The (un) Democratic Party

Michigan and Florida vote early, are penalized to the point that their votes don't count, yet they have record turnouts.

48 other states count plus Puerto Rico, Democrats Abroad, Guam, Virgin Islands, and other places that don't actually get to vote in a Presidential election. Yet, they count MORE than 2 ACTUAL U.S. states.

Tonight Nebraska held a primary and the results were quite different than the caucus.

Around 39,000 people participated in the NE caucus. Tonight in a primary that DID NOT COUNT more than 89,000 democrats voted, 50,000 more than what participated in the caucus and this did NOT count.

You'll see similar results in the WA caucus vs primary.

Nebraska Caucus (what counts):

Obama   68%  26,126  16 delegates
Clinton 32%  12,445   8 delegates

Nebraska Primary (tonight - does not count):

Obama     49%  45,942 votes
Clinton   47%  43,357 votes

Washington Caucus (what counts):

Obama    68%  21,629  52 delegates
Clinton  31%   9,992  26 delegates

Washington Primary (did not count):

Obama   51%  354,111 votes
Clinton 46%  315,740 votes

Then, there's the Texas voting. Look at how the results differ in the primary vs. the caucus - yet more delegates are awarded to the loser based on the caucus results.

Texas Primary

Clinton 51% 1,459,814 votes 94 delegates
Obama 47%  1,358,785 votes  99 delegates

Texas Caucus

Obama  56%  23,918 votes
Clinton 44%  18,620 votes

No one will argue that Obama did an amazing job in the caucus states - but the caucus results DO NOT REFLECT the "Will of the voters" particularly when so many voters did not get to participate.

Furthermore, primaries are more reflective of a general election and provide better data regarding exit polls. They also allow more voters to participate in the process.

It is easy to see that caucuses should be banned and all states should hold primaries.

Obama supporters can argue that he won caucuses "fair and square", but did he? When so many voters that are shift workers, elderly, single moms, etc. could not participate.

I believe the Clinton campaign has a very valid argument that the popular vote is what matters. This is what determines which candidate will be a more effective nominee.

There are many primaries that Obama won fair and square, but to allow such a weak candidate to win the democratic nomination based on caucus results and delegate math that is questionable is simply a poor way to choose a nominee.

Democrats should all vote on the SAME DAY at once in a primary. Delegates should be weighted according to the population. In the current process, caucuses are favored in the delegate math and this is wrong.

I believe the nomination needs to be based on the popular vote and not some mickey mouse delegate calculation strategy that simply doesn't work.

If we want to STOP the kind of in-fighting that currently has us polarized - we need to insist that the DNC or Party change the rules and vote in a more DEMOCRATIC manner.



Display:


when its a beauty contest (none / 0)

people do not participate as much.

Nebraskan know that the primare REALLY does not count. People are not motivated to really care about it.


-- be excellent to each other
by kindthoughts on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:18:15 AM EST

That is a horrible argument (2.00 / 2)

against the base facts. So, pray tell, why the hell did twice as many vote in the Primary in NE as opposed to the caucus?
by linc on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:35:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That is a horrible argument (none / 0)

Because the primary races aren't the only things on the ballot.


by Jordache on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:47:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

So what (none / 0)

if they were sooo unmotivated, why check the box other than... wait for it... VOTE!
by linc on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:53:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

not all voters are motivated the (none / 0)

same. Some might care more about the presidential primaries. Some about local issues.


-- be excellent to each other
by kindthoughts on Wed May 14, 2008 at 03:19:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So what (none / 0)

Forgive me if I don't see your argument.  Those who wanted to influence the presidential race did so.


by Jordache on Wed May 14, 2008 at 03:48:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: when its a beauty contest (2.00 / 1)

And Obama still won.


by Same As It Ever Was on Wed May 14, 2008 at 08:52:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: when its a beauty contest (none / 0)

People participated MORE in the Ne primaries than they did in the caucuses.


by Mayor McCheese on Wed May 14, 2008 at 10:41:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

If Hillary only won, she wouldn't have lost (2.00 / 3)


"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!
by Al Rodgers on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:20:33 AM EST

Re: The (un) Democratic Party (2.00 / 1)

None of the top candidates campaigned in Florida or Michigan. The events were described in the media as "beauty contests, and voter turnout in both states was relatively low when compared with record-high turnout in other states.

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2008/03/19 disenfranchising-non-voters-in-florida- and-michigan?mod=googlenews_wsj


A useless "Community Organizer" from Pennsylvania as noted by Republicans, Rudy Giuliani and Sarah Palin
by hootie4170 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:21:10 AM EST

Arkansas is a caucus state (2.00 / 1)

Bill Clinton's home state is undemocratic.

and they have a democratic gov and legislature.


"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!
by Al Rodgers on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:21:51 AM EST

Re: Arkansas is a caucus state (none / 0)

Arkansas has a primary, not a caucus.http://politics.nytimes.com/election-gui de/2008/results/states/AR.html


by Mayor McCheese on Wed May 14, 2008 at 10:42:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The (un) Democratic Party (2.00 / 2)

Oh go stuff it.  

You KEEP selling the same thing, but mostly it seems you are talking to yourself....

We in WA state KNEW that primary was a beauty contest?

It was on a Tuesday, THAT was the gig that was difficult for working folks to make, NOT THE Caucus?

The Caucus was held on Saturday and NO ONE had ever seen those kind of numbers....

You weren't there, you don't know, so for all your sturm und drang over FL or MI, you keep telling US in Washington state, YOU want to ignore or trash our legal run, legal won Caucus?

It was real, it counted and Obama blitzed Clinton.


"Either you're the butcher Or the lamb but even so, Everybody pays as they go-Jakob Dylan"
by WashStateBlue on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:22:56 AM EST

Re: The (un) Democratic Party (none / 0)

Texas is a messed up system, but:

You are comparing caucuses and primaries that are weeks apart. Apples and oranges to begin with.

To see if one is really unfair, you need to have corresponding polling data to see if at the time the results are skewed, to see if the results vary greatly from the results.

Unless you have date corresponding data, you really can only make assumptions from 3 events that are divided by time and emphasis.


by IowaMike on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:23:58 AM EST

Re: The (un) Democratic Party (none / 0)

I'm sorry, two states and 4 events.


by IowaMike on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:24:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The (un) Democratic Party (2.00 / 2)

I would agree that we need some reforms in the primary process before 2016 (when Obama steps down after his 2nd term).

I disagree with several of your points though.

1.  We can't use the popular vote in this nomination process because the rules have already been set.  Both nominees would have run very different campaigns in order to win that style nomination.  Furthermore by changing the standards now, you are relegating caucus states to complete irrelevance.  Caucus states would have run primaries to increase their state popular vote and therefore their relevance to the nomination.

2.  Running a single-day national primary is actually a horrible idea.  It favors only well funded politicians with good name recognition.  Candidates with good ideas but no national standing (see Bill Clinton) would not have a chance.   The best plan I have seen suggests two early states (Iowa and NH) followed by regional primaries every several weeks.  Regional primaries would allow candidates to spend time in multiple states before the primary in their region.  Region and "early states" could be rotated every primary season.

I have more to say in general but this is enough to start conversation.


McCain = bad Obama = good
by CAchemist on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:27:49 AM EST

Re: The (un) Democratic Party (none / 0)

Point number two needs to be stressed again and again.  So many people don't realize that if you move to a national primary, name recognition will rule from now until forever.

I actually like the schedule just the way it is.  I'd switch Pennsylvania and Texas - what kind of sense does it make to give people just three weeks to campaign in Texas, which is like five state all-in-one, AND have it at the same time as three other states, and then give Pennsylvania which you can drive from one end to the other in a few hours six weeks?


by Jordache on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:51:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The (un) Democratic Party (none / 0)

My Cunning Plan is to let Iowa and New Hampshire do their thing at the front end, because, well, just because (also, it will annoy Markos, which is occasionally amusing), followed by a sort of micro-Super Tuesday a week or so later, with simultaneous primaries in small states in each of several geographic regions (rotated amongst the small states in each region from election to election).

After that — and here is where the whole plan gets especially cunning — have a continuing series of similar mini-Super Tuesdays, where several states at a time go in a cohort, grouped by delegate counts. Each successive cohort involves progressively larger and larger states with more and more delegates; when the primary schedule starts to get up into the really large states, then you start to go to single-state primaries.

So basically, with the exception of the relatively minor front-loading of Iowa and New Hampshire and a handful of other small states anyway, the calendar would contain a sequence of increasingly larger prizes as it went on from week to week.

This allows under-the-radar candidates to build momentum in smaller states and attempt to use that success to raise funds to compete in the larger, later states; it also eliminates the possibility of a well-heeled candidate scoring some kind of early knockout blow.

It guarantees that states are only fighting for candidate and media attention with other states in their own weight class, so to speak, at any given time; and it can shorten the primary calendar somewhat while still guaranteeing that any candidate who goes all the way will have demonstrated the ability to fundraise nationally. It increases the odds of having an interesting campaign while shortening the overall campaign season enough that people don't get sick to death of the whole thing.

Anyway, that's my never-to-be-adopted scheme.

Oh, and I get a pony, too. I forgot that part.


by Ray Radlein on Wed May 14, 2008 at 04:49:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

but Hillary disagrees with you (none / 0)

her current argument is who can win working class voters in ohio and penn, not who has wins the popular vote.


"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!
by Al Rodgers on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:39:18 AM EST

It seems to change a lot. (2.00 / 2)

I get dizzy keeping up.  Tomorrow it'll be whoever wins seniors will win.  Because the rest of us don't count (I guess).

For someone who spends a great deal of her time discounting entire states and entire demographics, it's rather...alarming how some Clinton supporters hold her up to be some champion of democratic ideals.

The Dissonance is deafening.


by DawnG on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:54:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It seems to change a lot. (2.00 / 4)


by Jordache on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:52:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Non Caucus states arn't Democratic Either. (2.00 / 3)

Delegate Apportionment by District means alot of votes do not count.

Anytime you have delegates it is undemocratic.

And "should" and current rules are two diffrent things.

The popular vote matters the day that all contests are conducted by popular vote.  And even direct popular vote has problems when multiple people are in the race, you can have the person the fewest people prefer be declared the winner.

You never have a valid arguement when  you are asking to change the rules after a contest is over.  It is made even more invalid when your proposed change intentionally skews the results in one persons favor.

Everytime this arguement is made it shows the lack of honor and integrity of the person making it.


Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win. ~ Sun Tzu
by Tumult on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:00:37 AM EST

Re: The (un) Democratic Party (2.00 / 2)

The turnouts in Michigan and Florida, while large, were not at the same rate as other states during this specific primary cycle.  One study attributes this to the fact that voters were told that their votes would not count.


by rfahey22 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:04:58 AM EST

Re: The (un) Democratic Party (2.00 / 3)

There's nothing undemocratic about caucuses.

We don't have a direct democracy, we have a representative democracy. Thus, we vote for delegates who end up actually picking our president or presidential candidates. Sometimes, this actually comes in multiple stages, where we pick delegates to pick delegates to pick delegates, etc.

In a primary, polls are open for a certain amount of time while people come in to select a candidate. Then delegates are assigned based on proportions of those votes. That's one way to do it.

Another is a caucus, where, yet again, any registered member of the party and sometimes independents or Republicans can come to select their delegates. Here, they also cast votes, yet they also engage in discussion and persuasion and fight for their candidate. Then they select a candidate.

Each state does what system is best for them. I personally think caucuses are great, when appropriate, and it can be argued that they are even more democratic. Democracy should be lived. People should be involved in the process. This should be about people not doing the easiest thing but working to select their leaders. Now, I understand that it can be more difficult for some people to get to caucuses. Which is why reform is necessary. Employers should be required to give time off for the caucuses. Additionally, absentee balloting should always be a part of the caucus system.

But honestly, there is no way this would be an argument if Hillary had not been doing so poorly in caucuses. Her organization was poor and she made a mistake, so now her supporters are crying foul on the process. Its the same with FL and MI. This has nothing to do with democracy, and everything to do with Clinton winning.


democracy!
by BlueGAinDC on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:20:58 AM EST

Re: The (un) Democratic Party (2.00 / 2)

Let's put aside the issue of this election.  Hillary got smoked in the caucuses and its her own fault (I was a HRC supporter for the record).

Caucuses are fundamentally undemocratic, because they are exclusionary and they violate the principle of the secret ballot.

They effectively raise barriers to participation that disenfranchise people on a massive level.  Look at Nebraska.  They exceeded all expectations, but still attracted less than 10% of the state's registered Democrats to caucus.  That is truly paltry.  Even worse, a lot of evidence suggests that the disenfranchising pattern of caucuses is systematically biased against lower income voters.  Very democratic!  Allow 5-10% of a state's Democrats, who skew way toward the younger and wealthier, to determine the vote.  If the democratic party wants to have any credibility in its stances against disenfranchisement through other means, it needs to rid itself of this horrific legacy of the age of machine politics.

You say that each state should do what's best for them, even if it disenfranchises millions of people.  That's an argument that was frequently made by proponents of the literacy test and the poll tax.  Incredibly, its not obvious that those heinous devices actually disenfranchised more people than a caucus that draws 5% of the eligible population.

Democracy should be lived, but it should be lived through a secret ballot voting process that is open to all.  If you want to debate with your neighbors, go to a coffee shop or grab a soap box and set up in the town square.  A lot of people don't like to debate, don't want to have to justify their choice to others, and are extremely uncomfortable in those situations.  The right to have your voice heard anonymously is an absolutely fundamental principle of any democratic system.  


John McCain: Extending SCHIP would be an "unfunded liability."
by Fuzzy Dunlop on Wed May 14, 2008 at 08:51:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The (un) Democratic Party (2.00 / 1)

Well stated. This "Debate with your neigbors argument" holds no water. Nothing in a democracy requires you to do this and there's probably little point in it anyway.


by Mayor McCheese on Wed May 14, 2008 at 10:46:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The (un) Democratic Party (2.00 / 1)

The lack of a secret ballot in a caucus and the fact that certain candidates are designated officially "Not viable" it undemocratic, IMHO.


by Mayor McCheese on Wed May 14, 2008 at 10:44:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The (un) Democratic Party (none / 0)

A secret ballot is not a necessary part of democracy. It wasn't until the late 1800s that they began using secret ballots in the US.
If it were necessary for democracy, then already our convention would not be democratic, because all the delegates make their vote known before the convention.

As for the not viable part, that is certainly not undemocratic. Its merely an instant runoff. Are you saying runoffs are undemocratic? If someone cannot get enough votes to gain a delegate to move on, then they can choose to support a different candidate, just like a runoff.


democracy!
by BlueGAinDC on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:15:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The (un) Democratic Party (2.00 / 2)

I'm all for overhauling the existing voting system for future elections - caucuses are not the best way to go by any means.

That said, I don't see how it is a viable argument. The Clintons had two Presidential primaries under their belt...they knew what was ahead and how things worked. No excuses.


by GrahamCracker on Wed May 14, 2008 at 06:07:06 AM EST

Re: The (un) Democratic Party (2.00 / 1)

Look if you hate the process so much work to change it between elections. This is the system we're stuck with for this go around. Do you really think that either Obama, or for that matter Hillary, would have used the exact same election strategy if the rules were different? Of course not. I agree with you on some of your points, but the rules are what they were set to at the beginning of the game. You don't get to change them after your candidate lost.


John McCain supports privatizing Social Security.
by Travis Stark on Wed May 14, 2008 at 08:09:10 AM EST


You are not logged in.

In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.

If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.