The "Obama Effect" in Georgia

In what could be sobering news for the Democrats' 2006 Lt. Governor nominee, a new Insider Advantage /Majority Opinion poll conducted Sunday night shows former state Rep. Jim Martin in single digits with both former WSB-TV reporter Dale Cardwell and DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones in double digits among likely Democratic primary voters.

Democratic U.S. Senate

If the race were held today, the results would be:

Vernon Jones: 21%
Dale Cardwell: 14%
Josh Lanier: 5%
Jim Martin: 3%
Rand Knight: 1%
Undecided : 56%

Matt Towery, Chairman & CEO of Insider Advantage Georgia, says of the poll results, "[Vernon]Jones has most of the African-American vote which equals nearly 50% of the primary. He must concentrate on the 54% of African-Americans who do not know him to put him near a Democratic nomination."

2008 is a year where identity politics is running rampant with eighty-five to ninety percent of black voters backing Illinois Sen. Barack Obama in his quest for the Democratic presidential nomination.  The "Obama effect" may end up benefitting Vernon Jones as he is running in a primary dominated by voters that look like him.

Some Democrats believe that Vernon Jones as the Party's nominee for U.S. Senate against Republican Saxby Chambliss would be disastrous in November given Jones' past allegations of sexual misconduct and his calling the state Democratic Party a party of losers.

Vernon Jones and four other Democrats will compete for for their Party's nomination in the July 15th primary.  A run-off primary, if necessary, will be held on August 5th.



Display:


Tips & Recs for voting the issues... (2.00 / 1)

...Instead of voting the candidate that looks like you.

Identity politics may very well send the Georgia Democratic Party into a downspiral of defeat in the 2008 U.S. Senate race against Republican Saxby Chambliss.


by andrewalker08 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 06:54:34 AM EST

Re: Tips & Recs for voting the issues... (none / 0)

I hadn't gotten the impression that we had any strong candidates in this race.  Dale Cardwell sounds like a bit of a flake to me.

It's a shame, because very few races could galvanize nationwide Democrats like the prospect of a competitive race against Saxby Chambliss.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Mon May 12, 2008 at 11:20:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

FYI, I'm black and it annoys me... (2.00 / 2)

...When I hear black folks talking about voting for this or that candidate simply because they "support their race and what to see someone black succeed."


by andrewalker08 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 06:55:32 AM EST

it annoys me when people are stupid... (none / 0)

while i certainly agree that identity politics are the refuge of the disenfranchised throughout our history your argument has consistently been counter-intuitive: opposing barack because he is black, and telling yourself that it's because he doesn't stand with you on the issues.  it's just strange.

you seem remarkably unaware that georgia has elected black candidates for statewide office...


"I believe he can win. If he runs a campaign anywhere like the terrific campaign he ran to get the nomination, he'll win handily." - Ed Rendell
by bored now on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:02:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm more than aware that Georgia has... (2.00 / 1)

...Elected black candidates to statewide office.


by andrewalker08 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:50:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm more than aware that Georgia has... (2.00 / 1)

Obviously, then, you wouldn't have written such a flawed diary.


Hooray for John McCain!
by ragekage on Mon May 12, 2008 at 11:31:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: it annoys me when people are stupid... (none / 0)

Wait a minute...are you saying Andre opposes Obama because he's black?


Yes, I am a Clintonista for Obama.
by Denny Crane on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:54:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I Oppose Obama Because... (2.00 / 3)

...I don't think he's qualified to be President.

We're talking about a man who was just in the Illinois State Legislature a scant four years ago and now because he gives a good speech and inspires people, some folks think he's ready to be the leader of the free world.

Um...I don't think so.

Unlike the other 90% of blacks who are supporting Barack Obama because he looks like them, I'm in that 8% still supporting Sen. Clinton because my high school A.P. U.S. History teacher (who was also black) always taught me to think for myself and not to just do something because everyone is doing it.


by andrewalker08 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:06:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I Oppose Obama Because... (none / 0)

I know.  I'm also a member of the 8%.  But still don't understand what the previous poster was trying to say.


Yes, I am a Clintonista for Obama.
by Denny Crane on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:08:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

no, you oppose obama because you've... (2.00 / 1)

added a bunch of shit (for whatever reason).  assuming that you've actually had a civics course, you already know that barack is qualified to be president:

No person except a natural born citizen, or a citizen of the United States, at the time of the adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the office of President; neither shall any person be eligible to that office who shall not have attained to the age of thirty five years, and been fourteen Years a resident within the United States.

i completely missed the part in the constitution where it says something about being in the us senate for 8 years instead of 4, or having first been first lady.

you talk a good game about thinking for yourself, but i've yet to see any evidence of that.  i don't particularly care that you support hillary, but let's not pretend that you've demonstrated independent thinking here.  you recycle hillary talking points ad nauseum assuming that no one will see through them!  give me a break...


"I believe he can win. If he runs a campaign anywhere like the terrific campaign he ran to get the nomination, he'll win handily." - Ed Rendell
by bored now on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:26:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Looks like I have to specify... (2.00 / 1)

...What I mean by "qualified."

I'm not talking about the minimum qualifications required under the United States Consitution to be President.

Shoot, even I meet those requirements, but you see me running for President of the United States because even though I could, I know that I don't possess the experience nor the qualifications to do a good job in the Oval Office.

And I oppose Obama for those same reasons.  He does not have the experience nor the qualifications to do a good job in the Oval Office.


by andrewalker08 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:57:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

i agree, you're being subjective... (2.00 / 1)

and that's ok.  but trying to use a definitive "not qualified" -- which was objectively wrong -- when you obviously meant "not as qualified" for your own subjective reasons was why i jumped in.  you're wrong in your conclusions, but this is america and you have that right.  you were simply wrong when you said barack was "not qualified."  


"I believe he can win. If he runs a campaign anywhere like the terrific campaign he ran to get the nomination, he'll win handily." - Ed Rendell
by bored now on Mon May 12, 2008 at 11:59:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: i agree, you're being subjective... (none / 0)

You're being ridiculous. If someone says a person is not qualified for a particular office, everyone with a brain knows exactly what that means - your word parsing and grammar lessons aside.


Yes, I am a Clintonista for Obama.
by Denny Crane on Mon May 12, 2008 at 12:31:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: i agree, you're being subjective... (none / 0)

i seriously, seriously doubt that the diarist understood the distinction -- which is why i brought it up.  whatever conclusions you jump to based upon that need is your problem...


"I believe he can win. If he runs a campaign anywhere like the terrific campaign he ran to get the nomination, he'll win handily." - Ed Rendell
by bored now on Mon May 12, 2008 at 01:55:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I Oppose Obama Because... (none / 0)

Unlike the other 90% of blacks who are supporting Barack Obama because he looks like them

I call bullshit. Who the hell are you to impugn the motives of millions of voters just because they disagree with you?


Unable to rec or rate
Still supporting Obama
Still not putting up with "preening" posts
by jaiwithani on Mon May 12, 2008 at 08:11:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

earth to josey, earth to josey... (none / 0)

want to come back to earth?

running a "post-racial" candidacy is hardly designed to appeal to racial or identity politics.  the evidence is actually to the contrary of what you suggest.

of course, i didn't realize that oprah's appeal was to blacks.  that assertion simply blows me away, as i didn't realize that blacks had the kind of economic power to boost oprah to where she is today.  i suspect that you are wrong about this, but i have no idea.

it was black democrats, not the obama campaign, that tied the clinton campaign to using racist frames.  as i've mentioned repeatedly, black churches in the south started getting unnerved by bill clinton's (and other hillary surrogates') comments using racist frames about a year ago.  no one thought bill clinton was so naive that he didn't realize what he was doing (it also reinforced the popular conception that the clintons will do or say anything -- including something racist -- to get what they want).

that you have to blame obama for things that the clintons did (barack made bill say that shit???) demonstrates just how far we still need to go to bring about racial equality in our country.  this question should be really, really simple: is it ok for democratic candidates or their surrogates to say things (repeatedly) that offend elements of the democratic coalition?  that's a simple yes or no question, one that requires no amplification.  you clearly feel like it's ok, or that bill clinton can say or do anything he wants.  i strongly disagree.

as for your final element, you clearly don't understand what barack represents.  sure, hillary represents the old guard, archaic democrats who offer up micro-solutions to every problem.  her particular problem is that she brings with it a strong ability to coalesce the other side against her (but that's not really the point).  people like hillary haven't actually come to terms with the fact that we live in the 21st century.  we don't have small problems to address, we have complex problems and complex problems require a broad consensus.

unlike the clintons, who sought to dump their "solution" on the public in their health care plan, barack understands that reaching real solutions requires real input and participation -- real buy-in from most interested parties -- in order to enact them.  focusing on process instead of single proposals is barack's gift.  thus, it comes down to talk or action.  hillary says that she wants to solve our problems and can certainly give you a plan for doing so -- but they are plans that will never get passed.  instead of relying on the bully pulpit to force-feed hillaryvision down the throats of america, barack offers a vision for uniting to solve our problems, working together and coming up with solutions that will actually be enacted into law (and enforced through executive power).  he's demonstrated real leadership, based on real experience of how change happens in america from real world experience at the human level.  that you dismiss that as "the Black candidate" is pretty disgusting...


"I believe he can win. If he runs a campaign anywhere like the terrific campaign he ran to get the nomination, he'll win handily." - Ed Rendell
by bored now on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:56:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: earth to josey, earth to josey... (2.00 / 1)

i have no idea how to deal with this comment.  barack has done no such thing, you've merely asserted it without any supporting evidence.  the fact that people have long attached the term "post-racial" to barack's candidacy goes to great lengths to disprove that assertion.  since you have nothing to counter that, we can only assume that you prefer to see this race in those terms, without any way of understanding why...


"I believe he can win. If he runs a campaign anywhere like the terrific campaign he ran to get the nomination, he'll win handily." - Ed Rendell
by bored now on Mon May 12, 2008 at 12:03:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: yes, it annoys me too (none / 0)

Uh huh. Nice try. When this all began, more black candidates supported Clinton than Obama. But go ahead and rail against black voters, running a thin line on racism, while decrying Senator Obama's supposed divisiveness, and not her total loss of the support of Black voters through her own actions and that of her campaign.


Hooray for John McCain!
by ragekage on Mon May 12, 2008 at 11:34:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: yes, it annoys me too (2.00 / 1)

Again, as I said, you refuse to believe your candidate, her actions, her husband's, and that of her campaign hold any responsibility for this.

What did it help Obama to play the race card in places like Wisconsin or Virginia, where he won a majority of the white vote? No, it benefited Clinton to try and frame him as a black candidate, as opposed to just a candidate.

Sorry. You need this.


Hooray for John McCain!
by ragekage on Mon May 12, 2008 at 12:09:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Josey, re-read your history (none / 0)

"Jesse Jackson and Doug Wilder got the white vote." Neither of these two candidates ever won the white vote.  Wilder won enough to get elected and Jackson won a great minority.  In fact, one of the reasons that AAs were so willing to listen to Obama after January was that he demonstrated he was able to win the white in larger numbers than any other black candidate.  Or did I miss when Jacson won Iowa in 1984?  Or his crushing victory in Massachusetts in 1988?


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Mon May 12, 2008 at 12:57:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

That should be... (none / 0)

"Jackson won a small minority."


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Mon May 12, 2008 at 12:57:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Ridiculous (2.00 / 3)

Black Georgians have had many opportunities over the year to vote for black candidates. Denise Majette was a black candidate against Isakson in 2004. Was she the best candidate, or did she just win because she's black?

Blacks voting for a black candidate for President is very different from black Georgians voting for a black candidate for US Senate.

Whatever the newspaper says, this is not the "Obama effect."


by elrod on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:24:06 AM EST

Re: Ridiculous (2.00 / 2)

The problem is that Obama has projected the same image as Majette.

Vernon Jones is a sure loser. He even backed Bush in 2004 iirc.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:12:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ridiculous (2.00 / 1)

He voted for Bush in 2004 and in 2000.  And he thinks we're losers.


Yes, I am a Clintonista for Obama.
by Denny Crane on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:52:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The "Obama Effect" in Georgia (2.00 / 3)

oh come on sake you making a mound of a molehill.
This whole diary is silly.
Obama/Warner 2008
by MissVA on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:58:54 AM EST

Re: The "Obama Effect" in Georgia (none / 0)

Dude, 56% undecided. Within that 56% are sane people who won't elect someone unqualified.


If you're being chased by an angry bull and then you notice you're also being chased by a swarm of bees, it doesn't really change things. Just keep on running.
by vcalzone on Mon May 12, 2008 at 08:26:26 AM EST

Re: The "Obama Effect" in Georgia (2.00 / 2)

They nominated Majette in 2004 didn't they?


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:13:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

You know what would be stupid and offensive? (2.00 / 3)

If I implied that every female candidate who did well in polls was only doing so because of Hillary Clinton. Man, that would look bigoted, idiotic, and incredibly pathetic.


Unable to rec or rate
Still supporting Obama
Still not putting up with "preening" posts
by jaiwithani on Mon May 12, 2008 at 08:29:03 AM EST

Re: Racial Block Voting (2.00 / 1)

Well, Jones is exactly in the same position as Obama.

When the democratic party primary consists of  35%-50% African-American voters, & African-Americans decide to start voting in racial blocks of 85% to 93% margins for one black candidate, we would have many unelectable african-american nominees in state & national office.

Anyone from North Carolina who is old enough understands this well.

Black democrat Harvey Gantt went thru this routine a couple of times.

Won the dem primary due to massive racial block voting by black voters ( defeated no other than NC superstar Gov. Easley in the primary) & each time, lost to Republican Jesse Helms.

The sad thing was most NC democrats, black & white knew that Easley was a much stronger democratic candidate against Jesse Helms.

But how can you beat a 85%-90% racial voting by one group when they happen to be almost half of the primary electorate? Impossible!

This is exactly where we are with Obama today.

If Blacks voted in "normal" numbers like other races ( whites 65% Clinton vs. 35% Obama,
Latinos 68% C, 32%Obama, Asians, 77%C, 23 O-

Clinton would be the nominee today.

But how the hell can you beat a group who votes in 90%-93% levels & practices in your face Racial Block voting.

The sad part about all this is Blacks can vote in 99% Obama in November & he would still lose substantially.

In addition, it gives permission for White voters to just copy this pattern of behavior.

All you need is 70% of whites to vote for McCain in the  GE & its all over!!! Obama losses big.

When minorities play blatant racial block voting & the majority white community decides to join & push back - Its not even a contest.


by libdemusa on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:55:28 AM EST

This is really helpful. (2.00 / 2)

Oh, wait, no it isn't.

First off, he's NOT in the same position as Obama.  Obama is presumed to have won his primary against a former First Lady of the United States with enormous name recognition.

Jones is in a primary with several other state-level Democrats of nowhere near the same noteriety.

If the black voters are interested in him, then you have to look at the reasons why.  Black voters don't overwhelmingly vote for Alan Keyes, despite him being black.  So it seems that they have bigger issues than just race.

It is true that black voters do tend to be unified in support of candidates, but this is more because their communities are often tight-knit and they generally have very particular interests (poverty, civil rights, and other issues that are endemic to the black American experience).

What I don't see is why you continue to play slice-and-dice with demographics.  Why can't you say "Jones enjoys very strong support from the African American community" instead of "Look! Racial voting causes backlash!"

Our democratic process is what it is.  Jesse Helms, despite being a sleazebag, is not a pushover candidate.  Yes, there might have been racial pushback, but that's not a reason not to nominate strong candidates.  If we nominate the best person for the job, and they lose, it makes us stronger next time around when the guy elected screws up.  Would we have had a Democratic revolution in 2006 if Al Gore had won in 2000?  No.  The merits are debatable either way, but that's just how it works.

Also remember that North Carolina is not the entirety of the United States of America.  If near all-white Minnesota can elect Keith Ellison, a black muslim, to the House of Representatives, then there's hope for us all yet.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:09:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Racial Block Voting (2.00 / 1)

Yeah, because if there's one thing that's true in American politics, it's that black people have way too much power.


Unable to rec or rate
Still supporting Obama
Still not putting up with "preening" posts
by jaiwithani on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:35:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

this comment is so full of holes, i don't know... (2.00 / 2)

where to start.  your dismissal of gantt as a legitimate candidate seems bizarre as does your assumption that that easley could have held helms to 52% (let alone beaten him) at the height of the republican era.  easley still doesn't have the organization that helms had in north carolina (and i'd personally challenge your assessment of him as a "superstar").

your reduction of gantt's loss to racial or identity politics seems even more naive than the diarist (and he's pretty naive)!

you are utterly clueless about what obama is doing or has done.  your attempt to reduce obama's appeal or campaign this way is both simplistic and demonstrates a profound ignorance of american politics, the democratic primary, democrats in general and the state of elections in the 21st century.

i completely understand your dismay that democrats did not see in hillary what you did.  i'm sure that she's a better candidate than her campaign produced.  if only she could appeal to the american people (she is, after all, the only candidate in this cycle who had higher negatives than positives -- a red flag for rational observers), then she'd probably have won more states, more delegates, and been a contender.  instead, she basically needed to be on the ballot all by herself because she's been a consistent underperformer.

which has always made me wonder whether her supporters actually cared about winning the white house...


"I believe he can win. If he runs a campaign anywhere like the terrific campaign he ran to get the nomination, he'll win handily." - Ed Rendell
by bored now on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:38:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Racial Block Voting (none / 0)

Your racist friggin' filth doesn't belong on this message board. I'm sorry your candidate couldn't run a competent campaign, but there is NO excuse for your behavior. Barack Obama is a legitimate candidate, and NOT because he's black. Or perhaps the good people of Iowa, Wisconsin, Utah, North Dakota, Wyoming, Idaho, Colorado, Virginia, etc, were overwhelming black?

I think your efforts would be more helpful at Hillaryis44.org. Head on over.


Hooray for John McCain!
by ragekage on Mon May 12, 2008 at 11:49:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Alan Keyes... (2.00 / 1)

..."Black voters don't overwhelmingly vote for Alan Keyes, despite him being black."

Could that be because Alan Keyes always runs on the Republican ticket and blacks vote monolithically for the Democrats in November?


by andrewalker08 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:16:53 AM EST

That's the point (none / 0)

You and several other posters here are flat-out stating with no evidence that blacks are voting by race.  When evidence is pointed out to the contrary, you say "isn't he a Republican?"  Duh.  That's the point.  People are making decisions based on character, policies and effectiveness.  That you would reduce it solely to race demosntrates that you either look at the world only through a racial lens or you have a very low opinion of AAs.  Stop maligning people.  AAs are no less rational than you or I.


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Mon May 12, 2008 at 12:50:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The "Obama Effect" in Georgia (none / 0)

Same is happening with John Barrow in the 12th. Despite having a huge war chest, he faces a strong black challenger, State Sen. Regina Thomas, in the primary, who is clearly running to take advantage of Obama being on the ticket.

Personally I don't care, as Barrow is totally useless and votes GOP on every major issue, which Thomas wouldn't. But I offer this as more proof of the post's premise.


by Jim J on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:34:02 AM EST

Did you give your own answer to why... (none / 0)

that person is running?  Barrow is a Bush Dog Democrat.  He's not been very loyal to the party in the House and he's primaried b/c of it.  The fact that the primary candidate is black is a coincidental as the fact that the MD-04 candidate was black.  Which is to say it fits the demographics of the community.  Stop inferring stuff that is just not there.


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Mon May 12, 2008 at 01:02:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The "Obama Effect" in Georgia (none / 0)

It seems to me that racial identity politics JUST MIGHT have existed before Obama announced his candidacy for President last year.  In fact, the commenters and diarist point to Denise Majette's primary win in 2004 as an example of this type of identity politics.  Is it really fair, in light of that, to call this an "Obama effect?"  I'll give you a hint, the answer is no.


I like baked beans.
by SpideyDem on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:48:52 AM EST

Re: The "Obama Effect" in Georgia (none / 0)

I really don't like the suggestion of this dairy.  I've given money to Jones.  I really hate the idea that we ought not nominate folks because they are black.  In Texas, where I'm originally from, I feel terrible for many of my AA friends in the state house - who are amongst the most qualified and successful legislators - and cannot win a state-wide election because of their race.  Vernon is extremely qualified and has been a leader (even slightly conservative at points) for years.

http://www.vernonjonesforgeorgia.com/hom e.html


Matthew25Network.com
by cardboard 1 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 12:13:40 PM EST

Re: The "Obama Effect" in Georgia (none / 0)

Incredible.  Can you point the place in this diary where Andre said people shouldn't vote for Jones because he's black? I'm extremely tempted to TR you that blatant lie. You should be ashamed of yourself.


Yes, I am a Clintonista for Obama.
by Denny Crane on Mon May 12, 2008 at 12:37:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The "Obama Effect" in Georgia (none / 0)

I said I don't like the suggestion.  I said I don't like the circumstances.  I don't.  

Andre is right in his explanation.  I think the trouble can be overcome eventually - but am not a fan of nominating palatable white folks to win elections.


Matthew25Network.com
by cardboard 1 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 12:44:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The "Obama Effect" in Georgia (none / 0)

The race has barely even started.  Jim Martin just got in recently.  Jones and Caldwell have at least been campaigning for awhile.


by Skaje on Mon May 12, 2008 at 04:18:38 PM EST


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