It's Wednesday Morning... let's get real!

by btchakir, Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:31:11 AM EST

OK... Hillary won a big one with the uneducated, all white majority in West Virginia. Then she gave a follow-up speech which indicated she was still heading for the nomination.

But with too few primaries to go and Obama only 143 delegates away from the nomination, her future as the presidential candidate is just not there. The numbers are against her:

Total Delegates     Obama 1882 - Clinton 1714  Obama +168
Super Delegates     Obama 284 -  Clinton 272   Obama +12
Pledged Dels.    Obama 1598 - Clinton 1442  Obama +156
Popular Vote     Obama 49.4%- Clinton 47.4% Obama +2.0%

She'll fight for her results in Florida and Michigan, but is likely to get less than she wants. She'll win in Kentucky and Ohio, but will lose Oregon and Montana. And the Super Delegates will probably know how to count and will go with Obama, too.

She's low on funds, but will lend herself more. And if she gets up to the Convention without paying that money back, she loses it. She can afford it, however, when you count the money Bill has made, they have plenty.

We know the Democrats should be putting all their energy and expenses against McCain now, but Hillary's not letting up and it is to McCain's advantage.

It is to the Party's advantage for the Super Delegates to come aboard for Obama now.

Under The LobsterScope




Tags: Election, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Super Delegates (all tags)

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Face it. It's going at least to next week, (1.33 / 3)

and probably to June 3rd. There are a great many superdelegates that won't commit before then. They're going to give this every chance to play out her way, so that they have the cover of ending it in around 20 days.

It ends next week after the Oregon/Kentucky split only if Hillary decides that's a good exit ramp, and I don't expect her to do that. Otherwise it ends after all the contests are over.


John McCain supports privatizing Social Security.
by Travis Stark on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:37:06 AM EST

Re: Face it. It's going at least to next week, (2.00 / 2)

I agree....

I would caution anyone against making the case that the people that voted yesterday are all uneducated... Having been there, it is a mix of socioeconomic and educational backgrounds....


Like the nominee, don't like the nominee... Our nominee is still better than John McCain...
by JenKinFLA on Wed May 14, 2008 at 08:59:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

OK McCheese (none / 0)

Some day I see a time when rating abuse against Obama supporters will actually be policed here. (Call me a starry eyed idealist.)


John McCain supports privatizing Social Security.
by Travis Stark on Wed May 14, 2008 at 10:59:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

And speaking of reality... (none / 0)

State    Obama    Clinton
Idaho    82.2%     17.8%
Hawaii    76.2%     23.8%
District of Columbia    75.8%     24.2%
Alaska    74.6%     25.4%
Kansas    74.2%     25.8%
Washington    68.4%     31.6%
Georgia    68.1%     31.9%
Minnesota    67.4%     32.6%
Colorado    67.3%     32.7%
Illinois    66.3%     33.7%
Virginia    64.2%     35.8%
North Dakota    62.6%     37.4%
Mississippi    62.2%     37.8%
Maryland    61.9%     38.1%
Wyoming    61.9%     38.1%
Louisiana    61.7%     38.3%
Vermont    60.6%     39.4%

(Thanks to tonnyb over at DKos for this.)


John McCain supports privatizing Social Security.
by Travis Stark on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:47:04 AM EST

Re: And speaking of reality... (none / 0)

Obama 248  EC votes
Clinton  281 EC votes

Reality is that Clinton beats McCain and Obama does not.


For Obama it now becomes: Faith, hope and CHANGE! And the greatest of these is Change!
by TeresaInPa on Wed May 14, 2008 at 08:14:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And speaking of reality... (2.00 / 1)

The numbers above reflect what actually happened. What you've presented does not.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Wed May 14, 2008 at 08:30:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Reality is this electoral college math's bogus (2.00 / 1)

That's the reality. There is no meaning to this until Hillary drops out, and right now, just since we've realized he'll be the nominee, he's creaming McCain in the national polls. Not much meaning there either, but it's an indicator.


John McCain supports privatizing Social Security.
by Travis Stark on Wed May 14, 2008 at 08:30:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And speaking of reality... (none / 0)

Reality is that neither of our candidates have actually run a race against McCain, so your data is unreliable....


Like the nominee, don't like the nominee... Our nominee is still better than John McCain...
by JenKinFLA on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:00:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And speaking of reality... (none / 0)

OK, Clinton gets to be president of MyDD-land?

Otherwise, Jeromes silly front page chart is just his spin on it....


"No reason to get excited," the thief, he kindly spoke, "There are many here among us who feel that life is but a joke....
by WashStateBlue on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:13:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And speaking of reality... (none / 0)

The reality is that Hillary won't get the chance to face McCain.
by Gene In PA on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:33:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Don't be a tool... (none / 0)

...if you took the same projections in May of 1992, 2000 or 2004 they would look nothing like what actually happened.


by Lieber on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:59:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Are There No WhiteWorking People in States Barack (none / 0)

already won?

Are there no blue-collar, white-working class people in Iowa, Maryland, Virginia, Vermont, Kansas, Washington, Delaware, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, South Carolina, Colorado and the 30+ states that Barack won?

Or in these 30+ states that Barack won, are there only high-class, surburban people of leisure, college graduates and African-Americans?

And, is that what Someone want us to believe -- that in the 30+ states Barack has won, that there are no blue-collar, white-working class people in any of those states? I thought that white people were a majority in America, not a minority!


by bacalove on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:58:26 AM EST

Yup (2.00 / 1)

It's true. 70% of America is all Volvo dealerships and Starbucks.


Unable to rec or rate
Still supporting Obama
Still not putting up with "preening" posts
by jaiwithani on Wed May 14, 2008 at 08:07:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm petitioning to have... (none / 0)

older, microbrew drinking, white guys added to the Obama stereotype. I'm feeling unloved.


John McCain supports privatizing Social Security.
by Travis Stark on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:01:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

And all the white working class people are leaving (2.00 / 1)

Oregon as we speak. :-)


John McCain supports privatizing Social Security.
by Travis Stark on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:59:35 AM EST

there you go being a perfect illustration of why (2.00 / 1)

democrats lose time after time.

Get a clue, she won the "educated and wealthier democrats in WV too....

He is losing groups he used to win and it is about him, not the education level of the voters.


For Obama it now becomes: Faith, hope and CHANGE! And the greatest of these is Change!
by TeresaInPa on Wed May 14, 2008 at 08:12:46 AM EST

Will you still say that... (none / 0)

if he wins OR? One of the whitest states in the Union?


by Tatan on Wed May 14, 2008 at 10:03:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's Wednesday Morning... let's get real! (none / 0)

ABC news reporting

               with MI/FL    without MI/FL                                
.
Clinton    1712    16,691,403    15,492,108
Obama    1887    16,647,965    16,071,751
.


Wisdom Is The Reward For Listening Over A Lifetime
by gunner on Wed May 14, 2008 at 08:30:26 AM EST

Re: It's Wednesday Morning... let's get real! (none / 0)

No one is going to include those numbers. Get real.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Wed May 14, 2008 at 08:31:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's Wednesday Morning... let's get real! (2.00 / 1)

First, popular vote is meaningless in the Democratic primary. I just thought I'd mention that.

Second, Michigan is never going to be resolved in a manner that gives Hillary all the votes and Obama none. It's just never going to happen.

Third, this is a temporary spike in her popular vote and will be entirely erased next Tuesday.

Fourth, there's no way supers are going to count Puerto Rico popular vote as a factor. They get to have a primary and choose delegates, but they don't get to vote in the general election, so there' no way Puerto Rico gets to be a deciding factor based upon a metric that we don't use anyway.


John McCain supports privatizing Social Security.
by Travis Stark on Wed May 14, 2008 at 08:35:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's Wednesday Morning... let's get real! (none / 0)

Keep at it.  You're losing more votes for your candidate every day.


by joanneleon on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:03:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

How is pointing out the truth losing votes for (none / 0)

my candidate?


John McCain supports privatizing Social Security.
by Travis Stark on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:11:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

This diary comes from a West Virginian for Obama (2.00 / 2)

who says, on his blog:


 I'm going to bed with a headache...
...because I live in a state of uneducated racists!

and lots of other interesting things on that lovely blog
http://underthelobsterscope.blogspot.com /


by joanneleon on Wed May 14, 2008 at 08:56:39 AM EST

Re: It's Wednesday Morning... let's get real! (2.00 / 1)

I think there seems to be a consensus to include Florida these days. The difference is less than 1%.

So, who can seriously ask for a person who is 1% beyind in the popular with more states to go and ask them to quit?


by Jaz on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:45:45 AM EST

Re: It's Wednesday Morning... let's get real! (none / 0)

It ain't over until the lady in the pantsuit says it is.


by Caldonia on Wed May 14, 2008 at 10:29:02 AM EST


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