Is it Appalachia or the Working Class? (UPDATE!!)

WOW! What cool and thoughtful dialogue we have going in here. Thanks to everybody who is arguing and discussing with respect. This is a cool thread.

This is a diary that seeks to explore the mystery of why the democratic primary electorate in the Appalachian region votes so differently than the rest of the country.

It seems that some people want to give West Virginia an outsized influence in the debate over whether or not Barack Obama has a problem securing the vote of blue collar white voters. I do not pretend to be able to dissect the psychology of these voters, and certainly do not ascribe to them any nefarious motivations such as fear of an African American candidate. But for whatever reason WVa's white voters turned out for Clinton in numbers that are different from white voters in most other parts of the country.

Yesterday, another poster had a chart up that showed the counties nationwide in which Hillary Clinton had won by margins larger than 65-35. Almost all of these counties came in Appalachia, and the only hole in the Appalachian section of the map at this point were the states of WVa and KY. Filling them in completes the cycle of Appalachian regions that Clinton can expect to win overwhelmingly. Again, why this is, I have no idea but it is so clearly regionally delineated that I feel I can say that with good confidence that Obama has a problem among Appalachian voters (and I say this as a strong Obama supporter).

At this point in this long race, Obama has won in predominantly white states on the west coast, the plains, the midwest, and the southeast. This demonstrates a breadth of support that is not shaken by the mysterious loss of support in Appalachia. It is foolish to suggest that because Obama seems to not connect with voters in Appalachia that he can't win the general, or even that he wouldn't be as strong a candidate as HRC.

But is it so cut and dried? In fact, Obama has been winning white working class voters all over the country, in lesser numbers than Sen Clinton perhaps, but in significant numbers nonetheless. He has also been winning majorities of the white vote in college towns and high tech centers nationwide. In Appalachia there appears to be many fewer of those sorts of voters, and many more of the blue collar demographic and he seems to therefore be winning a significantly lower total of the white vote there.

So what can be gleaned from this? It is it regional or economic issues that are driving the working class white vote away from Obama in Appalachia? And why do so many Clinton supporters think that it is fair game to extrapoate the results in WVa to the nation as a whole?



Display:


So many ways to parse the data... (2.00 / 1)

Or, is it regional and primarily generational?

Or Educational and Monetary?

Senator Clinton is VERY STRONG with almost all groups over 50, except African Americans?

But, if there is any group that Senator McCain is going to fight her for, that's it?

And, here's the counter question for her:

Big City or Black?

She is losing there as well, winning rural primarily?

Slice and dice, slice and dice....


"Either you're the butcher Or the lamb but even so, Everybody pays as they go-Jakob Dylan"
by WashStateBlue on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:08:15 AM EST

your premise is wrong because it ignores (2.00 / 1)

what is happening in states that he won before Rezko/Wrigth and bittergate.  He won all those white folks in IA right?  But look again, he is losing them now and Clinton is winning them against McCain.
Look at all the other red/swing states he won... he is losing them now with the exception of CO.
His blue states are smaller and have much less delegates than Hillary's blue states and she is winning her swing states in the present EC count. Neither of them is winning MO right now, but there is no reason, not a single one to believe he will do better there than Hillary does.  In fact given the present dynamics I would bet she has a chance of winning MO and he does not.

His self inflicted wounds are real.  People are getting to know who he is past the Hope rhetoric and he is leaking support right and left and independent.


For Obama it now becomes: Faith, hope and CHANGE! And the greatest of these is Change!
by TeresaInPa on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:15:33 AM EST

Re: your premise is wrong because it ignores (none / 0)

Then why is he still taking the working class in OR MT & SD?

Remember the early primaries occurred before Tuzla


John McCain: Cheney with a temper
by wrb on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:22:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: your premise is wrong because it ignores (2.00 / 2)

So when he wins MT, SD & OR your position will be what?


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:26:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: your premise is wrong because it ignores (none / 0)

If you poll California now, Obama beats Clinton. Should we re-vote there?


by IowaMike on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:43:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: your premise is wrong because it ignores (none / 0)

Whites are abandoning Obama in droves!!!

Look!  Here are the polls released May 13 in a state where there are almost no African-American voters:

Oregon PPP  Obama 53, Clinton 39 - Obama +14.0
Oregon SUSA Obama 54, Clinton 43 - Obama +11.0

Oh.  Nevermind.


by TL on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:28:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

As soon as someone mentions Rezko (none / 0)

you know it's troll time.  Unlike Wright, nobody cares about Rezko outside the hardcore Hills fans.


by JJE on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:13:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It's Appalachia not the white working class (2.00 / 1)

that is resistant to Obama.  It is more of a regional thing.

The problem is that Appalachia takes up parts of swing states in the mid-West that Obama needs to win including Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

I personally think that Obama needs to work harder to win these voters.


by puma on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:17:35 AM EST

Michigan... (none / 0)

Is not Appalachia, even in part...


by Casuist on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:29:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan... (2.00 / 1)

HE WASN'T ON THE BALLOT OR CAMPAIGNED THERE!

If you don't get why the results there are wrong, you will never understand the meaning of the word fair.


by IowaMike on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:45:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan... (none / 0)

I think you misunderstand... I was refuting the talking point stated above that the Appalachian vote would affect Michigan in the GE. Obama will win MI.


by Casuist on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:59:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan... (none / 0)

sorry....:)


by IowaMike on Wed May 14, 2008 at 10:09:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

nor is ... (2.00 / 2)

Florida.  Or Massachusetts.  Or Texas.  Or California.  Or Indiana, etc.

I suppose all these bigots posting anti-Appalachia diaries and comments have decided the Democratic nominee only needs highly-educated white people (and not all of them - my wife and I have four degree between us and are not Obama supporters) and 90% of African-Americans to win in November.

Their math is different from my math.


by Thirsty Gator on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:47:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: nor is ... (2.00 / 2)

Obama is winning by every category. It is only in convoluted logic that Hillary is leading in anything.

There are polls that show 50% of Americans just wont vote for Hillary Clinton no matter what. She hasn't broken 50% in a national poll against McCain, especially since she has gone negative.

She is not more electable, a divided convention ensures our failure, she is losing by the rules she approved.


by IowaMike on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:53:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

don't get me wrong ... (none / 0)

I think she would lose in November as well.  But I think she'd garner more electoral votes than he would.

I'll vote for whomever leaves the convention as the candidate.  But if I were a betting man my money would be on McCain in November, to America's severe detriment.


by Thirsty Gator on Wed May 14, 2008 at 10:09:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: don't get me wrong ... (none / 0)

If Obama wins the white vote in Oregon, will that chnge any of your thoughts?


by IowaMike on Wed May 14, 2008 at 10:11:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: don't get me wrong ... (2.00 / 2)

Obama wins the white vote in plenty of states.  But he hasn't won the votes of whites without college degrees anywhere except Wisconsin.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Wed May 14, 2008 at 10:14:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: don't get me wrong ... (2.00 / 1)

If he wins those in Oregon, is it a game changer?


by IowaMike on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:41:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

it's not a race thing that loses for him (none / 0)

It's a general lack of connection with the non-black working class.


by Thirsty Gator on Wed May 14, 2008 at 10:18:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: nor is ... (none / 0)

You can't be saying Obama won't win CA and MA in the fall. He'll do very well in both states and maybe not bad in the other two.


by Becky G on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:55:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

watch what happens ... (none / 0)

in November after McCain spends the summer telling everybody how green he is.  Remember also that McCain is essentially a west coast guy and a "maverick" (at least according to the media).  That stuff will play quite well in CA.


by Thirsty Gator on Wed May 14, 2008 at 10:11:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: watch what happens ... (2.00 / 1)

Except,

1. The know dems do better.

2. No ones paying attention to him yet.

3. If we end this in June, we will have time and resources taking him down.


by IowaMike on Wed May 14, 2008 at 10:12:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The Dems know better? (none / 0)

You sure about that?  Haven't CA Dems elected a Republican Governor in six of the past eight elections?  Any state that will elect a Republican Governor may also vote for a Republican President.  Doesn't mean they WILL, but the possibility is certainly there.


by Thirsty Gator on Wed May 14, 2008 at 10:47:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Dems know better? (2.00 / 2)

NY has voted in republican governors for the past 2-3 decades. And we vote democrat in the presidential elections by overwhelming #s.

There is absolutely no way you can correlate state votes with national votes.


by Yalin on Wed May 14, 2008 at 10:56:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

we'll find out in a few months. nt (none / 0)


by Thirsty Gator on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:24:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: we'll find out in a few months. nt (none / 0)

There's nothing to find out. It aint happening.


by Yalin on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:45:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

there's a fine line ... (none / 0)

between confidence and hubris.


by Thirsty Gator on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:51:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Do you live in CA? (none / 0)

B/c I do and I will guarantee you that Obama will win it.  Dianne Feinstein is a little too conservative for us, we're not voting for John McCain.  Worry another state.  CA is a lock.


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:16:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I do not. However ... (none / 0)

I know California is a complicated state, and all Californians do not act alike.  I know California sends people like Duncan Hunter and Darrell Issa and Ronald Reagan to DC.

Look, I know CA is a generally liberal state - much more so than mine.  My point is we cannot take any state for granted.  There are A LOT of republicans in Orange County and San Diego.


by Thirsty Gator on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:08:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

And there are millions more... (none / 0)

in L.A. and San Francisco.  You also forgot that our capital Sacramento has been conservative in the past, but is trending more blue.  You're right we do send those assholes and we send them less and less every two years.  We have 53 congresspeople and we send around 30 Democrats to Washington.  And that does not even count our two liberal Senators (maybe not too liberal in Feinstein).

This state is dark blue.  We'll stay dark blue and we'll give Barack Obama a huge Democratic turnout.  McCain could spend the next 5 months here and Obama never come and we'll still crush McCain by ten points.  I hope he spends that much time here.


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Wed May 14, 2008 at 04:29:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

California ain't going red (2.00 / 1)

It just isn't.  The only reason why R's do even as well as they do in the General is because we are so used to not really counting that Californians don't turn out like they could.

Any whiff that the GOP is even reasonably possible and things will look a lot different here.


accepting McLettuce is like being 9 years old and forced to eat your own cooking
by Sychotic1 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 10:22:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

see my comment above. (none / 0)

And remember that R's haven't bothered to campaign in CA.  McCain will.


by Thirsty Gator on Wed May 14, 2008 at 10:48:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: see my comment above. (2.00 / 2)

I hope McCain campaigns hard in CA.  Against Obama, he'll have limited resources and lots of places he needs to be.  If he focuses on CA, he'll still probably lose, and he risks letting Obama gain on him in places like TX, VA, NC, etc., where Obama is polling very close.


by sasatlanta on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:10:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

McCain winning CA (none / 0)

is less absurd than Obama (or Clinton) winning TX, NC or VA.  


by Thirsty Gator on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:33:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: McCain winning CA (2.00 / 2)

Considering the massive turnout of new democrat registrations and the fall of republicans all over the country, especially in the congress?

No, what is absurd is thinking that the republicans will GAIN anywhere in the electoral map with McCain in the fall.

This is of course if Hillary Clinton is a good democrat and works her tail off for Obama as she has said she will. If she does, it'll make his win in the fall that much easier.


by Yalin on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:46:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

follow the trends: (none / 0)

The only way we win one of the states you mentioned is to put one of their own at the top of the ticket.  The past several decades have not been good to us in those states.  


by Thirsty Gator on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:50:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: follow the trends: (2.00 / 1)

I don't agree at all.  If you look at polling, Obama has recently shown very competitive in all 3 of these states.  Separately, if you look at Intrade.com where you can bet on these things, the odds show approximately (you have to approximate because the latest bet does not necessarily reflect the odds now):

CA - 90/10 D
VA - 53/47 R
NC - 75/25 R
TX - 90/10 D

This is pretty consistent with the polling and the national commentary as well.

I think Obama is going to win VA (it's been trending bluer), but I don't expect him to win NC or TX.  But if McCain neglects them to try to win CA, Obama might be able to win even those.


by sasatlanta on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:19:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: follow the trends: (none / 0)

I don't agree at all.  If you look at polling, Obama has recently shown very competitive in all 3 of these states.  Separately, if you look at Intrade.com where you can bet on these things, the odds show approximately (you have to approximate because the latest bet does not necessarily reflect the odds now):

CA - 90/10 D
VA - 53/47 R
NC - 75/25 R
TX - 90/10 D

This is pretty consistent with the polling and the national commentary as well.

I think Obama is going to win VA (it's been trending bluer), but I don't expect him to win NC or TX.  But if McCain neglects them to try to win CA, Obama might be able to win even those.


by sasatlanta on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:19:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Did you not see the new polls in the TX... (2.00 / 1)

& NC Senate races?  They have the Democratic Senate candidates within 5 of the Republican.  There is similar polling showing that Obama is making those states competitive and VA is within 1.  In CA, both Hillary and Obama crush McCain in polling.  Every one of statewide elected officials in CA but two are Democrats.  We have nearly 2/3's of the state legislature and good chance to gain that 2/3s majority in November.  You should know something about a state before you talk about it.  I will bet you a million dollars that this state will be blue (perhaps very dark blue) in November.


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:22:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Don't trust polls in May ... (none / 0)

for a November election.  Just don't.


by Thirsty Gator on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:09:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I don't... (none / 0)

but I also don't believe a person whose trying to tell me with no evidence that we are going to lose CA.  I know CA and we will not lose it.  Not this year or in a long time.


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Wed May 14, 2008 at 04:24:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

What I'm telling you ... (none / 0)

is that if you think any state is a slam-dunk you're delusional.  


by Thirsty Gator on Wed May 14, 2008 at 04:37:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

What I'm telling you is... (2.00 / 1)

that you are not listening to me.  We ARE going to WIN California.  It's not a question.  There are no ifs, ands, or buts about it.  I'll probably campaign here, but not that much, b/c we're going to crush it.  It's like questioning whether the Republicans are going to win Utah.  We can try to win it.  We can work our ass off, but it's just not going to happen.  And McCain's not going to win California.


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Wed May 14, 2008 at 04:52:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Wow. (none / 0)

Hubris, thy screen name is nklein.


by Thirsty Gator on Wed May 14, 2008 at 05:01:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Worry about it if you want... (none / 0)

but for all your worrying it's not going to change anything.  You don't live here; I do and I can guarantee you we'll win.  Just trust me and move on.


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Wed May 14, 2008 at 05:05:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

"trust me" (none / 0)

That'll be easier when you stop electing people like Arnold Schwarzenegger as governor.


by Thirsty Gator on Wed May 14, 2008 at 05:07:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You didn't see who the Dems put up... (none / 0)

we're going to elect a Democrat president in CA and if you don't believe that, then I can't force you, but it's a fact.


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Wed May 14, 2008 at 06:02:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Ah, the McGovern coalition. (2.00 / 1)

Haven't we tried that before?  Didn't work out so well in 1972, did it?


No politician ever lost an election because he underestimated the intelligence of the American public. - PT Barnum, paraphrased...
by jarhead5536 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:36:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ah, the McGovern coalition. (none / 0)

EVEN IF YOU ARE RIGHT that Barack will not win these blue collar Dems voting for Hillary, I think you are missing three points when comparing him to McGovern:

1)  McGoverns coalition is bigger now than it was then, and

2)  Obama does very well with Independents and Republicans versus how McGovern did, and

3)  Obama will inspire turnout far more McGovern

Polling right now shows this supposed "McGovern coalition" ahead of McCain.  And the polling doesn't address great turnout for the Dems (as it certainly appears right now), and the likelihood that some (but not all or maybe even most) of Hillary supports saying now they will vote for McCain or are undecided will ultimately vote for Barack.


by sasatlanta on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:26:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ah, the McGovern coalition. (none / 0)

There are still more Reagan Democrats than McGovern Democrats.  Blacks and educated whites are still far outnumbered by blue collar whites.  Since Obama is going to be the nominee, here's hoping blue collar turnout is depressed, because they will be voting Republican.


No politician ever lost an election because he underestimated the intelligence of the American public. - PT Barnum, paraphrased...
by jarhead5536 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:31:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ah, the McGovern coalition. (2.00 / 1)

Totally disagree with you that Obama would need depressed turnout among blue collar whites to win. Why did Childers win in MS when they were trying to tie Obama/Wright around him?

He doesn't need to win this demographic just not get killed by it. And please don't forget that McCain is running on an economic platform  that continues the Bush regime, and even among blue collar whites this is not popular. Obama will win in Nov.


by wasder on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:43:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Don't read too much into Childers (none / 0)

He did go out of his way to say he was NOT endorsed by Obama.


by Thirsty Gator on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:11:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's Appalachia not the white working class (none / 0)

I don't necessarily think you are wrong and I didn't mean for this to be an Appalachia bashing thread. I can't figure out why these particular white working class voters should be so different than other white working class voters though. And as I said, I would prefer to look for other more nuanced reasons than just crying race right off the bat.


by wasder on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:47:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is it Appalachia or the Working Class that is (2.00 / 2)

Obama has won white voters without a college degree in ONE STATE - Wisconsin.  He didn't even win them in Illinois.

Focusing on Obama's overall wins among white voters misses the point and is a good way to make sure the problem gets ignored from now until November.  Sure, Obama has no problem at all winning the votes of whites with college degrees, and that's great.  But when he's losing the ones without college degrees, in state after state after state, it's disappointing to see people conclude that it's some kind of "regional" problem.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:21:27 AM EST

Re: Is it Appalachia or the Working Class that is (none / 0)

There's a difference in losing the group by a few % and losing them by 40%.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:27:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is it Appalachia or the Working Class that is (2.00 / 3)

Look, in Illinois he won the state as a whole by 32% and still lost this demographic.  That's a problem.

If you would rather argue that the voters of Appalachia are hopelessly backwards than actually focus on what we need to do to win in November, you're only making the problem worse.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:32:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is it Appalachia or the Working Class that is (2.00 / 2)

It's only a problem if you think they won't vote for a Democrat. Why would voters in Appalachia be hopelessly backwards? Perhaps they voted FOR Clinton because they LIKE Clinton. Isn't that what you're supposed to do?


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:42:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is it Appalachia or the Working Class that is (2.00 / 4)

Yes, they like Clinton, because she is running the sort of campaign that appeals to them.  Obama needs to figure out how to the same, and he hasn't solved it yet.  These are not voters who automatically pull the Democratic lever, they have to be given a reason.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:45:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is it Appalachia or the Working Class that is (2.00 / 1)

Well Illinois voters will pretty much pull the D lever. Being from and in Illinois McCain is doomed.

30% of Appalachian Dems voted for Bush in 2004 so they're definitely not a reliable voting group. However, Obama can increase the turnout in PA and OH and overcome any defections in the region that way.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:50:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is it Appalachia or the Working Class that is (none / 0)

"Why would voters in Appalachia be hopelessly backwards?"

What was the guys name who wrote that book "What's the Matter With Kansas?"  Statistically, LIV vote against their own economic interests every damned time because the 'thuglicans trot out teh gay, scary brown people and the flag.  I think voters in Appalachia voted against Obama rather than for Clinton.  

I love me some Hillary, but she is fooling herself if she thinks she can carry any state in the South or Appalachia in the fall.  Obama is not fooling himself because he already knows it's not going to happen.  The 50 state strategy is a beautiful idea, but I will be thrilled beyond description if we can flip even one Southern state this fall.


No politician ever lost an election because he underestimated the intelligence of the American public. - PT Barnum, paraphrased...
by jarhead5536 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:43:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is it Appalachia or the Working Class that is (none / 0)

Wow---this is some great discussion here, seriously. This is exactly the kind of frank analytical thinking we need to engage in here to win in the fall. I don't necessarily think its a bad thing that OBama loses the white, non-college educated crowd so long as he doesn't lose it by a huge amount and provided he can bring in enough new voters to counteract the losses.


by wasder on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:50:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is it Appalachia or the Working Class that is (none / 0)

The thing is, blue collar whites are the largest single demographic in the American electorate.  Whoever wins them, wins.  Obama's coalition can get him the nomination, sure.  It got McGovern the nomination also.  It won't get him the Presidency.

It is very easy for the liberal intelligentsia to sit on the coasts and think, "Well, everyone I know lives in the city, has a creative class job, is fine with gay people, went to college, etc.  This is what America is, and we all support Obama."  The rest of the country does not remotely resemble that lifestyle.  I know, because I have lived in big urban centers and tiny, conservative laden communities alike.  Different planets entirely.


No politician ever lost an election because he underestimated the intelligence of the American public. - PT Barnum, paraphrased...
by jarhead5536 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:58:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Yes, but... (2.00 / 1)

We don't need the majority of blue collar whites.  We CAN still lose them by a few points and make up for it everywhere else... 90% of blacks is a good start.

If we can resolve the nomination reasonably amicably and unleash The Big Dog on Appalachia to talk up Obama (you just know that, in any other year, Bill would have been thrilled to campaign for the Hope candidate), then we may be able to make some inroads.

Sometimes you just need the right messenger.  I will agree right now that Obama himself isn't the right guy to be talking to West Virginians, but I think the Clintons could sell his ticket to the voters there based on the issues that are important to them.  There's a lot to work with, if you know how to talk to people.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:29:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yes, but... (none / 0)

Why would BC campaign for BO?
I can see why Hillary would, but give me a reason why  Bill should?
by J Rae on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:59:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yes, but... (none / 0)

Bill is the de facto head of the Democratic Party (as opposed to the DNC) as the most recent living Democratic President.  Also, he loves to campaign, he will help tremendously where Obama is weak, and it will demonstrate unity to a divided progressive electorate.


No politician ever lost an election because he underestimated the intelligence of the American public. - PT Barnum, paraphrased...
by jarhead5536 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 03:18:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

bs stats... (none / 0)

let's see your numbers on that... he took the no college degree demographic regardless of race by 25% in Illinois, won the demographic solidly in Vermont and Utah... let alone the fact that you're excluding every caucus state including ones in which his cross-demographic support is quite evident (Washington, Minnesota, Idaho...)


by Casuist on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:54:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: bs stats... (2.00 / 2)

I provided a link.  I don't understand your argument about caucus states, unless you're saying Obama can overcome his problem with this demographic by making the November election a caucus.

Year after year, Democrats lose elections by failing to connect with this particular demographic.  The amount of willful blindness on display here is just astonishing.  Does anyone here actually want to win, or are we just going to close our eyes and pretend that as soon as Hillary drops out everything will be magically wonderful?


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Wed May 14, 2008 at 10:12:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is it Appalachia or the Working Class that is (none / 0)

So, if he wins the white vote in Oregon (didn'the in Washington as well) will that show he has had a game changer?


by IowaMike on Wed May 14, 2008 at 10:13:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is it Appalachia or the Working Class that is (2.00 / 2)

If he wins white voters without college degrees, yes, that will make 2 states where he has done so.  I very much doubt he will do so.  You keep trying to confuse matters by referring to the "white vote" in general, which isn't what my comment was about.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Wed May 14, 2008 at 10:16:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is it Appalachia or the Working Class that is (none / 0)

if he wins the white working class vote, will that be a game changer?


by IowaMike on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:44:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

My first impression... (2.00 / 2)

I get the feeling that it's education as the strongest component of the issue; West Virginia, and most of Appalachia, has a drastically lower high school graduation rates than most of the rest of the country.  Those states outside of the region that do have similar graduation rates also have large African American population segments.  If you look at the non-black areas of these states (Alabama & Mississippi, for example), I think that they'll be voting with similar trends as Appalachia.

This isn't so much a racial thing (though race is certainly a part of it) as it is an issue with Obama's intellectualism.  If a segment of the electorate hasn't been to college and wasn't so hot on high school, either, they're not going to appreciate some multicultural egghead lecturing them on what the country needs, when they don't feel like they need anything fancy... just a job, values, and good friends and family getting together to do the things they like to do.

The challenge is to frame the debate in terms of not speaking down to these people and addressing their issues.  How many of them have fathers, brothers, sisters, mothers, uncles, aunts, or cousins at war overseas?  How much are they paying for food or gas?  How many have lost their jobs over the last eight years and had a hard time getting a new one?

These are the issues that we need to hook these people back with.  John McCain is weak on all of them; his only defense is his war hero image, but these voters hate it when people reveal themselves as hypocrites.  Get out that McCain would rather a soldier do six tours instead of two before getting education benefits under the new G.I. Bill, people are going to start questioning his priorities.

I hope that was clear.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:24:20 AM EST

Re: My first impression... (none / 0)

Excellent analysis.  However, among these voters, values supercede all other considerations, which is actually an incredible fact.  Republicans will win these voters the same way they always have - the three G's.


No politician ever lost an election because he underestimated the intelligence of the American public. - PT Barnum, paraphrased...
by jarhead5536 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:46:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Possibly (2.00 / 1)

If there was a year where we could override that or at least make inroads, it's probably this year.  All we need is for one mainstream news organization to decide they'll take a crack at McCain's infidelity or his rampant lying, and it will start to raise questions.

Not saying this is likely, but it is possible.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:34:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My first impression... (none / 0)

Draco--great thoughtful analysis. Yes, I am in agreement that what likely differentiates Appalachia from some other regions is the lower rates of higher education. But how then does Obama reach these voters? Yes, his solutions are more likely than McCain's to provide them with the decent job and the security they need in their lives but McCain has the more familiar and comfortable public persona for these voters. How do you think Obama goes about reaching these voters without turning them off?


by wasder on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:02:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Well, my best advice... (none / 0)

...depends on how the primary sorts itself out.

In my perfect world, we resolve the primary in the first week of June, arrange for Clinton to be Majority Leader of the Senate or something similar, and unleash her and the Big Dog on Appalachia.  Nobody is more convincing than Bill Clinton when he's talking about making people's lives better.  When the Clintons say that they'd be better off under Obama for reasons X, Y, and Z, and try to diffuse any racial or religious hysteria with personal guarantees that he's not a Muslim Manchurian candidate, it won't bring everybody, but it can help.

Sometimes the messenger is just as important as the message.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:40:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well, my best advice... (none / 0)

I don't see why the Clinton's would do this if she were not to be the VP.


by wasder on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:45:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Why not? (none / 0)

She's given all indication that she desperately wants a Democratic president and will work nonstop for Obama if he's the nominee.

Unless you're buying the "sore loser" argument, but quite frankly I don't see her doing that, because she, herself will win big if Democrats win in the fall.  She'll be part of a powerful majority party and able to enact all that legislation that she's been sitting on for eight years.  She'll finally get health care passed (and be on the committee that does it, making her arguably more powerful than Obama in this regard) and able to take a leadership role in arranging for withdrawl from Iraq.

People seem to think that Clinton will die or retire if she's not the nominee or VP nominee.  This is naive; further, the Clintons always want to come out on top and are perfectly willing to work with former rivals to make that happen.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:51:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Regional though there's an age component (2.00 / 1)

as the Appalachian area is older demographically.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:25:33 AM EST

Re: Appalachia or the Working Class (none / 0)

The gist of things regarding working class voters which I'm picking up from reading various online articles and listening to the cable news channels exploring and discussing the W. Virginia primary results and exit polling data is this:

1. Race factors into the results to the extent that they simply feel more comfortable voting for someone they readily identify with so to speak, which is not the same thing as racism.

2. A majority believe that Obama shares Rev. Wright's values.

3. With regard to your "Appalachian region votes so differently than the rest of the country" opening statement, it's an oversimplification which isn't supported by the impirical evidence. If you look at the voting patterns and exit poll data going back as far as, and even including Iowa, it's been there all along. It's just that now the situation is becoming more pronounced.


by phoenixdreamz on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:26:34 AM EST

Re: Appalachia or the Working Class (2.00 / 1)

So you are saying that its not Appalachia but the fact that this vote happened after Bittergate and Wright and therefore these same voters that Obama did OK with in Iowa are now voting against him in droves? This is possible I suppose but it doesn't then explain what is happening in Oregon or SD or MT. Probably there is a combination of our factors--some of it must be particular to Appalachia and there probably is some overall nationwide lessening in his strenght among working class whites since the above mentioned controversies. thanks for a thoughtful post.


by wasder on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:05:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Appalachia or the Working Class (none / 0)

Thanks for your thoughful diary & response also.

I can't speak to SD & MT, but I did catch one pundit on cable news this morning who mentioned that Oregon is another state that's kind of in a class by itself in that liberal, upscale professionals are more predominate there than in most other states.


by phoenixdreamz on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:21:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The ISSUE is HILLARY (1.00 / 1)

 She is fracturing the party intentionally, even though her chance of winning is .02%.

 Obama won't be running against the Clinton's, plural, in the fall.

 Meanwhile she continues to damage the presumptive nominee. If she or her surrogates what 'white' one more time....... well she is starting to sound a lot like a white Al Sharpton.


overthrow the government~participate
by missliberties on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:34:41 AM EST

Re: The ISSUE is HILLARY (2.00 / 1)

You echo Tweety's Hillary hatred talking points perfectly, especially his "she is starting to sound a lot like a white Al Sharpton" from yesterday, which by the way was laughed at and rejected even by pundits who favor Obama.


by phoenixdreamz on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:40:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The ISSUE is HILLARY (2.00 / 2)

It must be awfully nice to believe that everything is Hillary's fault.  Saves the trouble of actually thinking.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:47:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The ISSUE is HILLARY (none / 0)

And this has what exactly to do with the current discussion?  Or do you just jump into random diaries and vomit hatred?


No politician ever lost an election because he underestimated the intelligence of the American public. - PT Barnum, paraphrased...
by jarhead5536 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:48:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Again, Clinton supporters.... (none / 0)

The only time a divided national convention lead to a victory was for FDR, and we had the Great Depression going on.

A divided convention means no matter who gets the nod, will lose. It will forever tarnish the Clinton legacy and will prevent her from getting the nomination in 4 years.

Is that what you want? Or would you prefer that this is over by early June so we can beat McCain?


by IowaMike on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:48:49 AM EST

Re: Is it Appalachia or the Working Class (none / 0)

WV better get on the Obama band wagon or they will be left at the station if they want their state to be in with the next president of the US.  WV made a bad mistake last night in going with Clinton.  It may come back to haunt WV.  WV voters can make it up by voting for Obama in the GE.  I hope that they soon realize this.


by Spanky on Wed May 14, 2008 at 10:06:58 AM EST

Re: Is it Appalachia or the Working Class (none / 0)

You know this "threat" your with us or else is the way Bush operates.

Goodies for the states that voted for him, a big F*U to states that didn't.

Thanks for pointing out that you support this kind of politics.


by J Rae on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:09:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I don't know about Appalachia (none / 0)

as a  whole but West Virginia, unfortunately, is a very depressing state. The extremes are something of a phenomena. It is a very aged population, an extremely poor population and they have the lowest amount of college graduates in the country. An eighth grade education is not unusual for certain pockets in the state. This is remarkable in and of itself.
Which begs a question. What is the literacy rate of the electorate? Literacy is vital to a well-informed electorate, so it would almost be safe to assume that most of the voters there, were not voting on the issues but on name recognition.

They also seem to respond primarily to smaller, one-on-one type forums and not the ten thousand plus arena crowds that Obama commands. But, certainly, with a population that is overwhelmingly poverty-stricken and ill-informed, there will be unique issues that would need to be addressed.

Fortunately, WV is the exception and not the rule.


"Beauty, more than bitterness, makes the heart break." Sara Teasdale
by april34fff on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:14:48 AM EST

Re: Is it Appalachia or the Working (2.00 / 1)

Yep. Everyone who voted for Clinton is uneducated and illiterate. Never mind that she actually carried college grads here too.


by Mayor McCheese on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:30:24 AM EST

Re: Is it Appalachia or the Working (2.00 / 1)

My mom will be so disappointed to learn that I must return my two college degrees, since clearly I am a Hillary supporter.


No politician ever lost an election because he underestimated the intelligence of the American public. - PT Barnum, paraphrased...
by jarhead5536 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:51:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is it Appalachia or the Working (none / 0)

I don't think this is what the poster was trying to say. More like what Dracomicron was saying above: there must be something to the education gap in WV that makes their voters so particularly turned off to Obama. This is why I am so annoyed by analyses that suggest that Obama can't connect with whites nationwide using WV as an example.


by wasder on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:11:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is it Appalachia or the Working (none / 0)

But those are the facts. West Virginia is 49th in lowest per capita income, 50th in the percentage of residents with at least 16 years of education, and 20 percent of the population is illiterate. Alot of the economically deprived vote overwhelmingly for Hillary and republicans.


"Beauty, more than bitterness, makes the heart break." Sara Teasdale
by april34fff on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:35:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is it Appalachia or the Working (none / 0)

But the facts are that Clinton won even among the higher educated voters in WVA.


by Mayor McCheese on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:04:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Is it Appalachia or the Working Class (none / 0)

Working Class, Middle Class is Hillary's strong suit and it always has been.

That's why everyone always talked about Hillary having the base of the party.  Wokring Americans, middle class is the base of the Democrats.  

When the middle class feels they're not being represented by giving a "snotty", or "Mightier than thou", "condescending", "Elite", they turn to the Republicans.  FACT.  And B O's policies reAffirm that.  And no matter how much he wants to spin that he's campaigning for the Middle, the middle is not some affluent that doesn't want to say they're a Dem.

Hillary will win.


by LindaSFNM on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:50:03 AM EST

Wrong (none / 0)

the "base of the party" is certainly not Reagan Democrats.  There's a reason they're called Reagan Democrats.  Think before you type.


by JJE on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:06:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wrong (none / 0)

You are right to call her on Reagan Democrats but still there must be a balance. I personally don't care (and might even prefer) if Obama was to lose the white vote but win the election. To do this he needs to run respectably amongst blue collar whites and bring in a new generation of voters. This is the kind of coalition I would like to see.


by wasder on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:13:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I agree (none / 0)

Obama cannot get completely slaughtered among low-income whites, though he need not win them.

Times and demographics change.  That's why the McGovern analogy is flawed.


by JJE on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:16:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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