MyDD :: Obama has a 16 point lead in the Gallup poll vs. Hillary

Obama has a 16 point lead in the Gallup poll vs. Hillary

by FlashStash, Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:07:12 PM EST

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107395/Gallup -Daily-Obama-Opens-16Point-Lead-Biggest- Yet.aspx

I don't know how to post the image of the graph (assistance anyone?), but it looks like the electorate is also moving towards the idea that Obama is our man. This is the biggest lead he has had in this poll!

Tags: obama, gallup (all tags)

Permalink :: 51 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Obama has a 16 point lead in the Gallup poll v (none / 0)

Simple type the following:

Commissar: Canadian Gal; Proletariat Policemen: ragekage, Lord Hadrian. "For the Proletariat!"

by Lord Hadrian on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:10:30 PM EST

Re: Obama has a 16 point lead in the Gallup poll v (none / 0)

replace the URL I used with whatever the URL is for the image you have.

It should come out like this:

Commissar: Canadian Gal; Proletariat Policemen: ragekage, Lord Hadrian. "For the Proletariat!"

by Lord Hadrian on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:12:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama has a 16 point lead in the Gallup poll v (2.00 / 1)

Startling graph:

United we stand, divided we fall.

by mefeck on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:13:13 PM EST

Re: Obama has a 16 point lead in the Gallup poll v (2.00 / 1)

You neglected for some reason to mention this rather significant point Gallup makes:

Despite her growing deficit to Obama in the Democratic race, Clinton continues to poll slightly better than Obama in matchups for the general presidential election vs. John McCain. The latest tracking results, based on May 14-18 polling, shows Clinton with a 48% to 44% lead over McCain among registered voters nationwide, while Obama has just a 1-point edge (46% to 45%) over the likely Republican nominee.

Isn't that just a great statistic for a "presumptive nominee"?

by frankly0 on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:13:57 PM EST

Re: Obama has a 16 point lead in the Gallup poll v (2.00 / 0)

There are a lot of angry Clinton supporters, which he makes up for being better against McCain with independents than Hillary. Hopefully most Clinton supporters will realise they enjoy various reproductive rights and the fact we're not at war with Iran just yet and decide Obama is the better choice.

Hopefully.

by grass on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:19:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama has a 16 point lead in the Gallup poll v (2.00 / 2)

And there are a lot of Hillary supporters who care, perhaps more than anything else, about being treated with basic respect. They find it impossible to overlook the contempt they feel has come their way, and somehow "unify" with the very people who have been abusing them.

Can many women say they've been spoken of only with respect by Obama's campaign? Or seniors? Or blue collar workers?

You call people shrill, or ignorant, or racists, there are consequences.

by frankly0 on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:25:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama has a 16 point lead in the Gallup poll v (none / 0)

This has been a two-way street. One needs to look at the w(REC)k list at any given day to see that.

United we stand, divided we fall.

by mefeck on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:27:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama has a 16 point lead in the Gallup poll v (2.00 / 1)

You're not getting the point.

If Obama is the nominee -- which is what everybody is saying is inevitable -- it doesn't matter whether Obama partisans would have harbored resentments if Hillary had won instead.

All that matters is what Hillary supporters think, because they are the ones who will have to come to support the nominee.

And if they feel they've been treated like dirt, they are not going to come over in large numbers -- which makes Obama toast in the general.

One way to take the point is that the "winner" of this process might actually be the loser, because he or she will be too damaged in the general. I do like Hillary's chances far better, because she can make up ground in the center, with working class voters -- which Obama at this point clearly will never do.

by frankly0 on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:36:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama has a 16 point lead in the Gallup poll v (none / 0)

Never. Must make you proud. You've convinced me. Where do I send the check.

by niksder on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:40:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama has a 16 point lead in the Gallup poll v (2.00 / 1)

But you're ignoring the obvious fact that if the shoe were on the other foot, the Obama supporters would likely be more resentful and expressing their disappointment by spiking the Hillary polls, while the Hillary supporters would be working to be magnanamous and conciliatory.

A lot of this is just simply the function of who's up and who's down in a long and at times somewhat nasty race.

It'll get better. Not for everyone... but across the board, it will get better.

by Rorgg on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:41:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

i happen to agree... (2.00 / 1)

hillary didn't win and it is barack's -- and our -- job to unite the party, not her's. so it's true, "All that matters is what Hillary supporters think." unfortunately, we have some hillary supporters who think that because we need them (and they assume they don't need us) that they can try emotional blackmail. that's lame, but let's not lose sight of the fact that we do need them in order to win. sure, most of them will "get over it" and wind up voting for barack. but let's not get pissy because some hillary supporter states the truth. just because barack won the primary doesn't mean that we are purging the party of hillary or her supporters. we will unite here, and there is give required on both sides...

"This is the time for resolve and steady leadership" -- Barack Obama

by bored now on Mon May 19, 2008 at 05:19:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama has a 16 point lead in the Gallup poll v (none / 0)

While Obama supporters just love being called "Kool-aid drinkers", "latte-sipping liberals" and "eggheads", is that it?

Yeah, I'm so not buying your argument.

by Aris Katsaris on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:30:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama has a 16 point lead in the Gallup poll v (2.00 / 1)

CBS's Sunday political roundtable, which includes conservatives like George Will and Peggy Noonan, agreed that McCain is in huge trouble against Obama. As they pointed out, Obama is hurt in polls by Clinton supporters who are less likely to articulate support for him right now. Historical precedent suggests that, come November, most of these Democrats will vote for Obama over McCain.

Polls right now are interesting, but more important than polls are the fundamentals, and 2008 is setting up as an electoral disaster for Republicans.

by deminva on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:35:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama has a 16 point lead in the Gallup poll v (2.00 / 1)

Look, there is no recent historical precedent for this election, in which the party was so divided along major fault lines -- with the possible and ominous exception of the run of George McGovern.

by frankly0 on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:39:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama has a 16 point lead in the Gallup poll v (none / 0)

Newsflash! Blogs are not the real world. Pretending that this divide exists in the "real world" is naive at best.

Mooseburgers? Careful Sarah. Moose bite back!

by spacemanspiff on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:47:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama has a 16 point lead in the Gallup poll v (none / 0)

Sure there is: Bush v. McCain in 2000. McCain flamed out earlier, but Bush threw far, far, far, far uglier sh*t at McCain. Among other things, Bush operatives in SC pushed a whisper campaign that McCain's adopted daughter from Indonesia was a bastard black child born of his mistress.

Despite the incredibly reasonable ill will felt by McCain's Republican supporters--many of whom never wanted to support the "establishment" candidate--most voted for Bush in November.

by deminva on Mon May 19, 2008 at 05:52:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama has a 16 point lead in the Gallup poll v (none / 0)

The rightwingers will NOT win this time. I'd bet my house on it, I'm THAT sure (and have been for a year). No way in hell McCain can pull it off, unless gas prices drop by a couple bucks, all the troops are sent home or to Afghanistan, OBL is caught, global warming ceases, health care costs drop significantly, jobs come back to the midwest... etc., etc., etc.

"Not only do I want an elite president, I want someone who's embarrassingly superior to me." -- Jon Stewart, 4/15/08

by JulieinVT on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:55:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama has a 16 point lead in the Gallup poll v (none / 0)

"You call people shrill, or ignorant, or racists, or sexists there are consequences."

Ditto that.

by the mollusk on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:38:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama has a 16 point lead in the Gallup poll v (1.00 / 1)

Oh fer chrissakes! Enough already! What a bullshit post!

"Not only do I want an elite president, I want someone who's embarrassingly superior to me." -- Jon Stewart, 4/15/08

by JulieinVT on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:43:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama has a 16 point lead in the Gallup poll v (none / 0)

Personally I despise buzz words like obamabot and clintonista, and while I'll point out something blatantly racist I won't accuse generic demographics (white working class, Clinton supporters, old people) any epithet.

So please stop accusing me and generic Obama supporters of insulting people. At most I'll type a snarky post to deal with some of the idiocy that goes on around here. (And don't deny it, there is plenty of idiocy on both sides going on here).

by grass on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:58:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

politics and beanbag (none / 0)

not the same things. grown-ups realize this.

by JJE on Mon May 19, 2008 at 05:04:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Waah. (2.00 / 1)

And there are a lot of Hillary supporters who care, perhaps more than anything else, about being treated with basic respect.

We're voting on a President here. It's important to focus on the salient policy issues that will affect your life for the next four years, not on vanity.

by McNasty on Mon May 19, 2008 at 05:21:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama has a 16 point lead in the Gallup poll v (none / 0)

Where do you see in the Gallup poll that he's better with independents than she is?

"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."

by VAAlex on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:30:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama has a 16 point lead in the Gallup poll v (none / 0)

Gallup did a separate poll:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107272/Obama- McCain-Highly-Competitive-Independent-Vo te.aspx

Basic numbers:
among democrats O = 76 C = 84
Among independents: O = 44 C =41
Among republicans = O = 12 C = 8

by grass on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:54:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama has a 16 point lead in the Gallup poll v (none / 0)

3 points? Not really significant ...

"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."

by VAAlex on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:12:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama has a 16 point lead in the Gallup poll v (none / 0)

Well, I guess Hillary's lead over McCain isn't really significant either then.

by grass on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:05:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama has a 16 point lead in the Gallup poll v (none / 0)

Eight points is pretty significant. And three points in a subgroup is not significant.

"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."

by VAAlex on Tue May 20, 2008 at 03:23:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Wait for it (none / 0)

we'll soon hear how these polls are meaningless....and two weeks ago, when it was close, we heard how we needed to follow them closely.

Just wait...it's coming.

by southernman on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:14:27 PM EST

Still waiting for Jerome (none / 0)

to announce that Hillary is sliding to doom or whatever.

That may or may not be the case, but I just remember his gleeful post when Hillary had a 4 point advantage or something.

by grass on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:20:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Still waiting for Jerome (none / 0)

Yeah - Why no front page diary on this poll when a 3 or 4 point lead for Clinton deserved it.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Mon May 19, 2008 at 05:16:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wait for it (none / 0)

I'll tell you that now... polls conducted in Spring are meaningless... otherwise Kerry would be President...

That said, this is a wider spread that I have seen previously, so, if you watch polls, it is good news for Obama supporters...

McCain/Palin... even scarier than Bush/Cheney... and that's saying something!

by JenKinFLA on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:27:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wait for it (none / 0)

I've been saying the same thing too JenK...and I've been getting insulted by Clinton supporters for DARING to suggest that a poll showing Clinton ahead in meaningless.

Now that the poll shows Obama ahead, I'm waiting to hear the Clintonites claim it's meaningless, as they've done every time.

by southernman on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:31:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wait for it (none / 0)

ah... I gotcha... missed the challenge there a bit...

To be honest, I got smacked down pretty hard by a Clinton supporter because my usual sentence is that polling data is unreliable and she got a bit red about it...

What can I say... I'm the bearer of bad news frequently, but polling data is unreliable...

McCain/Palin... even scarier than Bush/Cheney... and that's saying something!

by JenKinFLA on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:34:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You don't have to look hard (none / 0)

Look at this diary from Friday, which IIRC, actually even made the Rec List for a bit, about how important it was that Hillary was ahead by some unreported amount in one day of the Obama-Clinton polling.

Obviously, it was a transitory blip in the data, but that was dismissed out of hand.

by Rorgg on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:44:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama has a 16 point lead in the Gallup poll v (2.00 / 2)

Wasn't their a diary about him not having a statistical edge in Gallup last week? I guess Gallup is on the enemies list now.

Mooseburgers? Careful Sarah. Moose bite back!

by spacemanspiff on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:14:55 PM EST

Re: Obama has a 16 point lead in the Gallup poll v (none / 0)

Careful, you're next Bill!!

by the mollusk on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:39:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama has a 16 point lead in the Gallup poll v (1.00 / 1)

Polls are like states, if Hillary wins then they count, if Hillary looses then they don't count.

We shall overcome. Yes we can.

by Sam Wise Gingy on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:16:57 PM EST

Re: Obama has a 16 point lead in the Gallup poll v (2.00 / 0)

The diary was about how this is good for Obama ... really no need to dig at Hillary.

"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."

by VAAlex on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:31:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yikes (none / 0)

That'd be one hell of an outlier.

Unfortunately for graph-worshippers, these great numbers come only after they fail to be meaningful. Clinton is no longer pushing her candidacy, so really this is less important than the next horse race with McCain.

The key will be to get the discouraged Clinton voters signed on with Obama.

In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.

That One/Another Fella '08

by Dracomicron on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:19:48 PM EST

This poll does not matter anymore (none / 0)

Obama is marching to the nomination pretty easily now. If you blink, you miss another superdelegate endorsement for Obama.

by rf7777 on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:32:35 PM EST

Re: This poll does not matter anymore (none / 0)

2 more from Alaska just announced.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/19/ 162138/655/210/518454

by parahammer on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:38:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: This poll does not matter anymore (2.00 / 2)

Linking to the Great Oranage Satan?!

You are sooooo gonna get banned!

by rf7777 on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:52:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Uh (none / 0)

What people fail to realize, is that in 2012 (should Obama lose this year), there is not a single chance in hell Clinton can run again.

The blame, like it or not, will be placed by the media mostly on her and her supporters. Think how many millions of Barack Obam-ians are going to carry that grudge for years should he lose because of some sort of "revenge-vote" scenario. There will be not a shot in hell they would allow Hillary to make it past the primaries.

There will absoluuuutely have to be a clean slate. After this run, unless Obama wins the Presidency and Clinton is on the VP side of things, both of them are done forever in terms of presidential bids.

So get it now or get it later. Sen. Hillary Clinton will never be President of the United States unless she runs in 2016 off of a great 8 years. Sen. Barack Obama has a great chance now.

by AlexScott on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:39:06 PM EST

Re: Uh (2.00 / 1)

I won't pretend to know whether Hillary will have a chance in 2012 should Obama lose in 2008.

But here's one thing you should bear in mind: losers, and their supporters, rarely get to dictate anything in further elections, especially when it was an election extremely favorable to the party in question -- quite obviously true in this upcoming election.

If Obama loses, it will be a disgrace for him, and for the wing of the party that he represents. Their clout will be gone. The Party can and must reorganize itself around the failing wing as best it can.

To me, it's more important to see the Democratic party once again restructured around its self-destructive elitist components -- just as took place after McGovern lost -- than for a particular politician, like Hillary, to succeed. Perhaps every generation the Democratic Party has to lose still another election for this restructuring to take place, like sloughing off a skin.

by frankly0 on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:52:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama has a 16 point lead ..... (none / 0)

As a Hillary supporter am I supposed to prostrate?

You may not agree with What I say but don't forget I am a Democrat

by indydem99 on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:47:30 PM EST

Re: Obama has a 16 point lead ..... (2.00 / 1)

A genuflection would be more appropriate.

by parahammer on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:54:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama has a 16 point lead ..... (none / 0)

No. I don't want to demean you. I really and truly do not.

But more of you could acknowledge facts that are unfavorable to your candidate.

If we overdo it, it's really because some of you guys and gals just ignore that which you do not like. I am not saying that you personally have done that, but many here have.

That's all. Just, maybe, say something like "Oh, I see what you see. And I see that it is a positive sign for your candidate and a negative sign for mine."

That's really it.

by Reaper0Bot0 on Mon May 19, 2008 at 05:31:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama has a 16 point lead in the Gallup poll v (none / 0)

I think this, combined with Hillary still faring better vs. McCain than Obama, simply reflects that some Dems in states that have already voted are resigning themselves to the fact that Obama will be the nominee. And they accept that. But this does not represent an enthusiasm for Obama - as reflected in his weaker numbers versus McCain.

And, in states yet to vote, where voters still have a choice, I would expect the demographic trends we have seen thus far to continue.

by mikes101 on Mon May 19, 2008 at 05:46:41 PM EST

Re: Obama has a 16 point lead in the Gallup poll v (none / 0)

In Oregon, where voters still have a choice, will you acknowledge that Obama will win a significant majority of the 'hard-working' white vote?

by BlueInBoston on Mon May 19, 2008 at 06:05:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama has a 16 point lead in the Gallup poll v (none / 0)

I don't think there is much of the so-called "hard-working" white vote in Oregon. My impression is Oregon is more upscale, college-educated, high-tech, etc... for the more downscale voters - no, I don't think Obama will win them, even in Oregon. There just aren't enough of these voters in Oregon to carry the state for Clinton.

by mikes101 on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:06:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama has a 16 point lead in the Gallup poll v (none / 0)

It does not matter..

Obama needs 112
Clinton needs 306

"harlequin speech of suicide, demanding instantaneous lobotomy"

by nogo postal on Mon May 19, 2008 at 06:02:24 PM EST

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