MyDD :: SUSA Oregon: Already Voted

SUSA Oregon: Already Voted - BHO 49 / HRC 48

by njsketch, Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:32:02 PM EST

Obama leads overall 54-43, but according to SUSA, among the 43% who already voted, Obama only leads 49-48.

Oregon Women Move To Obama in Final Week Before Primary: In a Democratic Primary in Oregon today, 05/12/08, 8 days until votes are counted, Barack Obama defeats Hillary Clinton 54% to 43%, according to a SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted for KATU-TV Portland. Though the results are only slightly more in favor of Obama than SurveyUSA's most recent track point, released 11 days ago, before results of North Carolina and Indiana were known, there is movement in Oregon among women. 5 weeks ago, Clinton led by 7 among Oregon women. Today, Obama leads by 7. See the interactive tracking graph here. Among voters younger than Obama, Obama leads by 24 points. Among voters older than Republican John McCain, Clinton leads, but just barely, and by a lot less than she had. See the interactive tracking graph here. 4 in 10 of likely voters have already returned a ballot. Among the actual voters, Clinton and Obama tie. Obama's advantage comes entirely from the 6 in 10 likely voters who tell SurveyUSA they will return their ballot before 8 pm on Primary Day, but have not yet done so. All voting in Oregon is by U.S. mail. Ballots may be returned until 8 pm on 05/20/08.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=94e9005d-d8d6-46e2-b09a-697a4e 23a900

Tags: primary, SUSA, Oregon, Clinton, Obama (all tags)

Permalink :: 29 Comments :: Post a Comment

BO 49 / HRC 48 (2.00 / 1)

they release the count before it's over? Wow, states do things their own way.

Hillary - alternative energy

by anna shane on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:34:30 PM EST

Re: BO 49 / HRC 48 (2.00 / 1)

That's remarkable.

I proudly support Barack Obama for President!

by Zeitgeist9000 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:36:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: BO 49 / HRC 48 (none / 0)

The results are from SurveyUSA polling.

by emptythreatsfarm on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:37:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

which also got the NC (none / 0)

early voting off.

The margin of error on that number is probably higher than the whole poll due to the fact that the sample is smaller.

Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!

by Student Guy on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:41:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: BO 49 / HRC 48 (none / 0)

Which, I believe, did the worst job in polling last week's races.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:41:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: BO 49 / HRC 48 (none / 0)

Where did you get the idea that Oregon already released results before it's over? Also where did the BO 49/HRC 48 come from. Those figures did not come from the polling results. In fact the figure today showing Obama severely beating HRC included polling 615 people who already filled out their votes and these are all included in the poll showing Obama beating HRC in high double digit figures.

The conclusion BO 49/HRC 48 is a total lie! Why does that not surprise me.

by ajleiker on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:59:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: BO 49 / HRC 48 (2.00 / 1)

Did you even read the poll? It found that, among those who have already voted, it's 49% Obama, 48% Clinton.

by markjay on Mon May 12, 2008 at 11:30:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA Oregon: Already Voted - BHO 49 / HRC 48 (2.00 / 1)

Interesting...

Might be closer than I thought, but we said that for NC.

by Jaz on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:37:56 PM EST

Re: SUSA Oregon: Already Voted - BHO 49 / HRC 48 (none / 0)

Wait this is a SUSA polling not the offical votes right?

I would say at this point we're starting to see a little desperation on the part of the woman who I support... NY Governor Paterson

by obamaovermccain on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:41:18 PM EST

Yeah nt. (none / 0)

Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!

by Student Guy on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:41:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA Oregon: Already Voted - BHO 49 / HRC 48 (none / 0)

Yep - Just a poll.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:42:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA Oregon: Already Voted - BHO 49 / HRC 48 (none / 0)

Which says among women. 5 weeks ago, Clinton led by 7 among Oregon women. Today, Obama leads by 7.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:43:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

click on the link - SUSA has him up by +14 (none / 0)

There actual and likely tab reports:

Obama 57 Clinton 43

I like SUSA, but they had Clinton winning Indiana by 12 pts and a tie in NC. Needless to say, the opposite happened.

"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!

by Al Rodgers on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:45:08 PM EST

Re: SUSA Oregon: Already Voted (2.00 / 1)

In our county only 11% ballots have been returned. They never report the actual numbers before the official count on the final day of the primary -- so the SUSA figures of votes already cast must be from their own polling.

by Susan in Oregon on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:53:09 PM EST

Re: SUSA Oregon: Already Voted - BHO 49 / HRC 48 (2.00 / 1)

I can't wait till how the Obamalites will react when Hillary comes close and/or wins

"there is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured by what is right in America"-William Jefferson Clinton, forty-second President of the United States

by DiamondJay on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:54:31 PM EST

I would congratulate her (2.00 / 1)

for finding an issue that worked in Oregon to her advantage as it is theoretically Obama turf (just like PA was Clinton turf and NC was obama turf.

Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!

by Student Guy on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:57:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA Oregon: Already Voted - BHO 49 / HRC 48 (none / 0)

And what, pray tell, is going to cause that to happen?

Proudly joining the legions of people and states that don't matter on May 20th.

by Obama Independent on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:59:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA Oregon: Already Voted - BHO 49 / HRC 48 (none / 0)

I read the same sort of thing just a week ago about NC and IN.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:00:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA Oregon: Already Voted - BHO 49 / HRC 48 (none / 0)

Really? Because it won't be very exciting, and it's pretty easy to predict. They'll say something like, "We're still 200 delegates ahead. Is she going to quit now? .... How about now? ... Now?"

It's about as predictable as what was going to happen when Hillary lost NC in a landslide and barely squeaked out a win in Indiana. "Obama can't win X demographic! Pay attention supers!" and "Victory in Indiana, on to West Virginia, Kentucky, and the White House!"

This primary race has jumped the shark.

by mattw on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:12:18 PM EST
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Re: SUSA Oregon: Already Voted - BHO 49 / HRC 48 (none / 0)

I would go outside with a rather sturdy umbrella and marvel at the flying pigs.

Government derives its power from those that it governs.

by lockewasright on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:40:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA Oregon: Already Voted - BHO 49 / HRC 48 (2.00 / 1)

SurveyUSA? They blew North Carolina & Indiana.

by mecarr on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:04:51 PM EST

Re: SUSA Oregon: Already Voted - BHO 49 / HRC 48 (none / 0)

I think they're still the most accurate pollster this cycle. They just completely screwed the pooch with their AA turnout number in their model, which was skewed low because AA turnout in PA was lower than Kerry's AA number.

by mattw on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:16:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Tracking polls w00t! (none / 0)

Tracking polls are like stem cells-- they can be transmogrified into just about anything you want.

There's nearly always something in 'em to laugh or cry about.

You haven't seen impatient until you've seen a monkey waiting for a donut.

by bjones on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:23:12 PM EST

Re: SUSA Oregon: Already Voted - BHO 49 / HRC 48 (none / 0)

I live in Oregon, trust me...Obama will win here by 10+

Hillary's people are dreaming if they think it will be closer than that...just like they were in North Carolina.

by gorebeatbush2 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 11:02:10 PM EST

Re: SUSA Oregon: Already Voted - BHO 49 / HRC 48 (2.00 / 1)

I fully expect Obama to win Oregon by double digits. But, if by some long shot, Hillary pulled off a victory there, together with huge wins in West Virginia and North Carolina, and an expected win in Puerto Rico, that could be very interesting.

by markjay on Mon May 12, 2008 at 11:33:09 PM EST

Re: SUSA Oregon: Already Voted - BHO 49 / HRC 48 (none / 0)

NC already voted and she lost by 14 pts

by BDM on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:51:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA Oregon: Already Voted - BHO 49 / HRC 48 (none / 0)

Sorry, you must be using one of those old Obama calendars. You should get that replaced.

John McCain

by Mandoliniment on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:26:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA Oregon: Already Voted - BHO 49 / HRC 48 (none / 0)

Another high info Clinton supporter.

Government derives its power from those that it governs.

by lockewasright on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:42:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]