and I'll say it again, the republicans are toast this year.  Thats why I expect Clinton to fight all the way to the final chance is closed (and I would expect Obama to do the same if the roles were reversed).

The republicans are in crisis mode and McCain is just the guy to fracture it further.

The sane part of the republican party is cleaving from the psychos at an alarming rate.  And yes, there is a sane, moderate part to the republican party.  They are tired of the fiscal mismanagement, the theocracy pandering, the continuous war footing, the incompetent governing and the secrecy and loyalty to cult of personality, etc.

This is all anecdotal so take it for what its worth.

I grew up next door to one of my 2 US senators (long retired) who is a republican and is completely shattered at what his party has become (he talks to my mom quite often at church so she gives me the summary).  He was one of the middle of the road kind of people.  He said the mood in the republican party is that the crazies have taken over and veered so far away from what it was built on that the democrats have taken the lead on what is important to them (fiscal management).  He is committed to trying to work from the inside to bring it back but he doesnt think it is going to happen for a long time and he feels the moderates are going to run like crazy from the republicans for years to come.

These republicans might not feel a great kinship with the democrats but they like both our candidates (Obama more) and hate McCain as they cant trust him.  Plus they fear that the psycho side of their party which has been mostly kept under wraps will come out in full on frothing at the mouth hysteria during this campaign and paint the republican party even more like rabid taliban-esque throw backs.  And thus pushing more moderates away from them.

They fear how low the 527's will go and they think McCain is a disaster and nowhere near what they believed he used to be in the 90's.

So many are going to be crossing over to the D side this year.

So I think this is going to be a watershed year for democrats and why I want to get a nominee sooner rather than later so we can start to build that crushing momentum.

Well I guess Obama will be the great uniter in one sense.

Very few GOP voters will find McCain too liberal but Obama more desirable...

Not to mention, who is Russert? Who is Mathews? How the Republicans have been able to game our Primaries and Caucus' so that we really don't know. Are Republicans smarter  than Democrats after all?

McCain should be worried about getting Democrats from PA. He might need them. He only got something like 72 percent of the republican vote in PA, losing 16 percent of the republican vote to Ron Paul who has been dead in the water for a long time.  Ron Paul followers aren't likely to go to McCain, in my mind since RP represents about the opposite of McCain in a lot of areas.  I would suspect they will go to Bob Barr who doesn't believe in preemptive strikes such as in Iraq.  Who of Ron Pauls people would vote for Mccain when they have another choice similar to Ron himself?

AND add to that that Barr is now running for president, so those Republicans who were going to vote for him because there was no one else now have a choice,

if he takes even 1-2% in some of those really close states that could really make a difference.

When have voter turnout/registration numbers ever been this lopsided towards Democrats in the past?  In some elections, Obama or Clinton had more votes than the entire Republican field combined.  Also, Democrats are winning special election after special election in districts that went for Bush by a large margin in 2004.  

The stage is set for a landslide victory.

If you go back to 1952, every president has won the electoral vote in the tri-state coal region of Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia, with one exception.  Bush won twice narrowly.  Clinton won twice handily -- the EV proportion often mirrors the national contest.  You can see the stats at a diary I published at
 http://rezkowatch.blogspot.com/2008/05/r ezkowatch-electability-2008-coal.html

The one exception was 1968, when Humphrey carried a majority of those EVs, but lost the traditionally Solid  South because of George Wallace's third party candidacy.  

The current averages of state head-to-head polls comes from RealClearPolitics. In Pennsylvania, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) beats Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) by 6.8%, while Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) leads Sen. McCain by 1.2%.

In Ohio, Sen. Clinton beats Sen. McCain by 5.4%, while Sen. McCain beats Sen. Obama by 3.4%. I have seen no WV head to head polls, but Sen. Clinton presently leads Sen. Obama among polled Democrats by 30+ points.

If one throws Florida into head-to-head results, Sen. McCain defeats Sen. Obama by 9.0%, while Sen. Clinton defeats Sen. McCain by 1.7%.

Also, KY, where Obama is not popular, generally picks the winner.  Are readers aware that Clinton won it twice?

Both parties are imploding right now. Tons of democrats aren't going to vote for Obama and there are republicans that don't want McCain.

The writer's of letters 2 and 4 have it exactly right. I fear Dems may have blown it, again.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/13/opinio n/l13elect.html?_r=1&ref=opinion& ;oref=slogin

The irony here, and misfortune, is that it's Clinton who knew this campaign was about winning the General and Obamans who made it about race by using the Karl Rove tactic of turning an asset - the Clintons have been a racism antidote (read "The Clinton Wars" and the role racism played in the GOP's relentless assaults on Bill Clinton) at risk to themselves politically - into a liability.  How perverted that they would accuse them of race baiting and racism.  How sad that it worked!

Very unfortunate.

- but today is election day in West Virginia, so as I was driving from early morning campaign activities to work (or, well, I suppose to goofing off on the internets?  Nah: I'll go work in a half second), random local talk radio dude sent all his random local Rethug listeners to vote for Ron Paul, proclaiming that he would never ever vote for that Democrat in Republican clothing, John McCain.  I dunno what that means - I mean, some of the criticism from the wacko fringe might help McCain hold onto that "I hate your candidate, why did he/she win" vote that shows up in Democratic primary exit polling, but the wackos are passionate enough usually to donate money and put up signs, so maybe it's a net positive.

For whatever it's worth.

OT, but I've been wondering about this:

Does anyone know how Matthews came to be called "Tweety"?

The next President will not get a honeymoon, and will be saddled with the debacles of the Bush dynasty to boot. The cynical part of me would be just fine with a McCain win in November, since the probability of success for anyone holding the office is very low.

If a McCain victory is in the cards, then I'd prefer that he win running against Hillary in order to maximize the likelihood that the Clinton-Bush choke hold on American politics is broken forever.

As for Republicans, they won't defect, imho.

How are both Dems slightly but clearly ahead in polling over McCain if all of these voters in the Democratic primary are going to vote for him?  Either, 1) They are telling exit pollsters one thing and regular pollsters something different (unlikely because what's the point), 2)  They are being offset by non-participants who will switch over the the Dem in the GE, or 3)  A lot more Dems than Repubs right now.

I think most of us agree that 2 and 3 are in play.

returns?

I mean, last week, CNN was all primed to do a countdown to the minute the polls closed in NC so they could all scream "Obama wins" (kind of like watching the new year's ball drop in Times Square).

I assume tonight the returns will just be an aside in their normal "shows".

ABC/Washington Post Poll

Who would you like to see win the Democratic nomination for president this year? (5/11/08)

Obama 53
Clinton 41

If the 2008 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were (John McCain, the Republican) and (Barack Obama, the Democrat), for whom would you vote?  (5/11/08)

Obama  51
McCain  44

So, the sky isn't falling.  Chill out Chicken Littles and let the GE campaign get started before you write off our man.  Seems the electorate isn't with you "Hillary or Bust" folks.  Heck, Obama beats Hillary in this poll more soundly than he beats McCain and she's been running against him for a year, using all the same tactics McCain will use.

Still room on the bandwagon.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/pol itics/documents/postpoll_051208.html

subject to all the errors such polls always introduce. The polling of this sort has been all over the place this year. This particular poll happens to have come up with some very favorable numbers for Democrats, nationally -- far more so than other polls. Such polls will always have pretty positive underlying numbers, but they can scarcely be believed if their samples are to begin with far too favorable.

But the real polls to pay attention to are the exit polls in particular key states. It's in those states that the election is won or lost, and the exit polls are by far the most reliable: not only are they far more likely to get representative samples, they also tend to have far larger numbers in their samples.

And that's where a very different picture emerges: namely of a very large number of Democrats who, at least at this stage, say they won't support the Democratic candidate if their favored candidate is not the nominee--especially if they are Clinton supporters (in NC, for instance, essentially half of Clinton supporters said that, and, as I recollect, the same was true for IN -- neither of them may be swing states, but they do have large segments of the white working class bloc shared across many states).

Let's not Blame Obama or Clinton for this, let's blame the geniuses that decided that the best plan to take back the White House after the failed Bush Administration was this:

2008 Plan:

1. Anoint a baggage-laden ex-First Lady as the inevitable candidate years ahead of the race.

2. Vote (in strangely large numbers) for the token "Black" candidate among the 27 original contenders and screw up Step 1 of the Plan unmercifully.

3. Generate huge animosity between the supporters of your 2 remaining candidates.

4. Lather, Rinse, Repeat.

Hillary just lost a PLEDGED delegate.  If you recall, this was HER argument.  And now it's working against her.  Wow!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con tent/article/2008/05/12/AR2008051202554. html

Prince George's County Executive Jack B. Johnson, a Democratic convention delegate pledged to support Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, said yesterday that he thinks Sen. Barack Obama has "in a real sense" won the Democratic nomination and that he now plans to support Obama at the August convention.

Obama's supporters have been pointing out that many if not most of these so called "defectors" were really Republicans who weren't going to vote Democratic in November anyway if their fave didn't get nominated (in response to claims that Obama was unelectable because of them.)

I'm increasingly convinced that most, if not all, of the 'I'll never vote for that incompetent nasty doomed loser Obama who stole the nomination and hates fair elections' crowd here are Republicans trying to sow dissent and continuing acrimony as we move into the General Election campaign.

As many have said, it's one thing to support your candidate and criticize your opponent.  It's quite another, on a site devoted to electing Democrats and promoting progressive values and policies, to threaten to vote for the Republican and/or undermine the obvious (for math aficionados) Democratic nominee.  And frankly, I personally have little respect for those who will write in a name or who will not vote at all in November, though that doesn't piss me off quite as much as those threatening to directly (rather than indirectly) vote for a continuation of the ruinous policies of the last 8 years.

My first choice presidential candidate isn't the nominee, but I like Democrats and Democratic policies.  Hopefully in a few weeks things will have toned down in here and we can share a collective goal of electing Democrats at all levels in November.  Our country's future depends on it.