7,697-vote margin for Childers
Greg Davis (R): 49,285 votes (46 percent)
√ Travis Childers (D): 56,982 votes (54 percent)99.8 percent of precincts reporting at 10:55 PM Eastern
Update [2008-5-13 22:16:35 by Jonathan Singer]: The AP calls it for Childers!!!
Update [2008-5-13 22:3:44 by Jonathan Singer]: Childers' lead is down to just 700 votes with a little under three-quarters of the vote in. Weirdly enough, though, this might actually be good news for the Democrat. Why? Almost all of the vote (about 95 percent) from DeSoto County, which is by far the biggest GOP stronghold in the district, has reported, so there isn't a whole lot of favorable territory left out there for Davis. What's more, while Davis won DeSoto by an 81 percent to 17 percent margin last time, he only leads 74 percent to 26 percent at this point. With none of Democratic-friendly Prentiss County reporting (though none of the last GOP county, Tate, reporting either), this one will go down to the wire.
Update [2008-5-13 21:47:56 by Jonathan Singer]: A big chunk of DeSoto County just reported, pushing Davis up closer to Childers. Tate County, which is the other key for Davis' success, has not yet begun reporting. But Prentiss County, where Childers netted about 3,500 votes in the last round of balloting, has not yet begun to report, either, so expect these numbers to continue to jump around.
Update [2008-5-13 21:36:54 by Jonathan Singer]: More than half of the vote has reported and Childers' lead is larger than it has been at any other point in the night, over 3,600 votes. It WELL worth remembering, though, that in the last round of balloting here (as well as the election a week and a half ago in Louisiana) the Republicans led for much of the night only to be overtaken by the Democrats when it counted. So stay tuned...
Previous updates below the fold...
Update [2008-5-13 21:30:10 by Jonathan Singer]: Still no Prentiss, but Childers' lead is growing? Not a bad sign at all.
Update [2008-5-13 21:28:8 by Jonathan Singer]: With more than two-fifths of the vote in (none from D-friendly Prentiss County but nearly half in from GOP-heavy DeSoto County), Childers lead it up to nearly 2,500 votes.
Update [2008-5-13 21:18:25 by Jonathan Singer]: With nearly a third of the vote reporting -- including about a third of the vote in DeSoto County, which is key for Davis, but none of the vote reporting out of Prentiss County, which is key to Childers -- Childers' lead is up to over 2,500 votes. There remain a whole lot of votes to be counted, however, so stay tuned...
Update [2008-5-13 21:8:7 by Jonathan Singer]: The GOP stronghold of DeSoto County is beginning to report, cutting Childers' lead from about 2,000 votes to about 1,500 votes. But with nearly one-fifth of the vote in, Childers is leading, so here's to hoping...
Update [2008-5-13 21:1:29 by Jonathan Singer]: Going through the county-by-county results, nothing in yet from Republican-heavy DeSoto county, so these numbers will move around. Then again, nothing from Prentiss County, which has been key to Childers' success in the previous rounds, is reporting yet, either.
Update [2008-5-13 20:57:30 by Jonathan Singer]: FINALLY some numbers -- and they don't look too bad at all. But stick around...
Remember, this district has a Cook PVI of R+10, meaning that it tends to lean about 10 points more Republican than the nation as a whole in presidential elections. Remember, too, that Childers did pretty well in the last round of balloting. This should be fun, and we'll be liveblogging it all night here at MyDD.
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