Another live political junkie moment tomorrow night for OR & KY.
A split seems likely, Obama is expected to win by double-digits in OR, though the latest polls have shown it being closer. The problem for Clinton in OR is similar to NC, in that her highest poll number is only 45 percent, while Obama's is 55 percent. That very well could be the final tally. This is a graph showing which counties in Oregon have returned their ballots. If there's not a late surge in voting, Clinton may be much closer, but I suspect there will be (with turnout exceeding 700K).
In KY, Clinton will do very well, the only question being whether she blows Obama away by more or less than 30 percent. The polls say its likely, because I would expect that the undecideds break toward Clinton and Edwards, as they did in West Virginia.
The narrative for the night will be cast pretty early with the Kentucky results coming very early in the night-- iirc their polls close at 6 pm CST. And Oregon results will not be known until much later, at 8 pm PST, so there's a 4 hour difference there alone. Most likely, both candidates will have delivered their 'victory' speeches prior to Oregon being called-- unless it's a big Obama victory.
I'll go with Obama in OR and a 54-46 result, and Clinton over Obama & Edwards in KY by a 62-32-5 margin.
I'm also gonna go out on a limb for now, and predict that Clinton takes SD, splitting the contests on June 3rd, a closed primary (for which the recent NE primary results are a good current prognosticator). Obama should do very well in MT.
Between now and then, are the DNC meeting over MI & FL on the 31st, and the Puerto Rico primary on the 1st. I just learned that Todd Beeton is gong to be heading down to Puerto Rico on the 31st, so we'll have on-location coverage of the PR primary.
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