MyDD :: WV Predictions

WV Predictions

by Tatan, Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:30:52 AM EST

I've got mine:

HRC 61
BO 38
Edwards 1

I think Hillary's tremendous poll lead will keep some of her supporters home (She doesn't need me. She's got it wrapped up). and the media narrative will keep some others home ( She doesn't need me, He's got it wrapped up). Obama's enthusiastic but relatively small number of supporters will show up for their candidate... over performing his expected number and giving him a slight bump in the final tally.

Hillary still wins by a wide margin, Obama over performs expectations... nothing changes in the race.

Let's hear yours.

Update [2008-5-13 11:53:7 by Tatan]: Just to give everyone a point of reference as to why a 20+ point loss is a relative plus to Barack Obama. As TexasDarlin helpfully pointed out last week, the last major poll in the state from ARG had Hillary up 43%. 66-23... and as we all know undecideds tend to break for Hillary 2-1. So anything less than 43% should probably be considered miraculous. But I'm generously putting the over/under at 30... and I'm predicting an improvement on that.

Poll

Votes: 20
Results : Vote Link : Polls

Tags: WV, Predictions (all tags)

Permalink :: 45 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: WV Predictions (none / 0)

Anything over 40% for Obama is good.

Obama/Warner 2008

by MissVA on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:36:29 AM EST

Re: WV Predictions (none / 0)

So you think Obama should be happy with a 20-point defeat in a battleground state while he's making the case to be the "presumptive nominee?"

Yikes, expectations game on steroids!

TexasDarlin blog

by TexasDarlin on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:36:54 AM EST

Re: WV Predictions (none / 0)

I think the expectation that yo set the other day was 43 points. So yeah 20ish is pretty good.

by Tatan on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:37:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

In case you forgot (none / 0)

Here was the title of your diary:

New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43

by Tatan on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:38:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Predictions (none / 0)

I was just reporting on a poll, don't get excited about out-performing a 40-point spread. LOL

TexasDarlin blog

by TexasDarlin on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:41:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Predictions (none / 0)

It's funny, after months of "only the big states matter" mantra from the Clinton camp, we're now hearing almost nothing save the uber-importance of WV and KY.

Tell me something: Are goalposts heavy? Ya'll have barely had an opportunity to rest before it's time to pack 'em up and move 'em all over again.

Unseen, in the background, Fate was quietly slipping the lead into the boxing glove.

by fogiv on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:58:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Predictions (none / 0)

I think 20 points will delight him to tell the truth. It's probably going to be much more of a blowout than that, and I think he made a real mistake in not campaigning in the state.

by mady on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:38:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Predictions (none / 0)

Texas... I still haven't seen your prediction.

by Tatan on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:10:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Predictions (none / 0)

i'll guess 66/32 for Clinton

by soros on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:38:59 AM EST

Re: WV Predictions (2.00 / 1)

By the way. She predicted she will win by over 90%.
So HRC has to win by that margin. Anything less and it is a loss for her.

Obama/Warner 2008

by MissVA on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:40:59 AM EST

Re: WV Predictions (none / 0)

you're funny, you make me laugh. sort of.

TexasDarlin blog

by TexasDarlin on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:42:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Predictions (none / 0)

She did? I haven't seen that.

Unseen, in the background, Fate was quietly slipping the lead into the boxing glove.

by fogiv on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:59:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Not exactly (none / 0)

Bill said he thought she'd win "80/20. Maybe 90-10."

by Rorgg on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:39:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not exactly (none / 0)

Wow. Not such a smart thing to say.

Unseen, in the background, Fate was quietly slipping the lead into the boxing glove.

by fogiv on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:42:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Predictions (none / 0)

Bill predicted that Hillary would get 80% of the vote, a 60 point spread (80-20). Personally I think that the margin will be more like 40.

Poblamo, who nailed IN and NC, predicts a 39 margin for Clinton. Analysis here: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/w est-virginia-preview-clinton-by-39.html

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:42:49 AM EST

Re: WV Predictions (none / 0)

got a linky link for bill's prediction, or just that BO said that's what he said? LOL

TexasDarlin blog

by TexasDarlin on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:45:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Predictions (none / 0)

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/200 8/05/12/clinton-supporter-on-wv-vote-jus t-wait-%e2%80%98til-we-win-like-80-20/

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:01:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Predictions (none / 0)

I completely addicted to Pablano now. I stayed up almost all night messing with his Obama v. McCain turnout spreadsheet. That thing is freakin' awesome. :)

Unseen, in the background, Fate was quietly slipping the lead into the boxing glove.

by fogiv on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:01:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Predictions (none / 0)

I'll take those results in a second.

WV will be a 1-2 day story fortunately. It'll be a good day for Clinton and her supporters should celebrate tonight.

by thezzyzx on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:43:40 AM EST

Re: WV Predictions (none / 0)

one of BO's supporters on here last night said BO was writing off the entire Appalachian region. LOL.

TexasDarlin blog

by TexasDarlin on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:46:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Predictions (none / 0)

Whoa, some random guy said something? Uncanny!

by reenactor on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:13:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Predictions (none / 0)

WV Voters don't matter to Obama and campaign. They feel that states like these are not important. The plan is to create a new map to the presidency..."change." As for the primary, it's a broker arrangement, and that's all that matters to them.

by soyousay on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:44:09 AM EST

Re: WV Predictions (none / 0)

What is "a broker arrangement"? Please explain.
Thanks. :}

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:46:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Predictions (none / 0)

Broker - Definition... One that acts as an agent for others, as in negotiating contracts, purchases. To arrange or manage.

by soyousay on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:49:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Predictions (none / 0)

And what does that have to do with how the nominating contests have played out?

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:49:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Predictions (none / 0)

Supers = Broker. Wow, do I really need to spell it out to you?

by soyousay on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:00:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Predictions (none / 0)

You said the primaries are broker arrangements. Superdelegates are not selected by primaries.

I think you meant that part of the nominating process is determined by superdelegates.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:03:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Predictions (none / 0)

Superdelegates are the party chosen few who are deciding this election (not the people.) The broker election comes into play when the superdelegates choose the nominee.

Now, what's so difficult about that? Is it or is it not the superdelegates that will make the decision in the end?

by soyousay on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:09:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Predictions (none / 0)

I am quite sincere in trying to understand your thinking and don't appreciate the tone. Perhaps you could explain to me what conceptual purchase you get from using the term broker rather than superdelegate. I was under the impression that you were trying to do more than use another term for superdelegate but were trying to make some kind of broader point. If not, I apologize for asking you about it and thereby offending you. If so, please do explain. Thanks much. ;}

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:38:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Predictions (none / 0)

Probably not. The question boils down to this essentially:

"Will the results with the superdelegates be the same as the results if there were no superdelegates?"

Given that Obama will clinch the as-is pledged delegate lead on May 20, and even if Florida and Michigan are allocated, he'd only need something like 25% in Puerto Rico to hit the new PD majority -- no. The Superdelegate vote for Obama is going to be ultimately irrelevant to the outcome.

They could have chosen as a body to reverse it, but it appears they will not.

by Rorgg on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:42:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Predictions (none / 0)

what happened to the Hope/Unity 50-State Strategy?

TexasDarlin blog

by TexasDarlin on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:46:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

He was in WV yesterday... (none / 0)

heck, he spent some time between PA and NC/IN in West Virginia. Just because you lose a state in the primary doesn't mean it's been abandoned.

by Rorgg on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:44:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Predictions (none / 0)

I haven't seen this blogged yet and I don't have time to write a full diary:

For all the hope and excitement Obama's candidacy is generating, some of his field workers, phone-bank volunteers and campaign surrogates are encountering a raw racism and hostility that have gone largely unnoticed -- and unreported -- this election season. Doors have been slammed in their faces. They've been called racially derogatory names (including the white volunteers). And they've endured malicious rants and ugly stereotyping from people who can't fathom that the senator from Illinois could become the first African American president.

The contrast between the large, adoring crowds Obama draws at public events and the gritty street-level work to win votes is stark. The candidate is largely insulated from the mean-spiritedness that some of his foot soldiers deal with away from the media spotlight.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con tent/article/2008/05/12/AR2008051203014. html?hpid=topnews

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:49:05 AM EST

Re: WV Predictions (none / 0)

I've read comments on the internet calling WV voters fat and lazy, hicks, rednecks, uneducated. Are you offended by that?

by soyousay on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:59:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Predictions (none / 0)

Some of those items are captured by empirical data which I don't have time to look up, but I'm sure anyone could if they wanted to, such as obesity rates and median level of education.

Other items on your list are characterizations which aren't bound by empirical data and so are not worth introducing into discussion, especially as the terms have negative connotations which I would not want to use in any case.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:06:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Predictions (none / 0)

I take it that was a yes.

by soyousay on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:11:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Predictions (none / 0)

Well, you shouldn't take it as a yes.

I said that some items are empirical facts. Others are just nasty labels and that I do not use those.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:38:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Predictions (none / 0)

sorry PM... i replied to you.. but it's below.

by Tatan on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:02:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'd move on as well. (none / 0)

Campaigning for Obama in WV has been a drag on many volunteers, according to chatter on MyBarack. It's an uphill climb, and they're yelling and threatening you as well in some cases. Oregon ho!

by McNasty on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:20:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Sure (2.00 / 2)

Almost everyone who is out working for the campaign sees some of this.

I remember in Scranton as I was canvasing I had two teenage boys walk past me... and one muttered to the other "they're working for the f--king n--g-r".

But on that same day, I talked to a 90 year-old white woman who was almost in tears because she was so excited that in her lifetime she would be able to vote for "a colored man that could actually win".

I was a bit striken by the "colored man" part... but she was a funny old lady.

So it works both ways.

by Tatan on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:01:36 PM EST

Re: Sure (none / 0)

Interesting - thanks.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:03:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

That's good to hear. n/t (none / 0)

by McNasty on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:20:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WV Predictions (none / 0)

I'm going with Pablano: Clinton +39

Unseen, in the background, Fate was quietly slipping the lead into the boxing glove.

by fogiv on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:02:21 PM EST

Re: WV Predictions (none / 0)

Based on Poblano's predictions -

Hillary = 12 Delegates
Obama= 6
Net Gain WV= 6 to Hillary.

Supers for the day
Obama = 4
Hillary = 0
Net gain = 4 Obama

One switched pledged delegate to Obama

This takes one away from Hillary making her net gain 5. It adds one to Obama making his net gain 5.

We end up at the end of the day with the delegate spread exactly where it was yesterday. This assumes Poblano's numbers hold and no more Supers declare today for either.

Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.

by jsfox on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:32:02 PM EST

Re: WV Predictions (none / 0)

I did this on the other thread too, out on a shaky limb:

Clinton 58, Obama 40.

As I said, Clinton should be congradulated for her victory tonight. Go Democrats! Go Childers! MS-1 is ours!

by NewOaklandDem on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:45:08 PM EST

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