Nebraska primary results

Nebraska held a non-binding primary tonight.  The results confirm earlier results from both Washington State and Texas indicating that Hillary Clinton's support level in primaries -- where there are far few obstacles toward participating and everyone's ballot is secret -- is much greater than in caucuses, which are much more difficult to participate in and often require a non-secret ballot vote.

In the Feb. 14 Nevada caucus, the results were:
Obama: 68% (26,126 votes) (16 delegates)
Clinton: 32% (12,445) (8 delegates)
Vote margin: 13,681

In the May 13 Nebraska primary votes tonight (where considerably more people voted than in the caucus, but no delegates were awarded), the final results were as follows.
Obama: 49% (45,952 votes) (would equal 12 delegates)
Clinton: 46% (43,357 votes) (would equal 12 delegates)
Vote margin: 2,595

Difference between primary and caucus
Obama votes: +19,832 (+75.9%)
Clinton votes: +30,912 (+248.4%)
Obama over Clinton vote margin: decreases by 11,086 (decreases by 81%)
Obma over Clinton delegate margin: would decrease by 8

Now, some people will probably say that the primary results are not credible, because Obama didn't campaign for the primary.  But neither did Clinton.  And, if I recall correctly, Obama actually campaigned in the state for the caucus more than Hillary did.  Therefore, I don't think this discrepancy is due to a lack of campaigning.  It's simply the fact, as has been demonstrated in Texas earlier (where both candidates campaigned for the primary and the caucus), that in the undemocratic caucuses --where voters lack many of the rights they have in primaries (secret ballots, fast vote, opportunity for absentee ballots) -- Obama does much better than in primary elections.

This also puts to lie the notion that the caucus system penalizes Obama in the popular vote, allegedly because the states that favor him are counted for little (since so few people vote there).  Here is an example, again confirming the Texas results, that Obama does considerably worse in the popular vote via primaries than he does via caucuses, even in the same state.  

Unfortunately for Obama--and for the entire Democratic Party if Obama gets the nomination--there are no caucuses in November.



Display:


Re: Nebraska primary results (2.00 / 8)

caucuses seriously suck!


"Be kind, for everyone you meet is fighting a hard battle." Plato
by canadian gal on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:26:48 AM EST

Re: Nebraska primary results (2.00 / 1)

Have their results varied greatly from polling data.

If they have you have evidence of fraud. Its waht international watch dogs use to determine of elections are fair.

If not, then its just sour grapes.


by IowaMike on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:30:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (2.00 / 2)

"Under the formulas used to apportion delegates, it is possible that the candidate with the highest percentage of delegate equivalents -- that is, the headline "winner" -- did not really lead in the "popular vote" at the caucuses. Further, it is possible that a second or third-tier candidate could garner a surprising 10 percent or 12 percent of the popular vote statewide and get zero delegates. (That's because to be in the running for a delegate a candidate must have support from at least 15 percent of the people at a precinct caucus.) He or she may have done two or three times as well as expected among Iowa's Democratic voters and get no recognition for it."

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/18/opinio n/18cranberg.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

amongst a plethora of other reasons...


"Be kind, for everyone you meet is fighting a hard battle." Plato
by canadian gal on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:35:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (2.00 / 1)

A lot of " its possible"'S  but not much evidence.

Again, not only are the events weeks apart (heck a recent poll of California shows Obama beating Clinton by a lot, buyer's remorse?), but you have no corresponding data to suggest that the results are that far off actual public opinion.


by IowaMike on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:38:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (2.00 / 3)

i have no interest in arguing about this primary and caucuses, rather that they suck. ;)


"Be kind, for everyone you meet is fighting a hard battle." Plato
by canadian gal on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:46:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (2.00 / 1)

again, opinion.


by IowaMike on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:49:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (2.00 / 2)

yep - thats right.  my opinion.  and you are entitled to yours.  but did you know you t/r me in another diary that was written by a troll?  how ironic.


"Be kind, for everyone you meet is fighting a hard battle." Plato
by canadian gal on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:52:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (none / 0)

One man's troll is another man's princess.

I thought you made an overtly personal attack.

I have been troll rated and hidden for(albet my opinion) less on this site.


by IowaMike on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:59:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Too bad your opinion (none / 0)

can't help out your candidate with her delegate problem.


by bookish on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:48:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (2.00 / 1)

Nevada. Clinton wins popular vote, Obama gets more delegates.

Texas. Clinton wins the primary of 2.8 million people, but on the same day, Obama wins the caucus of 1 million people by 10 points. This results in Obama netting more delegates.

Iowa. According to entrance polls, Clinton comes in second in the popular vote. In fact, Obama, Clinton and Edwards were separated by 5 points. But, Clinton comes in third in the delegate count. Minor candidates are virtually nonexistent.

Washington. Obama wins caucus by 30 points, yet loses the primary, which more people participated in, by 5 points.

Conclusion. Caucuses are undemocratic that does not give a maximum share of the electorate to voice their opinions and should be abolished for good.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:02:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (none / 0)

In Iowa the final results were all in the margin of error.

Washington, how far off were the caucus results from the polling? And again, the emphasis wasn't on the pres choices. If they were closer that the primary results, then the caucus was more democratic.


by IowaMike on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:10:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (none / 0)

What the hell are you talking about polls for? The polls said Obama will win NH by 10 points, does that mean there was fraud? The polls said Obama will win SC by only 10 points, but he won by 20, does that mean there was fraud? Give me a break. When you see that a primary has more turnout, time and time again than a caucus and dismiss it because the caucus was inline with a poll, it shows not only do you not understand the process or a poll, but you don't care about the system. It is fatally flawed and you absolutely don't care because you see a poll and think a poll is the deciding factor in fraud.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:22:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (none / 0)

international watch dogs use polling data to make determinations about whether or not fraud may have occurred. If you have caucus and/or primary results that vary greatly, a poll from the same time frame as both activities can give you a somewhat clearer picture of which is more accurate. Otherwise, because of emphasis and time differences, comparing a poll to a primary is apples to oranges.


by IowaMike on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:29:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (none / 0)

And actually, the poll average for SC was about 14pts.


by IowaMike on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:38:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (none / 0)

And Clinton in the final polls in IA was ranked between 2nd and 3rd depending on the poll.


by IowaMike on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:11:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Do you expect us to take you seriously (2.00 / 2)

when you can't even get the most basic facts right?

Obama WON the Washington primary.


by Angry White Democrat on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:28:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (2.00 / 1)

I don't disagree with you.  But they are also a test of a candidates ability to organize a ground game and get out the vote.  A test at which Clinton failed miserably.


by Same As It Ever Was on Wed May 14, 2008 at 10:29:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (2.00 / 1)

Good god.  It's enough to make a person just blow off the whole primary process.  I have a friend in Iowa who described what it was like to caucus there.  She's an Obama supporter, so she described in a very enthusiastic way, but nonetheless, it sounded like a big pushiness contest.  She was so proud her contingent was so successfully pushy.  Makes me hang my head, I'll tell ya.


by Susan in Oregon on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:32:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (2.00 / 2)

I was an Edwards precint chairman. Some choose to be pushy, others use other skills. the results still reflected polled public opinon at that time.

BTW in my rural white poorer district Obama won, Edwards 2nd, Clinton 3rd. And current polling in this white swing state shows Obama beating McCentury, but McCentury beating Clinton.


by IowaMike on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:41:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (none / 0)

Y'know... I think McCain's age may be a factor, but it would be nice if it didn't become a point of mockery.  I mean, a serious discussion of it is one thing, but making demeaning names out of it isn't any different than Obama being the black candidate or Clinton being the woman candidate.  All those things are true about all three of them, but do we want to add ageism to the blend of sexism and racism?  I bet we can do better than that.


by Susan in Oregon on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:07:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (none / 0)

I think McCain's age may be a factor, but it would be nice if it didn't become a point of mockery

Most Democrats cannot control themselves with mockery.  Contempt is their coffee.


by reggie44pride on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:10:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (none / 0)

I'm sorry, I'll stick with McSame.


by IowaMike on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:13:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (none / 0)

McSame is cute.  I bet he hates that.


by Susan in Oregon on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:18:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (none / 0)

Heh. Comparing him to George W. Bush? That's an even bigger insult, isn't it?

I mean, there are lots of centenarians out there — just ask Willard Scott! — and the overwhelming majority of them are fine, upstanding individuals; on the other hand, there's relatively few George W. Bushes, and the most famous one carries enough suck to drag the average of the whole lot way down into negative territory.

Nope, I'd definitely rather be metaphorically compared to a decrepit old fogey than to George W. Bush.

Especially because I am decrepit. And fogey. And sort of old.

Now I'm depressed.


by Ray Radlein on Wed May 14, 2008 at 04:23:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I'll quit bringing up his age (none / 0)

when he releases his medical records. Until then, all bets are off.


by bookish on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:52:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (none / 0)

This implies to me that there was coercion.

Some choose to be pushy, others use other skills

People were not allowed to make up their minds on their own, they were pushed into voting the way others wanted them to, even if it was using other skills. Talk about peer pressure!

Doesn't sound democratic to me at all.


by splashy on Thu May 15, 2008 at 03:40:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (2.00 / 1)

Please read this and amend your diary with the appropriate corrections.

http://www.mydd.com/comments/2008/5/14/2 320/48687/172#172


by Yalin on Wed May 14, 2008 at 10:45:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I don't appreciate you coming in... (none / 0)

here and telling us Americans how to run our elections.  We don't tell you in Canada how to run your elections.  I don't mind you supporting your candidate.  I don't mind you being vociferous in that support or even the times your nasty.  But don't me how to run our elections.  There our elections, not yours.


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:19:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I don't appreciate you coming in... (none / 0)

i thank you for you instructions, for your inaccurate descriptions of me and for mojoing another mydd user who spread lies about me - well done!


"Be kind, for everyone you meet is fighting a hard battle." Plato
by canadian gal on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:33:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm not instructing you in anything... (none / 0)

I'm telling you my feelings that I do not appreciate you telling us how we should run our elections.  I didn't make any inaccurate claims or descriptions about you and never have.  Mostly, b/c I don't know you.  And if I mojoed somebody who lied about you, please tell me who that is and I'll change that.

Let me ask this though, where do you the right to criticize how we run elections?  Have we ever criticized how you run elections?  Do we piss and moan that you now have a conservative government? I really don't mind your participation on this blog and in American politics.  I think it has for the most part been positive, but you have no right to tell us how to run our elections.


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:53:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Are you upset that I called you nasty at times... (none / 0)

I'm sorry, but you have been at times.  Would you like me to find evidence of this or will you just accept that perhaps sometimes you stepped over the line?  I'm sure I have and I apologize for every time I did.


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:55:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Are you upset that I called you nasty at times (none / 0)

well upset is a stretch.  but yes - i do not appreciate you calling me nasty.  in fact - while i am sure you can go through my 100's of comments and dozens of diaries and find nary a nasty word.  disagreement is not nastiness.  and yes - you did mojo a user that said i put out 'hit diaries'  which is wholly inaccurate.

that being said - i have every right to comment on the legitimacy of the process considering that my father was american and have siblings and other family who live in the US.  but even if i did not - with free speech and such i would also be 'allowed' to.  

and btw feel free to criticize the canadian system as it is certainly flawed.  but we do not have caucuses is for sure.


"Be kind, for everyone you meet is fighting a hard battle." Plato
by canadian gal on Wed May 14, 2008 at 03:52:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'll change that mojo... (none / 0)

but you have been harsh in recent days.  And I never said anything about "allowed," but that I don't appreciate you're intruding on how we pick our elected officials.  I don't mind you telling us who we should pick or what policies we should have (especially as a Canadian our officials and policies have a great effect on you), but I don't appreciate you telling us how we should pick them.  I don't comment on the Brits and their system or the French and their system, even if there are issues with those electoral systems.  The reason being that to do so questions the legitimacy of that system, which as a non-citizen of those nations I have no right to do.

I've been to caucuses and they are not illegitimate or flawed.  I'll admit that they do not allow for full participation by citizens, but we have issues with full participation in our General Elections.  The fact is that caucuses are excellent ways to grow a party, which is an essential leading into a presidential election.  If the states that hold them want to change them, I'm perfectly fine with that.  But they are both historic and party institutions which have beneficial effects.  And until all states allow for same-day registration and weekend voting, then I don't see how caucuses are any worse than any other presidential party preference system.  And I would appreciate it if you allowed us to make our own determination on this and not question the legitimacy of our elections.

(BTW if I can't change the mojo I will mojo you for your comments during our discussion).


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Wed May 14, 2008 at 04:19:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I couldn't find what you were talking about... (none / 0)

so I just mojoed you.  I hope that is enough.


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Wed May 14, 2008 at 04:23:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'll change that mojo... (none / 0)

you have every right to comment on any system you want.  as do i.  caucuses may in fact achieve what you say they do, but they certainly unfair to average people.  caucuses force people to engage on a deeper level which is good i guess, but most people wont be bothered.  this is shown in the apathy in total voting numbers in BOTH our countries.


"Be kind, for everyone you meet is fighting a hard battle." Plato
by canadian gal on Wed May 14, 2008 at 04:35:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Just b/c they won't be "bothered"... (none / 0)

does not mean they can't.  This is the whole point.  We have 50% turnout in this country during the presidential year General Elections.  The fact that some people "won't be bothered" to do their duty as citizens is just a fact.  Until we are the most welcoming to participation in all elections, then we should not chuck out caucuses b/c they require more work.  

And while I have the right to say anything.  What I meant is that it is inappropriate for me to question other nations' electoral systems.  B/c to do so questions the legitimacy of their governments, which is inappropriate for me to do as a non-citizen of those nations.


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Wed May 14, 2008 at 05:00:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Just b/c they won't be "bothered"... (none / 0)

Between feeling like their vote doesn't count (as it doesn't with the delegates and the Electoral College) and not being able to take that much time off from their busy lives with work and family, I'm thinking that this idea that they won't be "bothered" by voting is not the truth of the matter.

Many are discouraged by this kind of system, where either your vote doesn't count much, or you are required to sit and be bullied by others into voting the way they want you to for HOURS.

No WONDER more people don't participate. Things are set up to discourage them from it!

Here's a thought: maybe it's that way to actively stop the lower income people from voting and getting anywhere, so the higher income people and extremely wealthy can run things for their OWN benefit. Seems caucuses are a prime example of this.


by splashy on Thu May 15, 2008 at 03:47:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (none / 0)

This whole argument is mindlessly idiotic. These primaries don't exist in a vacuum. The results were most likely swayed by other factors.

I would be willing to place money on the fact that many or even most Obama supporters didn't bother to vote a second time in an electorally meaningless primary. I would similarly be willing to bet that Clinton supporters wanting to voice their dissent or further debates like this one turned out in relative droves to cast a vote.

And let's not pretend such factors have nothing to do with it. McCain is the republican nominee and he still can't get much higher than 75%, thanks to the "anti-McCain" forces still casting votes for Huckabee, Paul and others.

Perhaps Obama wouldn't have had the same 60-point margins in some caucus states. But it's ridiculous to argue that a beauty contest coming months after delegates were already assigned reveals the "true" preference of Nebraska's electorate.


by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:41:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

My caucus was like a primary (2.00 / 4)

1: secret ballot
2: now waiting around you can vote for president and leave if you want to

True it had a shorter time period and a higher barrier to vote (no absentee ballots) but it it cost the state a lot less money too and we are a billion in the whole and cutting higher ed (fuck T-Paw)

It is in MN and if you insinuate that it is fraud filled I ask you which of the over 10k lakes do you want to be thrown into...  We are consistently among the highest turnout states in the nation and we are the longest running blue state.  There is not a very high likely hood that streak will be broken.


Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!
by Student Guy on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:28:50 AM EST

Re: My caucus was like a primary (2.00 / 4)

I didn't say a word about fraud.


by markjay on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:34:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I know that but it is a common theme among (2.00 / 2)

people to bash caucuses for fraud.  I am just preempting it, by some of the more zealous clinton supporters.


Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!
by Student Guy on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:38:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

MN is different (2.00 / 1)

as is WY- I think they both have actual and at least somewhat secret ballots.

Colorado, on the other hand, does not. I am very interested to see what our primary looks like this summer. This is very much a building narrative and something that we need to fix- like yesterday. It is not right and it is not fair to voters.
by linc on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:41:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My caucus was like a primary (none / 0)

highest turnout states in the nation

What was your Democratic turnout for the primary?  What was the percentage?

I saw that slightly more than 200,000 showed up for the MN "caucus," which is substantially less than showed up for WV yesterday, a state that contains just 1/3 of the people of MN.

Do you have different numbers?


by reggie44pride on Wed May 14, 2008 at 03:18:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Between (none / 0)

the republicans and democrats I've seen 300k (214k for the dfl, but we were lost a mid super tuesday, I bet if we were later or earlier in the cycle we would have gotten over 700k just on the DFL side(we got 7 visits total from both candidates and the student vote could have easily been 3 times as high).


Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!
by Student Guy on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:32:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (none / 0)

You are comparing caucuses and primaries that are weeks apart. Apples and oranges to begin with.

To see if one is really unfair, you need to have corresponding polling data to see if at the time the results are skewed, to see if the results vary greatly from the results.

Unless you have date corresponding data, you really can only make assumptions from a couple of events that are divided by time and emphasis (presidential delegate choices v local stuff).


by IowaMike on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:28:53 AM EST

Re: Nebraska primary results (2.00 / 4)

The Texas primary and caucus were on the same day.

The Washington primary and caucus were about a week apart.

The Nebraska primary and caucus were months apart.

All three indicated the exact same trend: Hillary does substantially better in primaries than in caucuses in the same state.


by markjay on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:36:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (none / 0)

Texas is messed up. Can't compare that mess to anyone. Heck, they gave us Bush.

The other two, the emphasis was different, and that is a big deal.

And months apart, enough said.

Now, did the caucus results vary greatly from same time polling?

And the primary results, do they vary from similar time polling. That is how you determine problems. Otherwise you are just making assumptions.


by IowaMike on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:45:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (2.00 / 2)

According to Pollster.com, there were no primary/caucus polls taken in Nebraska this election cycle.

Social science doesn't deal in certainties.  It deals in best interpretations of available evidence.  Take into consideration the following:
(a) Texas results
(b) Washington results
(c) Nebraska results
(d) wild discrepancies between primary results nationally (which favor Clinton slightly) and caucus results nationally (which favor Obama dramatically)
(e) Clinton's strength among low-income voters (who are known to have a harder time participating in caucuses) as compared to Obama's strength among high-income voters (who are known to participate more easily in caucuses)

All these things make it evident that the caucus system favors Obama.  If you want to suggest these are only "assumptions," be my guest.


by markjay on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:58:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (2.00 / 2)

It also addresses when there is a lack of evidence.
And you can't assume trends on too few data points.  And Clinton has regional strengths with low-income white voters, see Appalachia, that she doesn't have in other areas, see Wisconsin and Oregon (polling there).
by IowaMike on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:03:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (none / 0)

Right, but caucuses measure party and activist support, while primaries measure more protest votes ("I don't like Hillary but we can't let that Muslim win"), and  Dem-for-a-day votes that won't deliver in the Fall.


by rhetoricus on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:41:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (2.00 / 3)

I just posted the (un) democratic party saying (more or less) the same thing!!!

Totally agree.


by nikkid on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:30:26 AM EST

Re: Nebraska primary results (2.00 / 4)

The results of a meaningless primary are just that...meaningless.

It cannot be known how many don't vote because it doesn't matter, so any conclusions drawn from this comparison are inherently faulty.


Donate to Obama, Today!
by freedom78 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:32:20 AM EST

Not to those voters (2.00 / 1)

and not to the perceptions of people who are paying attention. This IS a building and very proven narrative at this point- I would expect the Clinton campaign to start taking this up, soon...
by linc on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:43:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not to those voters (none / 0)

Sorry, I should clarify.  Obviously it means enough to some that they voted.  But I meant "meaningless" in that it has no result that directly affects the way in which delegates are chosen (and, thus, the way a nominee is chosen).  

It's impossible to know how many voted in the caucuses and didn't vote this time, how many voted this time because the race is close but didn't take the time to caucus, etc.  To compare the two results and reach a conclusion about the validity of caucuses versus primaries is spurious, because they took place three months apart.  To make that case requires a much closer (ideally same day) time frame, which just doesn't exist.  


Donate to Obama, Today!
by freedom78 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 10:17:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

when you hold an election... (none / 0)

and state that the results do not matter, you invalidate that election's results.


by Casuist on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:34:55 AM EST

Re: when you hold an election... (2.00 / 4)

The Texas primary and caucuses mattered, and the exact same trend held true: Clinton did substantially better in the primary than in the caucus.


by markjay on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:37:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

by 8%... (2.00 / 1)

that's a credible difference... that doesn't change the results of the caucuses much at all.


by Casuist on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:42:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: by 8%... (2.00 / 3)

Hillary went from +4 (51 to 47) in the primary to -12 (56-44) in the caucus -- a different of 16%.


by markjay on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:46:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: by 8%... (none / 0)

Again Texas is a unique and messed up system. They should choose one or the other.


by IowaMike on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:51:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: by 8%... (2.00 / 1)

Again Texas is a unique and messed up system

You are unwilling to say what anyone with a brain would draw from those Texas results about caucus versus primary numbers...

Or do you think Barack Obama is more popular in North Dakota and Colorado than his home state?


by reggie44pride on Wed May 14, 2008 at 03:23:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

we're using the same number... (2.00 / 1)

and that change in the margine would have resulted in Obama winning every single state in which he is presently credited with a victory under the caucus system, with the exception of Iowa (which would have gone to Edwards before Clinton anyway).


by Casuist on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:52:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: when you hold an election... (2.00 / 1)

BTW, 3 data points (two really) don't make a trend.


by IowaMike on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:52:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (none / 0)

We'll find out on June 3 how well Obama does up there in real primaries... if Obama bothers to even show up, that is.


by Beet on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:35:52 AM EST

Re: Nebraska primary results (2.00 / 1)

Already ignoring Oregon?


by IowaMike on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:04:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (2.00 / 3)

November could be really really terrible...


Fight for Democrats in Congress.
by owl06 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:37:53 AM EST

Re: Nebraska primary results (none / 0)

It will be terrible if it goes to convention. We lose, no matter the nominee, if it goes to convention.


by IowaMike on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:47:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (2.00 / 2)

history tells another story.


Fight for Democrats in Congress.
by owl06 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:56:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (2.00 / 2)

Really, cause the last time we won was with FDR, and we had the Great Depression helping him with that one.

We have lost every GE since then when we have a convention battle. Tell me when otherwise.


by IowaMike on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:05:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

We got our second Great Depression (2.00 / 1)

going on right now- its called Bush.
by linc on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:45:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (none / 0)

We lose, no matter the nominee, if it goes to convention

Is that why Kennedy has been so bitter this past week?  Remembering that he fucked us over in 1980?


by reggie44pride on Wed May 14, 2008 at 03:24:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (none / 0)

Eliminate the caucuses in 2012.  They are an impediment to the Democratic process of selecting nominee.  Remove Superdelegates from the process, remove pledged delegates from the process, and go just by the popular vote.

This process is insane and inane.


No candidacy is more important than the right to vote.
by hornplayer on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:39:28 AM EST

Re: Nebraska primary results (none / 0)

How do you do that when some states use caucuses in part because they don't have the funds for primaries?


by rfahey22 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:42:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (none / 0)

The DNC should help pay for it.


No candidacy is more important than the right to vote.
by hornplayer on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:56:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (none / 0)

The DNC doesn't have that much money.  Besides, it would probably require cooperation by the state governments, and would they be willing to have the DNC play that role, or trust that it could come through?


by rfahey22 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:00:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (none / 0)

The same DNC whose rules you find unacceptable?


by IowaMike on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:07:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (none / 0)

What does that have to do with what he was talking about?


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:27:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (none / 0)

Well, would you want an organization you don't trust to be put in charge of running primaries?


by IowaMike on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:31:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (none / 0)

Not running, paying for.  There is a distinction.


No candidacy is more important than the right to vote.
by hornplayer on Wed May 14, 2008 at 04:12:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (none / 0)

When you pay for something, you are responsible to provide the service. Distinction in name only.


by IowaMike on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:20:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (none / 0)

Yup.


No candidacy is more important than the right to vote.
by hornplayer on Wed May 14, 2008 at 03:33:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (none / 0)

So California, New York, Illinois and Florida pick the candidate?  Not a big fan of the GReat Compromise I suppose?


by Same As It Ever Was on Wed May 14, 2008 at 10:32:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (none / 0)

The people in this primary knew that their votes would not count.  It's an interesting result but it's not one that someone can use as proof of anything without more analysis.  


by rfahey22 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:41:37 AM EST

Re: Nebraska primary results (2.00 / 3)

Thanks for the Nebraska report, Markjay. Excellent analysis.


I'm United Methodist. I already have a Messiah.
by KnowVox on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:44:06 AM EST

Re: Nebraska primary results (none / 0)

Analysis based on opinion, not real measurable time comparable facts.


by IowaMike on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:46:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (2.00 / 1)

I displayed the facts above and you pleasantly ignored them. Again, Iowa, Nevada, Washington, Texas, Nebraska. All show discrepancies in final delegate counts, and or primary results.

Caucuses are a disaster. I have been against them since 2004 and I will always be against them.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:26:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (none / 0)

Iowa hasn't had a primary.

And again, discrepancies are to be expected when people have different expectations on what they are showing up for, or if opinions changed over time.

Now Texas, I agree, is messed up. the dual in one day makes it even worse.

The question is, did the primaries or caucuses vary from actual public opinion more and you don't seem to have anyway (here) to measure or compare that.


by IowaMike on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:35:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (none / 0)

did the primaries or caucuses vary from actual public opinion more and you don't seem to have anyway (here) to measure or compare that

See this SUSA poll. The poll was taken from the same time period.  It shows that those who will caucus have a different preference than those who will vote in a standard election

Among those who say they will caucus as Democrats, Obama has a 2:1 advantage over Clinton, 63% to 33%  Overall, Obama leads Clinton by just 5 points, 50-45, but maintains a significant advantage among those who will caucus

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=4f7f4146-bce7-43fc-9ca8-ad7bd6 f68a86


by reggie44pride on Wed May 14, 2008 at 03:32:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (2.00 / 1)

Now you have 1 legitimate data point!

Not enough for a trend, but it is true in WA.

The closeness of the two activities is the interesting point here. And do the voters actually understand that the primary really doesn't effect the presidential race?

I did notice that Survey USA has a disclaimer stating that the results are not up to their standards at the top.


by IowaMike on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:36:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (none / 0)

I did notice that Survey USA has a disclaimer stating that the results are not up to their standards at the top

I did notice that they were exactly right for election day though.

General preference was Obama +5

Caucus preference was Obama 2 to 1.

Both are almost spot on to what happened.

You now have two data points.  Texas (same day caucus results were 16 points better for Obama than primary result) and Washington.


by reggie44pride on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:37:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (none / 0)

So why didn't Hillary bother organizing for the majority of the caucuses?  If the Nebraska results are indicative of anything, she would have locked up the nomination a month ago.  

Its amazing such an unknown, empty suit, unelectable candidate has beaten Team Clinton.  If anyone should have known the rules, it would have been the Clintons.  Hats off to the guy, he ran a great campaign!    


by Rick in Eugene on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:48:20 AM EST

Re: Nebraska primary results (2.00 / 1)

I agree with you--Obama ran a  great campaign.

I think Obama's strong advantages over Clinton in caucuses was due to three reasons:

(1) Obama's inherent advantage in caucuses (due to his appeal to higher income, higher educated, and activist voters)

(2) Obama's greater resources for mobilizing for caucuses (including, for example, more money)

(3) Obama's effective caucus strategy

In other words, Clinton could have reduced Obama's margins in caucuses partially with a better strategy (factor 3), but there wasn't much she could do about factors 1 and 2 even if she had a better strategy.


by markjay on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:05:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (2.00 / 2)

Hillary had early advantages in money and organization but blew them.

Have you been to a caucus? I've been going for 20 years. Its an older working class crowd.

Your number three is dead on, because he has run a better campaign, period.


by IowaMike on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:18:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Hillary won the Nevada caucuses (2.00 / 1)

And you know why? Because she decided to compete in them. And I give her credit for her victory there - she fought hard, and she won.

But she didn't do that in most of the rest of the caucus states.

Hillary lost the caucuses because she chose not to contest them. That's on her.


by Angry White Democrat on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:32:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary won the Nevada caucuses (none / 0)

And I give her credit for her victory there - she fought hard, and she won

She did not even win.

She lost Nevada given the delegate system Democrats use.


by reggie44pride on Wed May 14, 2008 at 03:33:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary won the Nevada caucuses (none / 0)

She knows the rules, supposedly. She approved them. Complaining now just sounds like a sore loser whining.


by IowaMike on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:38:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (none / 0)

You forget that Obama was behind in the money game even up to Super Tuesday.  It was in February that he took that lead.

Clinton had the resources to compete in these primaries, but she was running a bad strategy of only caring about "the big states."

If I wanted a President with a bad mind for strategy, I'd support the current one...


CAN EVREEWUN HAZ REC/RATE BACK?
by ScienceTeacher118 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:02:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (none / 0)

Can someone explain to me how this primary is important since people knew it didn't count or is this the new FLA and MI thing by us Clinton supporters? I need to know in order to be on the talking points.


by Hillarywillwin on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:00:34 AM EST

Re: Nebraska primary results (2.00 / 1)

Thanks for the excellent analysis, Markjay. If the caucuses BO won are not discounted and he ends up getting the nomination based on the delegates from red state caucuses, we have a recipe for disaster. Primaries are far better predictors of GE results and Hillary performed splendidly where it counts. Ignore the facts at your peril, SDs.


by Nobama on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:08:03 AM EST

Re: Nebraska primary results (none / 0)

and you base that on? Oh yeah, info only from states Clinton won.  That will work in the GE.


by IowaMike on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:19:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

you seem to be unaware of the fact... (2.00 / 2)

that Obama leads the popular vote in primaries.


by Casuist on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:54:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: you seem to be unaware of the fact... (none / 0)

Not true.


by markjay on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:49:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: you seem to be unaware of the fact... (2.00 / 2)

State    Date    Open/Closed    Obama    Clinton
New Hampshire    8-Jan        104,815    112,404
South Carolina    26-Jan        294,898    140,990
Delaware    5-Feb        51,148    40,760
Utah    5-Feb        74,538    51,333
Arkansas    5-Feb        82,476    220,136
Connecticut    5-Feb        179,742    165,426
Oklahoma    5-Feb        130,130    228,480
Arizona    5-Feb        193,126    229,501
Alabama    5-Feb        300,319    223,089
Tennessee    5-Feb        252,874    336,245
Missouri    5-Feb        406,917    395,185
Georgia    5-Feb        704,247    330,026
New Jersey    5-Feb        501,372    613,500
Massachusetts    5-Feb        511,887    704,591
New York    5-Feb        751,019    1,068,496
Illinois    5-Feb        1,318,234    667,930
California    5-Feb        2,186,662    2,608,184
Louisiana    9-Feb        220,632    136,925
District of Columbia    12-Feb        93,386    29,470
Maryland    12-Feb        532,665    314,211
Virginia    12-Feb        627,820    349,766
Wisconsin    19-Feb        646,851    453,954
Vermont    4-Mar        91,901    59,806
Rhode Island    4-Mar        75,316    108,949
Ohio    4-Mar        1,055,769    1,259,620
Texas    4-Mar        1,362,476    1,462,734
Mississippi    11-Mar        265,730    159,273
Pennsylvania    22-Apr        1,046,822    1,260,937
Indiana    6-May        629,310    643,797
North Carolina    6-May        875,683    652,824
West Virginia    13-May        91,652    239,062
total            15,660,417    15,267,604

Only a tally in which Obama is credited with no votes in MI leaves Clinton ahead.

Or, in other words: "true."


by Casuist on Wed May 14, 2008 at 10:01:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: you seem to be unaware of the fact... (2.00 / 2)

Well, unfortunately for Obama, he did receive 0 votes in Michigan, so Clinton is ahead in primaries.

By the time June 3 rolls around, you'll also be able to allocate all the uncommitted vote from Michigan to Obama (even though there were many Edwards supporters in Michigan) and Clinton will still have won the popular vote from primaries.


by markjay on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:10:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

good luck with that... (none / 0)

Glad to see you've abandoned any pretense at the notion of supporting a democratic ideal.

You think providing Obama with no votes represents the will of Michigan?

You think telling voters beforehand that a vote is irrelevant results in a valid contest?

The only conclusion to be drawn from that is that you have no interest in "democratic" results, but rather results that favor your candidate.


by Casuist on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:24:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

This point from TX is essential: (1.50 / 10)

Only in counties that were together enough to report most of their results on election day, did caucus numbers magically match the popular vote. In the counties where there was chaos, Obama magically created wins in the double digits.


There is actually a reason for this. As we documented, the game of hard ball played by Obama's caucus people was unacceptable by any reasonable standards of democratic society.


I'm not really that into nominating someone with a campaign that has to use fraud to win.

by Pacific John on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:44:42 AM EST

Hey, John... (none / 0)

Do you have any evidence yet or are still full of shit?  Still waiting for the lawsuit or affidavits.  Why can't you present any evidence of a fraud so massive?


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:39:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska primary results (none / 0)

The process was made before anyone knew who it would benefit.  There have been primaries and caucuses in this process for decades.  You can't change the rules after the game.

News flash: the electoral college winner is elected President, not the popular vote winner.  You think you will be able to change that rule after the fact too?  Cause you won't.


by gorebeatbush2 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 03:50:29 AM EST

Re: Nebraska primary results (2.00 / 1)

In keeping with the spirit of the DNC rules that require selection processes to "encourage the participation of all Democrats," the DNC made a stunning announcement that no further consideration would be made for seating the FL & MI delegates.  

Democratic voter turnouts in those states clearly fell well below national averages, clearly indicating those processes were not in keeping with the spirit of the Rules.  HRC supporters were herewith encouraged to STFU about FL & MI if they're going to complain about NE.


Nos causidicus Obama , ergo nos non suadeo
by rb608 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 06:45:05 AM EST

Just another argument against caucuses (2.00 / 1)


by Mayor McCheese on Wed May 14, 2008 at 10:28:58 AM EST

Re: Nebraska primary results (2.00 / 1)

Obama won the caucus -- Obama won the primary.  Seems like the caucus accurately reflected the will of the people of Nebraska.  You're just arguing about the margin in terms of delegates.  

I thought delegates were an inherently undemocratic metric as well?  You folks need to get your arguments straight so you at least tell a consistent story.


by Same As It Ever Was on Wed May 14, 2008 at 10:36:35 AM EST

State legislatures can (none / 0)

award electoral votes any way they please, as observed in the Constitution and confirmed by Bush v. Gore.  I suggest we lobby the 23 states with legislatures where Democrats control both houses to institute caucuses to decide the allotment of those state's electoral votes.  (We should ask them to hold beauty contests, too, just to give the people the sense that their aspirations actually matter.)


Another Hillary Supporter for Obama!
by Beltway Dem on Wed May 14, 2008 at 10:48:54 AM EST

You be more credible if you had the right date... (none / 0)

(the caucus was on Feb. 9th) and did not mistake Nevada and Nebraska.  Otherwise this diary is completely full of shit, b/c it ignores the effect the Senate primary may of had on the presidential preference primary.  Moreover, it does not acknowledge the numbers of people who did not show up b/c this primary did not allocate delegates.  You're reaching.


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:36:48 AM EST

Re: Nebraska primary results (2.00 / 2)

markjay, get your facts straight.

"In the Feb. 14 Nevada caucus, the results were:
Obama: 68% (26,126 votes) (16 delegates)
Clinton: 32% (12,445) (8 delegates)
Vote margin: 13,681"

First off, it was Nebraska, not Nevada.

Secondly, those totals are STATE DELEGATES, not individual voters.  The actual count of caucus participants is much higher.


CAN EVREEWUN HAZ REC/RATE BACK?
by ScienceTeacher118 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:40:51 AM EST

All this is academic (none / 0)

The rules have been on the books since long before the nomination process began. The whining, however, began after the shock of Super Tuesday and hasn't abated since is like so many .

If one of the candidates didn't know the rules when they got involved in this process, I don't want that person as my president.


by bookish on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:15:30 PM EST

Hmm... "non-binding"... (none / 0)

Like Florida and Michigan, I would hesitate to take to heart the results of an election whose participants know ahead of time that it won't count for anything.


by ZombieRoboNinja on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:28:12 PM EST

Re: Nebraska primary results (none / 0)

A very important question that you not surprisingly don't ask is this:

Why does Clinton do so poorly in caucuses?

She and her campaign new that