Early Exit polling for WV

by Jerome Armstrong, Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:25:32 PM EST

Nothing too surprising, via the AP.

About 75% agree on supporting suspension of the gas tax (not even with the windfall tax on the table), 70% of Clinton and 50% of Obama supporters, but I don't think its been much of an issue.

... AND LOOKING AHEAD TO NOVEMBER

Barely a third of Clinton supporters say they'd vote for Obama over John McCain in a November matchup. As many claim they'd vote for Republican John McCain and a quarter said they would not vote for president. If that horse race were Clinton vs. McCain, half of Obama backers say they'd vote for Clinton, about three in 10 say they'd back McCain and the rest would stay home.
The comparison that many make of Obama's situation, with that of Bill Clinton in '92 is very weak. First, the only contenders left against Clinton were Tsongas and Brown, and they were never that close to being competitive.  Second, the candidacy of Perot was able to take the media presence off of Clinton, allowing Clinton to get his campaign in order, and take advantage of Perot's demise during the convention. The dynamics of '92 are not at all similar to the dynamics of '08.




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LOL! Yea Jerome, if Obama's (2.00 / 1)

LOL! Yea Jerome, if Obama's position is weak, then Hillary's position must be outright abysmal.

For Pete's sake, West Virginia is voting for Clinton. It might be the only State besides Arkansas that goes for her big.

You know, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Washington, Virginia and Maryland all went big for Obama, right? heh-heh


by DaveDial on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:09:40 PM EST

Don't forget for Obama (2.00 / 1)

Georgia, North Carolina, and probably Oregon as well.


by puma on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:11:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yea, Jerome and some other posters (2.00 / 1)

Yea, Jerome and some other posters that are taking glee at the thought of Hillary winning WV and KY by large margins confound me.

Obama is the likely Democratic nominee, and what kind of Democrat refuses to get behind the nominee?

We will see what happens, but I've about had it up to here_ with some.


by DaveDial on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:15:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

do the people who polled for Clinton (none / 0)

because they want a gas 'holiday' think she has any authority to give them the tax holiday this summer?


by dearreader on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:46:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

And do they also know... (none / 0)

that it's probably the worst idea proposed by a Democrat in the entire campaign?

That most of the savings will be eaten up by the refiners?

That it's taking away from the kind of infrastructure improvements that could provide much needed jobs in WV?

That it does nothing to encourage the widespread and sweeping lifestyle changes necessary to making life on our planet sustainable in the long run?

Jerome, you're turning into a terrible, terrible joke. Hey, the Iraq war was polling well in 2002? Does that make Hillary Clinton's vote for it a good decision? Also, deporting all the brown people who are "taking 'our' jobs" seems to have a lot of support these days. When do we get to hear Clinton's plan to do that?


Never separate the life you live from the words you speak. -Sen. Paul Wellstone (Minnesota)
by Max Fletcher on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:12:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Jerome /AP is entirely wrong (2.00 / 1)

From ABC News:

"In preliminary exit poll results two in 10 whites said the race of the candidate was a factor in their vote, second only to Mississippi. Only a third of those voters said they'd support Obama against John McCain, fewer than in other primaries where the question's been asked."

So Obama only gets 1/3 of the 20% of white voters who cited "race" as a factor.

http://www.abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Po litics/story?id=4844868&page=1

NOT only gets a 1/3 of overall Clinton voters.

Jerome, this post is amazingly worse than your "preener" post.  Well done.  You hit rock bottom and started to dig.  


John McCain: Healthcare for Kids? In America? No way
by bosdcla14 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:52:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

No need for that. (none / 0)

No need to pile on Jerome, I mean, sure he's more often wrong than right, but there's a benefit to that.  Treat him like an anti-Cassandra.  Whatever he says, the opposite is more than likely to be true.


"I'm all for the delegate battle, and now that Obama's campaign is too, I'm all giddy. It's going to be the supers as kingmaker." J.Armstrong 01/19/08
by obscurant on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:21:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early Exit polling for WV (none / 0)

Yes, it's been a long time since the WV primary was competitive. And that's why it's absolutely meaningless in a predictive way that the winners of WV won the GE.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:10:01 PM EST

Re: Early Exit polling for WV (2.00 / 1)

Over 90% of voters would support free Weber grills for the summer and about 95% support weekly beer giveaways, even without any idea of where the money comes from. Must be a good idea then.


by craigk724 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:13:41 PM EST

Re: Early Exit polling for WV (none / 0)

Obama probably won't win WV, but he's going to take western states that Hillary has no chance in.


by Progressive America on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:18:59 PM EST

Hillary dropped the Gas tax (none / 0)

it didn't appear in her WV ads.


"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!
by Al Rodgers on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:19:29 PM EST

Re: Way to make her Democratic voters (none / 0)

I would say that anyone ho puts a lot of stock in polling data taken in Spring before a November election might just deserve that title....

polling data is unreliable... and while 1/3 of anyone may feel one way about something right at this moment, that might change with the passage of months.


Like the nominee, don't like the nominee... Our nominee is still better than John McCain...
by JenKinFLA on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:20:50 PM EST

Re: Way to make her Democratic voters (none / 0)

True true.


My candidate lost fair and square. So did yours. Get over it and let's kick McSame's ass!
by RLMcCauley on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:27:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early Exit polling for WV (2.00 / 1)

Exit poll results about the issue that must not be spoken of -- http://www.abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Po litics/story?id=4844868&page=1

The Race Factor
Racially motivated voting appeared to be running higher than usual: Two in 10 whites said the race of the candidate was a factor in their vote, second only to Mississippi. And only a third of those voters said they'd support Obama as the nominee against Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., fewer than in other primaries where the question has been asked.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:21:03 PM EST

Re: Early Exit polling for WV (none / 0)


"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!
by Al Rodgers on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:21:09 PM EST

Early Exit polling for WV (none / 0)

25% of the West Virginia voters were white folks over 60. Sounds like a lot of Clinton mini-mes.


by NYWoman on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:21:47 PM EST

results to date (none / 0)

The average percentage of the total vote from the 60+ age cohort in 33 completed contests from exit/entrance polls (includes only two caucus States: Iowa and Nevada) is 28%.

In these 33 contests, the average result is: Clinton- 57% and Obama- 38% (or -19%).  This result is for all races.

For 60+ age Whites only, the average result is: Clinton- 63% and Obama- 31% (or -32%).      


Our Moment Is Now
by mboehm on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:51:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early Exit polling for WV (none / 0)

I wonder what the exit polling said out of MS or WY... oh yeah, no one cared, 'cos everyone knew it would be a blowout...

CNN is living up to their billing as the Clinton News Network...  They are really trying to play it up, but WV does not represent the country as a whole any more than Washington DC would...

Barack Obama will not do well here, we know that... so what?  He'll do better in other places.  Just as Hillary didn't do well in WA... she does better here...

Yes, I do believe that Hillary could win WV in the fall... OK?  It would be nice to have them in the demo column again... but, we can't have it all, and I'm afraid that WV will just not be in our column this year... it's ok, there are plenty of other new states that will.  It is not a zero sum game.


by LordMike on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:28:52 PM EST

Re: Early Exit polling for WV (none / 0)

let them have it, in 2 weeks Obama will be the nominee of the democratic party


I would say at this point we're starting to see a little desperation on the part of the woman who I support... NY Governor Paterson
by obamaovermccain on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:55:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Your glee (none / 0)

does your candidate no favors.


by aggieric on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:59:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Your glee (none / 0)

no glee from me, I like both candidates


I would say at this point we're starting to see a little desperation on the part of the woman who I support... NY Governor Paterson
by obamaovermccain on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:02:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Then, your comments (none / 0)

aren't really showing that.


by aggieric on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:13:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early Exit polling for WV (2.00 / 1)

The most interesting statistic I found today is that no Democrat has won the White House without carrying DC  Clinton lost DC by 52 points (a significant deal more than Obama will lose WV by tonight).


by RussTC3 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:01:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early Exit polling for WV (none / 0)

No Democrat has won since 1912 without winning Minnesota.

Oh, wait, that was one that Obama won.....


by Reaper0Bot0 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:32:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early Exit polling for WV (2.00 / 1)

All of the comments from the Obama supporters who are posting such inflammatory comments about WV voters are just reinforcing the idea that you are in a fact a mob of elistist assholes.


by JustJennifer on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:28:58 PM EST

Re: Early Exit polling for WV (1.50 / 4)

If I recall correctly, there were a lot of unkind words about Mississippi residents and Virgina residents and Wyoming residents and Nebraska residents, etc...  in addition to the regular insults of being nerds, or geeks who should be swirlied, or pot smoking hippies, or trust fund kids, or lazy welfare queens... hmmm.. let me see, have I missed any slurs and insults from the Clinton supporters towards Obama supporters?

Maybe you can fill me in!  The insults go both ways...  Personally, I'm ore offended by the "latte" garbage, 'cos that's been a slur used be Republicans... to see Democrats adopt such insulting attitudes is beyond disgusting....


by LordMike on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:39:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early Exit polling for WV (1.50 / 4)

I forgot a few!  Kool Aid drinkers...  Messiah worshippers (which I find ironic, considering the hero worship that Hillary supporters have)... there must be more... I should have kept a list of all the insults thrown at Obama supporters here.


by LordMike on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:41:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early Exit polling for WV (none / 0)

No clue why anyone would troll-rate this. It is absolutely accurate.


If you're being chased by an angry bull and then you notice you're also being chased by a swarm of bees, it doesn't really change things. Just keep on running.
by vcalzone on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:16:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Elitist asshole (none / 0)

not inflammatory at all, huh?

I don't even like lattes.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:41:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Elitist asshole (none / 0)

I am sorry but saying that Obama won't be getting the incest or bestiality vote?  Whatever.  I think saying things to each other here is one thing but attacking an entire demographic of people (who aren't here to defend themselves by the way) seems like petty childish behavior.  


by JustJennifer on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:50:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

one person said that (none / 0)

do you want me to roll out the hall of fame of insults flown at states that voted for Obama?

Cause I will.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:52:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: one person said that (none / 0)

If it makes you feel better then go ahead.  I guess I should have just said "speaking for me only".  I haven't been part of the dissing of voters.  


by JustJennifer on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:01:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Be Cool (2.00 / 1)

 I understand where you're coming from, but there's no need for that kind of language.  Let's let the process play out.


by Blue Jean on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:41:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Anything to AVOID talking about the issues.. (none / 0)

it often seems like to me..

Hillary Clinton's big advantages are a strong understanding of the economy, health care, budget and finance issues, international affairs, and national security.

What is it exactly that Obama is strong in?


Universal healthcare IS a Democratic value
It's been defeated
Obama has the best $PIN that money can buy.
by architek on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:00:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early Exit polling for WV (none / 0)

Not all Obama supporteres are saying these things.

But some people are making rural America look bad.

http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/metro/c obb/stories/2008/05/13/mulligans_0514.ht ml

p.s. You can tell it's linked to Drudge when you vote in their poll.


Everybody loves the Engels.
by spacemanspiff on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:45:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early Exit polling for WV (2.00 / 1)

Lets put her on the ticket, focusing her efforts on the rust belt, while Obama sharpens his message with IND's and moderate REPUBs.  WIth her - and WJC - focusing on those 5 states, we can be in for a huge election night - 300+ electoral votes, 55% mandate ...
Team of Rivals = HUGE DEM gains in the fall
'The only people for me are the mad ones, desirous of everything at the same time, the ones who never yawn or say a commonplace thing ...'
by stryan on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:29:16 PM EST

Re: Early Exit polling for WV (none / 0)

If race is as big an issue for voters as exit polls in PA, OH and WV say it is (and those are just the ones who admit it), then Hillary's voters won't come out for her in the fall if Obama is at the top (or even the bottom) of the ticket.

The only exception will be if McCain takes Rice as VP.


by rhetoricus on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:48:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early Exit polling for WV (none / 0)

I disagree.  I am sure race is a part of the equation, but I think the WV, PA, OH vote predicated more on CLASS distinction, than RACE.  The splits you see are not based on white versus black, but folks making less than 50k per year, and those above.  
Why you see BO competing in states like CO, WI, VA, though VA DOES have a sizable AA community.
Fair or unfair, Hillary, 2008's version of Suzy Blue Collar, speaks their language.  Though I am not a fan of hers or her outdated campaign tactics, I think she can be  an asset, especially in places like WV, Western PA, Eastern OH ...
I am curious to see how BO deals, especially with OR's vote next week.  He declares victory, she does not concede, it could be an ugly couple of weeks until 6/3.
He needs to lead the party to reunification, and she needs to be a big part of that process.  
And - imagine, and I am parroting Sullivan, DEM wins, and he gives her Health Care to sherpa through Congress.  He can concentrate on healing the international issues we have burned the last 8 years.
'The only people for me are the mad ones, desirous of everything at the same time, the ones who never yawn or say a commonplace thing ...'
by stryan on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:30:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

IF only (none / 0)

If Only it was WV and Kentucky that violated the rules.

I am wholly embarrassed that this woman is a Democrat and is voting.

We need to clean these racists out of our party.

I would rather lose an election, then be affiliated in any way with Racist Americans.

I was raised in my liberal public schools to hate racism and the people who practice it.

Please look at this, this is what we have to fight against:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/13 /west-virginia-primary-igo_n_101512.html

What do you call someone who believes a lie, knowing its a lie, and they believe it not out of fear but out of choice.

Ignorant and crazy dont really fit the bill.


Unable to rec or rate

Read this: http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/5/15/1427 30/254

by GeorgeP922 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:30:35 PM EST

Re: IF only (none / 0)

I am so proud of West Viriginia.

And I bet there are a couple on site jumping up and down at the prospect of putting clowns such as this in our tent.


Unable to rec or rate

Read this: http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/5/15/1427 30/254

by GeorgeP922 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:51:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: IF only (none / 0)

This is a sad reality


I would say at this point we're starting to see a little desperation on the part of the woman who I support... NY Governor Paterson
by obamaovermccain on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:57:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: IF only (2.00 / 1)

True that. Some people just don't want to admit it exists.


Everybody loves the Engels.
by spacemanspiff on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:03:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: IF only (none / 0)

Of course I dont.

So what are we saying here, we will have to wait for all the racists to DIE off before we have can elect a president without prejudice?

The BIGGEST threat to Dems losing this year and EVERY year is Low Information voters.

How ironic would it be if the end of our Democracy started with the root of our Democracy, our voters.

Someone please tell me WV is a closed primary, please please please.


Unable to rec or rate

Read this: http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/5/15/1427 30/254

by GeorgeP922 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:12:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: IF only (none / 0)

RE: This WV Voter interviewed on TV.

It's not her age, or sex, or her looks, or her skin color, or her income, or her choice of residency, that make this woman a repugnant human being who should be shunned, and thrown out of our party.

It is her willfull ignorance.  Not stupidity, I'm sure she's "book smart" enough to get by in life.  This is ignore-ance.  Willfully ignoring facts to feed her hateful prejudices.

I stand by this.  This is not name-calling, but truth-telling.

If you didn't see the clip, she says she won't won't for Obama because he's a Muslim.  The reporter tells her that he isn't, and she says "I don't care what he says."


Peace, S.
by Reluctantpopstar on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:15:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: IF only (none / 0)

Willful ignorance, that was the word I was looking for.

How sad.


Unable to rec or rate

Read this: http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/5/15/1427 30/254

by GeorgeP922 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:41:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: IF only (none / 0)

Enought said ... is this racial, or class/educational issue?  A little bit of both, more the later than the former - dont you think?  


'The only people for me are the mad ones, desirous of everything at the same time, the ones who never yawn or say a commonplace thing ...'
by stryan on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:34:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Jerome just can't stop shilling (1.00 / 2)

If its not a negative diary about Obama then Jerome didn't just post it. Pathetically one sided shilling. Not even attempting to be even handed.


by babbitt on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:33:27 PM EST

Jerome just can't stop shilling (1.00 / 2)

If its not a negative diary about Obama then Jerome didn't just post it. Pathetically one sided shilling. Not even attempting to be even handed.


by babbitt on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:35:24 PM EST

Race (2.00 / 1)

It's true...it's a small number, but there it is;

"Racially motivated voting appeared to be running higher than usual: Two in 10 whites said the race of the candidate was a factor in their vote, second only to Mississippi. And only a third of those voters said they'd support Obama as the nominee against Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., fewer than in other primaries where the question has been asked."

http://www.abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Po litics/story?id=4844868&page=1

I'm actually shocked that even a third would still vote Obama over McCain despite having an issue with race...I take that as a good sign actually.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:40:18 PM EST

Re: Race (none / 0)

I think that number is higher, people don't tend to tell pollsters they are racists


I would say at this point we're starting to see a little desperation on the part of the woman who I support... NY Governor Paterson
by obamaovermccain on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:58:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I am sincerely curious.. (none / 0)

Have any black candidates fared well in WV recently?

Does anyone know?

If there are AA's who've done well in WV, then this is an Obama problem, and he needs to get on it.

If AA's are never competitive there, this "victory" is likely a race issue, and thus not something to gloat over. It's also an excellent argument to NOT have a split-ticket, since having a black guy at the top of the ticket (or the bottom) won't pull those same votes for Hillary in the general.


by rhetoricus on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:44:37 PM EST

Nobody knows (none / 0)

AA's haven't really run for office in West Virginia.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:46:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nobody knows (none / 0)

Remember, this is a state that Byrd had to join the KKK to get the political credibility to run for office.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:52:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I am sincerely curious.. (none / 0)

I don't think there are any black people in most of West Virginia (3% statewide), which may explain some of the ignorance on race, and the willingness to express it so openly.


by Bargeron on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:01:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I went to college (none / 0)

with a black kid from Beckley who told stories of racism in West Virginia. I don't think the whole state is like that, but the stories I heard were depressing.

My favorite line from him was "I'm glad to be in Long Island, where racism doesn't exist"

If you know Long Island, you know how unbelievably sad it must be to be black in Beckley for him to say THAT.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:05:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

A question re WV (none / 0)

OK here a question re the WV vote and I know I may be stepping on a few toes.

Is there a chance that some of the Hillary vote in WV was not so much a vote for Hillary as a vote against Obama. And if so does this mean that the state may actually be out of play for the Democrats no matter who is on the ticket?

And before anybody jumps down my throat here. A win is a win and Hillary deserves a hearty congrats for it.


Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.
by jsfox on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:52:56 PM EST

Re: Early Exit polling for WV (none / 0)

fine, then, the comparisons to Obama and McGovern are weak. It's not like Obama's gonna lose his VP because they had shock therapy, or anything.


John McCain hates terrorists, except the ones that hate women. Those are just swell.
by terra on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:53:59 PM EST

Re: Early Exit polling for WV (none / 0)

I went most of my life without knowing how racist so many west Virginians are.  It's kind of a shocker to me.  And a shame that these folks could still feel comfortable expressing it so openly.  

I know there are plenty of people, the majority even, who supported Hillary for other reasons  

But 1 in 4 said that race was a very important factor in their vote...yowza.  

I'm surprised to see my state of South Carolina ahead of the curve on the race issue, at least in the Democratic Party.  


by Bargeron on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:58:04 PM EST

True (2.00 / 1)

but I wouldn't say West Virginia is a racist state...at least no more than other states, some of which Obama won a larger share of the white vote than in West Virginia.

I would say West Virginia is not a state the modern Democratic Party plays well in. It's a traditional state that only leaned Democratic due to union voters and if Obama is to carry it in November, it would be on labor issues.

Two in ten white voters said race was an issue, but that's still only 20%. Not a big number. Eliminate that number and Clinton still wins pretty big. 55%-45% maybe. This is a state resistant to change, resistant to anything new, clinging, for lack of better word, to the late 20th Century Democratic Party centered on labor issues.

Like I said in December, there are two states that Clinton will carry in the GE and Obama won't; West Virginia and Arkansas.

There are four Obama will carry and Clinton won't; Colorado, Nevada, Wisconsin and Iowa.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:59:04 PM EST

Re: True (none / 0)

This is a great comment.  And a check to my angry comments about race.  Well-said.  


by Bargeron on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:03:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

In the end, Obama will (none / 0)

not carry Wisconsin.  Having lived here for 5 years, I'm fairly certain of that.  The AA vote in Milwaukee and the "liberal" vote in Madison are not large enough to carry the state.


by aggieric on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:08:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It was large enough (none / 0)

for Feingold to win in 1998 since that's all he won.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:13:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Geez, even Dukakis won Wisconsin! (none / 0)

Give it a rest!


by Davidsfr on Tue May 13, 2008 at 09:08:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Complex issues that Obama folk are too lazy to try (none / 0)

I think the reason the Obama campaign wants to trivialize the problems of 2/3 of America is because the issues facing them are complex issues that Obama folk are too lazy or fearful to try to understand or solve.

The reason I say fearful is because they don't bode well for the rest of America either.

Its convenient to try to sweep them under the rug and say that places like West Virgina don't adapt or are 'clinging to the past' but that ignores the ugly reality that there is a HUGE reason for that, people were surviving, even prospering in the past, and they are not now.

The core premise of democracy is that a nation tries to work out solutions that work for everybody. People like Obama like to think of themselves as superior to these issues but the fact is, they are simply TOO LAZY to try to figure them out. Perhaps they are afraid of what they might find is necessary to do, things that might be expensive or not part of their big donors agendas.


Universal healthcare IS a Democratic value
It's been defeated
Obama has the best $PIN that money can buy.
by architek on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:11:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

So you think (none / 0)

West Virginia's issues are different than Virginia's or North Carolina's or Indiana's? Why have states like Connecticut, Virginia, Vermont, Wisconsin, Utah, and Oregon connected with Obama and West Virginia hasn't?

what issues could possibly be so important that West Virginia Democrats will vote for McCain if Clinton isn't the nominee?


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:16:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Its not all about you.. (none / 0)

I wasn't talking about West Virginia in particular, I was talking about Obama's desire to avoid the hard issues like long term economic development and healthcare solutions that work for and don't bankrupt people. We supposedly are the country with some of the richest people in the world, but we can't even take charge of our future. Most of the other developed nations envy us for our diverse economy but we are throwing our future away by not educating our people and ignoring their health. Literally throwing it away. I don't see Obama doing anything to acknowledge that, instead, he is buying into a number of big lies.


Universal healthcare IS a Democratic value
It's been defeated
Obama has the best $PIN that money can buy.
by architek on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:23:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

He's isn't ignoring issues (none / 0)

you're just not paying attention. He has plans for long term economic development and healthcare solutions that work for and don't bankrupt people...mandates, btw, BANKRUPT PEOPLE.

Everytime I hear him talk, I hear him acknowledge everything you claim he doesn't acknowledge.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:42:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

He's isn't ignoring issues (none / 0)

you're just not paying attention. He has plans for long term economic development and healthcare solutions that work for and don't bankrupt people...mandates, btw, BANKRUPT PEOPLE.

Everytime I hear him talk, I hear him acknowledge everything you claim he doesn't acknowledge.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:46:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early Exit polling for WV (none / 0)

Obama will not win West Virginia.

Fossils like Lou Dobbs are grousing that nobody has won the White House without winning West Virginia since forever.  Yeah, until they do.

I remember when I was a kid, it was always New Hampshire.  "New Hampshire primary winner has won the White House since 1948."  Yeah, until that stopped happening.

If Obama wins all the states that Kerry won (and there's little reason to think that he won't, with the HUGE increases in Democratic party registration all across the country), he only needs to win one or two more states to win.

He's easily putting many addditional states into play, like Colorado, Utah, maybe even some of the states in the Deep South with large African-American populations.  

President Obama.  Get used to saying it.


Peace, S.
by Reluctantpopstar on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:02:55 PM EST

Jerome, I have a question (none / 0)

From your last paragraph, I'm assuming you mean to say that Obama is in a weaker position than Clinton was this time in 1992, and that reinforces your prediction that Obama will lose (or is less likely to win). So I'm curious, given that Obama will most likely win the nomination, will you actively work to elect him? I don't mean just voting, I mean will you focus posts on this blog on helping Obama, will you volunteer, and will you donate money? Or will you sit on your hands and say "I told you so" if he loses?

If the soon-to-be Democratic nominee is really in this much trouble, I'm hoping that a smart, motivated, creative Democrat like you would be willing to help solve some of his problems. I mean, you don't support the guy, but I'm sure you recognize the strengths he has as a candidate, not just the weaknesses. Rather than just "Obama is a weak candidate" posts, can we expect something constructive this summer?

You, Markos, and other leading bloggers are some of the best assets this party has. I'd hate to see us lose the election because otherwise smart people like you would rather make a point than win.


Walberg Watch - Following Radical Conservative Rep. Tim Walberg in MI-07
by Fitzy on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:08:57 PM EST

So, you want people to start working for him WHEN (none / 0)

they actually support the other candidate, and BEFORE he is even the Democratic nominee???


Universal healthcare IS a Democratic value
It's been defeated
Obama has the best $PIN that money can buy.
by architek on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:26:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So, you want people to start working for him W (none / 0)

... No. I'm sorry if I wasn't very clear. I thought I had conjugated most of my verbs into the future and conditional tenses, which (I think) would mean after Obama has the nomination secure. If not, I apologize.

Since there's a very, very high likelihood of Obama being the nominee, I just wanted to know if Jerome would be blogging in support of Obama this summer/fall. I have no doubt he'll support the Democratic nominee, as I would and will, but for someone with the political talent and clout that Jerome has, just voting for Obama in November won't be enough.

Basically, I wanted to know if Jerome will apply his skills to helping the party and its nominee or whether he'd sit it out as an activist and say "I told you so" if Obama loses. If he works his ass off for the nominee, as most of us will, then that's great. If he throws up his hands and says "Obama is such a poor candidate, I might as well not even try!" then I have some serious concerns.

All of it was meant for after Obama has the nomination locked up-- that is, after the last primary, after Michigan and Florida are resolved, and after enough superdelegates have publicly endorsed. I think that's enough for a reasonable person like Jerome to judge the nomination campaign to be over.


Walberg Watch - Following Radical Conservative Rep. Tim Walberg in MI-07
by Fitzy on Tue May 13, 2008 at 09:26:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama is in a much stronger position now (none / 0)

then Clinton was in 92--see my post regarding that elsewhere in this thread.

Look, in the last ABC News/WaPo poll, and that leans definitely repub, Obama is up 7 points over McCain, while a large number of Clinton supporters still say they wouldn't vote for him.

I dunno, a 7-point victory seems like plenty to me--maybe we should just tell Clinton's supporters "thanks anyway" given the attitude so many of them have expressed.


by Davidsfr on Tue May 13, 2008 at 09:18:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early Exit polling for WV (none / 0)

Race of Candidate Was...

Most Important (8%)
Clinton     Obama
85%         13%


by kyle in philly on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:08:59 PM EST

Why cant we admit (none / 0)

That both candidates have strengths and weaknesses and stop cherry picking results from our candidates strengths and act disingenuous on their weaknesses.  Can we please have an honest argument for a change?

Look, Im not happy that Obama isnt connecting well with the demographics in appalachia.  As a matter fact it worries me greatly.  And it worries me what that says about appalachia.  I want to believe its just candidate preference and not 'other' factors (yes - race), but why is Obama connecting with 'working class whites' everywhere else but appalachia?  So its not a system wide disconnect, its a specific region.  Makes me wonder and not happy.

That said, whatever.  Its a weakness and I want him to work hard to try and connect while not selling himself out on his stances (gas tax BS).

What I dont like is both campaigns ossessively pointing out the others demographic weaknesses as trump cards against the other and further cleaving these rifts.  The race is run.  WV is not going to change supers minds or change the delegate math (or the mythical popular vote).  Pointing out and pimping division at this point is detrimental to us as a whole.

Obama will be the nominee.  Obama has weaknesses he will need to address.  Clinton would be a great nominee (not my preferenece obviously) but Clinton has just as many weaknesses.  Lets not kid ourselves.

Both have paths to a win in the GE in November and both to do so will have to overcome their weaknesses (thank god the republicans are fracturing and their candidate sucks balls).

Obama will have to work hard to win over those who are uneasy with him and I hope once we are unified we can all come together and work on those weaknesses.  He will need our help.

I think he screwed up not campaigning hard in WV, while it may have made no difference, it would have been a good symbolic gesture to give WV some props and laid the groundwork for the GE.

But lets not take ONE state that has whacked demographics and try to make the case that this is the way the rest of the country is.  Is WV troubling for Obama and his supporters - absolutely, but its not a killer.

And I assure you, the overall narrative is written and it is along the lines of this post.  Obamas loss is troubling and points out a valid weakness but it is hardly a killer and does not represent the totality of the picture.  Clinton gets a big nice win on her own.  The podium hers alone tonight and this will be her last night where she can have that spotlight alone.

No candidate is ever weakness free.  All candidates in all elections have something that isnt their strength and it is disingenuous to try and trump up Obamas weaknesses as something that can not be overcome or isnt something that every politician has to face.  When has there ever been a sure thing?

So congratulations to Senator Clinton on her win in WV.  This is your night and your supporters night.  You campaigned hard in WV and deserve all the kudos.  Congratulations.


by pattonbt on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:18:28 PM EST

Have you pundits ever considered that places like. (none / 0)

Appalacia may have some COMMON SENSE that people like you LACK when it comes to DETECTING BULLSHIT WHEN THEY SEE IT?

I can draw a parallel to the IT and Internet arena during the late 90s when a plague of wild-eyed and hungry multimedia developers descended upon it, willing to do or say anything to separate people from their money. They gave the whole business a bad name because they were CROOKS. But they had the whole 'litering generalities' thing down pat, just like Obama does. Ask anyone who was there, they know what I mean.

Con artists tell people what they want to hear and bait their cons with greed.

But you can't squeeze water from a stone. Our economy is in serious trouble and people in many of the places Obama would like to write off know it FAR better than Obama's urban constituency. (who have been sheltered from a lot of it up till now, because they live in relatively well off cities..)

But they will.. and it wont be pretty, if we don't do more than funnel money to friends and supporters.

Tell me one aspect of Obama's platform that is REALLY going to revitalize the economy.


Universal healthcare IS a Democratic value
It's been defeated
Obama has the best $PIN that money can buy.
by architek on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:33:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

See (none / 0)

Its BS comments like this that are worthless to our cause.

So YOU alone hold 'the truth'?  So more than half of the voters so far who prefer the other guy are 'being conned'?

Do you not recognize complex issues, nuance, gray areas?  I guess not.

So please, give your rhetoric a rest.  You are a prime example of what my post why trying to argue against.  You provide no fact to back up your assertion and tout it as the ultimate truth and the naysayes (who by the way are a majority against your opinion) are deluded.

Maybe I could come back and make the equally jackassed post and say 'so the uneductaed white racists who support Clinton in WV are BS detectors?  Maybe the rest of with an actual education and tolerant beliefs that democrats hold dear are the BS detectors and can smell Clintons BS from a thousand miles away while the unwashed masses of appalachia couldnt detect shit coming out of their own asses'.

Nice game huh?  Grow up.


by pattonbt on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:59:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early Exit polling for WV (none / 0)

Obama wins the general election with or without West Virginia's 5 electoral votes.


by agpc on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:21:24 PM EST

how? (none / 0)

Tell me how because I can't see it.

A huge number of people, myself included don't trust him.

And of course, your (Obama supporters) only response to this will always be to tell me only that I don't or shouldn't trust McCain MORE, not answer any of my questions on HOW OBAMA WOULD SOLVE THE MANY PROBLEMS THIS COUNTRY HAS IF HE WON.

Thanks..


Universal healthcare IS a Democratic value
It's been defeated
Obama has the best $PIN that money can buy.
by architek on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:40:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Show me how Hillary wins (none / 0)

without Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Hawaii, New Hampshire, Washington and Oregon.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:59:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

With Ease (none / 0)

Even with so many Clinton supporters saying they won't vote for him now he leads McCain by 7 points in one of the most pro-republican national polls. So when at least some of those Clinton supporters come around . . .


by Davidsfr on Tue May 13, 2008 at 09:03:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early Exit polling for WV (none / 0)

I have lost all respect for this site. Knowvox clearly has a personality disorder or is just plain stupid. For one he/she is proud of their religious affiliation, and for another acts like a child by restating what is said in reverse.  The fact that jerome lets the site go like this points to his character as well, never mind his Hannity style "analysis" of events.
Please ban me and remove my account straight away... Jerome, you fucking ignorant, rascist peice of Limbough.
I saw one of your flunkies the other day say that when it is all said and done you would look like a political genius. Should not happen but if that is the case we are truly sunk.
by mwenmenm on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:22:13 PM EST

my way or the highway style thinking (none / 0)

Relevant to the "I won't vote for the other guy" thinking?

NY Times, June 23, 1992:

"Four in 10 registered voters said they were still not satisfied with the three candidates now running for the White House and wanted more choices."

NY Times link

note the date.


by joeldanwalls on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:32:48 PM EST

Damn Straight Jerome--This Time in '92 (none / 0)

Clinton was behind or even with Bush and Perot in the national polls, while Obama is 7 points ahead of McCain in one of the most repub leaning polls, ABC News/WAPO.

And of course Clinton never wasn't in a virtual tie in Virginia (having erased a double-digit lead in two days no less!) and that state has, what--twice as many EV as West Virginia? What's that, even


by Davidsfr on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:59:39 PM EST

It is bad for Obama to lose WV (none / 0)

Now why don't you use some of your energy Jerome to support the Democratic candidate for President instead of tearing him down all the time.  The one thing good thing that has come from your myopic support of Clinton is that you have street cred with those crazy Clinton supporters.  Obama has the nomination locked up. Get over it and support him you fool.


by erlin on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:45:23 PM EST

Re: Early Exit polling for WV (none / 0)

About 75% agree on supporting suspension of the gas tax

Yep, that pretty much says it.  Anybody who believes in this gas tax suspension nonsense deserved McCain as president.


John McCain the flip-flopper...
by chinapaulo on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:46:53 AM EST


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