Virginia is in play. We've elected a Dem. gov., we've ousted George Allen for a Dem. senator, and we're about to replace our other GOP senator with another Dem. The demographics of VA are changing. Obama can win this state.  

I was wondering whose ass the numbers for the two delegate maps were pulled from?  Seriously, I know this site is primarily pro-Hillary (probably as pro-Hillary as dKos is pro-Obama, to be fair), but these two delegate maps are laughable in their differnces.

For Obama to lose 248-290 and Hillary to win 291-247 against the same candidate implies that Hillary's supporters are far more in line with McCain's thinking than they are Obama's...if that's the case, then we really only have one democrat out of the three remaining major candidates for president.  

Anyway, if someone wouldn't mind explaining the disparity, I'd greatly appreciate it.  If it's as simple as "we need something positive to keep us going and these little maps do it," then fine, but really...

Hillary polls ahead of McCain in Florida by the same margin and
she puts that in play.

Obama polls this well in Virgina and his supporters are dreaming if they think it will go blue in the G.E.

Just check out the posts that will come after this one.

I can see the future.

A different poll out today has NC within 3. I don't remember the outfit though.

Look at the pant suit.

Ooohrah, Virginia! As a Virginian, I'm proud to say you're damn well right it's possible we'll go blue!

Some heads are going to be exploding here with this diary on the font page.  I hope we have adequate cleanup ability!!

How many pant suits does $20 million buy?

And it's worth remembering that Obama is still in a fiercely contested primary race while McCain has been running in the clear for months. I'm all smiles thinking about the bump we'll be looking at once the democratic primary is over.

what the hell, the Survey USA poll has both Hillary AND Obama getting blown out in Virginia, as does electoral-vote.com and McCain is over 50 percent in that state. no chance for either one. the state is too white and has not voted Dem since 1964.

Virginia is an incredibly complex state.  I've seen it compared to NC often here at MyDD.  I don't think it's a useful comparison.  While there are largely 'Southern' and 'Appalachian' regions, the two largest metropolitan areas in VA are entirely unique...

(1) Hampton Roads is built around the world's largest collection of military installations. Norfolk is home to several (four I believe) aircraft carrier battle groups while Virginia Beach is a Master Jet Base for the US Navy.  A sizeable portion of this military population moves in and out of the state every few years form other parts of the country / world.

(2) Northern Virginia has one of the wealthiest and most educated populations in the country and is built on top of a micro-economy powered almost entirely by Federal spending.

Add on top of this the relatively large black population in urban centers such as Richmond and Norfolk / Portsmouth.  

Add on top of this a couple of the nation's most powerful evangelical centers like Regent and Liberty Universities (Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson's respective empires).

What you end up with is a really complex electorate.  Democrats have been winning the big state-wide prizes for the last few years.  IMHO this can be attributed to two factors: an increasing number of Democrats in Fairfax county and the horrible job Jim Gilmore did as Gov.  I don't believe that the eventual 'blue-ing' of VA is by any means inevitable.

Some trends to look out for:  if military families vote against the war in a measurable way, Obama could win VA big.  If the narrative going into the fall is about McCain's hare-brained economic schemes I also believe Obama could win VA.  Conversely, if the narrative going into the fall is all about Obama denying over and over again that he is some sort of terrorist sympathiser, it could get ugly for Obama.  Mark Warner occupies a unique place in state politics and his being on the ballot may help Obama, although it wouldn't surprise me at all to see a large number of people vote for McCain and Warner.

Personally, I don't think winning Virginia would decide the race for Obama.  If Obama wins VA it will mean he is winning everywhere.  

Virginia is trending blue due to Bush incompetence and has elected an African-American Governor, I would say that those two facts indicate that Obama has a shot at it.

So how is Hillary poling against McCain there?

And what's the story in Ohio and Florida?

If Obama wins VA it will mean he is winning everywhere.  

That'll work...

I'll believe it when I see it.

What short memories everyone has when there were polls in 2004 showing Kerry close in VA and I remember the results coming in and Virginia looked close at first and then - wham - Kerry lost it handily.

Oh boy...

If Obama's not traveling to VA regularly and spending there like mad, it will clue us in to what the internals are showing.

I don't think Virginia is ready to go blue on a presidential level yet.  

As a Virginian, and a veteran of Webb's 2006 campaign,

I advise the Obamamaniacs from out of state to not count their chickens too fast.

Our latte-liberal Governor, Tim Kaine, a member of Obama's national campaign, is probably about as popular in this Commonwealth right now, largely for his ignorant support of "abusive driver fees" as a Utopian panacea for road funding, as Governor Dunmore was in the old days.

Just sayin', and laughing a bit as I type.

That Virginia is off the table because some other poll taken two months ago with a large MOE showed Obama down by double digits. Really Jonathan, why taunt us like this?

Trust me, Obama can win Virginia. We are starting to lean democratic, and with the population burst in Northern Virginia, the state is very much in play for Obama.