Bill predicted that Hillary would get 80% of the vote, a 60 point spread (80-20).  Personally I think that the margin will be more like 40.  

Poblamo, who nailed IN and NC, predicts a 39 margin for Clinton.  Analysis here: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/w est-virginia-preview-clinton-by-39.html

It will be 80 to 20 for Hillary.  After reading that article about what West Virginians really think, I am expecting Obama to get know more than 20%.

Hillary should get pretty much all of the delegates and will give a great victory speech.  Obama will not be giving a speech tonight.

That sounds about right. But I'd bet the primary margin is closer to 70-30. The Democratic path to the White House will not go through West Virginia again for at least a few decades.

The GE prediction was quite passive-aggressive of you.

With all due resepct, predictions don't matter. In the past two days, Obama's new supers have eliminated any Clinton gains in West Virginia. Let's let the Senator have her day. It's not my money. If she wants a vanity campaign and people are willing to indulge her, why not.

I guess I wouldn't have disagreed with your post if you hadn't thrown in the "states that are important" dig at Obama. I'm not sure you want to do an Obama versus Clinton rundown on who thinks what states are important.

the truth is that this competition is all but over.

Obama will be our nominee no matter how well she does in West Virginia.

The longer you continue to tout these pyrrhic victories, the harder it will become for you to start the long path to relevance once Hillary concedes.

I think he made one of the few real mistakes of his campaign in not spending time in the state.  I think he loses by a huge margin tonight, and probably deservedly so.  I don't think he could have won, but this leaves a bad taste, not even showing up.

Al Gore won without West Virginia in 2000.  Barack Obama will win without West Virginia this time...but he will win other states by enough so that the Rethugs can't steal it this time.

West Virgina does not matter today and will not matter in November.

Sorry, West Virginia, but that is just the way it is.

Well at least the GE prediction means you've come to terms with the fact that Obama will be the nominee. Id say its prob a bit high, but he will lose it in Nov. Which isn't bad. I'd definately give up WV and FL for all the other states Obama will put into play.

65-35 Clinton sounds about right for WV. I agree that as Obama supporters we should step out of this fray and let Clinton enjoy this victory. There is nothing to be gained by sniping or snarking on this. The overall picture of the nomination battle will not change and next week in Oregon, Obama will have the chance to wrap this thing up and declare victory. So lets all take a deep breath, let the Clinton camp enjoy a well-deserved, if none-too-relevant, victory and then move on. WV will not be particularly significant in this GE so placing too much importance on it in the primary is energy wasted.

Having business contacts in a large portion of the state, I can tell you that the population is overwhelming poorly educated and deeply conservative, deeply suspicious of "someone different" and, sorry to say, racist and bitter about affirmative action.  It is such a sorry turn around from the glory years of the makeup of Bill Clinton's constituency when Sen. Clinton touts that she has won the approval of such folk.  If this is a swan song, she is only croaking.

Pretty generous, really. I thinking 70-30 at least.

I think Obama will try to hit the state again before the GE... I'm not sure, but I think Obama wants to be President of all 50 states, and he'll put in an appearance despite being sure to lose it. It's just not a swing state for him, but it doesn't mean he won't show up. He'd be showing up for 4, 8, or 12 years down the road, not for today.

...in every Primary season the remaining States 'don't matter'. It's ridiculous  to call out Obama for not campaigning hard in WV. He has bigger fish to fry....it called winning the GE.

Barack Obama in Beckley, WV

I think the first two predictions are pretty likely, if the first is perhaps a bit optimistic for Obama.

The last two I doubt, because I expect to see Obama really stress a 50 state approach and visit every one at least once and because I expect McCain to really get hammered on the GI Bill he just rejected and his continuation of the Bush positions on the economy. Obama might not win the state, but it'll be closer than that.

He did show up.  "Democratic presidential hopeful, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., speaks at a town hall-style meeting in Charleston, W. Va., Monday, May 12, 2008, in anticipation of the state's primary election Tuesday."  There's a photo too if you are interested.

And his campaign definitely has maintained a presence there.  You know Clinton will win WV but not because Obama didn't show up at all.  Don't try to pretend that it is primarily for any other reason than the obvious.

The turnout will be better than average because there are a number of hot local elections. So Clinton does quite well in the popular vote, and her campaign will be bolstered. I'd like to see Obama get less than 20% (one poll had him that low), but he'll probably get 25% of the vote.

Hopefully, Clinton gets north of 70%, but the phantom Edwards sympathy vote is floating out there, and she's battling that too. It's kind of an interesting primary because it's more about tradition and less about the rhetoric of change.

So the biggest thing working in Clinton's favor is the size of the vote tonight.

How many more states will Obama write off??

The electoral college math is really bad for Obama.
I don't care what the national head-to-head polls show, the November election is 51 contests - and Obama looks weak in about 30 of them already.

Yes, Obama does better in Western states than have previous Dem candidates, but the gap is so large that better isn't good enough - except in Colorado.

Like it or not, Obama's support in the South is racially polarized - and the South has voted along racial/party lines for a generation.  Primary voting this spring suggests that such a pattern will not change.  So Obama will do no better in the South than either Gore or Kerry - who got ZERO electoral votes from the South.  Florida is definitely in Clinton's column, but a big maybe for Obama.

Then there's the Rust Belt.  If Obama is forced to defend Ohio, Penna, and Michigan where is he going to go for the essential electoral votes to get to 270?  

Writing off West Virginia is indicative of a dangerous Democratic campaign strategy.

PS - To the Obama campaign -
There are NO caucuses in the general election.

Anything less than 95% and I'll have to consider this a disappointing loss for Clinton, given that Obama has ignored the place entirely and 95% of the population is hard working white people.

WV is just another "distraction" for Obama. So be it.

The following 12 states were in the middle tier of the past four presidential elections:

West
Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico

South
Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, Tennessee

Midwest
Missouri, Ohio

East
New Hampshire, West Virginia

Bill Clinton won 11 of the 12 in 1992 and 1996.
Gore and Kerry won only one.
Can Obama win six of these if he writes off the other six?

Almost 60 comments on this post and maybe 10 of them not filled with hostilities.

I don't give a damn who you support. Show both of our candidates and their supporters their due respect for a hard-fought battle.

Battle with ideas and facts, not blind passion and reverence.

We can't keep at each other like this or we will blow our best chance of saving this country come November.

And Jerome - I have much respect for you, but as the leader of this site you set the tone and some of your posts have been so passive aggressive lately I feel it is only fueling the tensions on your site.

If either one of our candidates were to be elected, we are still WAY better off than we are with McCain. Remember that!

I am an Obama supporter, but if Hillary gets the nomination she has my vote.

The tree will fall and only Jerome will be there to hear it.

I'm going out on a shaky limb here, and being entirely too optimistic, I'm sure:

Clinton - 58, Obama - 40, mainly on the strength of college voters.

Clinton should be praised on her strong showing.

Whatever that may be.  If W.Virginians are so itching to vote against their economic interests and choose McCain.  I say screw 'em.  They deserve their poverty.

69-31 Clinton

On another note, can I have my ability to recommend back, it "went away" for no apparent reason?

WV changes nothing, much like DC or MD.  

Obama went along with the outlandish prediction that he'd lose 80-20-- that's one way to tell West Virginians they don't matter.

Obama visited WV and ran ads in KY which were probably seen there. Why does virtually every diary of yours have to include a gratuitous attack on the presumptive nominee of your party? Some people on this blog speak of reconciliation -- think about it.

And it's funny how in the past you've lauded Hillary for 'managing expectations" so well. but now that Obama is doing it you paint it in a negative light. (Talk about transparent.)

But now the burden is all on Hillary for a change. If she doesn't win by 30% it will be "proof" that voters have lost interest in her self serving campaign.

My only prediction is that turnout will be much lower than Hillary hopes (I don't say "needs" because it hardly matters to the inevitable outcome that Obama is the nominee.)

I think it will be C-60 to O-40.  Why, because I think that there will be a lot of voters wanting to go with the winner, and a lot of voters will stay home.

Where is the University of West Virginia?  I'd guess that will be his best showing if he stands any chance of carrying a single county.  When you look at maps of Ohio, Indiana, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Maryland and North Carolina and the areas each carried, yah, this should be Hillary's best contest of the entire primary season.  This is her demographic make-up, no doubt about it.

I have enormous respect for Jerome for building this site, which for many years has been amongst my daily reads.  This Spring I stopped coming daily because I grew sick and tired of all the vitriol against Obama.

There are regular posters here who make it worthwhile to visit the site regularly, but sadly, Jerome is no longer one of them.  I hope for a day when he can get over this and begin blogging meaningful stuff again.  I am so tired of the Clinton vs Obama crap.  I want to see more exposure of Republican corruption and lies, thank you.

That this story was front paged is an example of the flame-bait.

Obama loses West Virginia to Clinton by a 62- 35 margin.

Can't disagree with that.  It's likely she will win big.

Obama doesn't win a single West Virginia county.

No surprise there, of course if he does - that would be a surprise.

Obama doesn't visit West Virginia again before the GE.

Wash your mouth out with soap, he'll visit and he'll visit more than once trying to bridge the divide.  Will it be in vain?

Obama loses West Virginia to McCain 66 - 33.

While it is very likely McCain will win West Virginia, I suspect it will be by smaller margins, and may even be a close race depending on who Obama's running mate is and how many times they visit the state's voters.

The one good thing about this story is that Jerome is finally admitting that November will be between McCain and Obama.

Supposedly she's going to pull this thing off, but now she's tanking in the national Gallup and Rasmussen polls. You really need to make a more convincing case, Mrs. Clinton!

Drip, drip, drip - another 4 superdelegates have endorsed Obama. :)

If you rank the 50 states and DC from most Dem to least Dem in presidential elections, WV has been trending GOP for a sustained period now.

BTW, the Palmetto State has been trending toward the Dems.

I agree Obama will have to write off West Virginia in the general election pretty much. It's not a good state demographically for him. It's a mistake for Obama supporters to make the reason why about race. That is a big time loser in the general election. That will only push more white voters that might concider Obama to McCain. And it's funny how so many people who never visited the state before think they know the people there so well.

Hasn't Obama's campaign been about bringing people together? Some of his rogue supporters still Clinton bashing or blaming a state loss on race must have not gotten that memo.

Jerome-
One question, why include the phrase "that's one way to tell West Virginians they don't matter" in your post.  On it's face, this is a post about you/our predictions regarding WV, but by sticking in that snarky comment, you set the tone for more angry back and forth.

It is particularly frustrating, because it's not fair to either candidate.  That's like saying that HRC doesn't care about the people of Hawaii or Idaho.  

Again, I request that you chill out with your tone unless your goal is to add to the divisiveness.  If that is in fact your goal, can you just state it once and for all!?

A thirty point victory for Clinton would be amazing, given that Obama is regarded as the presumptive nominee. Generally, once a candidate becomes the presumptive nominee, he starts winning by bigger margins as voters decide that it's time to end the primary contest. Had Obama not been declared the presumptive nominee, Clinton would win West Virgina by 40 points, Kentucky by 30 points and Oregon would be a toss up state. Unfortunately, Obama gaining presumptive nominee status will probably allow him for a 20 point win in Oregon.

There is no way that the Republican will beat the Democrat by a 2 to 1 margin in West Virginia in November.  

"I thought that Obama would be able to close the margin in West Virginia."

No you didn't.

Way to stay positive.

you are delving into hack territory by editorializing the way you do.  You aren't one, but don't become like Ben Smith.

http://www.taylormarsh.com/archives_view .php?id=27665

So is the DNC and the Democratic party. If people like Donna Brazille are the voice of the party, big trouble indeed.

Obama has no trouble getting 92% of the black vote and some votes from the yuppies but that's about it. Anyone who thinks that's sufficient to win the GE is fooling themselves.

If a majority of the SDs are super wise, they'll give the nomination to Hillary. She can win a majority of votes from blue collar whites, yuppies, Hispanics, and blacks. She can win all the blue states plus most, if not all, of the swing states.

WV is the canary in the coal mine, folks. If Obama can't even begin to be competitive in a state like WV, a swing state that's 2:1 Dems, he hasn't much of a chance to win in November.

Super Delegates need to get a clue. Back Obama and you're backing failure in the fall and big trouble for other candidates down the ticket.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5 /13/122819/705/816/514797

I know it's kos, but look at the map of counties that have gone 65% for Clinton, it looks like a near overlay of Appalachia (plus Arkansas) with a few scattered here and there.

Making Virignia competetive in the last two days. You remember that state was off the table just that recently? Now he is withing a few points of Methusula there! You can't expect him to do that AND close the gap in West Virginia at the same time, now can you?

All good thoughts, but he can still win the presidency without West Virginia.

He's going to put other states in play: Florida, Colorado, Ohio, Indiana, even Texas.  Nevada and New Mexico were both barely Republican last time out.  Even the Deep South could be in play.

And I don't think he loses to McCain in West Virginia by that much.  More like 54 to 43.  W. Va. is 85% registered Democrats.

McCain will capture part of the Deep South and Appalacia, and parts of the West.  Probably 20 states.  Obama wins 30 states and wins the election.

Today's WVa primary will have zero impact on the nomination.  West Virginia is getting much more attention than such a small, impoverished (both economically and educationally) state deserves until January, when President Obama can marshall progressive forces in Congress to help West Virginians, Kentuckians, and other Appalachian people (who have largely been ignored since Bobby Kennedy's assassination) to improve their situation, in spite of themselves.

The most significant election today is being held in the first district of Missisippi, where the RNCC and its pet 527, Freedom's Watch, is associating Travis Childers with Barack Obama (the same approach that lost them the 6th district in Louisiana) and the Democrat has a great chance to win that district for the first time in decades.

That's the election I'm watching.

I agree that McCain will get around 65 percent in the general in WV.