NE And TX Prove My Point on Caucuses

I have a confession to make. Despite being a political junkie, I was never quite sure exactly what a caucus is. That is because I have lived my life in Kentucky, a state that always uses closed primaries, where only a person registered in a particular party can decide the party's nominee. A state that uses secret ballots to choose their nominee.

Now, with all that has happened in this primary, I learned a lot more about caucuses. It disturbs me deeply that in this country there are places where a secret ballot isn't used. I believe that the caucus system invites voter intimidation, and skews the results in favor of the candidate with the most money, who can have more people at the caucus site to pressure people to caucus for their candidate.

I believe the results in two states that had both a caucus and a primary bear this out nicely. Texas and Nebraska both had caucuses AND primary. Admittedly, the Nebraska primary doesn't count in the delegate count on the Presidential, but it's results are very telling as to why we need to settle ALL elections with a secret ballot in this country.

First, lets look at the results of the Texas primary, and the Texas caucus. In the Texas primary the results shaped up like this:

Hillary Rodham Clinton  1,459,814  50.9%  94  
Barack Obama  1,358,785  47.4     99  
John Edwards  30,012  1.0     0    
Bill Richardson  10,769  0.4     0    
Joseph R. Biden Jr.  5,327  0.2     0    
Christopher J. Dodd  3,747  0.1     0    

100% reporting

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-gui de/2008/results/states/TX.html

Then on the same night, the caucus went this way:

Barack Obama  23,918  56.2%  Delegates included in totals above.  
Hillary Rodham Clinton  18,620  43.7    
Uncommitted  38  0.1    
Others  6  0.0    

41% reporting

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-gui de/2008/results/states/TX.html

First, notice the sheer volume of voters in the primary. It doesn't take a genius to figure out far more people voted in the primary than the caucus. What Americans need to ask themselves is how in the few hours between the primary and the caucus the results just magically flipped. It seems to me, if you get two different results from two different systems of voting, one of them must be invalid.

Now, last night in Nebraska they had a primary for Senate, with a Presidential primary that didn't award delegates. Lets look at the numbers in Obama's caucus win, and then last night's primary:

Obama: 68% (26,126 votes) (16 delegates)
Clinton: 32% (12,445) (8 delegates)
Vote margin: 13,681

http://www.nebraskademocrats.org/content /1391/2008-Presidential-Caucus-Results

However, just like in Texas, the secret ballot primary showed a completely different result:

Hillary Clinton - 43,614 or 47%
Mike Gravel -  3,864 or 4%
Barack Obama 46,279 or 49%

http://www.sos.ne.gov/elec/2008/ElectNig ht/primary.htm

Again, notice that many more voters participated in the primary. This time in Nebraska, there are HUGE descrepancies in the vote total. How is Obama almost twenty points higher in the caucus than his result in the primary? How is Hillary fifteen points lower?

I say if you use two different systems of voting in a state, and come up with two completely different results, one of them must be seriously flawed. One of them must be incorrect.

The secret ballot was an idea born of the Enlightenment, which also gave birth to the ideals this country was founded on. In fact, America was the first country in the world that was founded on the liberal ideals of the Enlightenment. Why did we allow our country to move away from the secret ballot, a trademark of Democracy?

No matter who you supported in this election, we all need to admit that the system we use to nominate a candidate is seriously flawed. Next time, it may be the candidate you support that is defeated without a secret ballot.

After this election, we should all fight for a fair system that works across the board. I believe the main thing that we can take from the results of these two states is that the caucus system is invalid, un-Democratic and simply produces different results than a primary with a secret ballot.

The secret ballot gives everyone a chance to vote their conscience. They don't have to worry about their neighbors seeing how they vote if they are for a different candidate. They do not allow a voter to be pressured in the voting place, because others are voting a different way. Since the Enlightenment, the secret ballot has been recognized by liberal minds as a way to promote fair elections. I believe it is time America, an Enlightened society, got back to this bedrock of Democracy and scrapped the caucus system altogether.

No matter who you support it is simply the right thing to do.



Display:


Re: NE And TX Prove My Point on Caucuses (2.00 / 1)

I hope hillary fights this all the way to the convention floor...


by nikkid on Wed May 14, 2008 at 04:58:04 PM EST

you should read Todd's post on the front page (none / 0)


"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!
by Al Rodgers on Wed May 14, 2008 at 05:01:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Blood and Caucuses (2.00 / 2)

...honestly I do see the value of caucuses.  I think that activist support is an important value in a candidate, and caucuses really show off a candidate's ground game.  They prevent a legacy candidate from winning solely on name recognition, which is valuable to me (though there were no caucuses involved, I had the pleasure of voting against Hubert H. Humphrey the Third for governor of my state, and I didn't even have to vote Republican to do it!).

Remember, in a perfect world these primaries and caucuses should be gatherings among friends; we're all Democrats.  We all want the same thing: victory in November.  What's wrong with stating our case in an official setting?  Also, it's very difficult for movements like Operation Chaos to interfere with caucuses, because generally the perpetrators don't know enough about their fake candidate to be convincing.

Like I said, I personally would rather have pure primaries, but there is value in these caucuses, or we wouldn't have a long tradition of using them.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Wed May 14, 2008 at 05:02:05 PM EST

Re: NE And TX Prove My Point on Caucuses (2.00 / 1)

I'm really doubtful you can make an assertion that these results have any contact to the primary results.

There is actually little evidence that Caucus elections disadvantage one group over another.  Though their turnout is quite a bit lower... they are not lower amongst any specific group.  I just got from a conference on Elections and Voting Behavior and a paper was presented on this topic. Chris Achen from Princeton was the presenter.  I heard Tom Mann and Martin Gilens reply...and then had to step out for the afternoon.  However, it was well done... I noticed a few flaws, but the thesis still held.


Matthew25Network.com
by cardboard 1 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 05:03:19 PM EST

GOP cross over dummy! I was there running (none / 0)

the elections for 4 Pcts. All my GooPer 'friends' voted for Hillary. That was only 4 days after Rush called for them to do it. It's that simple.


by LoneStarLefty on Wed May 14, 2008 at 05:08:03 PM EST

Re: NE And TX Prove My Point on Caucuses (none / 0)

The thing is, the primaries and the caucuses are not elections, they are delegate selection processes.  The purpose is for the state party to decide how to apportion its delegates to the national convention.  That's all; and that's a far different animal than directly selecting the nominee.

If, as you say, the caucus results are skewed toward the campaign with the best organization and the most money; I'd say that as a measure of who is the strongest candidate, those are reasonable metrics.  Good men and women who would be great presidents never get to the primaries for lack of those two things.  

Organization and money are the lifeblood of a good campaign, and if a state party wants to weed out the also-rans for lack of those two necessities, I'd say they're well within sensible criteria to do so.

Again, it's not a beauty contest, it's a means of selecting the best candidate and best campaign organization.  You or I may not like the process or the results, and it may seem undemocratic; but it's actually a very practical way to do it IMO.


Nos causidicus Obama , ergo nos non suadeo
by rb608 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 05:10:33 PM EST

You are wrong in some of your points (none / 0)

Some caucuses use the secret ballot (like in MN).

I like my Minnesota caucus it was a chance to get to meet a lot of new people and organize to win in November, the local party is much strogner (not that they really needed it here in Dinkytown/Stadium Village/Prospect Park neighborhoods on the U but a republican won't break over 20% in this small area due to how well organized we are.


Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!
by Student Guy on Wed May 14, 2008 at 05:17:40 PM EST

NE, TX, WA proved that caucuses are fraud (2.00 / 1)

I agreed with you about TX & NE, WA primaries did prove it to.
It is actually many diaries on this topic on MYDD. look at this for example:
http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/2/9/21462 7/3611
Welcome to a Landslide without white Working class, Latinos, Women, Seniors and holding-on sweeties
by engels on Wed May 14, 2008 at 05:20:21 PM EST

wrongwrongwrongwrong (none / 0)

I ordinarily ignore your idiotic comments, engels, but not when you misstate something I'm intimately aware of -- Washington.

We don't have party registration here.  In a primary, there's no way to tell whether a voter is serious or making mischief.  Washington will never have party registration, and therefore I will do whatever I can to retain our caucus system.  It's hard enough to build the Party as is; without the caucuses and their role in identifying committed partisans for our side, it might disappear as a viable organization.

Had the Washington primary had any meaning whatsoever, the Obama vote would have been appreciably higher.  Even though his campaign (correctly) paid no attention to the primary, he still outpolled Clinton by 5%.

When we elect our Congressional District DNC delegates this Saturday, I estimate that it'll be 34-17 for Obama.  That margin will result in an 18-9 margin in at-large pledged delegates, making it 52-26 overall.  A quick back-of-the-envelope calculation based on the primary -- which definitely understated the support for Obama in this state -- indicates that it would have resulted in something like 46-32.  Yes, a bit different from the caucus outcome, but still strong for Obama.


by N in Seattle on Wed May 14, 2008 at 06:15:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: wrongwrongwrongwrong (none / 0)

well i enjoy you going down to personal attacks. my usual comment on shit like that - go ahead, make my day.


Welcome to a Landslide without white Working class, Latinos, Women, Seniors and holding-on sweeties
by engels on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:41:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NE And TX Prove My Point on Caucuses (none / 0)

Umm- Will be glad to welcome Sen Clinton to the electoral reform cause, but this is their system. And Terry and Harold all signed off on the current rules for the Clintons.. Caucuses favor insiders,normally. It's a system built for party regulars. 40 years ago, we picked the nominee without any input from rank and file dems- many states had "unit rule" at the convention which meant that all the state's votes were cast for whoever had the majority. Only 2 or 3 states had any primaries for delegates, usually beauty contests.


by Skipster on Wed May 14, 2008 at 05:26:10 PM EST

Texas Over Predicts Obama's Primary Vote (none / 0)

Actually, Texas is different from Washington State and Nebraska in that Texas had the caucus and the primary on the same day. This makes a big difference, because once someone votes in a same day primary, he or she is more likely to stay or comeback for the caucus because the same day primary reduces the marginal cost of attending the same day caucus. Because Clinton supporters are less likely to attend a caucus, Clinton got more votes in the Texas Caucus than had the caucus been held on a different day.

Thus, Texas is not a good indicator of what would happen if all states went to a primary. If all states went to a primary, Clinton would have done much better than what Texas would have predicted.

In fact a statistical study published by an Obama supporter at the DailyKos showed that (all else equal) Clinton does 12.5 percent better in primary states than in caucus states. Thus, if Clinton lost a caucus state to Obama by a 62.5-37.5 percent margin, then the state most likely would have been a 50-50 toss up in a primary.

You also have to be careful when analyzing states such as Nevada, New Mexico and Guam. Although these contests were denoted as caucuses, these caucuses functioned more like primaries so Clinton was competitive in those states.


Dizzy Zzyzzy
by Zzyzzy on Wed May 14, 2008 at 05:54:40 PM EST

Stop Whining and Move on (none / 0)

Please stop whining and move on.  We're now focused on beating John McCain in November and implementing a progressive agenda for all Americans.
Hillary will not be on top of the ticket; so let's move on the much needed victory we deserve in this country.

by igwealth5tm on Wed May 14, 2008 at 08:09:57 PM EST


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