Are Obama's Caucus State Wins Legitimate?

Clinton argues that Obama's caucus state victories are somehow illegitimate and not reflective of the true will of those states' voters.  Those caucus victories reflect Obama's popularity among the democratic activists, those most likely to participate in caucuses.  The implication is that if those states held primaries, Clinton would have done much better and may have actually won some of them, as more of her voters, the elderly and working class, would have participated.  

If Clinton is right, then, you would expect that in general election polling against McCain, Clinton would be doing as equally well or even better than Obama against McCain.  That would be evidence that the caucuses didn't truly reflect the will of the state's voters.

So, what does the polling show?  Results below the fold.

Below are some caucus states that will be either swing or blue states in the general election.  Based on an analysis of polling data from pollster.com, I've listed the likelihood of either Obama or Clinton winning the state in the general election:

Iowa
Obama - 81% chance of winning
Clinton - 29% chance of winning

Colorado
Obama - 57% chance of winning
Clinton - 8% chance of winning

Washington
Obama - 93%
Clinton - 62%

Nevada (Clinton won popular vote, lost delegate count)
Obama - 64%
Clinton - 24%

Minnesota
Obama - 89%
Clinton - 70%

Maine
Obama - 89%
Clinton - 70%

Nebraska (note: NE allocates some electoral votes proportionally by congressional districts - meaning Obama actually has a real chance to pick up one or two electoral votes, per Jonathan Singer's analysis on the front page)
Obama - 10%
Clinton - 0%

Alaska
Obama - 10%
Clinton - 0%

Analysis: In each of the states listed above, Obama has a much better chance of winning the state compared to Clinton.  I'm  not a social scientist, but there clearly seems to be a correlation between Obama's caucus victories and his chances of winning the state in the general election.  An inference that could be drawn is that Obama's caucus wins do reflect his greater popularity in the state compared to Clinton, and therefore his victories do have predictive value in terms of Obama's electability and strength in those states.  

Colorado really shows how meaningful Obama's caucus victory was in that state, since he now is favored to win the state while Clinton has a very slim chance of winning Colorado, and Colorado could play a key role in Obama's electoral map strategy.

Data from the following link: http://www.hotlinkfiles.com/files/134108 3_co4h8/Obama-Clintonstates-May19.pdf



Display:


Re: Are Obama's Caucus State Wins Legitimate? (1.33 / 3)

NO.


by nikkid on Mon May 19, 2008 at 07:22:33 PM EST

Re: Are Obama's Caucus State Wins Legitimate? (2.00 / 1)

Reason being?  Or just because you don't like them?


Congratulations Steny Hoyer! Our 2008 Chickenshit Leader Of The Year!
by RockvilleLiberal2 on Mon May 19, 2008 at 07:25:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Are Obama's Caucus State Wins Legitimate? (1.00 / 1)

Nikkid is a member of the 5th Column. It's better just to ignore them...


by RP McMurphy on Mon May 19, 2008 at 07:48:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Are Obama's Caucus State Wins Legitimate? (2.00 / 7)

If you bolded that NO instead of just using all caps, that would make your rebuttal that much more in-depth and convincing.


by upstate girl on Mon May 19, 2008 at 07:25:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Are Obama's Caucus State Wins Legitimate? (2.00 / 1)

I AGREE


John McCain hates terrorists, except the ones that hate women. Those are just swell.
by terra on Mon May 19, 2008 at 07:36:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Are Obama's Caucus State Wins Legitimate? (none / 0)

heh.  Well played.  :)


Unseen, in the background, Fate was quietly slipping the lead into the boxing glove.
by fogiv on Mon May 19, 2008 at 07:48:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Are Obama's Caucus State Wins Legitimate? (none / 0)

lol


by herenow on Mon May 19, 2008 at 07:39:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Are Obama's Caucus State Wins Legitimate? (none / 0)

zing!


We want to see Ivana [Trump] because we are so desperate in Alaska for any semblance of glamour and culture. - Sarah Palin
by spacemanspiff on Mon May 19, 2008 at 07:50:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Thank you for that response (2.00 / 2)

I'll chew on it a bit and get back to you.  


by ProfessorReo on Mon May 19, 2008 at 07:25:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Are Obama's Caucus State Wins Legitimate? (2.00 / 1)

The Dem party, and the states in question, seem to disagree with you.


by PhilFR on Mon May 19, 2008 at 07:26:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Are Obama's Caucus State Wins Legitimate? (none / 0)

why do you hate democracy?


by sidwood on Mon May 19, 2008 at 07:28:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Are Obama's Caucus State Wins Legitimate? (2.00 / 1)

Hi Nikki,
"NO" as in I'm right and you're wrong. "NO" as in I don't want to talk about it. "NO" as in nyeah nyeah I can say whatever I want as long as I am pro Clinton and I won't get my rec privileges taken away.
by dawolfe on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:02:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Are Obama's Caucus State Wins Legitimate? (none / 0)

(sorry I stepped out)....NO as in I witnessed the Texas caucus first hand and it was ILLEGAL.

How does a candidate win a state by 100,000 votes in a primary, but lose in an illegitimate caucus which results in having less delegates?

How does a candidate loss by 30% (more or less) in WA or NE caucus, but only by 2-3% (more or less) in the primary?

Because the caucus process displaces a large number of voters who work and can't get away, who are out of town and can't vote absentee, who have child care issues or are elderly and can't get away.

Primaries are all day, take a couple minutes and most allow for absentee voting.....

Caucuses do not and will not reflect the vote of the general population of that state.


by nikkid on Tue May 20, 2008 at 01:55:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I cannot believe that we even need to ask (2.00 / 9)

or answer that question.  These are the rules.  We play by the rules.  We accept the results.

If we don't like the rules, we work like dawgs to make sure they are changed before the next primary.


accepting McLettuce is like being 9 years old and forced to eat your own cooking
by Sychotic1 on Mon May 19, 2008 at 07:23:26 PM EST

Re: I cannot believe that we even need to ask (2.00 / 1)

Especially since Clintonites like McAuliffe made these rules.


John McCain: Healthcare for Kids? In America? No way
by bosdcla14 on Mon May 19, 2008 at 07:25:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I cannot believe that we even need to ask (2.00 / 1)

Not really. The caucus process goes back many generations.


by PhilFR on Mon May 19, 2008 at 07:27:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I cannot believe that we even need to ask (2.00 / 1)

Fair point.  I was pointing out that if the rules were so unfair, then McAuliffe was in a position to change them when he was chair, and did not do so.  


John McCain: Healthcare for Kids? In America? No way
by bosdcla14 on Mon May 19, 2008 at 07:44:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I cannot believe that we even need to ask (2.00 / 1)

I'm not sure that it would be so easy to change. In the last year I moved into a caucus state (Colorado). Those who pay attention to these things can be strong advocates of caucusing. And while it has huge downsides as an electoral process, it is a form of democracy that stresses community much more than individual voting does. It won't go down easily, and I'm not sure that it should.


by PhilFR on Mon May 19, 2008 at 07:59:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I cannot believe that we even need to ask (2.00 / 2)

I agree with you, especially since caucuses have been around since the nation's founding.  

But, questions have been raised about the meaning of these caucus victories, and so, I do find it illuminating that Obama is doing better than Clinton   in all the caucus states that Obama won.  


by ProfessorReo on Mon May 19, 2008 at 07:29:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I cannot believe that we even need to ask (none / 0)

I don't think the meaning is in question. Caucuses emphasize a candidates ability to do on-the-ground organizing and mobilizing. Fail at that, and you have tough sledding in a caucus.


by PhilFR on Mon May 19, 2008 at 08:01:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Fail at that and you have trouble in any election. (2.00 / 1)


by edg1 on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:16:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Are Obama's Caucus State Wins Legitimate? (none / 0)

Of course not.  But then Obama's lawyer will fight you on that.

And where did you get those polls? Did it come from college Universities again, and ignoring the rural areas?

BS


by SHIBAM8P on Mon May 19, 2008 at 07:27:40 PM EST

Polls are from Pollster.com (none / 0)

The numbers really can't be disputed.  For example, it's clear that Colorado is a viable state for Obama, while it is not for Clinton.  I don't know anyone who disputes that point.


by ProfessorReo on Mon May 19, 2008 at 07:33:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

But the primaries won by Clinton would (none / 0)

show the reverse.

She has a better chance to win OH, PA, and FL and those states are much more critical than the caucus states.

By the way, of the states you mention, both either have a good chance of winning or little chance of winning except for Colorado and Iowa.  These two states are a bit contrarian to most other states because those are the only ones that have shown Obama consistently ahead of McCain (by a bit) and Clinton consistently behind.  For some reason, she is just not very well liked in these states even though these states seem to be leaning toward voting for the Democrats.

The reverse is more common.  Clinton is ahead (or tight with McCain) in OH, AR, MO, WV, and FL while Obama is behind him, and at least three of these states are extremely significant on a stand alone basis.

Of course, Obama's caucus victories should count in delegate evaluation because those are the rules.  But, the party should consider penalizing states who elect caucuses rather than primaries in the future because these states should not get a full delegate number for one-sixth to one-third of the voter participation that would have occurred in a primary.


by lombard on Mon May 19, 2008 at 08:06:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Are Obama's Caucus State Wins Legitimate? (2.00 / 4)

He got the polls from pollster.com. It says right in the diary. Reading is edukashunal.


John McCain hates terrorists, except the ones that hate women. Those are just swell.
by terra on Mon May 19, 2008 at 07:37:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Are Obama's Caucus State Wins Legitimate? (2.00 / 3)

Considering he showed his source in the diary, I'm left to understand that you didn't read it. Not surprising, considering the rest of your comments.


by upstate girl on Mon May 19, 2008 at 07:40:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Are Obama's Caucus State Wins Legitimate? (2.00 / 2)

Simple answer, YES.

Complicated answer, caucuses are a convoluted process.  They are not necessarily characteristic of the view of the state but rather are characteristic of the people who take the time to participate in them.  That said, I have long said that if Terry McAuliffe and co. had such a problem with them, he could have advocated change when he was head of the DNC.  

It seems few people had a problem with the process until it favored one person...

The time to change things is not mid-season...


Like the nominee, don't like the nominee... Our nominee is still better than John McCain...
by JenKinFLA on Mon May 19, 2008 at 07:33:16 PM EST

No effort is the problem (2.00 / 1)

If the Clinton campaign had a problem with caucuses they should have at least made an appearance in those states, opened a field office or two, or at least make the slightest pretense of asking for their vote. In most of these states her campaign made no effort, or just enough effort to deserve the 20-40% she received in those states. With this in mind it's kind of funny to hear Hillary people call Obama a "48 state" campaigner when her campaign ignored at least a dozen states...


by 79blondini on Mon May 19, 2008 at 08:06:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

In Terry's defense. (2.00 / 1)

Let me preface this by saying the Obama has played by the rules fair and square.  His caucus victories are legitimate and he deserves the delegates he was awarded.

That said, I don't agree with the "Terry should have done something earlier" argument.  Nobody anticipated that we would have a primary campaign like this with two candidates so close in the delegate count and popular vote count.  They are close enough together that very subtle changes in the rules--this a primary or that a caucus--could have a substantial effect on the outcome.

Obama won those delegates fair and square.  He deserves them.  After this election cycle, the party leaders need to take a long, hard look at what worked and what did not.  I just hope that they don't view in Obama victory in November as a reason not to reform the system.


Linfar's co-blogger opposing John McCain
by psychodrew on Mon May 19, 2008 at 08:23:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Are Obama's Caucus State Wins Legitimate? (2.00 / 2)

This is why the Clinton popular vote argument is specious.
While she says all the votes must be counted she is also saying that voters in IA, WA, NV, ME don't count so let's disenfranchise four states.

Good Grief!

For a clear argument why this argument is failing to sway the supers head on over to fivethirtyeight.com


Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.
by jsfox on Mon May 19, 2008 at 07:34:19 PM EST

Re: Are Obama's Caucus State Wins Legitimate? (2.00 / 2)

I've always found it perplexing that Clinton's argument is she leads among people who didn't vote. What's next, John McCain declaring himself the victor based on the fetus demographic?


John McCain hates terrorists, except the ones that hate women. Those are just swell.
by terra on Mon May 19, 2008 at 07:37:51 PM EST

Re: Are Obama's Caucus State Wins Legitimate? (2.00 / 1)

And Iowa, Washington, Nevada, and Maine are all states in which Obama is very popular right now.

Clearly, if you counted the caucus results in those states, Obama would still come out ahead in the so-called "popular vote" metric.  

The fact the those states haven't released the numbers show that they never believed nor believe now that "popular vote" is relevant in determining the democratic nominee.  

If Clinton truly wants all the votes counted, she should be arguing for the 4 states to release the popular vote results.  It shouldn't matter that she's going to come out on the loser's end, it's about determining the "will of the voters."  If that's case, how can we not count those 4 states?  Any popular vote metric without those 4 states is not legitimate in any possible way.


by ProfessorReo on Mon May 19, 2008 at 07:41:06 PM EST

Re: Are Obama's Caucus State Wins Legitimate? (none / 0)

very well said.


by woodinville on Tue May 20, 2008 at 01:54:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Are Obama's Caucus State Wins Legitimate? (2.00 / 2)

Just to clarify, the analysis of the polling data wasn't done by me, but by Phaedrus, a poster at Dkos.  Here's a link to his very illuminating diary on polls and electability.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/19/ 183541/248/20/517635


by ProfessorReo on Mon May 19, 2008 at 07:46:14 PM EST

Re: Are Obama's Caucus State Wins Legitimate? (none / 0)

Did he win all the caucus States? Hillary didn't win a single caucus State??? Not ONE?


by xdem on Mon May 19, 2008 at 07:55:20 PM EST

Re: Are Obama's Caucus State Wins Legitimate? (none / 0)

I believe that is correct.  Clinton didn't win any caucus outright.  I'm not totally sure about this, but I believe that is right.

In Nevada, Clinton won more caucus votes, but she ended up with one less delegate.  At the state convention, Obama won 55-45 and picked up an additional delegate, while Clinton lost a delegate.  


by ProfessorReo on Mon May 19, 2008 at 08:06:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Are Obama's Caucus State Wins Legitimate? (none / 0)

NH & NV were caucuses "won" by Sen. Clinton. However, in both, despite a greater number of caucus votes, Sen. Clinton received fewer delegates than Sen. Obama. (link)

As much as I like caucuses (historic value in some states, "breeding ground" for party activists, more participatory way of setting state party platforms and electing state party reps), they can be pretty byzantine.  

However, it wasn't these "injustices" that did in the Senator from NY -- it was rolling over in 12 straight contests from Super Tuesday until TX/OH/RI. Her campaign has whipsawed its message back and forth through micropolling, and has foundered on the shoals of inevitability. Not much message discipline either from the Big Dog and surrogates like Cuomo & Ferraro.


by Twin Planets on Mon May 19, 2008 at 08:10:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

New Hampshire is not a caucus state (none / 0)

So, Nevada is the only caucus state that Clinton won.  Sort of.  


by ProfessorReo on Mon May 19, 2008 at 08:14:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Are Obama's Caucus State Wins Legitimate? (none / 0)

NH was a primary


John McCain wants to make abortion illegal
by Lost Thought on Mon May 19, 2008 at 08:18:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Are Obama's Caucus State Wins Legitimate? (none / 0)

Yep -- brainfart by me.   Thanks for the correction.


by Twin Planets on Tue May 20, 2008 at 10:26:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

But she did win in the caucus.... (2.00 / 1)

In the country results of the Democrats Abroad, Sen Clinton carried the vote in Georgia, Azerbijan, and Khazakstan. (She did lost the ex-pat vote in Armenia though.)


by Skipster on Tue May 20, 2008 at 12:35:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Flawed logic. (none / 0)

If Clinton is right, then, you would expect that in general election polling against McCain, Clinton would be doing as equally well or even better than Obama against McCain.  That would be evidence that the caucuses didn't truly reflect the will of the state's voters.

The best method would be to compare the caucus results to polling done at the time of the caucus where the question was something along the lines of, "If there were a primary, who would you vote for?"  The most accurate comparison would be a situation like the Texas primary (which Hillary won by three points) and the Texas caucus (which Obama won by ten points).

Your method, comparing old caucus results with GE polling done months later is full of problems.  You are not looking at the candidates head-to-head (which happens in a primary) and a lot of time (and other events) has gone by and voters may have changed their minds.

All that said, his caucus wins are legitimate.  He followed the rules and won the delegates fair and square.  After the GE, we need to take a hard look at this primary cycle and figure what worked and what needs to be changed.


Linfar's co-blogger opposing John McCain
by psychodrew on Mon May 19, 2008 at 08:12:46 PM EST

Re: Are Obama's Caucus State Wins Legitimate? (none / 0)

I understand your point, but that's not my logic, it's Clinton's logic.  She's been arguing that her primary wins in states like PA and Ohio means she stands a stronger chance of winning those states against McCain in the general election.  She then refers to polls showing that she is doing better in those states against McCain than Obama.

However, she's been arguing that we can't use Obama's caucus wins to make the inference that he would win those states in the general election, because caucuses reflect the will of democratic activists, not of the voters of the state.  

So, using her logic, I wanted to see how well Obama is doing against McCain compared to HRC in those caucus states.  And in each of those states, Obama is doing better in all, and significantly better in many.


by ProfessorReo on Mon May 19, 2008 at 08:18:57 PM EST

Re: Are Obama's Caucus State Wins Legitimate? (none / 0)

I think her point was that she would be a better GE candidate because she is doing better in the swing states and that many of Obama's victories came in states we would never win (ie:  Nebraska).

The argument over the validity of the caucus victories is a separate argument.


Linfar's co-blogger opposing John McCain
by psychodrew on Mon May 19, 2008 at 08:54:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Are Obama's Caucus State Wins Legitimate? (none / 0)

She's making multiple claims to contest the "legitimacy" of Obama's lead in pledged delegates.

One of them is an attack on the legitimacy of caucuses.  


by ProfessorReo on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:10:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Are Obama's Caucus State Wins Legitimate? (none / 0)

I think that you are combining her arguments in a way that doesn't make sense.


Linfar's co-blogger opposing John McCain
by psychodrew on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:20:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Are Obama's Caucus State Wins Legitimate? (none / 0)

Her point is that she would win the GE because she is white. Obama would lose the GE because he is black.


by edg1 on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:23:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Are Obama's Caucus State Wins Legitimate? (none / 0)

what????!!!


by jentwisl on Tue May 20, 2008 at 10:38:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Are Obama's Caucus State Wins Legitimate? (2.00 / 1)

As an Obama supporter, I don't know how anyone could look at the data and not conclude that caucuses significantly favor Obama.  In every state with both a primary and a caucus, Obama has done significantly better in the caucus.  Also, his wins in caucus states are way out of proportion to his wins in similar primary states.  Texas, with both a caucus and a primary that both mattered on the same date, seems dispositive.

Now, what any of this means as to the legitimacy of these wins is an entirely different issue.


John McCain vows to overturn Roe
by soccerandpolitics on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:05:36 PM EST

Re: Are Obama's Caucus State Wins Legitimate? (none / 0)

Obama's caucus wins?  No, they shouldn't count.  And we shouldn't count the caucus attendees either because they might mess up that popular vote metric.  Or delegates for that matter.  Or fundraising.  Or who ran a better campaign. Nor should we consider the number of new voters brought into the process by that other guy.  The only thing that should really matter are the voters of West Virginia, well all the voters of West Virginia except for both of their senators who endorsed that other guy, we shouldn't count them either.


by Rick in Eugene on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:43:12 PM EST

Obama's Caucus State Wins are ilLegitimate! (none / 0)

Caucuses are fraud


Welcome to a Landslide without white Working class, Latinos, Women, Seniors and holding-on sweeties
by engels on Mon May 19, 2008 at 11:38:09 PM EST

wow wow (none / 0)

these caucases have been going on for DECADES, and now they are flawed!  

mirror, mirrow on the wall, who's the most treacherous of them all?!?


by brettjay on Tue May 20, 2008 at 12:08:44 AM EST


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