MyDD :: Democrats in Denial

Democrats in Denial

by STUBALL, Wed May 14, 2008 at 03:56:11 AM EST

Despite the disdain shown for Hillary Clinton's victory tonight in West Virginia by old media, it remains difficult for any dispassionate observer to pretend that Barack Obama, despite his obvious political talent and rhetorical gifts, does not have a problem with certain segments of the voting public he will need to win in November. I am not suggesting that he cannot win; the Republican brand is so tarnished that any popular Democrat would be favored. Despite David Axelrod's proclamation that Obama does almost as well with white voters as John Kerry did in 2004, there are serious problems that Obama will have to overcome in order to win the presidency.

A large portion of Obama's white support comes from younger, unreliable and first-time voters; Obama continues to underperform with elderly white voters and downscale white voters; A disproportionate segment of the most activist base of the Democratic party - primary voters - have indicated that that they would either vote for John McCain or abstain in November; Obama's has had great difficulty winning Hispanic and Asian voters; John Kerry lost to George W. Bush by 3,500,000 votes in 2004.

So why are superdelegates flocking to Obama. Let's discuss it on the flip...

There are almost 200 superdelegates yet to commit to a candidate. They are almost certainly aware of the aforementioned. A great many of them may believe that Hillary Clinton is a better general election candidate than Barack Obama (as do I and those who have studied battleground state polls). Hillary Clinton considerably outperforms Barack Obama in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. She defeats John McCain in both Florida and Ohio where McCain beats Obama. Obama's camp offers visions of a new and different electoral map, substituting Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana and Georgia for the three traditional large swing states. Superdelegates know that if Obama were to win Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana or Georgia, he wouldn't need them; it would be a landslide.

Nevertheless, the Democratic primary battle presents superdelegates with a conundrum. If they opt for Obama, they are knowingly selecting the weaker candidate. If they swing the nomination to Clinton, they risk the disaffection of many young voters and African Americans. If they do not commit at all and abstain on the first ballot at the convention the party may never recover from the resultant discord.

Were I a superdelegate, despite my desire to see Clinton win and my skepticism about Obama's coalition, I would probably select Obama. The long-term damage to the party if Obama's supporters believe that the nomination has been hijacked , IMHO, would be far worse than the reduced (not eliminated) chance of winning in 2008.

The sad irony of this primary has been the emergence of the first viable female candidate and the first (sorry, Jesse) viable African American candidate. Had we put up a generic Democrat (Evan Bayh comes to mind as the most generic of Democrats) we would not be having these discussions and Democrats would be highly favored in November. Only the Democrats can turn an embarrassment of riches into a barrel of trouble.

Tags: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, superdelegates (all tags)

Permalink :: 37 Comments :: Post a Comment

no money (1.00 / 2)

Clinton is so strong she's bankrupt.

20,000,000 in the hole.

NEXT!

"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!

by Al Rodgers on Wed May 14, 2008 at 04:09:45 AM EST

Obama is so OWNED he's rich.. (none / 0)

Outspending Hillary 4-1

Lots of money in healthcare denial.

See WHY Obama's plan won't work demonstrated here:

http://demonstrations.wolfram.com/Advers eSelection/

Universal healthcare IS a Democratic value
It's been defeated
Obama has the best $PIN that money can buy.

by architek on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:26:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Democrats in Denial (none / 0)

She has supporters. Let her supporters fund her.

Obama/Warner 2008

by MissVA on Wed May 14, 2008 at 04:24:16 AM EST

Re: Democrats in Denial (2.00 / 2)

Obama is winning Asian voters. He won them in Hawaii and Guam and he is now beating her with them in CA.
They know him now. So don't play that BS.

White women over 50 are HRC only supporters. That is all she has.

Obama/Warner 2008

by MissVA on Wed May 14, 2008 at 04:25:31 AM EST

Re: Democrats in Denial (none / 0)

If that's true wonder why you think that is?

by 12 dogs and a blog on Wed May 14, 2008 at 05:12:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Democrats in Denial (none / 0)

How would you know whether he's beating her with Asians in CA? You don't know. In the only real test there has been in CA she hammered him.

by ottovbvs on Wed May 14, 2008 at 08:30:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Democrats in Denial (none / 0)

Not anymore... recent polling says that he would crush her there... CA only went Clinton's way because of early voting when she was the presumptive nominee...

by LordMike on Wed May 14, 2008 at 08:41:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Another big factor (2.00 / 1)

Was that, for the early voting especially, Edwards had not yet pulled out of the race. I think his California coalition trended toward Obama.

accepting McLettuce is like being 9 years old and forced to eat your own cooking

by Sychotic1 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:29:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

White Voters... (2.00 / 6)

In Missouri, Washington, Colorado, Nebraska, Idaho, Wyoming, Indiana (where he overperformed), Maine, Vermont, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, ...

Oh, wait, you're only talking about a particular subset of white voters.

Never mind then.

by RedDan on Wed May 14, 2008 at 04:31:58 AM EST

please present us with the stats... (none / 0)

that suggest that Obama will need to win a greater proportion - in the general election - of low-income, uneducated Appalachian white voters than has been indicated by recent electoral results, keeping in mind that there has been no electoral result measuring him against the Republican nominee.

by Casuist on Wed May 14, 2008 at 04:32:26 AM EST

it's not a facts-based argument... (2.00 / 1)

it's a simple re-running of the last war (i mean, election). ok, it's not even the last election, but more like the election of 1980, but you know that bill clinton has always been obsessed with the bubba vote -- more so because he didn't win it.

look, barack's supporters know better than this. hillary and her supporters are focused on the one demographic where they feel she does better than barack. they want to argue on their terms. notice that not one of them -- not even terry mcauliffe -- can give you a path to hillary's victory. and they hate the math.

best thing to do is to concede hillary's people their bubba fix. one more week and there's no more bubba vote to be had...

"I believe he can win. If he runs a campaign anywhere like the terrific campaign he ran to get the nomination, he'll win handily." - Ed Rendell

by bored now on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:47:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: it's not a facts-based argument... (none / 0)

Excellent points. If only this community could understand that primaries operate very differently than general elections...but when a side grasps at straws in desperation, they latch on to whatever flimsy argument seems to work for the moment and this one has presented itself thanks to the demographics of WV and KY.

by oliver cromwell on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:34:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

and just to mention it.... (2.00 / 4)

A great many of them may believe that Hillary Clinton is a better general election candidate than Barack Obama (as do I and those who have studied battleground state polls).

Given that Clinton started out the superdelegate race 100 ahead before a single vote was cast for either candidate, that she now finds herself behind in the superdelegate count, and Obama has taken 80% of the superdelegate endorsements since super tuesday...

I wouldn't bet on them seeing things from your perspective.

by Casuist on Wed May 14, 2008 at 04:35:37 AM EST

Re: Democrats in Denial (2.00 / 1)

What is it about Obama supporters that they cannot accept any criticism of their candidate, however valid and obvious? No wonder some Hillary supporters say they would never vote for him. I am a Hillary supporter who has just written a diary stating that were I a superdelegate I would nevertheless pledge my vote to Obama. And this still does not satisfy you. So let me rephrase...

The West Virginia results tonight were a typo. Obama actually got 67% of the vote. The pro-Hillary media deceived us into believing the converse. I am a fool for failing to recognize the greatness that is Barack Obama. He can truly do no wrong. He is the one I have been waiting for. I have been so blind. I would gladly sacrifice my firstborn and all my worldly goods for the opportunity to vote for him. My heartfelt apologies to all whom I have offended by even suggesting that He harbors even the slightest defect. I'd grovel some more but I have to wash my mouth out with soap and go to a reeducation camp.

by STUBALL on Wed May 14, 2008 at 04:39:05 AM EST

Re: Democrats in Denial (2.00 / 3)

dude calm down it was just ONE state

I would say at this point we're starting to see a little desperation on the part of the woman who I support... NY Governor Paterson

by obamaovermccain on Wed May 14, 2008 at 04:40:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Being PAID to do so.. (1.00 / 1)

Paid bloggers do that, they repeat the same arguments over and over and they ignore conflicting viewpoints or attack the posters.

Look up "reputation management" its big business now.

"Viral marketing"

Work at home, on the Internet, set your own hours.

Universal healthcare IS a Democratic value
It's been defeated
Obama has the best $PIN that money can buy.

by architek on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:32:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

look just because you get paid (none / 0)

to blog does not mean every one does...

-- be excellent to each other

by kindthoughts on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:24:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Democrats in Denial (1.00 / 2)

Well, keep in mind that they are Right and Hillary is Always Wrong. They are all Hope, despite their resentment and entitlement. And Obama is Change, and a liberal, despite being the candidate of the conservative Southern Democratic establishment that semi-rigged and handed him all those Red State caucuses.

If you look at the coalition that backs him and the policy platform that means, Obama is the second coming of Jimmy Carter. That's all you really need to know. Sure, they all pretend otherwise and even believe it's all the road to Hard Rock Candy Mountain. But it's really not reality based in many ways, and in the end that coalition is more about money and career advancement than much else.

by killjoy on Wed May 14, 2008 at 04:56:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Democrats in Denial (none / 0)

dude get your talking points straight he is not Jimmy Carter he is Michael Dukakis.

sheesh!

I would say at this point we're starting to see a little desperation on the part of the woman who I support... NY Governor Paterson

by obamaovermccain on Wed May 14, 2008 at 05:00:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Democrats in Denial (none / 0)

He likes it Greek? ;-)

No, do get a clue-in about the last three candidates and campaigns of the 1976 election. The parallels are pretty apt. The person who came in third in 1976 won handily in 1980 and 1984.

by killjoy on Wed May 14, 2008 at 05:23:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Democrats in Denial (2.00 / 4)

Stu,

The diarist made an assertion about the demographics in primaries with respect to Obama, Clinton and "the white vote"...

Unfortunately, that assertion only has any weight in particular places. In OTHER places, that assertion is flat out wrong.

Therefore, one cannot make that assertion and expect people to accept it as "fact"...

There is nothing "cultish" about disagreeing with such an assertion.

Look: In PA, in OH, in WVa, and in Western VA, In NC, to a lesser extent in IN, in MS, in AL, in AR, in TX... that assertion appears to carry a lot of weight. Fine.

But look again: In WA, in VT, in ME, in CT, in CO, in WY, in NV, in NM, in Eastern VA, in DE...well, suddenly that assertion is not looking so accurate or "true"

What does that tell you?

That simple color demographics are not the story, and that people who claim so are doing so out of either ignorance or wishful thinking.

What is wrong with disagreeing with that?

by RedDan on Wed May 14, 2008 at 05:06:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Democrats in Denial (2.00 / 1)

The white vote never came through for WJC, Gore or Kerry.
They never did. He was carried by Latinos and Black vote.
That is the truth.

These fabled 'white working class' never for Democrats at all.

Obama/Warner 2008

by MissVA on Wed May 14, 2008 at 05:43:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

GOP crossover voters who wont vote Dem in Nov. (none / 0)

have been a big part of the Obama thing. They are voting for him for one reason only, they want to keep Bush administration figures OUT OF JAIL.

Universal healthcare IS a Democratic value
It's been defeated
Obama has the best $PIN that money can buy.

by architek on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:37:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

not true... (none / 0)

they were strong democrats in the old fdr coalition, the one where blacks and women were kept at the back of the line. now what we once called reagan democrats are real swing voters -- and more to the point, the voters most influenced by wedge issues. you may not consider them democrats because they don't swear absolute fidelity to the party, but they are certainly open to voting for democrats. let's not write them off but let's not obsess about them, either.

look, the one thing the clintons have consistently argued is that there is only one path to victory for democrats and they are the only ones who know it. many democrats accept that reasoning, but not all. it is about how you build your voter coalition for winning, and the one thing we know is that barack has been much better at doing that than hillary. only those emotionally invested in hillary would overlook her stunningly poor campaign this winter and believe that she could actually beat a well-funded, well-known republican...

"I believe he can win. If he runs a campaign anywhere like the terrific campaign he ran to get the nomination, he'll win handily." - Ed Rendell

by bored now on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:56:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

i would think it's profoundly stupid to generalize (2.00 / 1)

a population of millions of obama activists from the comments of a handful of argumentative people. i sincerely hope that you are more intelligent than that and this comment is one based on exasperation and not careful consideration...

"I believe he can win. If he runs a campaign anywhere like the terrific campaign he ran to get the nomination, he'll win handily." - Ed Rendell

by bored now on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:50:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Democrats in Denial (2.00 / 1)

But there were "generic" Democrats in the race; they got overwhelmingly pwn3d by Hillary and Barack.

I agree that "Generic Democrat" would beat Bob Dole 2.0 in this year's general election; but the victory would be perfunctory and marked by mediocre turnout. Either Clinton or Obama (especially Obama) will wax the floor with McCain, because they will generate actual enthusiasm in the voting public.

by Ray Radlein on Wed May 14, 2008 at 05:00:57 AM EST

Re: Democrats in Denial (2.00 / 3)

Openly racist voters haven't voted for the Dems since LBJ signed the Voting Rights Amendment in 1967.
The worry is that Repubs will employ a "Southern Strategy" against Obama, invoking key words and using scare-tactics to drum up racial prejudice in those who espouse color-blindness.
It's a shame that Clinton has already filled up the tank and revved up the engine of the "Southern Strategy" for the Repubs.
My money is still on Obama winning it without the racist vote.

Obama/Warner 2008

by MissVA on Wed May 14, 2008 at 06:30:29 AM EST

The reality is that Hillary (2.00 / 1)

can't win the election without the African-American vote.

Obama needs to try harder to win the white working class voters.

by puma on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:07:03 AM EST

Re: Democrats in Denial (none / 0)

all these red states are wet dream: start with Georgia - McCain Crashing Obama easily:
http://www.strategicvision.biz/political /georgia_poll_051408.htm
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_pres idential_election/georgia/election_2008_ georgia_presidential_election
Alabama:
http://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/apps /pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080429/OPINION0 1/804290302/1006/OPINION
NC:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/P PP_Release_051208.pdf
Indiana:
http://www.southbendtribune.com/apps/pbc s.dll/article?AID=/20080424/NEWS07/28427 2668/1129/News
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/article s/docs/presidentialpollrelease041808b.ht ml
Missuri:
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_conte nt/politics/election_20082/2008_presiden tial_election/missouri/election_2008_mis souri_presidential_election
NH:
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_conte nt/politics/election_20082/2008_presiden tial_election/new_hampshire/election_200 8_new_hampshire_presidential_election2
http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pd f/gsp2008_spring_nhpres50308.pdf
Nevada:
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_conte nt/politics/election_20082/2008_presiden tial_election/nevada/election_2008_nevad a_presidential_election
even WI:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_pres idential_election/wisconsin/election_200 8_wisconsin_presidential_election
FL:
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?Rele aseID=1173
OH:
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?Rele aseID=1173
PA:
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_conte nt/politics/election_20082/2008_presiden tial_election/pennsylvania/election_2008 _pennsylvania_presidential_election2

Welcome to a Landslide without white Working class, Latinos, Women, Seniors and holding-on sweeties

by engels on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:28:50 AM EST

Like polls taken five months before.. (2.00 / 1)

.. an election are really definitive.

Ignorance is weakness. Get strong.

by tbetz on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:36:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The supers are moving because... (2.00 / 4)

Obama has won on all metrics. Does he have issues in some demographics? Sure. But you can't really put much stock in those areas while Hillary is still in the race. Hillary supporters always make the mistake of jumping to the conclusion that because Hillary wins a particular demographic, that when she's gone from the race those votes will go to McCain. In the vast majority of cases they will not.

No, the supers are moving, and I expect you'll see a half dozen or more move today, because this thing is winding to a close. I have every expectation we'll take it to June 3rd, and then within a week after that it will end, mercifully.

John McCain supports privatizing Social Security.

by Travis Stark on Wed May 14, 2008 at 08:05:52 AM EST

Re: Democrats in Denial (2.00 / 4)

"young" and "unreliable" voters who were reliable enough to show up and vote in a democratic primary aren't likely to skip the general election. They're likely to show up in much larger numbers.

by Quinton on Wed May 14, 2008 at 08:07:59 AM EST

Re: Democrats in Denial (none / 0)

Look if Obama is the candidate he'll get my vote. But the complete unwillingness by Obama supporters to recognize that he has some vulnerability with a huge voting group is ridiculous. This is potentially a huge problem. Get out of denial.

by ottovbvs on Wed May 14, 2008 at 08:34:28 AM EST

Re: Democrats in Denial (none / 0)

And Hillary has a terrible problem with the black vote... which is even more critical to her winning than the blue collar white vote, since no democrat has won the white vote in 50 years.... and is unlikely to this time around....

Hillary has some serious problems, too... Yes, she's more competitive in Appalacia. Bully for her... She's got real problems in the midwest and left coast. She's losing to McCain in Oregon and WA according to recent polling....

Appalachia alone does not a president make... It's her only strength... old, undereducated voters... A lot of them will have passed on in 2012, so even if she were to manage to wrestle a victory this year, her re-election would already be in doubt.

by LordMike on Wed May 14, 2008 at 08:46:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Democrats in Denial (none / 0)

I will get out of denial if you will. Stop pretending Hillary still has a chance at winning this race and then we can discuss how to win the GE. Until then we can't have that conversation.

Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius

by Blue Neponset on Wed May 14, 2008 at 08:47:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Bayh (none / 0)

When we lose to McCain in November because we we nominated an inexperienced guy in Obama, don't tell me that I didn't warn you. I was for Bayh all the way until he ended his bid and he would have been the best candidate right now!

The Kentucky Democrat

by kydem on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:29:29 AM EST

Re: Democrats in Denial (none / 0)

Thank you Stuball for letting us in on your brilliant psycho powers. You alone can look in the mind of all these supers (By the way there are 240, not 200) and determine that they are voting for Obama when they know Clinton is the stonger candidate.

With your amazing mind reading potential, could you now look inside of the head of Bush and let us know when he intends to bomb Iran. Or better yet, look inside the head of McCain, and drag out some skeletons.

The state of denial here is just plain wierd. Supers are supporting Obama for all sorts of reasons, but the thought that all or most of them are supporting Obama when they think that he is the weaker candidate is something you can choose to believe. Would I want to tell a 5-year old that the tooth fairy isn't real? You too are entitled to your fantasy.

Thank goodness that these soap opera is finally closing. Expect 20-30 supers prior to Tuesday.

And expect 10-15 more before PR.

It's over.

by PatrickBradish on Wed May 14, 2008 at 10:32:11 AM EST

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