Nebraska held a non-binding primary tonight. The results confirm earlier results from both Washington State and Texas indicating that Hillary Clinton's support level in primaries -- where there are far few obstacles toward participating and everyone's ballot is secret -- is much greater than in caucuses, which are much more difficult to participate in and often require a non-secret ballot vote.
In the Feb. 14 Nevada caucus, the results were:
Obama: 68% (26,126 votes) (16 delegates)
Clinton: 32% (12,445) (8 delegates)
Vote margin: 13,681
In the May 13 Nebraska primary votes tonight (where considerably more people voted than in the caucus, but no delegates were awarded), the final results were as follows.
Obama: 49% (45,952 votes) (would equal 12 delegates)
Clinton: 46% (43,357 votes) (would equal 12 delegates)
Vote margin: 2,595
Difference between primary and caucus
Obama votes: +19,832 (+75.9%)
Clinton votes: +30,912 (+248.4%)
Obama over Clinton vote margin: decreases by 11,086 (decreases by 81%)
Obma over Clinton delegate margin: would decrease by 8
Now, some people will probably say that the primary results are not credible, because Obama didn't campaign for the primary. But neither did Clinton. And, if I recall correctly, Obama actually campaigned in the state for the caucus more than Hillary did. Therefore, I don't think this discrepancy is due to a lack of campaigning. It's simply the fact, as has been demonstrated in Texas earlier (where both candidates campaigned for the primary and the caucus), that in the undemocratic caucuses --where voters lack many of the rights they have in primaries (secret ballots, fast vote, opportunity for absentee ballots) -- Obama does much better than in primary elections.
This also puts to lie the notion that the caucus system penalizes Obama in the popular vote, allegedly because the states that favor him are counted for little (since so few people vote there). Here is an example, again confirming the Texas results, that Obama does considerably worse in the popular vote via primaries than he does via caucuses, even in the same state.
Unfortunately for Obama--and for the entire Democratic Party if Obama gets the nomination--there are no caucuses in November.
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