MyDD :: WV Prediction thread

WV Prediction thread

by Jerome Armstrong, Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:55:30 AM EST

I thought that Obama would be able to close the margin in West Virginia, but none of the polls think he will. Obama went along with the outlandish prediction that he'd lose 80-20-- that's one way to tell West Virginians they don't matter. Anyway, I'd better revise my thinking last month that Obama would close the gap.

I'm predicting:

Obama loses West Virginia to Clinton by a 62- 35 margin.
Obama doesn't win a single West Virginia county.
Obama doesn't visit West Virginia again before the GE.
Obama loses West Virginia to McCain 66 - 33.

Tags: west virginia (all tags)

Permalink :: 241 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: WV Prediction thread (2.00 / 1)

Bill predicted that Hillary would get 80% of the vote, a 60 point spread (80-20). Personally I think that the margin will be more like 40.

Poblamo, who nailed IN and NC, predicts a 39 margin for Clinton. Analysis here: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/w est-virginia-preview-clinton-by-39.html

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:57:44 AM EST

Re: WV Prediction thread (2.00 / 3)

I heard him make that point in person and you are totally misrepresenting what he said. You've done it repeatedly; I don't get why y'all are still doing this? Are you trying to drive away Clinton supporters?

Bill was telling people that TURNOUT IS IMPORTANT because they want to make a POPULAR VOTE ARGUMENT.

Understand now?

by mgee on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:01:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

40% = +12 delegates for Hillary. (none / 0)

Congrats to Hillary from and Obamabot on her huge victory today.

by dystopianfuturetoday on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:25:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

40% = +12 delegates for Hillary. (none / 0)

Congrats to Hillary from an Obamabot on her huge victory today.

by dystopianfuturetoday on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:25:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (2.00 / 3)

um, you've been spamming this comment since yesterday and I've asked you several times for a link, only to be ignored. Just because Obama says it don't make it so.

You all look ridiculous trying to spin a 20-something point defeat in a battleground state by the "presumptive nominee" FYI

TexasDarlin blog

by TexasDarlin on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:04:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (none / 0)

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0 508/Ninety_percent_in_WV.html#comments

John McCain wants to make abortion illegal

by Lost Thought on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:07:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (none / 0)

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/200 8/05/12/clinton-supporter-on-wv-vote-jus t-wait-%E2%80%98til-we-win-like-80-20/

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:09:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (2.00 / 1)

"Obama doesn't visit a single West Virginia County".

Well that prediction is already wrong. It was wrong when it was written.

by Jordache on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:13:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Read much (2.00 / 2)

He said visit again. Also said O doesn't win a single county.

I didn't believe in god before the primaries and I still don't.

by NewHampster on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:15:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Read much (none / 0)

Hey, I misread - it happens to everyone. Don't be abusive.

by Jordache on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:38:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Read much (2.00 / 1)

You guys amuse me.

Here is what he said:

"He said visit again. Also said O doesn't win a single county."

Now which part of that is abusive?

by Nordicus on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:00:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The subject (none / 0)

"Mom, baseball, apple pie, and a unified Democratic juggernaut."

by Purplepeople on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:39:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Awww My Apologies to (none / 0)

Jordache who should think before writing a comment but who is obviously crestfallen that I would throw some snark.

I didn't believe in god before the primaries and I still don't.

by NewHampster on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:02:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (2.00 / 2)

Thanks for finally providing the link; now I see why you didn't want to, because this is not what Bill said. The 80-20 prediction was made by Chafin but quickly downplayed by the campaign, and here is what bill said:

'Well, Hillary can get 80 percent of the vote in West Virginia', and if only 100,000 people show up it is not enough. But if 600,000 people show up, and you say, 'We want a president', then you will see the earth move.

Even "low information" voters understand what Bill was saying.

TexasDarlin blog

by TexasDarlin on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:15:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (none / 0)

Oh, ok, he only said Hillary can get 80%.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:31:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (2.00 / 2)

No. He said, even if she were to 80% it won't help if enough people don't turn out to vote.

good lord.

TexasDarlin blog

by TexasDarlin on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:41:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (none / 0)

Oh, so if she gets less than 80%, then she really can't win.

Well, Carville's figured that out, too:
I still hear some dogs barking," Carville said. "I'm for Senator Clinton, but I think the great likelihood is that Obama will be the nominee."

"As soon as I determine when that is, I'll send him a check," he added.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0 508/Carville_dogs_barking_more_faintly.h tml

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:00:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (2.00 / 1)

Come on. I heard that you said you're a grad student or something like that, right?

Bill said: even if she wins 80%, that won't be enough if you don't go vote. He was motivating people to go vote.

If you still don't get it, I can't help anymore, sorry.

Or maybe you just want to keep spinning 180 degrees until you've convinced yourself that the President said something you wanted him to say.

TexasDarlin blog

by TexasDarlin on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:09:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

it seems to me that us ignorant (2.00 / 1)

low information Appalachians might just be smarter than some of the Obamafans. Why can't they understand what Bill was saying? Is it our schools failing at reading comprehension?

For Obama it now becomes: Faith, hope and CHANGE! And the greatest of these is Change!

by TeresaInPa on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:52:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: it seems to me that us ignorant (none / 0)

Is our children learning?

by Nordicus on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:01:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: it seems to me that us ignorant (none / 0)

But, of course, a prominent Clinton supporter in WV did say

"You think this crowd's noisy?" said West Virginia Senate Majority Leader Harry Truman Chafin. "Just wait `til we win like 80-20."
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/200 8/05/12/clinton-supporter-on-wv-vote-jus t-wait-%E2%80%98til-we-win-like-80-20/

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:02:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (2.00 / 5)

Congratulations on West Virginia, Hillary people. This will be a nice night for you. Pop a bottle of ... whatever suits your fancy.

"No matter what happens, I will work for the nominee of the Democratic Party because we must win in November." -Hillary Clinton

by fugazi on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:13:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (none / 0)

The REAL WV Prediction should be:

What time will the networks call the race for Clinton?

7:31 is my guess but they might try to milk a few comercials out of it

by gil44 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:48:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I think that Bill and Obama will be correct (none / 0)

It will be 80 to 20 for Hillary. After reading that article about what West Virginians really think, I am expecting Obama to get know more than 20%.

Hillary should get pretty much all of the delegates and will give a great victory speech. Obama will not be giving a speech tonight.

by puma on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:58:05 AM EST

Re: I think that Bill and Obama will be correct (2.00 / 2)

I can't tell if you're being facetious or genuine. I'll take you at word.

So thanks for the flattering prediction!

Obama-Clinton: The New Glory of America

by Zeitgeist9000 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:59:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (2.00 / 1)

That sounds about right. But I'd bet the primary margin is closer to 70-30. The Democratic path to the White House will not go through West Virginia again for at least a few decades.

Senator Obama will be formally nominated on August 28, 2008 - the 45th Anniversary of Dr. King's "I Have A Dream Speech."

by brimur on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:58:12 AM EST

Re: WV Prediction thread (2.00 / 4)

you are wrong about that last point. Hillary will cut her trail to the WH straight through Appalachia, not to mention the great peninsula of Florida.

Did you see the EV maps at the top of myDD today?

TexasDarlin blog

by TexasDarlin on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:05:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (2.00 / 4)

So you really think she will still win this thing, huh?

by quixote27 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:10:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (2.00 / 2)

Man, when even quixote thinks you're tilting at windmills, that's bad.

by Ray Radlein on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:46:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (2.00 / 1)

well said!

by quixote27 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:51:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (1.00 / 2)

Freakin' nuts, isn't it? The cognitive dissonance is astounding and not, as I once thought, merely the province of just the rightwingers.

Hillary ought be ashamed of dragging her
fan(atics) on so long. Sheesh.

"Not only do I want an elite president, I want someone who's embarrassingly superior to me." -- Jon Stewart, 4/15/08

by JulieinVT on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:03:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (none / 0)

You should be ashamed of being what it is that you are.

by doyenne49 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:13:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (1.00 / 1)

Darlin', I've nothing to be ashamed of. Hillary, OTOH, should be, like I said. Sorry you're still on the bitter train.

"Not only do I want an elite president, I want someone who's embarrassingly superior to me." -- Jon Stewart, 4/15/08

by JulieinVT on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:17:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (2.00 / 7)

If you think winning a demo in a primary is the same thing as winning the broader form of that demo in a general I can't help you see truth. Do you realize those maps are based mostly on polls with over 10% undecided and neither candidate over 50%, and most of them within the MOE? In other words, the map is fiction, but believe what you want.

Senator Obama will be formally nominated on August 28, 2008 - the 45th Anniversary of Dr. King's "I Have A Dream Speech."

by brimur on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:10:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I know WV. (2.00 / 2)

If HRC pulls it out (look: it's now the longest of long shots, I get that), it'll be thanks to WV. And WV will go Democratic for HRC. I don't think you understand precisely how the dynamic w/r/t her candidacy has changed, but it has.

by mgee on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:43:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I know WV. (2.00 / 1)

No, I get how it's changed. It changed from being the frontrunner to the slight underdog in mid-to-late February, and she's repositioned as the know-how politician who knows how to work Washington to the scrappy populist fighter who can save the party from the "elites."

Hey, it's good positioning for her, but it's not enough to overcome a gap that just got too big, even though it didn't look like it thanks to the proportional allocation system.

by Rorgg on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:05:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (none / 0)

Yeah, that's great. A President chosen by Appalachians.

by danfromny on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:45:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (none / 0)

LOL...

"Not only do I want an elite president, I want someone who's embarrassingly superior to me." -- Jon Stewart, 4/15/08

by JulieinVT on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:05:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (none / 0)

Perhaps Appalachia can secede and Hillary can be president there.

by PSUdan on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:46:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (none / 0)

But hey, we're all American, right? Clinton's folks sounded crazy and desperate when they attacked Idaho and Utah. I'm willing to look at WV and say, "Nice win, but tell me, what's the delegate count again?"

by niksder on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:08:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (1.50 / 2)

TD -

I had offered a concession last week -
because I didn't think that Clinton could win the nomination any longer.

I still don't think she can, but I don't care any longer.
I find Obama to be disingenuous, at best, and his supporters to be petty and nasty.

The racism meme gets bandied about constantly; yet, Hillary Clinton and her supporters are repeatedly excoriated in the ugliest, sexist, and yes, racist terms.

I have been troll rated numerous times for suggesting racial overtones emanating from the Obama camp. So I am at the point of not giving a shit any more.

I don't care about the fucking Supreme Court.
I don't care about Iraq.
I don't care how bad Obama will lose.
Because I am absolutely alienated.

Thanks, all you brilliant Obama supporters.
I hope you enjoy your moral victory in November.

by johnnygunn on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:06:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (none / 0)

Wow you represent your candidate well. Just a bunch of boomers from the me, me, me generation. At least you were honest enough to admit that all you care about is your self.

"In the primary you should vote with your heart, but in the general, you should vote with your head" Bill Clinton

by venician on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:13:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (2.00 / 1)

Now you add ageism to your brew of nastiness.
"All you boomers"?

You are so full of self-righteousness and conceit.
Gawd, I am SOOOOOO impressed with your coalition building abilities.

I've got news for you, sweetheart.
All of you holier-than-thou Obama supporters will drive away voters by the droves.
I hope you enjoy your moral victory in November -
'Cause the number of Clinton supporters who will defect is growing by the day.

by johnnygunn on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:21:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (1.00 / 1)

So you say. But show me the money. Where are your facts to back up your argument. The only ones who are claiming to leave are the rabid clintonites on the blogs.

"In the primary you should vote with your heart, but in the general, you should vote with your head" Bill Clinton

by venician on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:29:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (2.00 / 1)

WTF????

Like 50% of Clinton supporters in both Indiana and NC said last week that they wouldn't vote for Obama in November.

Granted that it was an exit poll about some future event. But we are talking about future behaviour here. I would posit that these exit polls are pretty good evidence that half of Clinton supporters are not willing to consider supporting Obama right now.

And given how lovely many Obama supporters are at coalition building. I suspect the percentage may stay far too large for Obama to overcome by November.

by johnnygunn on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:42:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (none / 0)

You're very silly.

by klugstah on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:06:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (none / 0)

One day at MyDD and you troll rate me.
Why don't you read the site guidelines -
and stop brown-shirting people?

Because that's what you are doing.
SO many of you new Obama people here -
Democracy by silencing others.
What a fine form of change.

by johnnygunn on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:10:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (none / 0)

I'm not an Obama person. I didn't vote for him, and I won't in the fall. You're still very silly. :)

by klugstah on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:16:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (none / 0)

Please don't accuse Obama supporters here of silencing others - after all there are hardly any O supporters here with reccing abilities, and huge numbers have been banned while the likes of yellowdem continue spewing bile untroubled by the mods.

by interestedbystander on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:28:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (none / 0)

So being hectored online by a bunch of people and a dislike about the personality of presidential candidate is enough to make you stop caring about the defining issues of our generation? Wow.

by quixote27 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:15:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Wow! (2.00 / 1)

Honey -
They were defining issues long before you showed up on the planet.
And I suspect that they will be long after we are gone.

I know -
It seems so - what's that sixties' word? - "relevant" now -
But you'll get over it.

PS - Wow!

by johnnygunn on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:35:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wow! (none / 0)

Well thats an amazingly patronizing response.

I find it deeply ironic that you expect me to "get over it" with regards to friends dying in the war, the gov't embrace of torture, and the massive corruption of the past decade, yet at the SAME TIME, you should be allowed to pout about how mean people are on the internet and decide not to vote because of your perception of someone's character.

Sure, that makes sense.

by quixote27 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:44:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wow! (none / 0)

I'm relieved that you take it upon yourself to have all of these concerns and that I do not have to have any concern whatsoever. It is the perfect indication of the qualities that alienate so many people from Obama and his supporters.

For example:
The Clintons are racists even though they have worked all their lives for racial justice. Hillary Clinton has sleazy money and corporate connections even though Obama has admitted questionable judgement with Rezko and has close connections to Exelon among other corporate supporters. Hillary Clinton is a war monger even though Obama was never forced to go on the record with a formal legislative vote.

It's so nice to be on the moral high ground all the time - isn't it?

There's just one problem with such a perception -
Not only is it wrong, but it is deeply alienating to all those around - and a recipe for disaster in any general election.

Again, thank you for your concern so that I do not have to have any.

by johnnygunn on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:53:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wow! (none / 0)

Now you're just not making any sense. You posted initially:

"I don't care about the fucking Supreme Court.
I don't care about Iraq.
I don't care how bad Obama will lose.
Because I am absolutely alienated."

So how does your sarcastic remarks about my high horse make any sense?

by quixote27 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:03:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Did you see the EV maps? (none / 0)

Cherries lose their appeal when they're picked every day.

Hillary: "Her dishonesty is actually honest." -- yellowdem1129

by Kobi on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:15:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

LOL (none / 0)

I love your sig. It is a classic.

by sweet potato pie on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:55:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (2.00 / 3)

The GE prediction was quite passive-aggressive of you.

by rfahey22 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:58:42 AM EST

Re: WV Prediction thread (1.66 / 3)

I say go easy on these Clinton supporters. I know I'd sound just as bitter if the shoe were on the other foot. They'll come around.

Senator Obama will be formally nominated on August 28, 2008 - the 45th Anniversary of Dr. King's "I Have A Dream Speech."

by brimur on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:02:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (2.00 / 1)

Thanks for the condescension. Would you like to pat us on the head also?

Yes, I am a Clintonista for Obama.

by Denny Crane on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:20:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (2.00 / 3)

What would you like us to do? Be jerks so you can be mad at us?

by Mandoliniment on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:28:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (2.00 / 1)

Yes. That's what he wants. But I'm bored with the argument.

Senator Obama will be formally nominated on August 28, 2008 - the 45th Anniversary of Dr. King's "I Have A Dream Speech."

by brimur on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:30:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (1.50 / 2)

You Obamans really need to work on that unity thing you're all always bleating on about.

by Juno on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:50:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (2.00 / 4)

"You need to work on unity."

"I thought you were the party of hope."

"Your compliments are condescending."

"Your concerns are sexist."

"You're raising expectations too high."

"You're telling West Virginians they don't matter."

"You're telling loyal Democrats they don't matter."

You know what?

I think Obama supporters have joined Obama in there being NOTHING we can do right short of apoligizing for winning. And then stepping down for the sake of the Hillary.

I know West Virginia means a lot to you right now, just as you were all Pennsylvanians, Indianans, and Ohioans recently. There is plenty of electoral analysis that shows that Hillary's strength has been, and likely will be till the end of time, appelachia. I don't know why. But it is.

Were Obama to try and cut the lead, then it would feed the false hope that Appelachia -- West Virginia and Kentucky, at this point -- will somehow do what PA and OH and TX and all these other states you were rooting for did not do. That is, deliver the nod to Hillary.

Obama will likely end the week, if you count superdelegates, ahead of Hillary -- even counting her overwhelming oh my god fantastic WV win.

Because only 28 delegates will be allotted.

And it's not winner take all.

I'm truly sorry this sucks, but we understand there's nothing we can do to make you think we're not jerks. Just like there's nothing West Virginia or Hillary can do to make Obama not the nominee of the Democratic Party.

Fight the Smears!

by Lettuce on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:03:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (none / 0)

That comment deserves some serious mojo.

"Not only do I want an elite president, I want someone who's embarrassingly superior to me." -- Jon Stewart, 4/15/08

by JulieinVT on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:07:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (1.00 / 1)

Being nice doesn't work on a lot of you Clinton folks, being reasonable doesn't work with a lot of you, appealling to whatever policy values you share with Senator Clinton doesn't work with a lot of you.

Exactly what would you have us do in the name of unity? Ask our candidate to drop out so you supporters of Senator Clinton will be happy? I'm not sure if anything short of that will satisfy some of you.

What really sickens me about this website is how nearly everybody largely agrees on policy, but it's really down to a cult of personality, and two demographics used to be screwed over by the system are BOTH fighting over more imagined slights than real ones.

BOTH.

by Reaper0Bot0 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:08:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (none / 0)

Perhaps your problem is that you are using Obama supporters as the measure to decide if you will support OBAMA or not? Why not use the man himself? I was a Clinton supporter, am now an Obama supporter. I based my decision on understanding the delegate process and seeing she has no way to win this. I also went onto Obama's website and read up on him, and I make a point to watch any news clips with him in it. So far, I'm thrilled with my decision to support Obama.

If you die-hard Hillary supporters follow HER lead, you will note she has toned down the rhetoric on Obama. For the sake of the party, it is time for both sides to follow the tone of our leaders and TONE DOWN the rhetoric. We have a big race to win in 08. AND, WE ARE GOING TO WIN!

by citizensane on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:51:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It's also true. (none / 0)

by mgee on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:02:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (none / 0)

At least he finally admitted that the primary is over.

Lost rate and rec for issuing a '1' to a trollish comment. The troll, not so much.

by map on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:28:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

WV Prediction thread (2.00 / 4)

With all due resepct, predictions don't matter. In the past two days, Obama's new supers have eliminated any Clinton gains in West Virginia. Let's let the Senator have her day. It's not my money. If she wants a vanity campaign and people are willing to indulge her, why not.

by NYWoman on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:58:50 AM EST

Re: WV Prediction thread (2.00 / 2)

How magnanimous.

Obama-Clinton: The New Glory of America

by Zeitgeist9000 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:00:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (2.00 / 2)

"You walk into a party like you were walking onto a yacht..."

by applejackking on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:08:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (2.00 / 2)

The perfect response. I'd mojo you twice if I could.

Yes, I am a Clintonista for Obama.

by Denny Crane on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:21:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (2.00 / 6)

I guess I wouldn't have disagreed with your post if you hadn't thrown in the "states that are important" dig at Obama. I'm not sure you want to do an Obama versus Clinton rundown on who thinks what states are important.

Hooray for John McCain!

by ragekage on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:00:25 PM EST

This is the sort of shit (none / 0)

that we're supposed to take from the Clinton supporters then turn around and beg them to vote in their best interest in the GE.

by bookish on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:56:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

No matter how petulantly you tout these numbers, (2.00 / 3)

the truth is that this competition is all but over.

Obama will be our nominee no matter how well she does in West Virginia.

The longer you continue to tout these pyrrhic victories, the harder it will become for you to start the long path to relevance once Hillary concedes.

should we go outside? / should we break some bread? / are you'nterested?

by Firewall on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:01:06 PM EST

Re: No matter how petulantly you tout these number (2.00 / 3)

I get your point, but you might want to think about what a pyrrhic victory is - a victory that costs so much it's more like a defeat. If Obama wins the nomination, this still isn't a pyrrhic victory - it's simply irrelevant.

Yes, I am a Clintonista for Obama.

by Denny Crane on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:25:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No matter how petulantly you tout these number (none / 0)

Now that's class.

Pointing out a word used wrong, but doing it in a friendly way.

Dunno why that made me happy, but it did.

by Jordache on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:41:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No matter how petulantly you tout these number (none / 0)

It isn't pyrrhic? If it creates further divisions in the party, puts Clinton further in debt (and thus her supporters further in debt) and gives mccain more weeks of untouched attacks against the Democratic Party... that's not pyrrhic?

Either way, quite depressing.

Fight the Smears!

by Lettuce on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:06:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (2.00 / 3)

I think he made one of the few real mistakes of his campaign in not spending time in the state. I think he loses by a huge margin tonight, and probably deservedly so. I don't think he could have won, but this leaves a bad taste, not even showing up.

by mady on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:01:16 PM EST

Re: WV Prediction thread (2.00 / 4)

Obama has put in appearances in West Virginia. I'm not sure how the slander that he hadn't got started.

by Jordache on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:10:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (2.00 / 1)

I think he put in one, yesterday. These are people who, with some care, could be his constituency. It is really important that we do not lose the ability to be critical of "our" candidate's actions during the campaign. He screwwed up.

by mady on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:16:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Mady, we're on opposite sides (2.00 / 1)

of the primary wars, but I think you're awesome.

And right.

by mgee on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:45:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (none / 0)

He was in WV in between the PA and IN/NC primaries as well.

by Rorgg on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:10:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Wasn't he there yesterday? (2.00 / 4)

I thought he was doing events in WV yesterday... I agree, I wish he had contested it harder, but I can see the logic in it too.

Nice to see Jerome talking about Obama in the GE, even if only to say he'll lose WV.

"Mom, baseball, apple pie, and a unified Democratic juggernaut."

by Purplepeople on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:12:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wasn't he there yesterday? (2.00 / 1)

Right now it's McCain 53, Obama 35. Jerome made a great prediction! Between now and November, when the Democratic party unifies, Obama will lose 2 points in WV.

More realistically, Obama will lose WV by about 10-12.

by Terrance Manley on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:19:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (2.00 / 6)

He will lose big, but he actually made three separate trips to WV during the campaign, with multiple stops on each one.

by myddfree on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:13:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Oy, wrong. (2.00 / 1)

He was in WV in March. He made a speech in Charleston, and had a town hall in Beckley on that trip.

Then, he appeared in Charleston yesterday. He gave a speech, played some pool, and skedaddled.

by mgee on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:49:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Pay attention (none / 0)

Obama did go to WV.

She was against seating MI and FL before she was for it.

by lojasmo on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:37:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (2.00 / 3)

Al Gore won without West Virginia in 2000. Barack Obama will win without West Virginia this time...but he will win other states by enough so that the Rethugs can't steal it this time.

by gorebeatbush2 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:01:59 PM EST

Re: WV Prediction thread (2.00 / 1)

But still, what was the point of just not showing up? As an Obama supporter I am really pissed off at that.

by mady on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:04:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (2.00 / 1)

My theory is that he wanted to ease tensions, that it was better to lose an extra delegate or two but to have Clinton get an easy win (that the press is largely ignoring due to the lack of conflict), than fight hard and still have Clinton get the win.

The key in this race has been to minimize blowouts, but WV has few enough delegates that Obama could take a pass in order to try to shore up his GE chances.

by thezzyzx on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:09:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (2.00 / 1)

But it's not about delegates at this point, it would have been about showing some respect.

by mady on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:17:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (none / 0)

Well he did make three appearances there (two before PA) so it's not like he's the lead member of the I hate West Virginia club. I trust his strategy, mainly because it's been so impressive this far.

by thezzyzx on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:44:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (none / 0)

No, I know. Just bugged me.

by mady on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:47:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (none / 0)

Oh and I understand why it bugged you.

by thezzyzx on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:32:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (none / 0)

That's not a theory, it's spin. He didn't show up because he knew there was zero chance that he could avoid getting blown out. If he stays away, he can try to save face by pointing out that he didn't even try.

Yes, I am a Clintonista for Obama.

by Denny Crane on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:27:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (none / 0)

He could have reduced his margin though. It's largely that the nomination really has been wrapped up. If WV were before PA, Obama would be in there trying to pick up an extra delegate or two. Now? Clinton's WV gains will be less than Obama's SDs.

by thezzyzx on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:43:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (none / 0)

But.
He.
Did.

Fight the Smears!

by Lettuce on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:07:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (2.00 / 4)

To piggyback on your point, the implication of Jerome and other's sentiments is that political parties are somehow static entitites. Like we are dependent on winning the exact same states every cycle. The truth is that an election is a single moment in time within broader trends. West Virginia has been trending sharply Republican over the last 15 years, just as Virginia has been trending sharpy Democratic over the last 5. Understanding that real truth is the key to maintaining an electoral majority.

Senator Obama will be formally nominated on August 28, 2008 - the 45th Anniversary of Dr. King's "I Have A Dream Speech."

by brimur on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:05:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The new 50+1% strategy. (none / 0)

Same as the old 50+1% strategy.

by mgee on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:51:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The new 50+1% strategy. (none / 0)

Uh, no.

And Virginia has more voters and electoral votes than does West Virginia. If demographic shifts demand a trade, well that's a trade I can damned well live with!

by Reaper0Bot0 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:12:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The new 50+1% strategy. (none / 0)

Ha, as I'm suggesting that we EXPAND the map to Virginia, you respond that it is 50+1. Wow, is this your first election? Virginia going blue would be anything but 50+1. 50+1 is hanging all your hopes on winning 3 big states. 50+1 is not competing in those states as well as Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Missouri. Not to mention dominating the upper midwest, the northeast, and the pacific northwest.

Senator Obama will be formally nominated on August 28, 2008 - the 45th Anniversary of Dr. King's "I Have A Dream Speech."

by brimur on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:36:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The new 50+1% strategy. (none / 0)

It's not expanding if you are that willing to contract at the same time. That's my point. If you are really committed to expanding the Democratic map, you shouldn't spend so much time dismissing a state with a strong Democratic history, which is one of the poorest states in the country. Instead, you should ask yourself: how can we win there, too.

by mgee on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:54:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The new 50+1% strategy. (2.00 / 1)

That's a totally fair point.

Senator Obama will be formally nominated on August 28, 2008 - the 45th Anniversary of Dr. King's "I Have A Dream Speech."

by brimur on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:13:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Cheers (none / 0)

and thanks.

by mgee on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:19:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (none / 0)

West Virgina does not matter today and will not matter in November.

Sorry, West Virginia, but that is just the way it is.

If I had to make a prediction right now, I'd say Barack Obama is going to be the next president.

by Andre X on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:02:40 PM EST

Re: WV Prediction thread (none / 0)

Of course it matters. You don't become president of only the states you feel an affinity for. Again, am an Obama supporter and writing this off was just wrong and arrogant.

by mady on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:06:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (none / 0)

You 'don't become President' period if you waste resources on meaningless contests. Don't worry WV will be plenty of love before Nov.

The last time I checked late season Primary States always get ignored because the race has been decided.

by JoeCoaster on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:16:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (none / 0)

"Plenty of love"

I hope you are right. I love the Apalachian region. WV has such a long history of being Democratic, and I just want to see his campaign making its case there in the general now.

by mady on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:19:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (none / 0)

The Deep South had a history of voting Democratic for decades. Things changed. These things happen. Of course we should try to make West Viriginia competitive, but there ARE states that each side will not much contest because the resources spent in so doing will be well in excess of any gains.

by Reaper0Bot0 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:13:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Whoa. Obama supporters (none / 0)

excoriated Clinton when she basically didn't challenge Obama in places like Nebraska and Wyoming, and accused her of pursuing the "50 state strategy", the way Obama supposedly was.

To change the tune now is hypocritical.

by aggieric on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:28:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Whoa. Obama supporters (none / 0)

If I'm not mistaken, you wrote that long after you saw Mady saying the opposite.

What you just did - focused in on something said by an Obama supporter that you disagreed with and ignored the Obama supporter who agreed with you - is one of long-term bad effects of this primary. Everyone's so tribal.

by Jordache on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:43:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Respectfully disagree (2.00 / 2)

No, Obama supporters did not care that Clinton "basically didn't challenge Obama in places like Nebraska and Wyoming." That was her right, to set her strategy as she saw fit.

What drove Obama supporters crazy was the subsequent denial that the states were relevant because they were caucuses (or whatever arbitrary reason they came up with).

Obama supporters may argue that the WV contest is relatively meaningless because the race is decided already, which you may say is the same thing but I personally feel is more justified than retroactively declaring caucuses "undemocratic" or something.

Wield the Pen

by leaveonlyfootprints on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:44:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Respectfully disagree (none / 0)

THANK YOU.

The Obama campaign never said that a single state "didn't matter." Those were Clinton Camp. words and oddly only went to states Clinton didn't win... and in many cases never visited.

The lack of short-term memory here is amazing.

Fight the Smears!

by Lettuce on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:09:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (2.00 / 1)

Well at least the GE prediction means you've come to terms with the fact that Obama will be the nominee. Id say its prob a bit high, but he will lose it in Nov. Which isn't bad. I'd definately give up WV and FL for all the other states Obama will put into play.

by BlueGAinDC on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:03:02 PM EST

Re: WV Prediction thread (2.00 / 6)

65-35 Clinton sounds about right for WV. I agree that as Obama supporters we should step out of this fray and let Clinton enjoy this victory. There is nothing to be gained by sniping or snarking on this. The overall picture of the nomination battle will not change and next week in Oregon, Obama will have the chance to wrap this thing up and declare victory. So lets all take a deep breath, let the Clinton camp enjoy a well-deserved, if none-too-relevant, victory and then move on. WV will not be particularly significant in this GE so placing too much importance on it in the primary is energy wasted.

by wasder on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:05:19 PM EST

Re: WV Prediction thread (1.40 / 5)

Having business contacts in a large portion of the state, I can tell you that the population is overwhelming poorly educated and deeply conservative, deeply suspicious of "someone different" and, sorry to say, racist and bitter about affirmative action. It is such a sorry turn around from the glory years of the makeup of Bill Clinton's constituency when Sen. Clinton touts that she has won the approval of such folk. If this is a swan song, she is only croaking.

by cenpendem on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:07:00 PM EST

Re: WV Prediction thread (none / 0)

Excellent! Perhaps we should just eject those racist-undereducated-deeply conservative-bitter jerks from the Union.
We don't want their kind in this country anyway.

Interestingly, they certainly have a lot of Democrats in office for such deeply conservative people.

Yes, I am a Clintonista for Obama.

by Denny Crane on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:39:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (none / 0)

Yes, they do. Very conservative white elected Democrats. Nothing wrong with that either. But it is a distinction.

by Reaper0Bot0 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:15:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (none / 0)

The world is full of such people, nothing to say about making 'them' leave this Union or any other. The better approach would be to improve our education system and I don't mean the NCLB program. I take no joy in offering my observations about the folks in WV I deal with, the casual racism makes me sad. That is why I am sorry to see the way the Clinton campaign touts her success among such voters.

by cenpendem on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:28:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (none / 0)

Contempt for fellow Americans, lack of empathy for those who live in a poor state and don't have access to a good public education system in many parts of it.

I thought we were the liberals?

So fed up with this attitude.. people aren't voting Dem because something is wrong with them. That's not going to be a winning strategy..

by daria g on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:00:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (1.50 / 2)

Pretty generous, really. I thinking 70-30 at least.

I think Obama will try to hit the state again before the GE... I'm not sure, but I think Obama wants to be President of all 50 states, and he'll put in an appearance despite being sure to lose it. It's just not a swing state for him, but it doesn't mean he won't show up. He'd be showing up for 4, 8, or 12 years down the road, not for today.

by mattw on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:08:49 PM EST

Re: WV Prediction thread (none / 0)

I don't think he'll spend an hour in WV for the GE. He'll be too busy in OH, PA, and FL. Despite our "map-changing" presumptive nominee, as the media elite likes to point out, Obama will spend a lot of time and money in these three states. I haven't seen a convincing electoral map that shows an Obama win without at least one of these three swing states.

by Sieglinde on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:15:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (none / 0)

We'll see. OH is close, and he's a favorite in PA. FL isn't quite "lost cause" territory, but it isn't pretty. I think demographically he just does poorly there.

I honestly think Obama is going to open up a huge lead when our primary is over; he's been fighting a two-front battle now for months, and once our primary wraps, he can fully focus his message and energy on McCain. (It's already begun a bit, which is why I think McCain has fallen behind the Dems again in the hypotheticals)

by mattw on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:26:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Prediction thread (2.00 / 1)

Actually, I could honestly see him making sure he campaigns in all 50 states just for the talking point alone.