: In each of the states listed above, Obama has a much better chance of winning the state compared to Clinton. I'm not a social scientist, but there clearly seems to be a correlation between Obama's caucus victories and his chances of winning the state in the general election. An inference that could be drawn is that Obama's caucus wins do reflect his greater popularity in the state compared to Clinton, and therefore his victories do have predictive value in terms of Obama's electability and strength in those states.
Colorado really shows how meaningful Obama's caucus victory was in that state, since he now is favored to win the state while Clinton has a very slim chance of winning Colorado, and Colorado could play a key role in Obama's electoral map strategy.
Data from the following link: http://www.hotlinkfiles.com/files/134108
3_co4h8/Obama-Clintonstates-May19.pdf
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