BREAKING: Obama 51 - McSame 44 (UPDATE video)

HOT OFF THE PRESSES: Brand New ABC News/Washington Post Poll.

Obama  51% - McSame  44% (+7)

Clinton  46% - McSame  43% (+3) (Hill below 50 percent)

DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION

Obama  53% - Clinton  41% (+12) (the gas tax was a winner - HA!)

OUCH!

(PDF) http://www.abcnews.go.com/...

► Alpha Dawg  

► Whatta Ham!  A behind the back shot.  Whatta Show-off!  

► Total Dude Appeal  

► A Man's Man  

► Da ESPN Candidate!  

► The Guy Next Door

► Hey!  Wannna see his wheels?  I knew you would.  Check it out his 757!  Nice paint!

► Wooooo Weeeee - Dem Force One

► Go Speed Racer! Go Speed Racer! Go Speed Racer! GO!  

► "The Empire Strikes Barack!" - it's from the makers of "Baracky"



Display:


Re: BREAKING: Obama 51 - McSame 44 (2.00 / 3)

Would rec but for some reason I can't. Good news.


Unable to rec or rate Still supporting Obama
by astoria gooner on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:23:18 PM EST

Re: BREAKING: Obama 51 - McSame 44 (2.00 / 2)

That happened to me once. Try changing your password; I think that fixed it. (I wish I could remember for sure; the problem had some obscure solution. Apparently a site bug.)


by mattw on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:28:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: BREAKING: Obama 51 - McSame 44 (none / 0)

Hmmm. If you believe that, you believe anything. It's a way of manipulating the rec IMHO


Pointing to the inadequacies of John McCain
by duende on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:18:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: BREAKING: Obama 51 - McSame 44 (none / 0)

Yes, because we all know computer technology never fails us.

The blue screen is there to eat my thoughts and send them to Steve Balmer.

Andy Bechtolsheim told me that.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Tue May 13, 2008 at 09:06:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: BREAKING: Obama 51 - McSame 44 (none / 0)

If that's snark, it's slightly lost on this Brit.

But I do know exactly when my reccing and mojoing privileges disappeared, and it wasn't a random software glitch.

But hey - I'm not BITTER. Still enjoying the video above


Pointing to the inadequacies of John McCain
by duende on Tue May 13, 2008 at 09:44:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: BREAKING: Obama 51 - McSame 44 (none / 0)

Well I can't see the video (my workplace blocks most video streaming sites) But the pictures certainly do him justice.

I actually thought you were snarking so I joined in. I've never had any troubles with the rating systems. I only rate up the people who make wonkish comments that are backed up by research and only rate down the people that call other people names. I only recommend diaries that have nothing to do with supporting one candidate over the other.

Rah-rah-rah-in in favor for a candidate leaves me cold nowadays. Wether pro or anti, Obama or clinton, If it's about the candidates only the biggest crap ends up there. So I tend to avoid the rec list like the plague.

And those little guidelines made sure I've never had any problems at all with rec'ing dairies or mojo-ing people.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:22:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: BREAKING: Obama 51 - McSame 44 (none / 0)

Mine disappeared soon after I begun posting. It was weird, since I have been TRed very very rarely.


If you are not voting Obama, please let me know so I can replace your sorry ass with another new voter.
by Darknesse on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:08:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It happens in batches (2.00 / 1)

It happened to me and a bunch of other people recently, all Obama supporters, by the way. One possibility we arrived at in our speculations is that if a diary you recommended is pulled from the rec list by a moderator, your rec and rate priviliges are removed.

Interestingly, the day it happened to me and my cohort, the rec list went from almost all pro-Obama diaries to all pro Clinton and/or anti-Obama diaries. I don't think it's remotely paranoid to think that this is being used to control the rec list. It fits the data.


by kydoc on Tue May 13, 2008 at 09:52:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It happens in batches (none / 0)

Exactly.


Pointing to the inadequacies of John McCain
by duende on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:06:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Good to see that we have the election in the bag! (none / 0)

Couldn't be more confident that Obama will win EVERYWHERE.

Who needs healthcare? Nobody.

(just kidding)


Universal healthcare IS a core Democratic value
Comprehensively cover 100%, not only the healthiest 80%
by architek on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:24:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It happens in batches (2.00 / 1)

I am a little relieved that I am not the only Obama supporter that lost his rec privs


PUMA: Particularly Undeveloped Mental Ability
by wellinformed on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:17:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It happens in batches (2.00 / 1)

Oh no, by no means.  Supporting the nominee is a punishable offense.


by Jordache on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:21:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It happens in batches (2.00 / 1)

Lost mine here also!  So now, I'm not surprised, seeing it seems to be one-sided.


by FlashStash on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:37:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It happens in batches (none / 0)

Lost mine too, don't know why.

I find it odd that a site that espouses 'direct democracy' and political involvement would take such undemocratic measures in rigging the story elections.   It says a lot about the site founder.

OOOoooops.  I'll probably lose posting privileges for that one.


"I'm all for the delegate battle, and now that Obama's campaign is too, I'm all giddy. It's going to be the supers as kingmaker." J.Armstrong 01/19/08
by obscurant on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:15:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

That's what happened to me. (none / 0)

Never been able to rec or mojo anyone since.  I assumed Jerome did it personally.


by McNasty on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:07:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It happens in batches (none / 0)

The anti-Obama rec list diaries are still dominated in the comments by Obama supporters.  It's obvious there's a rating ability disparity, or maybe the hillaryis44 and noquarter crowd is just that good at sending their drones over to rec their shit up.


by Skaje on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:40:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

hillaryis44 had openly advocated,,, (none / 0)

hillary supporters recommending all pro-hillary diaries here.  you could see glimpses of their strategy early on.  not that there's anything wrong with that.

i've never detected a similar strategy here, and i generally don't rec diaries or comments -- which is why i asked the question in the first place.

i do think that it's really important to recognize the two different phenomenons, though.  the strategy of the hillary people here is very top-down, very disciplined -- which would have been great in 1996.  the strategy of the barack people here has been very self-organized.

what we see here mirrors what we see on the ground.  that's sort of interesting.  no drones needed...


"Anyone who voted for me or caucused for me has so much more in common with Senator Obama than Senator McCain." -- Hillary Clinton
by bored now on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:39:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It happens in batches (2.00 / 1)

Wow, this makes a lot of sense -- it happened to me, too.  It's kinda sickening, actually.  All of a sudden Pro-Obama diaries were making it onto the rec list.  Then they rounded up the 'culprits' and shut it down to give Alegre back her spot as Queen.


John McCain the flip-flopper...
by chinapaulo on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:32:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: BREAKING: Obama 51 - McSame 44 (none / 0)

It actually happened to me. One day, I could still see hidden comments and such, but my ability to rate/rec disappeared.

This comment clued me in on the solution. I changed my password, and it was fixed. A lot of people chimed in that the same thing had happened to them.


by mattw on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:15:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: BREAKING: Obama 51 - McSame 44 (2.00 / 1)

Nope that didn't work either. I wish the admins would just admit it. They've got a deal to keep Hillary diaries dominating the rec list. They have regular purges or reccing power when it's been dominated by too many pro Obama diaries. They daren't openly admit their censoring, nor permanently put off the supporters of the likely nominee, so they use these underhand tactics..

This selective disenfranchisement reminds me of one of the candidates. No prizes for guessing which one


Pointing to the inadequacies of John McCain
by duende on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:29:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

that's odd - try again (2.00 / 2)

could be cuz I was updating.


"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!
by Al Rodgers on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:28:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

What's up with the hat? (none / 0)


It's time to restore balance and fairness to our economy,... It's time to stop giving tax cuts to corporations that ship jobs overseas... - Barack Obama
by Lefty Coaster on Mon May 12, 2008 at 11:13:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I haven't been able to recommend (none / 0)

since Sunday.

I just figured I lost my ability for hide rating someone, but it did seem odd that I could no longer rec diaries.

Oh well...the HR, TR and Mojo lost all its effectiveness early on in this campaign season when the admins decided to either selectively enforce the rules or just gave up on trying to stem the abuse altogether.


by bookish on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:41:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I haven't been able to recommend (none / 0)

Get another account.  Get 50.


by Jordache on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:13:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I lost my rec/ratings priv's, too (none / 0)

Yes, I'm an Obama supporter, too.  Happened a few days ago. Not sure why (I wasn't TRing Clinton supporters or anything).  I emailed Jonathan Singer, but haven't heard anything yet. Is it really because I had the audacity (excuse the pun) to rec pro-Obama diaries and comments?  That's pretty lame if that's why.


by Rumproast on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:29:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I lost my rec/ratings priv's, too (2.00 / 2)

It's also comforting to see that I lost all rec privileges but a guy like yellowdem, who has basically stated that Dems need to embrace homophobia if they ever want to be the majority party, has full privileges and now has a diary on the rec list.

Great direct democracy you've got going here, MyDD.


by Rumproast on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:37:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I lost my rec/ratings priv's, too (2.00 / 1)

Yellowdem has other issues.


by niksder on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:44:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I lost my rec/ratings priv's, too (none / 0)

Pretty new here. When did that start happening? Did all the Obama supporters get their permissions killed or something?


by thelennybeast on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:36:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I lost my rec/ratings priv's, too (none / 0)

Loads have - I've still got mine, not sure why I've survived and others haven't.  There's no question that its biased against Obama supporters, Clinton fans have to do something totally outrageous to get banned, then they are let back in a week later.


by interestedbystander on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:48:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Many have lost their ability to rec... (none / 0)

I still have mine like interestedbystander, but many have lost theirs.


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:05:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: BREAKING: Obama 51 - McSame 44 (2.00 / 3)

Regardless of who you may support, who do you think (ITEM) - (Clinton) or (Obama)?
Clinton - 26%
Obama - 62%
We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:23:51 PM EST

Re: BREAKING: Obama 51 - McSame 44 (2.00 / 3)

oops...above question was - Who do you think has the better chance of getting elected president in   November?


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:24:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

A 3 point or a 13 point margin- Not a tough choice (2.00 / 4)

Barack Obama will be our next President!


It's time to restore balance and fairness to our economy,... It's time to stop giving tax cuts to corporations that ship jobs overseas... - Barack Obama
by Lefty Coaster on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:36:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: But, but (1.66 / 6)

This poll is meaningless--just like most of the polls this spring.  The only worthwhile polls we've seen came in a brief period a few weeks ago.  In those, Clinton outpolled Obama against McCain.  

Now those were some good polls.

How do I know this poll is bad?

(a) Obama cannot get beat McCain.
(b) This poll shows Obama trouncing McCain.

ergo

(c) This poll is garbage.


by deminva on Tue May 13, 2008 at 09:22:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: But, but (none / 0)

Diminva, I like your method of reasoning.


by Jordache on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:23:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: But, but (none / 0)

She starts with her desired conclusion and works backwards.


It's time to restore balance and fairness to our economy,... It's time to stop giving tax cuts to corporations that ship jobs overseas... - Barack Obama
by Lefty Coaster on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:03:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: BREAKING: Obama 51 - McSame 44 (2.00 / 9)

He keeps gaining in the VOTER demographic. There seems to be a pattern there.


Unable to rec or rate Still supporting Obama
by astoria gooner on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:25:16 PM EST

Re: BREAKING: Obama 51 - McSame 44 (2.00 / 10)

Voters are just voting for him because he's a voter. If voters voted like non-voters, Clinton would have more votes than Obama didn't..something.


Unable to rec or rate
Still supporting Obama
Still not putting up with "preening" posts
by jaiwithani on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:35:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: BREAKING: Obama 51 - McSame 44 (none / 0)

Gave you some mojo for making me laugh!!


by hopeful on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:24:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: BREAKING: Obama 51 - McSame 44 (2.00 / 6)

Overall, Democrats enjoy a 21-point advantage over Republicans as the party best-equipped to handle the nation's problems.

As the Democratic race nears the end of its primary-caucus season, with the next round of voting set for Tuesday in West Virginia, this new national poll shows Obama with a 12-point advantage over Clinton as the preferred choice for the nomination.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:26:31 PM EST

Re: BREAKING: Obama 51 - McSame 44 (2.00 / 7)

McCain romps against Obama among the 16 percent who see the country as headed in the right direction, but among the near-record 82 percent who hold a pessimistic view, Obama runs more than 20 points ahead of McCain. Similarly, about seven in 10 of those who disapprove of Bush said they would back Obama over McCain, while McCain picks up most of those who are still behind the president. The trouble for McCain is that Bush's approval has slipped to 31 percent, and has been under 50 percent for 38 consecutive months.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:27:41 PM EST

Re: BREAKING: Obama 51 - McSame 44 (2.00 / 1)

I thought his approval rating was at 28%. Surely it didn't go up?


Even John McCain lusts after teh engels.
by sricki on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:31:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: BREAKING: Obama 51 - McSame 44 (2.00 / 1)

That must have been in a different poll. In this poll, Bush dropped two points from last month.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:32:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: BREAKING: Obama 51 - McSame 44 (none / 0)

I think that was his Gallup number.


by Jay R on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:18:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: BREAKING: Obama 51 - McSame 44 (2.00 / 5)

Some interesting numbers there:

-64% of Democrats say Clinton should remain in the race, including 42% of Obama's supporters.

-26% of Clinton supporters say they'd favor McCain over Obama in a general election matchup, while 22% of Obama supporters say they'd take McCain over Clinton.

-39% have Clinton as the preferred choice of Obama's running mate -- with 59% being African Americans, 47% being Clinton supporters, 42% of women (vs. 34% of men)

-Factors: 39% of Americans say they'd be uncomfortable with a president first taking office at age 72, 16% say they'd be uncomfortable with a woman, 12% say they'd be uncomfortable with an African-American.

-Six in 10 Americans and 73% of Democrats say Obama has done "the right amount" to distance himself from Wright.

Also interesting:

As the Democratic race nears the end of its primary-caucus season, with the next round of voting set for Tuesday in West Virginia, this new national poll shows Obama with a 12-point advantage over Clinton as the preferred choice for the nomination.

More than six in 10 Democrats now say Obama is the one with the better shot at winning in November, and while Clinton retains her wide advantage as the better experienced, for the first time Obama has the edge on the question of who is the "stronger leader."

Obama and McCain are more evenly matched on leadership and "personal and ethical standards." In early March, McCain had an advantage over Obama as the stronger leader, while Obama had the edge on ethics.
...
Independents will be a key voter group in the fall, and currently they split 51 percent to 42 percent for Obama. In a Clinton-McCain match-up, 49 percent would back McCain, 46 percent Clinton.
...
Should Obama be the Democratic nominee, Clinton is by far the most popular choice to be his running-mate. On an open-ended question, about four in 10 Democrats volunteered the New York senator as their choice for the vice presidential nomination, with John Edwards a distant second at 10 percent.
But most Americans, including a slim majority of Democrats, said putting Clinton on the Democratic ticket would not have much effect on their vote in November.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con tent/article/2008/05/12/AR2008051201073. html?hpid=topnews

http://www.abcnews.go.com/images/Polling Unit/1064a208Election.pdf


by standd on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:30:22 PM EST

Re: BREAKING: Obama 51 - McSame 44 (none / 0)

I really would like to see racial tabs on the women as president number - i bet it is being pulled up by AA's by huge margins.


Matthew25Network.com
by cardboard 1 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:36:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: BREAKING: Obama 51 - McSame 44 (none / 0)

I don't think so, the only group I hear this from is women. Maybe everyone else is being dishonest and only women will admit it.  It is silly no matter who is saying it.


Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win. ~ Sun Tzu
by Tumult on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:55:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: BREAKING: Obama 51 - McSame 44 (2.00 / 1)

"39% have Clinton as the preferred choice of Obama's running mate -- with 59% being African Americans, 47% being Clinton supporters, 42% of women (vs. 34% of men)"

Wow, I guess she didn't piss off African Americans THAT much.


Hillary supporter for Barack Obama in 2008
by zcflint05 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:59:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: BREAKING: Obama 51 - McSame 44 (none / 0)

Most African Americans I have talked to want unity. It is mostly the white elite liberals who have a problem differentiating between hatred and unity (and now some black elite ones are getting added to that mindset).


by Sandeep on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:09:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: BREAKING: Obama 51 - McSame 44 (none / 0)

That's why pre SC she carried 70% of the AA vote


by Djo on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:20:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: BREAKING: Obama 51 - McSame 44 (2.00 / 2)

-Factors: 39% of Americans say they'd be uncomfortable with a president first taking office at age 72, 16% say they'd be uncomfortable with a woman, 12% say they'd be uncomfortable with an African-American.

I found this very interesting. Age is more a concern than gender AND race together.
by Lit Up on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:08:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I think that is because (none / 0)

McCain is actually at average life expectancy...which means his Veep is going to be critical.


accepting McLettuce is like being 9 years old and forced to eat your own cooking
by Sychotic1 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 09:26:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

oh (2.00 / 2)

Nothing better than a little Al Rodgers to make me smile.

I love that plane,  found out it is a real airline; you had me for a couple minutes, guess i am a true obamabot      :D


Unable to rec or rate

Read this: http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/5/15/1427 30/254

by GeorgeP922 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:31:55 PM EST

Re: BREAKING: Obama 51 - McSame 44 (2.00 / 5)

That will sway some votes in Oregon and West Virginia.

I just came back form a weekend of GOTV for Obama in Portland's suburbs.


It's time to restore balance and fairness to our economy,... It's time to stop giving tax cuts to corporations that ship jobs overseas... - Barack Obama
by Lefty Coaster on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:32:54 PM EST

Oregon a Go-Go !! (2.00 / 3)


"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!
by Al Rodgers on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:39:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oregon a Go-Go !! (2.00 / 3)

Nice photos.

I canvassed in Lake Oswego, and Gresham  

Lake Oswego is upscale (an average income of 71K), with lots of Republicans. I wore a nice shirt.

Gresham is working class (an average income of 41K), with a sizeable Hispanic minority. I wore one of my union shirts.

Obama was the overwelming favorite in both places. In two days of contacting only registered Democrats I only encountered 3 people who said they were supporting Hillary.


It's time to restore balance and fairness to our economy,... It's time to stop giving tax cuts to corporations that ship jobs overseas... - Barack Obama
by Lefty Coaster on Mon May 12, 2008 at 11:21:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oregon a Go-Go !! (2.00 / 1)

Wait... Obama is Left-Handed?

And wears his watch on his left hand?

That's terrifying.

Do we want this man running our country?

/snark.
My first post. Pure snark.


by thelennybeast on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:18:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

how about the gallup poll? (none / 0)

that has McCain and Obama neck and neck, 47-43 Obama to McCain which is in the MoE, but Hillary 49-44 over McCain? they're both under 50 percent, Hillary's up more, so I think she's still better. And if she's dipping in other polls, its because people think her chances at the nod are less. But when she wipes the floor with Obama's ass in WV tomorrow, she'll rise.


"there is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured by what is right in America"-William Jefferson Clinton, forty-second President of the United States
by DiamondJay on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:34:27 PM EST

Re: how about the gallup poll? (2.00 / 4)

polls have margins of error

but polls also have trends, and so far the only trend i've been seeing for Obama since he denounced wright and since last tuesday to be Up Up and UP.
after tomorrow it will be stale for a bit, but then it will go up again. expect mid june obama to be beating mccain by about 60% in national polls.


by AlyoshaPo on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:43:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: how about the gallup poll? (1.00 / 4)

you forgot about the Bradley effect. He will never get 60% in November. That is pure fantasy. November will be 50-49, or 49-49 at best for him, not only because of Bradley, but because Wright, "typical white people," his inexperience, the flag pin, the bitter remark, and his debate performances will not help him.


"there is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured by what is right in America"-William Jefferson Clinton, forty-second President of the United States
by DiamondJay on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:53:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Reverse Bradley effect (2.00 / 5)

NC polls were tight - a blow out occurred.

IND polls had Hill up by 12 - a tie occurred.


"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!
by Al Rodgers on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:00:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Reverse Bradley effect (2.00 / 6)

Obama is the best run campaign - ever - with unbelievable field operations. I've been involved in campaigns for 35 years and there has never been anything like this.  Polls strongly underestimate votes from voters who vote now or then or who haven't voted and the Obama campaign has been great at getting them to turnout for him.  

Meanwhile, it's the Republicans who are feeling discouraged. Evangelicals, without whom Bush would not have won, don't like McCain.  And lots of Republicans don't like McCain saying that there is global warming.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:05:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Reverse Bradley effect (2.00 / 3)

Bradley effect?!?!

Geez.  Are we back on that again?


by gil44 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:17:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Reverse Bradley effect (none / 0)

thats is a Democratic primary where more blacks than national average show up and are in the electorate. The general is a different game. the electorate is also more conservative in November.


"there is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured by what is right in America"-William Jefferson Clinton, forty-second President of the United States
by DiamondJay on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:20:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

it holds true in open primaries (2.00 / 5)

Indy was an open primary.

Wisconsin was an open primary, and once again, polls had a tight race, which 'Bama won by 18 pts.

Missouri, same thing.  On Super Tuesday, the republicans (Romney, Huck, McCain) were all competing hard, and SUSA's final poll had Hills up by 11, and the polls were drastically wrong.  A reverse bradley effect.

The same thing in Iowa. Open primary, contested on both sides, Huck and Romney were in Stalingrad like death struggle.  And with the exception of the Des Moines poll, everyone had either Edwards or Clinton winning.  DMR was the only one projecting a high single digit, 'Bama victory.


"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!
by Al Rodgers on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:34:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: it holds true in open primaries (2.00 / 3)

GOTV rules.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:46:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: it holds true in open primaries (none / 0)

"reverse bradley" in the DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY!!!  


"there is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured by what is right in America"-William Jefferson Clinton, forty-second President of the United States
by DiamondJay on Mon May 12, 2008 at 11:24:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: it holds true in open primaries (none / 0)

open primary


Senator Obama will be formally nominated on August 28, 2008 - the 45th Anniversary of Dr. King's "I Have A Dream Speech."
by brimur on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:24:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: it holds true in open primaries (none / 0)

yes but with primarily Democrats and Dem leaning independents voting in them.


"there is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured by what is right in America"-William Jefferson Clinton, forty-second President of the United States
by DiamondJay on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:34:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

and conservatives (none / 0)

don't vote for black people?


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:15:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

That's what DiamondJay is saying, yes. (2.00 / 1)

It's the same thing Clinton has been saying, albeit slightly less directly. They're both saying that there are enough voting racists in the country to give Obama a problem, perhaps even a loss, in the general.

In Clinton's case it is a tactic to try to scare the superdelegates into supporting her. Her case is that racists are a big enogh bloc to be a swing vote, i.e. a decisive margin of them would vote for her as a white democrat, but not for him as a black democrat, going in that case to McCain instead because his whiteness is more important to them than his policy.

In DiamondJay's case, I'm not sure what the motivation is.


by kydoc on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:05:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

So it's your contention (none / 0)

that there is no Bush fatigue since you're applying the historicity of the Clinton years to the context of this November's race. That's an interesting way to ignore one of the most factors driving current public sentiment.


by bookish on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:48:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

what's the date on that poll? (none / 0)

I'm pretty sure the one Al cites is newer.


No Way, No How, No McCain!
by GFORD on Mon May 12, 2008 at 11:06:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Is this snark? (none / 0)

In that poll she's up 1% more, with the MOE she can be up as much as 5% more than Obama or Obama could up as much as 4% over her. Average the two polls, he does better.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:14:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: how about the gallup poll? (none / 0)

Stay classy, DiamondJay.


by deminva on Tue May 13, 2008 at 09:27:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

All these polls really say (none / 0)

is that both Dem candidates do really well against McCain, especially considering how much time we have until the GE and all the various advantages we have this cycle (more enthusiasm, better grass roots support, better fundraising, Bash fatigue, etc, etc, etc).

We are going to bury the neocons this time around, and I don't want to hear any pessimistic blather saying otherwise!  :)


by protothad on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:34:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: BREAKING: Obama 51 - McSame 44 (2.00 / 5)

YES WE CAN!

GOD I LOVE THIS COUNTRY!!!!!


I would say at this point we're starting to see a little desperation on the part of the woman who I support... NY Governor Paterson
by obamaovermccain on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:43:09 PM EST

Re: BREAKING: Obama 51 - McSame 44 (UPDATE video) (2.00 / 6)

See? We're already beginning to come together. This makes me proud to be an American.  


"No matter what happens, I will work for the nominee of the Democratic Party because we must win in November." -Hillary Clinton
by fugazi on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:23:55 PM EST

YEEEEEAAAAAHHHHHHH! (none / 0)

Cue the fat lady.


by bigdcdem on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:50:16 PM EST

Re: BREAKING: Obama 51 - McSame 44 (UPDATE video) (2.00 / 6)

President Obama. I like the sound of that.


"No matter what happens, I will work for the nominee of the Democratic Party because we must win in November." -Hillary Clinton
by fugazi on Mon May 12, 2008 at 11:07:01 PM EST

Re: BREAKING: Obama 51 - McSame 44 (UPDATE video) (2.00 / 1)

One poll, Kerry was leading at this point, and all that.  But I like our chances.  


John McCain: Healthcare for Kids? In America? No way
by bosdcla14 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:13:29 AM EST

Recced (2.00 / 3)

The amusing thing about mydd is that you frequently see the same people on the rec list and in the hidden comments.


by Skaje on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:35:53 AM EST

GE Polls in May (2.00 / 1)

Interesting, but meaningless.  The one v one campaign hasn't even begun yet.

I seem to recall Dukakis had a 15 point lead...in August.  So, I take these very early polls with a huge grain of salt.

Remember where Obama was vs. Hillary 6 months ago?

'Nuff said.


by DaTruth on Tue May 13, 2008 at 05:57:35 AM EST

Re: GE Polls in May (2.00 / 2)

So you're saying Obama will be 30pts ahead of McCain when he starts campaigning directly against him?  Awesome!



Lost rate and rec for issuing a '1' to a trollish comment. The troll, not so much.

by map on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:27:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Breaking: (none / 0)

5/11 Gallup tracking poll:

Clinton +5 over McCain
Obama +4 over McCain


by Ed J on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:45:24 AM EST

great pics, al! (none / 0)

LOVE all of them.  

the behind the back shot - w00t!

and love the one w/him in his shades.

ah, to have a cool president again.  =)

rec'ed.


Visit us at TexasKAOS, where we're taking Texas back!
by annatopia on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:41:49 AM EST

Re: BREAKING: Obama 51 - McSame 44 (UPDATE video) (2.00 / 2)

Al. You're a gent. And a scholar. The photos, and particularly my first viewing of The Empire Strikes Back had me clapping aloud.

"Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive."


Pointing to the inadequacies of John McCain
by duende on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:46:31 AM EST

Re: BREAKING: Obama 51 - McSame 44 (UPDATE video) (none / 0)

Brit?  Is that you?


by interestedbystander on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:53:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: BREAKING: Obama 51 - McSame 44 (UPDATE video) (none / 0)

National polls don't matter.

State polls do.  Look above, it doesn't bode well for him.

She seems to be doing just dandy-fine, however.


by bellarose on Tue May 13, 2008 at 09:52:05 AM EST

The methodology on that map (none / 0)

is AWFUL.  It's just the most recent poll, regardless of source, and assigns all EVs regardless of whether the poll margin is 1% or 20%.

Six months out, that tells you virtually nothing.  Look at fivethirtyeight for a rational methodology for using polling data to create an electoral map.


by Rorgg on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:59:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: BREAKING: Obama 51 - McSame 44 (UPDATE video) (2.00 / 1)

Well damn, if BO is down so far in the state polls (the states that matter), guess it just means we AS DEMOCRATS will have to work just that much harder against McSame.  He was in Portland yesterday giving some big speech on the environment.  Seems the MSM failed to mention he ranks #535 out of 535 on the environment according to the League of Conservation Voters (source: Rachel Maddow).  I think BO has about a 99% chance of getting the nomination but regardless of who prevails in the end, the important part is making sure we work towards electing a candidate who will actually respect our planet with actions rather than words.  


by Rick in Eugene on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:16:57 AM EST

Re: BREAKING: Obama 51 - McSame 44 (UPDATE video) (2.00 / 1)

Great news, and I believe that the polls will only get better after there is a head to head. McCain is pretty easy to beat in the present climate.


by telfishbackagain on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:25:40 AM EST

Re: BREAKING: Obama 51 - McSame 44 (UPDATE video) (2.00 / 4)

Obama is going to be the nominee, I have accepted that as a Clinton supporter. I also think, and have thought for a while, that whoever wins the nomination would ultimately trounce McCain. The media has tried their best to make this a horserace, but once Democrats come together I expect Obama to average a 3 to 6 point spread in these general election matchups, if not more. I do not think this will be a nailbiter election as long as Obama's campaign is run clean and largely mistake free. The Economy is going to kill John McCave.


by Christopher Lib on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:15:50 PM EST

Re: BREAKING: Obama 51 - McSame 44 (UPDATE video) (none / 0)

Paid polls....   c'mon stop your deception !!


by SHIBAM8P on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:59:30 PM EST

Re: BREAKING: Obama 51 - McSame 44 (UPDATE video) (none / 0)

Who knew he was such a shark?  And, I was thinking Men in Black in the Speed Racer photo, dude could pull a stint as Will Smith's protege.

Latest polls for AK have it 48 - 43 for McCain, within the margin of error.  I don't necessarily expect to turn AK blue, but we're gonna give it our best shot.  If Barr campaigns up here, he could have enough of an impact on our Libertarian sensibilities to potentially tip the race to Obama.

Down ticket will be huge, too.


"The only way I can lose this election is if I'm caught in bed with either a dead girl or a live boy."
by AK Democrat on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:32:03 AM EST


You are not logged in.

In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.

If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.