Heh, who will Childers cast his superdelegate vote for?

Will he finally get around to meeting Barack Obama, after winning with a "never heard of the guy" campaign? :)

Actually, I think that it would be very possible.  Once Obama clinches the majority of pledged delegates, it's very likely that the superdelegate movement will accelerate -- unless they just want to wait a little longer until SD and MT have spoken.

Todd,

Could you please comment on my diary about more transparency for the electoral vote maps?  I think they're a real service to the community and I would very much appreciate more detailed information linked to them.  The last I looked, 93% agreed.

Here's the diary (and it's now on top of the Rec List) http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/5/14/1450 42/287

Thanks much!

There is a "Big" Endorsement coming tonight...if it is Gore or Edwards that could help up the flow of supers.

Howard Wolfson said today that Childers's win bumps the total delegates needed to win up to 2210.

Even if they did, which is unlikely, their votes don't count until the convention

Edwards' pledged delegates remain up for grabs between the candidates, even considering the impending endorsement:

"The Atlantic's Ambinder: Obama to announce a 'big national endorsement' at 7 pm ET.

Radio silence from six senior Obama officials when asked directly by The Page: 'Is John Edwards endorsing Barack Obama today?'"

Wow, I've never seen this much pressure on a candidate to get out of a race! It's unbelievable, because the pro-Obama peeps know that the longer Hillary stays in, the dimmer Obama's chances of clinching the nomination become.

This has been over since February.  Really.

This question sort of presupposes that the SDs are all of the same mind on this. I'm sure that many of them would love to end the contest as early as possible . . . though one might assume these people have already declared for their candidate. Others might just want to jump in as soon as possible so that they perceive they could gain influence with the candidate and could care less how their decision is perceived by others.

Also, it assumes that they've all been chosen by May 31. How many SDs have yet to be assigned by their state delegations (or, will yet to have been assigned by the end of the month)?

Will the restrictions placed on people who RECed diaries not in the REC list have those lifted by May 31?

Will we know by May 31 how RECing a document is a threat to this website?

Sorry to hijack Todd, but this backhanded attempt is ridiculous.
In the end I am not hijacking, it is a constant conversation in EVERY diary.

It's like MYdd has second class citizens.

Read this: http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/5/15/1427 30/254

does Obama get his pledged delegates?  I think there are 18 or 19.  Just wondering.

All this stuff is just splitting hairs.  Obama will be the nominee and, while I would have preferred Clinton, I am over it.

The Clinton campaign though continues to insist that the magic number of total delegates to win is 2209, which is 2025 plus all of Michigan and Florida's pledged and superdelegates.

Well.. thats not entirely true.  Strikeout "continues to insist" with "insists"..

I view the May 31st meeting as an equivalent to a photo op. At this point, the damage is done with the imposed penalty. Hopefully, enough superdelegates will not endorse prior to the last vote casted and counted.

My guess is that we'll see a flood of superdelegates  after Sen. Obama breaks the 1627-pledged barrier on May 20th, and he'll have 2025 total delegates by the end of the week.

I don't see the MI/FL solution changing the numbers. Their punishment was too harsh, but at this stage in the game we can't make their punishment be "being allowed to change the outcome of the election".

Here's what I think is going to happen:
1 - Between May 20th and May 31st, the party leadership will encourage uncommitted superdelegates to declare "for the sake of party unity".
2 - On May 31st, the MI/FL committee will look at the current delegate count and come up with a way of seating MI/FL that will keep Sen. Obama above the 50% mark. This will probably involve seating both delegations with half-votes and making them wear dunce caps until the end of the convention. (If there are still a lot of uncommitted superdelegates, MI/FL might be seated with quarter-votes, or Sen. Obama might be awarded some bonus delegates in MI to compensate for his not being on the ballot. The dunce caps are non-negotiable, though.)
3 - Some superdelegates might want to wait the end of the primary season to commit, in an effort to increase voter registration in the last few states. If there are too many of them, then the MI/FL committee will postpone their decision for a couple of weeks.
4 - Any superdelegate who still hasn't committed a few days after the Puerto Rico primary will also be required to wear a dunce cap until the end of the convention.

Superdelegates are free to change their votes, so we're still safe if there's an unprecedented disaster between now and August.

I think it's a lot of fun to play around with delegate numbers, but I doubt the superdelegate split and rules are going to be settled and go out into the open before all the 50 states finish their primaries and caucuses.  (Puerto Rico might get ignored, though.)  I don't see the incentive for superdelegates or the DNC to give one candidate the clinching number yet.

The way I read what has happened the past few weeks, the Obama campaign's been engaged in a stupid (and insecure) attempt to bullrush the superdelegates into declaring for him and perhaps clinching.  That ran into the Clinton campaign's counter (and some implementation to prove its threat as serious, it seems) to go scorched earth on Obama with the voters.

The net effect is the right one- that the remaining voters are going to see their votes apparently matter and the primary process is being allowed to run its conclusion.  It also allows the runthrough of the 50 State Strategy machinery for the General to finish.

One larger lesson for the Party from the process that the caucus system is on its way out- the Party is becoming more small 'd' democratic internally.

Great interview on CNN.

Clinton should be the President. Period.

When supers endorse Obama after he gets crushed in elections in WV and PA, this election is a joke.

This 2025 number is worthless.  2209 includes FL and MI which is what we will rely on ultimately especially after the DNC rules committee comes out in favor of counting ALL of Florida's delegates (since both names were on the ballot) and awarding HRC her 73 delegates that she received in MI.

Did any body see the pamphlet that is being distributed across Kentucky by the Obama campaign?  Hilarious!! Go over to drudge and check it out.  It makes Huckabee's Christmas ad look like a novice.

Until Howard Wolfson actually quotes a rules or makes some other contact with the real world, I am going to assume that the addition of one more Democratic congressman will add 1 to the total of delegates (however that total is being calculated at the moment) and raise the total needed to be nominee by at most one delegate's vote.

Whenever Wolfson wants to adjust his tin foil antennae to communicate why the addition of one delegate meaning that the number needed for a majority increases by five, I'll be listening.

therefore any claim can be based on number of pledged delegates only, which unachievable by both candidates

The answer is: YES!
Obama is getting superdelegates to come over to him at a rate of 5/day.  This will increase if Edwards endorses tonight (Halperin and others are reporting Edwards boarding a plane to MI!)

Obama has 1886.  Add 5 supers/day x 17 days= 85.
That makes 1971.
On 5/20 we have KY and OR, for a total of 125 delegates up for grabs.  A conservative estimate gives Obama 20 from KY and 36 from OR, for another 56.  Add that to 1971 and you get 2027.  BINGO!

Any further disputes raised by the Clinton campaign, as to the required number, will be countered by a sufficient number of superdelegates to seal the deal, regardless of whatever crazy math the Clinton campaign wants to push.  It's already done, and the supers know it.  The rest of the schedule is orchestrated for the best spin possible going into the GE.

The thing is, the DNC and Obama will have control over the credentialing committee and can block the seating of any delegates from Florida and Michigan.  The DNC would block them to enforece its rules and the Obama camp would block them if they could give Clinton the win.

The practical upshot is, the goalposts will only get shifted to 2,210 or whatever if it is done so in such a way as to not affect the outcome of the nomination contest.  Moving the goalposts will not help Senator Clinton.

Superdelegates have been coming out for Obama at a 5.2/day pace since N.C..   He IS on pace to reach 2025 before May 31st.  I wonder if Edwards will ask his delegates to back Barack.  If all 18 of them decide to do so, he will get a boost toward the 2025 that is larger than the boost Hil got out of West Virginia.

Yes. The question is not "if" the question is "when". All of the discussion about what super delegates will do is just talk. Of the remaining 230 undeclared super delegates, Obama will need 30 to 40 (<20%). Obama has committments from 130. The when depends on Clinton.  If Clinton continues the "republican like" attacks, the superdelegates will move soon.  

If the DNC fails to enforce their rules, how will they set rules in the future. Hopefully, the Florida and Michigan Democrats will vote out the representatives that played chicken with their votes. Calling for Florida and Michigan to be seated "as is" sells out the DNC, make no sense and would undermine the DNC credibility. The DNC will not change rules because one candidate cnn't win with the rules in place before the primary started