Why California's ruling is not going to kill us in November

Like most of you, my reaction to the ending of the same sex marriage ban was mixed.  Most of me was excited than an obvious case of discrimination was struck down.  A small part of me was still worried about November.  We've already seen the God and guns; here comes the gay issue.

Of course, even if this meant President McCain, I couldn't say this ruling was wrong.  You can't keep oppressing a minority out of fear of the voters.  In that case you won't stand for anything other than winning.  Fortunately though, I think this time, it's not going to be that big of a deal.  Follow me below the fold for the reasoning.

1) Acting out of strength

The Democrats are in a really strong position this year.  When we're winning in MS and AL, that's a sign that we're likely to extend our majority.  To the degree that this effects November, it'll be a question of how much does it cut into our gains, not how much does it kill us.  That by itself is a reason to not fear.

2) Redundancy

If there's one thing we've learned about the press over the past few years, it's that they get bored.  Ask them to cover the same story over and over again and they'll start to look for an excuse not to.  

It's not just the press that gets bored; it's also an issue with voters.  When you keep bringing up the same allegedly scandalous point over and over again, it starts to lose its effect.  That's horrible when it comes to (say) the violent nature of war, but here it works to our favor.  After three elections on this topic, the, "OMG NO!!" factor is wearing off.  The underlying questions about why we allow this inequality to continue has more of a chance to be heard after the shock factor has worn off.  And the fact is that without that knee jerk aversion, it's hard to argue that there's a problem here.

Not only does the repetition make people more blasé about the damage this may cause, but it also means that there's less potential for it to affect the general election.  There's no swing states left to try to get initiatives drives going.  They all passed them in 2004.  This is likely to stay localized to California.

3) The McCain Factor

This one may be huge.  McCain is opposed to amending the constitution on this oh so important issue.  It's hard to get people out in droves to vote for a candidate on social issues when he doesn't agree with them himself.  Not only is this not likely to help him, it could actually do him damage if he doesn't handle it correctly.  

McCain has the choice of sticking to his maverick ways and driving a bigger wedge between him and his base or selling his views out and increasing the connection between him and Bush.  I'm assuming he's going to try to stick to the former, but in doing so, it'll make more social conservatives wonder what the difference between him and Obama is.

4) Larger issues

The economy is looming large, very large.  Gas prices are terrifying people.  Iraq can be spun into that picture.  With such stark differences on how to deal with these, there's a real chance that we can marginalize this issue more than we could in past years.

Again, we shouldn't support civil rights based on political expediency, but it's nice that the timing came together as well as it did.  Sure, we'd all be happier if this ruling was made in 2009, but at some point it would give people an issue to run on.  If we can get past this election, we might not only have a major gain for equality in this country, but we might destroy a wedge issue and further diminish the Republicans as being a party stuck in the past.  



Display:


Re: Why California's (none / 0)

What about in CO?

david


by giusd on Thu May 15, 2008 at 03:06:33 PM EST

Re: Why California's (none / 0)

You scared me for a second, but CO passed a stupid initiative in 2006.  As bad as that is, it neuters it for 2008


Beat McCain!
by thezzyzx on Thu May 15, 2008 at 03:22:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why California's (none / 0)

That is good since the GOP can not use that to bring out those voters.

david


by giusd on Thu May 15, 2008 at 03:37:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why California's (none / 0)

The one state where this could be an issue this year is Florida.  Fortunately, Obama's path doesn't use FL.


Beat McCain!
by thezzyzx on Thu May 15, 2008 at 03:43:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

They can try to put it in the race (none / 0)

and maybe I am myopic, but I don't see how this ruling have any bearing on the Presidential race.

That said, I am sooo happy to hear that my home state has finally gotten some common freakin' sense!

'scuse me while I go buy me some fancy dresses for the slew of wedding invitations I am sure to get.


accepting McLettuce is like being 9 years old and forced to eat your own cooking
by Sychotic1 on Thu May 15, 2008 at 03:27:07 PM EST

Obama's victory (none / 0)

is going to come, in part, from record turnout among young people who were either too young, too uninterested, or still naive college students, in 2004.

I will pay anyone who can find more than 10 people under 30 who vehemently oppose gay marriage enough to change their vote from Obama/undecided to McCain in the next 24 hours.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Thu May 15, 2008 at 10:16:46 PM EST


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