Since when is BO the "presumptive nominee"?

Journalists are not supposed to confer the title until AFTER ALL opponents have dropped out, and NOT BEFORE. At least that's the historical usage of the term. But almost every news article nowadays is calling BO the "presumptive nominee" - while Hillary is still out campaigning!

And the MSM is not in the tank for BO??? This smells.



Display:


Since Feb. 19 (2.00 / 6)




Democratic Candidate, US Senate, Wisconsin 2012
by benmasel on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:54:55 PM EST

Re: Since Feb. 19 (2.00 / 6)

That's what I was going to say.

If anything, the press has been bending over backwards, holding fire.  We've all known it since Wisconsin.  

They conferred the same title on McCain when he had it wrapped up, but before he OFFICIALLY had it wrapped up.


by Jordache on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:10:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Since Feb. 19 (2.00 / 2)

On Wisconsin.....

Hey Ben Masel, I voted for you!


by emptythreatsfarm on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:22:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Since when? (2.00 / 4)

Since Clinton Couldn't Close the Deal in NC, that's when.


by NewOaklandDem on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:55:50 PM EST

Hillary had the lead in popular votes until a few (none / 0)

days ago.

Obama is still only ahead by something like 1% in popular votes.


Universal healthcare IS a core Democratic value
Comprehensively cover 100%, not only the healthiest 80%
by architek on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:57:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Pop Vote (2.00 / 2)

By which measure, are you including caucuses, FL, MI uncommited, etc., etc.  Sorry, I'm not buying your argument becauser there is not effective way to count popular votes in a primary.  But I also assume that you're not selling.


by NewOaklandDem on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:01:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

translating... (2.00 / 3)

If you throw out 14 states that had legitimate contests under the rules of the primary, include two states the voters were told were holding illegitimate contests - including one in which one of the two remaining candidates did not even appear on the ballot - then Clinton's in the lead! By an infinitesimal but utterly consequential amount!


by Casuist on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:08:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Except (none / 0)

Except the contest is not for votes; it's for delegates.  As Charlie Cook puts it, "many times a football team gains more yards than its opponent, yet loses on that important technicality called points scored."


by Brad G on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:30:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The media crowned Obama king a long time ago. (2.00 / 2)

At least until after the convention. Then the gloves come off.


Universal healthcare IS a core Democratic value
Comprehensively cover 100%, not only the healthiest 80%
by architek on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:56:11 PM EST

Re: The media crowned Obama king a long time ago. (2.00 / 4)

Hillary Clinton was the inevitable nominee at least up until Super Tuesday.

There was some hyperventilating after Iowa, but that died when Hillary won her AMAZING COMEBACK which was really not so amazing nor was it a comeback in New Hampshire.


by Jordache on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:14:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The media crowned Obama king a long time ago. (2.00 / 1)

I'd say it was pretty amazing. Being down by roughly 10+ points in the polls THE DAY OF and winning by 2% is pretty amazing.


"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."
by VAAlex on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:23:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The media crowned Obama king a long time ago. (none / 0)

It's indicative of a problem with the polling, not a massive comeback by Clinton.


by Lawyerish on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:31:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The media crowned Obama king a long time ago. (2.00 / 1)

And she didn't actually will anything. Both she and Obama got 8 delegates for a tie in NH.
by Gene In PA on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:07:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The media crowned Obama king a long time ago. (none / 0)

I love how when Clinton does better than expected it's a problem with the polling. When she does worse than expected it's because she is a horrible candidate. No double standard there at all!


"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."
by VAAlex on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:59:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hmmm ... (none / 0)

Except we don't nominate a candidate based on whether or not they exceed expectations; we nominate based on who gets a majority of the delegates.  Otherwise, Gary Hart, Paul Tsongas, and Mike Huckabee would have been nominees.


by Brad G on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:32:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hmmm ... (none / 0)

Of course. Did I say otherwise? I was talking about the media expectations around the event and the double standard therein.


"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."
by VAAlex on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:48:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The media crowned Obama king a long time ago. (none / 0)

And hold onto your seat for the "West Virginia Wipeout" comeback kid of the century schtick.

For the first time during a primary or caucus, I'm going to bed early tonight.


by emptythreatsfarm on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:35:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The media crowned Obama king a long time ago. (none / 0)

Obama will be crowned the Comeback Kid next week when he wins Oregon after a devastating loss in west virginia.. and he will be the presumptive nominee yet again.


by soros on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:11:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Respectfully, he will still be the presumptive (none / 0)

nominee after WVA and KY.  But maybe not, this could generate some more dollar making controversy for MSM -  The drama makes my wallet fat


Please don't associate moose with Palin, she likes to kill them.
by KLRinLA on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:17:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The media crowned Obama king a long time ago. (none / 0)

Of course, since the race will be called when polls close.


"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."
by VAAlex on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:00:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The media crowned Obama king a long time ago. (none / 0)

When you watch Hillary concede with your own eyes will you continue to deny reality?  I'm curious, because eventually she will concede.  Probably sooner than you imagine too.


Government derives its power from those that it governs.
by lockewasright on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:11:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The media crowned Obama king a long time ago. (none / 0)

If I were asked to make a guess, I'd say there's a strong possibility that Clinton will concede once there is no possibility of winning the nomination. Unfortunately for many, until the last delegate votes at the convention, there will be a possibility of Clinton winning the nomination. It's silly and mildly insulting for you to intimate that some Hillary Clinton supporters are delusional.
by zenful6219 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:44:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The media crowned Obama king a long time ago. (none / 0)

It's inumerate for you to intimate that it's not over.  I am tired of silly people holding everything back with delusional nonsense.  I already get more than my fill of moon bat crap from the religious right.

Read the news outside of this echo chamber.  Sit down with a calculator.  Listen to the radio.  Watch tv news.  Ask unbiased friends.  Go here: http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/29/d elegate.counter/index.html
and try to work it out yourself.  Go ahead.  Try.  

It IS over and it IS delusional to insist otherwise.

I'm sorry if the ole TI-85 is too much for you.  Maybe try an abacus.

You stand there and refuse to grasp it for as long as you want.  I won't pretend to have some authority to order you to see the truth.  Realists have progress to make though, so like it or not, we're gonna go ahead and be stay fact based.


Government derives its power from those that it governs.
by lockewasright on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:21:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Since when (2.00 / 1)

Get over it.
by Cheebs on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:56:13 PM EST

Since Iowa? (2.00 / 1)

Wake up! Hillary lost this thing a long time ago...


by Fairy Tale on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:56:58 PM EST

BO (none / 0)

I totally agree. How can Tim Russert be called a journalist?  He's a paid shill for Obama.


by nikkid on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:58:06 PM EST

Re: BO (2.00 / 1)

What ever happened to the HRC supporter who called for Russert to be murdered?

That was classy,  I bet you if an Obama supporter said the same they would have tossed into the Pacific Ocean with a raft and a piece of bread.


Unable to rec or rate

Read this: http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/5/15/1427 30/254

by GeorgeP922 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:01:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: BO (2.00 / 3)

They can still track him down if they want.  She was on an official campaign conference call - I'm sure she's available for any future PR work for the DLC's "muscle".


by Jordache on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:16:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: BO (2.00 / 1)

Really?  Are you serious.

I only saw it in that video, figured it was commentor on a blog,  if it was at a press conference call then this was a journalist/blogger saying this?

Wow, just wow.

Look Russert is a dork but not because he is "in the tank" for Obama.


Unable to rec or rate

Read this: http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/5/15/1427 30/254

by GeorgeP922 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:23:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Since when? (2.00 / 7)

Since he got an insurmountable lead.


NJ Hussein Independent
by NJIndependent on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:58:25 PM EST

All of a sudden? (2.00 / 5)

The media is not supposed to be beholden to a politicians agenda.

Say tommorow ALL the SD's go to Obama, and every Democrat screams for her to concede.

But,  she does not,  she keeps her campaign active.

By your logic our Media has no right to call Obama the nominee until after the convention.

Am I missing something, ?


Unable to rec or rate

Read this: http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/5/15/1427 30/254

by GeorgeP922 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:59:20 PM EST

Why must you constrain your thinking (2.00 / 1)

to logic?  Your missing out out on an entire world where anything can happen


Please don't associate moose with Palin, she likes to kill them.
by KLRinLA on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:24:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why must you constrain your thinking (2.00 / 0)

Your sig line makes me smile =)


by mnl1012 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:46:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

That quote comes from one of my favorite (2.00 / 0)

episodes.  When Michael, Jim, and Dwight go to Karen's new office dressed as cleaners, Jim gets busted in the car with a fake mustache, Dwight and Michael steal a copier...fantastic.

Oddly, many people use it for an ad hominem attack against me as a  response during a "debate", though not very effective, as it doesn't hurt my feelings, it just makes me sad for the windbags who have lost humor in times like these.


Please don't associate moose with Palin, she likes to kill them.
by KLRinLA on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:56:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

More so every day (2.00 / 7)

They crowned McCain too, before Huckabee was mathematically eliminated. They were right, and they are right now. Clinton is playing for 2nd


John McCain wants to make abortion illegal
by Lost Thought on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:59:50 PM EST

Re: More so every day (2.00 / 5)

Absolutely correct. Last I saw Ron Paul was still in the race wasn't he? And I don't believe Mike Gravel ever dropped out either, but that doesn't mean we're going to wait around for them.


John McCain supports privatizing Social Security.
by Travis Stark on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:01:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More so every day (2.00 / 1)

Technically, I think Gravel switched to Libertarian or something ;)


John McCain wants to make abortion illegal
by Lost Thought on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:03:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More so every day (none / 0)

It's a ploy.  He's waiting for the convention.  After Hillary convinces 80% of the SDs to destroy their own careers by undoing the result of the primary season because "hard workers" won't vote for Obama, he is going to pounce.  He will throw his famed Gravelmentum out there and impress those same kamikaze SDs with his argument that the same argument applies to Hillary just with a different group as the discrimination victim.  Badabing, next thing you know it's nominee Gravel by virtue of his white maleness!!

It's always heart warming to see a group of people who have been fighting the good fight against discrimination become just fine with discrimination when it serve their purpose.  

end snark


Government derives its power from those that it governs.
by lockewasright on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:24:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Right! The OP is wrong about the basic assumption (2.00 / 2)

The term "presumptive nominee" is used by the media to denote the person who has won the election. And barring something outlandish happening that destroys Obama, this election is over, the people have spoken. THe only possible way for HRC to win now is to make some kind of argument that the people were wrong, such as arguments that the election rules weren't good or that states where Obama wasn't on the ballot were fair and should count and....

And then you have to argue that the delegates should hold a private "do-over" election at the convention without all this inconvenient democracy messing up HRC's "Coronation" (since her supporters seem so fond of the word these days....)


by luckymortal on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:18:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Right! The OP is wrong about the basic assumpt (none / 0)

delegates don't have an election, they have caucus. In fact, that is what the National Convention is, a giant caucus.


by IowaMike on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:24:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Right! The OP is wrong about the basic assumpt (none / 0)

My point was semantic--that the delegates, at the convention, overturning the results of the election under its pre-established rules would be a do-over "election." My word choice was deliberate.


by luckymortal on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:46:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: (2.00 / 5)

LOL, Bill Clinton called himself the presumptive nominee in APRIL of 1992. Are you mad about that? A little outraged, maybe? Kinda indignant?


John McCain hates terrorists, except the ones that hate women. Those are just swell.
by terra on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:00:21 PM EST

Re: (2.00 / 1)

People keep forgetting to mention that the Primaries in 1992 started 1-2 months earlier than they do now,  so comparitevly Bill had taken the nomination in March had he ran in 2008.


Unable to rec or rate

Read this: http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/5/15/1427 30/254

by GeorgeP922 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:02:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: (2.00 / 1)

He still had opponents, you know, and there were still primaries after. He didn't EFFECTIVELY lock up the nomination until June, as Hillary loves to proclaim over and over.


John McCain hates terrorists, except the ones that hate women. Those are just swell.
by terra on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:06:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: (2.00 / 4)

No, the primaries started LATER in 92. The crazy front-loading into 2007 was a treat of this cycle alone.


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:18:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Since when ? (2.00 / 6)

Since the odds of him winning the nomination became so high that it's exceedingly difficult to imagine a path for Clinton to get it.

Try it yourself.  Explain how Clinton gets the nomination.  When you throw out the 3rd or 4th improbable action ("and then Michigan is seated with Obama getting 0 delegates, and then 30 Obama pledged delegates decide to switch over, and then all of the 50 remaining superdelegates endorse Clinton..."), you'll see how low the odds are.  When it's that much of a long shot for anyone other than Obama to get the nomination, he's the presumptive nominee.


Beat McCain!
by thezzyzx on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:02:52 PM EST

Re: Since when is BO the "presumptive nominee (2.00 / 4)

Since when presumptive has meant "Providing a reasonable basis for belief or acceptance" and since when Senator Obama was X-rayed and no alien parasite from the Planet Zog was found.


by My Ob on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:05:16 PM EST

shows what you know... (2.00 / 1)

Zogians are x-ray transparent. You have to label them with tritium.
by Casuist on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:11:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: shows what you know... (2.00 / 3)

Don't blame me, I voted for Kodos.


Join the Matthew 25 Network and help Democrats win the next generation of evangelicals.
by mistersite on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:27:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: shows what you know... (none / 0)

Kang is the only legitimate candidate!


Government derives its power from those that it governs.
by lockewasright on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:33:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: shows what you know... (2.00 / 1)

Abortions for some, tiny American flags for others!


Join the Matthew 25 Network and help Democrats win the next generation of evangelicals.
by mistersite on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:47:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: shows what you know... (2.00 / 2)

Oh, please!  

I'm tired of all you Kangobots coming over here, with your paid shilling for Kang!!

Get with it!  Kang CAN NOT win the purple plutarvian-miners of Darnag.  Therefore, he can NOT win in November.

Kodomentum!!


by pholkhero on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:54:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Since when is ... (2.00 / 2)

Respectfully, there comes a point where an impartial observer can clearly see that baring extraordinary circumstances a contest is over before the absolute end of the contest. A football game can effectively be over with a minute on the clock if the winning team has run up the score with multiple touchdowns and has the momentum, a baseball game can be over in the top of the ninth with a double digit score gap and a pitcher running hot, and a primary can be over with 46 of the 50 states having voted, a split decision almost certain in the few remaining contests, and the supers moving to Obama.

There are any number of things wrong with modern media, but a nominal expert summarizing the results of overall trends once they've passed the point where change is vanishingly unlikely isn't especially high on the list of problems.


by werehippy on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:06:09 PM EST

Re: Since when is ... (2.00 / 3)

my hockey team is up 3-0 in a best-of-7 playoff series. only TWO teams in history have ever  come back to win from a 3-0 deficit. Fans are already talking about the next round despite the fact we haven't fully sealed it yet. It made me think about the primary process...yes, she can come back, but it's so unlikely that to not start planning for the phase would be reckless and stupid.


John McCain hates terrorists, except the ones that hate women. Those are just swell.
by terra on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:10:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Since when is ... (2.00 / 3)

No, try different.

The team is up, 3 games to 2. There are ten minutes left. Hillary's team is down 4 goals.

Now, there could be some sort of superhuman 4-goal blitz, or Obama's entire team could go into the penalty box for something, and it'll be just goal after goal for Hillary. Or maybe the stadium might collapse. Or maybe the rules of Hockey will turn into the rules of golf, and the lower score will win.

Plausable? Maybe. Possible? No. You'd have to be a bit loony to plan around it.


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:17:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Since when is ... (2.00 / 1)

I don't think anyone is well served by making Sen. Clinton's supporters feel bad for still supporting her.

There is a case for politely and clearly rebutting them when they disagree with the likely outcome of the Democratic primary, but I think we all benefit if the emphasis is on being respectful and sympathetic. All democrats have known what the sting of a lose when you're sure you were going to win feels like and there's no need to do it to ourselves.


by werehippy on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:20:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Since when is ... (none / 0)

How can something be plausible but not possible?


"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."
by VAAlex on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:26:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Look it up at Dictionary.com (none / 0)

Then you'll see why something can be plausible but not possible


Please don't associate moose with Palin, she likes to kill them.
by KLRinLA on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:34:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Look it up at Dictionary.com (none / 0)

Um, even the writer of the comment just said he typed them in backwards. But since you're saying it's so, I ask you now: how can something be plausible but not possible?


"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."
by VAAlex on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:57:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Since when is ... (2.00 / 1)

You are right. I typed 'em in backwards.

I don't mean to make Clinton supporters feel bad, but it's so angry and bitter against Obama here, so much malevolence towards the man that it's hard not to speak up.

I forget what show it was but I recall some line (maybe the Simpsons) where they lament that the winners have to be gracious. "But what's the point of winning if the losers get all the love?"


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:37:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I think MyDD is still good to go, (2.00 / 1)

it is one of the last sites that is not either "only" pro-Obama or Pro-Hillary, where both sides can still disagree relatively respectfully.  I think it has a Hillary tilt, but not full blown.   I like Dkos a lot, but it can come down on Hillary supporters very harshly; sometimes deservedly so and sometimes not.  

At the same time, as I mentioned last night, look at (actually don't) No Quarter, Taylor Marsh, and Hillary is 44.  Now those are examples of pro-hillary blogs that make MyDD seem like a peaceful refuge for any Obama supporter.  Its also freeper heaven, where Hillary supporters are lulled and massaged into a simmering, then boiling, hate for Obama, making them easily manipulated into declaring they will vote for McCain but never Obama.  It's awful and unprogressive and I feel sorry for any dems over there that have been brainwashed by the crazies and republican operatives  


Please don't associate moose with Palin, she likes to kill them.
by KLRinLA on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:13:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I think MyDD is still good to go, (none / 0)

d.k., prior to the self-imposed exodus of Clinton supporters, is certainly no harsher on Clinton supporters than MyDD on Obama's following. Jerome is still the proprietor and a loud voice from the front page, and no day goes by in which the Rec List doesn't get peppered with anti-Obama diaries. Granted, there's a following here that similarly promotes Al's diaries, for example... but that was much the case for Hillary's supporters as well. Alegre's diaries even still made the rec list from time to time.


by Casuist on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:17:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

clarification... (none / 0)

The above is not to suggest that there's any particular value is assigning a character to the progressive blogs. They are what the community makes them, as well as the front pagers. I think DHinMI has been over the top sometimes over there and Jerome has been excessive over here... and none of that gives any everyday poster license to perpetuate the acrimony.

I made my decision based upon issues and I find it troubling that most of the criticisms Democratic candidates are receiving in the blogosphere have little to do with them. a couple months from now, the noise level of that verbal component of candidate partisans will have little traction.


by Casuist on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:22:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Since when is ... (none / 0)

All of these sports analogies fail because, in this case, there are only so many possible points left and even the loser of a primary/caucus gets points as she or he loses.  I don't know of any sport where  teams are competing for a limited number of points.

Obama only needs 33 pledged delegates to get the majority of pledged delegates and he'll get 8-10 tonight, bringing him down to 23-25 needed. And he'll certainly get that many next Tuesday.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:59:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Since when is ... (none / 0)

In the nominating contest the points, of course, are the delegates.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:00:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Since when is ... (none / 0)

And the states are periods, and the caucuses are time-outs (what... you mean THEY count too?). Voters are players, but only once, and then they have to sit in the stands and watch.


unapologetic Obama supporter
by dantes on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:17:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Since when is ... (none / 0)

Hillary's team would try to get the score ignored and petition the NHL to make the game measured by some bullshit goalie saves metric, never mind that everyone has always played for goals.


Government derives its power from those that it governs.
by lockewasright on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:41:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Great diary! Lot's of substance and work put into (2.00 / 2)

this one!

Ask Rahm.


My candidate lost fair and square. So did yours. Get over it and let's kick McSame's ass!
by RLMcCauley on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:06:10 PM EST

Obama IS the presumptive nominee (2.00 / 5)

I think you are confused.

Presumptive nominee means "presumed to be the nominee."

"Nominee" is what doesn't happen until the convention.

People who are holding on to something other than hope that Hillary will win (or, more often, that Obama will do something to lose) may have another indicator for "presumptive."

But there is no law being broken by saying "presumptive" if, as is the case with Obama, there's no reasonable chance in the current state of the race, for him NOT to be the nominee.


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:13:33 PM EST

Re: (2.00 / 4)

He is likely to be the nominee.  Ergo, he is the "presumptive nominee."  It's not a title but a quality.


by rfahey22 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:17:30 PM EST

Lead of 171 pledged delegates with 217 remaining. (2.00 / 4)

The contest for pledged delegates is effectively over.  He'll win it a week from today.

He also needs 146 delegates for the nomination (1879 right now).  Under a worst case scenario, he'll pick up 90 more pledged delegates by June 3.  Meaning he needs 56 superdelegates out of the remaining 254 for the nomination.  

Ergo, presumptive nominee.


by jimotto on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:17:44 PM EST

You're forgetting add ons for that matter... (2.00 / 1)

He'll get 25 or so for free out of the add ons, meaning he needs 21.


Beat McCain!
by thezzyzx on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:24:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You are when.... (2.00 / 3)

Since she has no chance at catching his regular delegate count. That is what makes you the "presumptive nominee."

Now all that she can hope for is that he is found in a closet with Wright, Ayers, and a little boy or dead hooker.


by IowaMike on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:31:50 PM EST

facts not in evidence (2.00 / 2)

There's zero evidence to support the core empirical claim here -- that the media have not called someone the presumptive nominee until the candidate has absolutely clinched it.  And, frankly, I think you're wrong.  I recall people calling McCain the presumptive nominee for awhile before he clinched, probably around when Romney dropped out.

Since you have, as the lawyers say, claimed facts not in evidence, your case collapses.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:31:53 PM EST

a demurrer would be granted which (2.00 / 1)

, but likely, with leave to amend.  Subsequently a Motion for Summary Judgement would be granted and the case dismissed with prejudice


Please don't associate moose with Palin, she likes to kill them.
by KLRinLA on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:42:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

And a motion for reconsideration DENIED (none / 0)

So ordered.


by JJE on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:20:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Since when? (2.00 / 1)

Since Pope Timmeh issued his papal bullshit last Tuesday night.

Otherwise, nothing at all changed.  It hasn't been about the majority of pledged delegates ever.  And there is still--or at least there was still, until the air started leaking out of the hole Pope Timmeh punched in the balloon--a significant chance that Obama will continue to bleed between now and August and that the 700 SDs, none of whom have voted and all of whom can vote at the last moment for whomever they wish, will move to the strongest candidate in significant enough numbers to give her the nomination.

But Pope Timmeh sez it is so, and it must be so.  Selah.


by Trickster on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:31:54 PM EST

Re: Since when? (none / 0)

What do you mean "bleed?"

He did better than expected in NC.
He did better than expected in IN.
He'll lose WV -- but Hillary will, at best get a 10 or 11 delegate bump from the outcome. He's already gotten twice more supers than that in the last week.
He'll lose KY, but win the night with more delegates thanks to OR.
He'll win the remainders, she'll win PR.

Where is there bleeding? All I see is a successful strategy for winning playing out as expected.


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:41:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Since when? (none / 0)

Well, as for losing support. A new poll actually shows him beating Hillary in California. Buyer's remorse, may be?


by IowaMike on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:43:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Is this a plot for a new movie? (none / 0)

Since you offered nothing to substantiate your claims, I "presume" it to be fiction


Please don't associate moose with Palin, she likes to kill them.
by KLRinLA on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:46:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Since when? (none / 0)

Another former DNC chair and James Carville just said it's over.  


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:56:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

He's been the Presumptive Nominee on MSNBC (none / 0)

.... for EVER!

They have been calling for Hillary to drop out for - how many months now?  They've been saying she can't win - for how many months now?  

Maybe they knew something we all didn't know from the start - that they were going to be "all hail Obama" and "to hell with Hillary" from the start - therefore Obama has been the Presumptive Nominee from the beginning, at least on MSNBC.  You know the channel, the one with a top pundit who got a tingle up his leg when he heard/saw Obama speak.  The other ones are not quite so blatant in their (1) endorsement of Obama and (2) detestation of Hillary Clinton.

And you know what people?  HILLARY IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR PEOPLE NOT LIKING HER!  Unless and until she can enter people's minds and hearts, it is the people themselves who are responsible for their thoughts and feelings toward her and anyone else.  And until she can stick her hand up their butts and move their mouths, she is not responsible for what others say.

I wish to hell and back that people would take responsibility for their own actions, behaviors, thoughts, feelings, and not continually blame others!  This is a universal issue - not connected to the US or any political party.  This is also another reason why you see nutcase preachers "explaining" why some dreadful tragedy occured.  People want to be able to understand and place blame ..... if they can find the victims are different in any way, others can go "Whew! I'm safe then!" in their attempt to feel merrily safe in a perilous world.  Two cent rant!

And BTW, it's damned hard to not do the same to this day.


by Southern Mouth on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:44:33 PM EST

Re: He's been the Presumptive Nominee on MSNBC (none / 0)

She IS responsible for people not liking her just like Mother Theresa was why people liked Mother Theresa and Simon from "Idol" is why people don't like Simon from "Idol"

Theresa conducted herself ... well... like a saint.

Simon's an asshole.

Hillary went all creepy and roveian.


Government derives its power from those that it governs.
by lockewasright on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:51:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

People chose to judge her actions/behavior (none / 0)

and people chose to like or dislike.  She is not responsible for their choices.

She is totally and completely responsible for her behavior and actions and feelings.

I've found it very freeing to accept that I am responsible for my own feelings and behavior, that NO ONE can change those for me.  If some asshole comes along and treats me terribly, I can choose my feelings and behavior.  The asshole had HIS/HER chance to behave on their own; I have mine.  It's a power I refuse to relinquish.

I had a person lay a loaded gun between my eyes and tell me to tell a story that he called the truth but was in fact a lie.  I did what he wanted.  Inside, at the time I was scared shitless and later, I thought to myself, "Yeah, sure the guy had SO MUCH POWER that he was able to extract a lie from the truth.  Wow, some power!  Idiot!  He got to hear "the words" he wanted to hear, but what he got was a lie.  The joke was on him."

I have been sexually assaulted; my response, my behavior, my feelings about the events are MINE.  He did not make me feel this way.  It is indeed my DNA, ME, who decides how I'm going to react.  And IF I have so chosen to steer clear of men who are oppressive in demeanor, it's not because of that person - it is my choice.  To do otherwise, and I've tried, increases the level of tension in my body to a terribly uncomfortable and disease producing place.  So, I chose to walk the other way.  I could have chosen many routes - many who have lived thru what I lived thru have chosen countless different paths.  

I find that this thinking also fits nicely with my Christian belief that in the end, before a God who sees all, who loves all, I stand accountable for my behavior.   Pointing the finger and saying, "It's not me, it's this one who MADE me do it" is not going to get it.  Being responsible and accepting that I am loved - in the midst of my failures - is what I am comfortable with.

We disagree - and that's fine with me.


by Southern Mouth on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:54:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: People chose to judge her actions/behavior (none / 0)

I agree that we own what is ours and cannot be responsible for what others own.  Any other way and your head cracks open and your brain falls out eventually, but only after the stomach acid actually opens a whole to the outside.

 I reject the idea that other people's actions don't influence whether I like them or not or mine whether they like me.  While the morality of whether or not a person likes Hillary is certainly not her responsibility but theirs her words and actions must affect what people think of her.  Otherwise there is no basis for thinking anything about anyone and I would submit that it's dangerous not to make such an assessment if your neighbor turns out to be Jeff Dahmer or John Wayne Gayce.

If I kick my neighbor in the shins every time that I see him he is not going to like me. That will be my doing.  If he choses to go back into his house and let it ruin the rest of his day, that'll be his doing.

I am sorry that you've had to  endure the horrible events that you just described.  I agree completely that the emotional choices in the aftermath are entirely yours.  I hope that you're doing well now.  I know what it is like to fear for your life.  My wife, my son, my daughter, and myself almost died on friday the 2nd of this month.  We were in a little Hyundai Accent and got broadsided at 70 mph by an 18 wheel semi truck. We were perpendicular to the grill of the truck as it pushed us about 150 feet down the freeway.  I don't want to feel as if the power to stay alive and keep my family alive is out of my hands again.  I hope that you never have too either.

I am an atheist so that's two things on which we disagree.  That's fine.  People don't have to agree with me for me to like them.  (Not that you were gonna lose sleep over it.)  Actually, I think that having only 2 areas of established disagreement with me puts you on a pretty short list.


Government derives its power from those that it governs.
by lockewasright on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:24:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Thank you for sharing - and I am happy (none / 0)

for you and your family that the semi-truck didn't destroy your lives.  

It helps to put things into perspective, doesn't it!?

If I kick my neighbor in the shins every time that I see him he is not going to like me. That will be my doing.

I am sure you are aware that there are those who would choose to not dislike you.  Many if not most will not like you AND many will avoid you.  Some may feel sympathy for a person who is doing things that are not conducive to a peaceful life and some of those will avoid you, while some may attempt to help you make better choices.  Some will dislike you and choose to take revenge.

I understand completely what you are saying as I have argued my "reactions" to another's actions vigorously.  I just like the feeling that I have some control over my feelings and responses and actions.  And I don't like to be around people who seem to always place the blame for their feelings and behavior on another.  Somehow I always ended being responsible for their feelings toward me AND responsible for my feelings toward them.  To me, I was the most "responsible" person and yet these people called me irresponsible.  I avoid these type people or refuse to discuss their rationale.  I am more at peace as a consequence.

Again - glad you are HERE!

Have a wonderful day!!!


by Southern Mouth on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:36:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Thank you for sharing - and I am happy (none / 0)

peace


Government derives its power from those that it governs.
by lockewasright on Wed May 14, 2008 at 10:48:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Either February 12 or 19 (2.00 / 4)

That's when he become the presumptive nominee in my estimation.


by reggie44pride on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:52:16 PM EST

For me it was Virginia (2.00 / 2)

I don't know about anyone else...but....I 'presumed' he was going to be our nominee when he won Virginia. That's when I first believed that he, indeed, would be our next President. I am, of course, only speaking for myself.


by Kysen on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:01:38 PM EST

What kind of vacuum have you been living in? (2.00 / 0)

The press has always picked the nominee before the race is decided.  Kerry was chosen as the nominee after Iowa.  If you recall recent history, many primary candidates never drop out, they just get swept aside as it becomes impossible for them to win the nomination.

It has certainly become the conventional wisdom that Obama is our nominee.  Which means that you're simply one of the outliers; and they have them every election cycle.  It's never easy to come to terms with a preferred candidates loss. This would be especially true during a primary season where the msm has known for months that it was a statistical impossibility for Clinton to win, but only recently allowed it to enter the CW.


by Tenafly Viper on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:11:54 PM EST

49 characters long (2.00 / 1)

Ron Paul is still technically in the GOP race too.


Tony Romo for Secretary of Awesome
by kasjogren on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:26:55 PM EST

Why are you in such a tizzy? (none / 0)

Why are so many Obama supporters in such a tizzy? Hasn't he already sealed the deal for the nomination?
by zenful6219 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:47:51 PM EST

I'll pretend like you don't know... (none / 0)

It's not that she's still running which has us in a "tizzy".  As you said the HAS sealed the deal.  It's that, in spite of this, she chooses to run as a McCain surrogate.


Government derives its power from those that it governs.
by lockewasright on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:07:36 PM EST


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