In addition to electing a Democrat to the White House, the other dream result for November is to gain 9 seats in the senate for the magic filibuster-proof 60-seat majority (this is, of course, still counting Lieberman as part of our majority, which lately has become more and more questionable.) I've felt for a while that we should set 60 as our goal no matter how unlikely it seems. Hell, if we got that elusive 6th seat for the majority in 06, anything's possible. But now, looking at Chris Bowers's rundown of our winnable seats, it's remarkable to see just how doable 60 seats actually is.
Likely Democratic Pick-ups
- 1. Virginia: Warner (D) 55%--37% Gilmore (R)
- 2. New Mexico: Tom Udall (D) 54%--40% Pearce (R)
- 3. New Hampshire: Shaheen (D) 51.5%--41.5% Sununu (R-inc)
Current Toss-ups
- 1. Colorado: Mark Udall (D) 45.0%--43.5% Schaeffer (R)
- 2. Alaska: Stevens (R-inc) 46%--45% Begich (D)
Competitive Seats, Republicans Favored
- 1. Oregon: Smith (R-inc) 45%--42% Merkley (D); Smith 47%--41% Novick (D)
- 2. North Carolina: Dole (R-inc) 47.7%--44.0% Hagen (D) (see also PPP)
- 3. Texas: Cornyn (R-inc) 47.5%--43.5% Noriega (D)
- 4. Minnesota: Coleman (R-inc) 51.0%--42.5% Franken (D) (see also Survey USA)
There's your nine right there, either ahead or behind within single digits. That is phenomenal. But why stop there? Let's make Lieberman irrelevant, let's get that tenth seat. I'd argue the most likely candidate for that tenth senate seat is the one held by faux moderate Bush enabler Susan Collins up in Maine. She's also one of Joe Lieberman's best buddies, so how sweet it would be if her defeat sealed his irrelevancy. But is it doable? Hell yes. Check out these new numbers from Rasmussen, which show her Democratic challenger, Rep. Tom Allen, gaining 6 points since their previous poll released April 1.
Susan Collins (R-Inc.) 52 (54)
Tom Allen (D) 42 (38)
Gerald at Turn Maine Blue puts this in perspective:
Still a lot of work to do (especially in the 2nd District), and it is unlikely that Allen will be able to chip away much at Collins' GOP base (despite their disgust for her), but the two are even amongst Independent voters now and hopefully Dem's will see the fallacy of supporting her, and this can be turned as the myth of her "moderation" is dispelled.
Collins is still winning 34% of Democrats. That will decline as Allen continues to make stark distinctions with Collins on Iraq, as he has done both on funding...
“After more than five long years, there is still no end in sight in Iraq. Yet President Bush, Vice President Cheney, Senator Collins, and other supporters of an open-ended commitment still have no plan for bringing our troops home,” Allen said. “During a time when the middle class is struggling to pay for things like fuel, groceries, healthcare, and education, we continue to spend $12 billion every month in Iraq. America can’t afford to stay in Iraq indefinitely. For that reason, I will oppose any funding bill that doesn’t include a firm, responsible deadline to bring our troops home.”
...And on Collins's tragic lack of oversight when she was chair of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee...
"Allen...said the then-Republican-led Congress and Collins in particular should have done more before 2006 to investigate the military’s preparation for the reconstruction effort. The Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee was supposed to oversee the work of contractors who wasted billions of taxpayer dollars in Iraq, he said, but for 3½ years Collins "refused" to hold hearings on the issue."If she [had] only held a few hearings, it would have exposed that the administration’s oversight was woefully inadequate," Allen said. "The consequence of that has been to make what happened in Iraq a lot worse, a lot worse than it needed to be."
The media has even picked up the story. Check out this devastating news piece that aired on CBS local news in Portland:
So, as you can see, there's reason to be optimistic about the possibility of winning the magic 60-seat majority in the senate, but if we really want to have a true filibuster-proof majority of ALL Democrats, we need to help elect Tom Allen to the senate and send perhaps the most egregious example of a Bush rubberstamp posing as a moderate that we have in the senate packing.
So, do me a favor and throw Tom Allen some love over at Act Blue today. I know we have an embarrassment of riches in terms of our candidates this year and many of us are already tapped out from the presidential campaign, but we need to step up for each and every one of our challengers, even if it's a little bit. I'm in for $20. Who's with me?
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