While Caucuses Violate the Spirit

Caucuses "violate the spirit". This is the analysis being spread around the blogosophere after last night's slightly closer margin in Nebraska's Primary.

What those saying this mean to say is that it violates what they believe to be the spirit of elections. Caucuses are often derided as activist parties where the 'Average Joe' can't be included. Extrapolating and expounding upon this, many Clinton supporters feel caucuses have enabled Senator Obama to achieve a delegate lead he would not otherwise have.

Let me go through the list:

South Carolina, +13
Alabama, +2
Connecticut, +4
Delaware, +3
Georgia, +23
Illinois, +55
Missouri, E
Utah, +5
Louisiana, +10
Democrats Abroad, +2
District of Colombia, +9
Maryland, +16
Virginia, +25
Wisconsin, +10
Vermont, +3
Mississippi, +7
North Carolina, +17

That's seventeen contests for a net of +208 delegates. Now you're thinking - MAN I HATE THOSE CAUCUSES. But those aren't caucuses.

They are primaries.

Yes, Senator Obama has won seventeen primaries and has netted 208 delegates from them. He's won seventeen "fair" elections as some call it, using the system by which Senator Clinton's supporters prefer.

Seventeen is more primaries than Senator Clinton has won, and until yesterday, was more contests than Senator Clinton won, period.

A look at caucuses:

Alaska, +5
Iowa, +1
Colorado, +15
Idaho, +8
Kansas, +9
North Dakota, +3
Minnesota, +24
Nebraska, +6
Virgin Islands, +3
Washington, +26
Maine, +6
Hawaii, +8
Wyoming, +1
Texas, +9
Guam, E

That's fifteen contests for a net of +118 delegates, a little more than half of what Senator Obama netted from primaries.

The notion that Senator Obama has distinctly profited from caucuses is ridiculous - and while it would have held weight before North Carolina and Wisconsin and the streak of 12 states, since it would then make the delegate count nearly tied if you excluded them, it doesn't really matter now, because Senator Obama wins with or without them.

Furthermore, the caucuses don't represent an issue of unfairness versus fairness - Senator Clinton has won caucuses:

Nevada, -1
New Mexico, +2
American Samoa, +1

Three of them for three delegates - and she was competitive in several more, limiting Senator Obama's net take.

Truth is, if Senator Clinton had competed in caucuses rather than adopting the Giuliani strategy of camping big states - California, New York, the New England states and other heavy hitters - the margins would be closer, and she may have even picked off a few states.

The difference in the delegates is simple. Senator Obama has competed in almost every state, the exceptions being West Virginia and Arkansas, I believe. In the states where Senator Obama competes, he limits Senator Clinton's overall delegate net:

Clinton Primaries
New Hampshire, E
Arizona, +6
California, +38
Massachusetts, +17
New Jersey, +9
New York, +48
Oklahoma, +10
Tennessee, +12
Ohio, +7
Rhode Island, +5
Texas, +4
Pennsylvania, +12
Indiana, +4

In the thirteen primaries aforementioned, Senator Obama competing in the states, limited Senator Clinton's ability to net delegates to 172. Thirteen primaries is less than the seventeen that Obama won.

There is a difference however - Senator Clinton nets a single more delegate per Primary win, meaning they both net about the same out of primaries they win but that Senator Obama just wins more primaries.

That means that the notion that Senator Clinton would be ahead in delegates if primaries were strictly used is also unfounded; Senator Obama performs the same, if not better, since he has won more and netted around 50 more delegates from them.

The truth of the matter is, Senator Obama would be ahead without the caucuses and furthermore, would likely win them if they were primaries because they fall into his demographics.

Despite what others would have you believe, old people, students, the average working joe and even latte-sipping liberals attend caucuses.

The primaries that surround the caucuses of the Purple West going to Obama and the reality that Senator Obama will win the primaries of Oregon, Montana and South Dakota showcase a very different reality to the one trying to be spun by Senator Clinton:

That the purple west is not so much an issue of caucuses but an issue of demographics:

Caucus states are marked with an X and the arrows show the two distinct regions that Senator Obama carries with little effort, whether caucus or primary.



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Commissar: Canadian Gal; Proletariat Policemen: ragekage, Lord Hadrian. "For the Proletariat!"
by Lord Hadrian on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:53:43 PM EST

fair is fair. (2.00 / 1)

interesting analysis...  and yet still:

primaries - fair

caucuses - not so much


"Me Fail English? That's Unpossible." Ralph Wiggum
by canadian gal on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:56:05 PM EST

But the point is: (2.00 / 1)

He's still up, regardless of them.

It's a non-issue because it doesn't factor into him winning the delegate counts, as far as I can tell.


Commissar: Canadian Gal; Proletariat Policemen: ragekage, Lord Hadrian. "For the Proletariat!"
by Lord Hadrian on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:57:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: But the point is: (none / 0)

Maybe it not about who wins, but about fairness and allowing more people an oppotunity to particpate.


by Mayor McCheese on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:18:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: But the point is: (none / 0)

exactamundo!


"Me Fail English? That's Unpossible." Ralph Wiggum
by canadian gal on Wed May 14, 2008 at 03:47:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: fair is fair. (none / 0)

I agree that caucuses have problems.  They appeal to a democratic ideal, with a highly interested public passionately defending candidates and ideas, that we just haven't fully reached.  For now, a single-transferable vote system would maintain some of the best aspects of caucuses and would get rid of the problematic points.

But, it's not as if Clinton didn't know they were coming.  The fact that her ground game has been so thoroughly schooled by Obama's is still stunning, to me, as my expectations a month or two before Iowa was that she was going to absolutely crush her competition, with the backing of so many party leaders (read: governors and mayors).  


No way. No how. No McCain.
by freedom78 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:40:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: While Caucuses Violate the Spirit (2.00 / 1)

What's happening on MYDD is an interesting microcosm of how our political parties work.  First, we all (most of us) decide who we're supporting.  Then, as time goes by, different issues come up that seem to favor one camp or the other (Wright, MI/FL, popular vote, caucuses, blue-collar voters, etc.).  Next, partisans from both sides take predictable positions on the issues.  Finally, you have something resembling a stalemate and arguments that have nothing to do with our original intents over who to vote for dominating the commentary on MYDD.

And, voila.  You have Fox vs. CNN and Hannity vs. Franken, and Terry Schiavo and ANWR and Gay Marriage.  I.e. Distractions from the issues.


by the mollusk on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:06:29 PM EST

Re: While Caucuses Violate the Spirit (2.00 / 0)

Exactly. I have always been opposed to causcuses and I still am despite my support for Obama. I am willing to wager that at least two thirds of these Hillary supporters wouldn't have had a problem with caucuses if Hillary won most of them.


by Pravin on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:08:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: While Caucuses Violate the Spirit (none / 0)

I've never formulated a strong opinion on them.  And I'm certainly not against getting rid of them.  But I find the current angst over caucuses to be a little disingenuous.  It really is just like these nonsensical debates (that Republicans always seem to win) over non-issues.


by the mollusk on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:44:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: While Caucuses Violate the Spirit (none / 0)

Not me. I've always disliked them.


by Mayor McCheese on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:10:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: While Caucuses Violate the Spirit (2.00 / 1)

Also, watch the Obama people all of a sudden find superdelagates to be not such a horrible thing as Obama gets more superdelegate support.


by Pravin on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:22:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I hate superdelegates. (2.00 / 1)

But both sides have moved the goalposts; Senator Clinton has just tended to do it at a much more frequent pace.

This nominating process for delegates was largely over in February - since then, almost nothing has changed except the lead, which I believe has increased for Senator Obama.

I think both candidates are qualified but the reality is, it will be a 50.1% win to a 49.9% win. And it's a delegate selecting process and he'll likely be the nominee unless he's caught with a dead hooker or smoking weed.


Commissar: Canadian Gal; Proletariat Policemen: ragekage, Lord Hadrian. "For the Proletariat!"
by Lord Hadrian on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:26:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I hate superdelegates. (none / 0)

More likely a 51% win to a 47% win, the remaining 2% going to Edwards.


by Aris Katsaris on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:41:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: While Caucuses Violate the Spirit (none / 0)

The difference is:

a) Obama doesn't need superdelegates -- he wins either with or without them.
b) Obama doesn't need to depend on pledged delegates or popular vote -- count only the states they actually participated in and he wins either way.
c) Obama doesn't need caucuses -- he wins either with or without them.
d) Obama doesn't need either to include or to exclude MI and FL -- he wins either with or without them.

It's only Clinton that needs a very precise combination of factors - perhaps, potentially she can win:
a) ONLY IF she used superdelegates
b) AND ONLY IF and uses a popular-vote argument.
c) AND ONLY IF she excludes caucuses
d) AND ONLY IF she includes MI and FL and gives no votes to Obama from MI

So, basically she needs to twist the rules four times at least; and she still would fail as she won't convince the superdelegates anyway. Take any one of those twists out, and it's not even mathematically possible.

So basically Obama's argument is an "||" conjuction and Hillary's argument is a "&&" conjuction. Ask a programmer which of these is most likely to succeed if any of its terms fails.


by Aris Katsaris on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:40:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: While Caucuses Violate the Spirit (none / 0)

Obama does need superdelegates.


by Mayor McCheese on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:18:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: While Caucuses Violate the Spirit (none / 0)

"Obama does need superdelegates."

Um, no -- he's leading on the pledged delegate count, so he doesn't need the existence of superdelegates to change the results: Only Hillary Clinton requires their existence and support.

If only pledged delegates existed, Obama would win since he has their majority.
Now that superdelegates also exist and matter, Obama still wins -- since he has the SD's majority too.


by Aris Katsaris on Wed May 14, 2008 at 03:01:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: While Caucuses Violate the Spirit (none / 0)

Um. Yeah he needs them. Subtrack the superdelegates from his count and see where he is vis a vis Clinton then.


by Mayor McCheese on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:11:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Superdelegates are undemocratic... (2.00 / 1)

anyway you slice.  They were a bad idea in 1982 when they were created (coincidentally the year I was born).  They were a stupid idea in 1984, 1988, 1992...do you see where I'm going with this.  They're bad.  Any institution created to subvert the will of the voters is bad.  I don't care if they vote for Obama or Clinton, there are still bad and I will work to eliminate them for 2012.  In case you didn't get the basic message I was sending, I hate superdelegates.


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:09:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

And yet, the time to complain (none / 0)

isn't during an election.

It's during the 3 and a half years that the primaries aren't happening.

To do it during it automatically brings to mind "we'll do anything to win" and it's not something I want Senator Clinton to be pegged with, because it was a Republican talking point and now even our party is doing it.

And it's goalpost changing. Both signed the rules; both agreed upon it. It's too late to change the outcome based upon it but if we want to change the system, we should take notes and lobby the DNC.


Commissar: Canadian Gal; Proletariat Policemen: ragekage, Lord Hadrian. "For the Proletariat!"
by Lord Hadrian on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:56:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I agree with you... (none / 0)

which is why I will accept it if they give the nomination to Clinton, but I still think they're undemocratic and I will lobby the DNC to eliminate them after November.


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Wed May 14, 2008 at 04:00:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And yet, the time to complain (none / 0)

It's never wrong to complain. It's part of healthy process. It's wrong to change the rules midstream or after the fact, but it's never wrong to speak out about what you think can be improved.


by Mayor McCheese on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:11:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

None of this changes (none / 0)

My objections to them. Namely, the lack of a secret ballot, the difficulties/impossibility of voting absentee is many of them, candidates being officially declared "not viable", potential for voter intimidation, the lack of reported vote totals in some of them and the difficulties many face in being able to attend and participate.


by Mayor McCheese on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:16:14 PM EST

See, I believe completely (none / 0)

in the founding principles of our country. For one - I don't believe in one person, one vote, because that doesn't exist, hasn't existed and likely won't exist.

I don't believe mob rule is the method by which to run a successful government; for one, it allows people to sweep to power and immediately have control of everything.

Parliamentary systems and direct-elections have faced far more dictatorships and tyranny than our government.

And I'm very Hamiltonian in my views, combined with the original principles of the Democratic-Republic. Democrats believe in a stronger central government and more influence from government. We are a representative democracy and a Democratic Republic.

Popular vote doesn't decide elections and up until the early 1900s, the Senators weren't elected by a popular vote either.

And the only reason that changed was because state legislatures took forever to pick their senators, otherwise it'd still be that way - and with the ease of modern day travel likely wouldn't be a problem today.

I don't trust the people and the last eight years have evidenced that precisely. Two elections where the worst human being to ever occupy the Presidency was enabled; three elections where majorities were given to a party that is vicious in its attacks and so disgustingly corrupt that it makes usual government corruption look heavenly.

I never thought I'd yearn for the Reagan years but after Bush 43 years, I'd take them in a heartbeat.

So no - I don't trust the American people; I'm Hamiltonian in that respect.

And while I believe caucuses need to be more transparent, I firmly believe that the initiative and care that it takes to show up to a caucus is what should decide our elections.

I don't want people to be able to vote in 5 minutes. I don't want them to be able to vote in 10.

Do you realize that a simple button press will help decide how thousands of people in Asia and Africa will be effected? How millions of Americans will be treated and effected?

To have someone walk into a both and push the "All Democratic" or "All Republican" button is the single most disgusting thing to me.

I have voted for Democrats and I have voted for Republicans; I have showed up at caucuses and I have voted in primaries.

I am an activist and I don't trust the American people - they gave us eight years of Bush, eight years of Reagan and two elections of Nixon who used the Southern Strategy.

The racist party filled with corrupt individuals has been given this country for 28 years out of 40. That's enough evidence for why the general election and everything in general needs to be geared towards having people become more involved with their votes.

I understand working class people - that's why I believe elections need to be held on three days: Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

But those things aren't going to change easily and aren't likely to change ever.

And we have to elect someone who can win those contests (winner take all, and by majority in each state) - and as I said above, regardless of the nefarious caucus states, Senator Obama is the person whose done it.


Commissar: Canadian Gal; Proletariat Policemen: ragekage, Lord Hadrian. "For the Proletariat!"
by Lord Hadrian on Wed May 14, 2008 at 03:07:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: See, I believe completely (none / 0)

With due respect what does the time spent voting of caucusing have to do with quality (How does one even measure this of one's vote? I can vote in ten seconds  if given the oppotunity, because I take the time to follow the campaign and issues very closely. On the other hand one can walk into a caucus, spend hours there and simply caucus for one side because more people ventured to one side of the room.


by Mayor McCheese on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:02:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

A few points (none / 0)

1) You left off Arkansas in Hillary's win column.  She netted 19 delegates from that contest.

2) New Mexico is a "caucus" in name only.  It really is like a primary, so to lump that in with the other caucus states seems a little incorrect.

3) You fail to count Michigan and Florida, where 2.5 million voters went to the polls to express their support.  Hillary netted 73 delegates from Michigan and 38 delegates from Florida.  Even if you allocate all the uncommitted delegates to Obama, which is probably unfair, then Hillary would net 18 delegates.

4) After seeing the results from WA and NE primaries where Hillary lost by small margins (5 and 2 points, respectively) compared with the WA and NE caucus results where Hillary lost by large margins (37 and 36 points, respectively), it seems clear that caucuses inflate the real support for Obama and depress the real support for Hillary.  If  you assume that is true across caucus states, it's highly likely that neither candidate would have netted any delegates from the caucus states.

The criticism of caucuses is legitimate, and you should recognize that.


by unabashed dem on Wed May 14, 2008 at 03:00:37 PM EST

Response (none / 0)

1) I didn't include Arkansas or West Virginia as I was mentioning places where Senator Obama wasn't blown out. But yes, that does close the gap a bit - but still with those states included, Senator Obama will lead without caucuses.

2) Guam is a caucus in name only; Kansas is a different type of caucus. I list them as they're listed on the Democratic website.

3) I only list contests sanctioned by the Democratic National Committee. That may change in a week or two but I don't predict and I don't include figures not sanctioned by the contest. To do otherwise would be silly. The most likely scenarios are they are either split 50/50 or half delegations are seated.

In the end, Michigan and Florida will receive punishments and if you want to get into unfair, these elections are as unfair as they get.

International standards demand that a person be able to campaign in a state or country and that contracts be upheld. When you sign a contract saying these contests won't count, you can't count them unless that decision is reversed.

It hasn't been reversed and it won't be reversed in a method that would effect the outcome of the election.

To do otherwise would make the claim of caucuses being unfair hypocrisy.

4) Actually, seeing the results from WA and NE before Hillary Clinton began assigning care to states that are usually deemed as fly-over and after showcases what I supported above.

That the reason Senator Clinton lost those contests is simple - she didn't assign care to them.

Once February had passed and Senator Obama had already ran up the score, Senator Clinton engaged in a late-game strategy that was unfortunately late - people who support her began a massive GOTV in states she would likely get blown out in since Senator Obama spent loads of time and money and resources there.

Nebraska and Washington, despite not being apart of her plans, still received attention from people who wanted to make a point and wanted to GOTV.

The problem is, they were a day late and a dollar short.

The better showcasing of how meaningless the difference is is Texas, where both netted enough delegates to almost offset one another.

The impact of activism is minimal; if Senator Clinton had one or two more weeks and could focus on the Texas Caucus like Senator Obama did, they would have tied or won it.

Simply put: it's Senator Clinton's campaign's fault.

I don't recognize the criticism of caucuses because as evidenced again above - time spent there reduces the vote totals; primaries in caucus areas still favor Senator Obama and the metrics are being changed by everyone here over and over.

So now caucuses need to be primaries and states also need to be winner take all and only popular vote should count.

It really doesn't matter the metric - Senator Obama usually wins. Winner take all. Only primaries. Sanctioned contests. Unsanctioned contests.

The only way Senator Clinton claims victory is if Michigan's Uncommitted Vote totals don't go to Senator Obama and then she says she has the most votes.

That's gotta be the funniest thing I've heard.

I love Senator Clinton but I have a great memory. I've remembered every single metric change.

And it doesn't work when you can't commit to one.


Commissar: Canadian Gal; Proletariat Policemen: ragekage, Lord Hadrian. "For the Proletariat!"
by Lord Hadrian on Wed May 14, 2008 at 03:20:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: While Caucuses Violate the Spirit (none / 0)

"The criticism of caucuses is legitimate, and you should recognize that."

The criticism of caucuses WOULD have been legitimate if it had been done either before or after the primary season.

As it stands now however, the criticism of caucuses is merely an disgusting piece of crap put forward by sore losers in an obscenely desperate attempt to reject the results that declared Hillary a loser.


by Aris Katsaris on Wed May 14, 2008 at 03:05:57 PM EST

Correct in the thrust of the argument (none / 0)

But you could be a bit more civil and less crude about it.

Some people believe strongly in this, despite the obvious changes and goalpost movements. People are deeply invested in this primary and their candidate.

So we need to keep the discussion free of things that could incite vulgar discourse.


Commissar: Canadian Gal; Proletariat Policemen: ragekage, Lord Hadrian. "For the Proletariat!"
by Lord Hadrian on Wed May 14, 2008 at 03:23:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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