No answer?  Odd.  Look, if it makes you feel better, McCain and Obama are about neck and neck right now, and that's with, what, 30% of Hillary supporters saying they won't vote for Obama (and who knows how many of them saying "McCain" when polled)?  The odds that the percentage of those disaffected democrats who either are convinced that Obama isn't such a bad guy and/or McCain is a really bad presidential prospect will be higher than current Obama supporters switching their vote to John McCain are very very very high.

I posted a diary that was pretty much just a link to Poblano's www.fivethirtyeight.com blog.  If you go there you'll probably be able to pull up one of his posts about the post-convention bump that does some rough analysis on this.

Of course, the more we want to win in November, the harder we have to work to show these disaffected democrats that while Obama isn't their first choice, he makes a pretty good second choice (and is miles ahead of the distant distant third choice).

I was talking about terra!

Thanks for following up - you and I are on the same page.

you'd think if I were into condemning I'd be as rude to those who reply to me as they are to me. but like I said, I don't care about anything but the bottom line, and no, I can't be shaken off that with insinuations that I am a moralizer. if you see a fire, you grab a bucket. You don't sit out because the person trapped in the house pissed you off. That's not self-righteousness, that is humanity.

as long as we are in Iraq, he knew we needed as many soldiers as possible to take the strain off those already there. but he doesn't support Bush. he supports his fellow marines.

Wow.

Wow.

Wow.  Okay.  I don't...

Wow.

So you're considering yourself one of those who criticized the troops when they came back from Vietnam? You're standing with them?

If so, I don't consider you one of the good people.

If not, if you don't stand with them, why in the world would you take an attack on the bad apples to be an attack on you?

People make fun of political correctness all the time, but if your point is that merely calling out the bad apples is equivalent to attacking the entire movement, then that is political correctness run amok.

In fact, Obama's merely slamming the bad apples, the people who did something that, unless I misremember this thread, you yourself described as objectionable behavior. I fail to understand getting all up in arms about that. And where was your outrage when Hillary Clinton declared MoveOn.org and democratic activists to be part of the problem? She made a far, far more direct swipe at the left wing of the party than Obama ever has.

As for your other comment:
<quote>
those of us who worked so hard and long - and did the heavy lifting on war, women's rights, health care and taxes.  AND race relations.

He likes those Repugs on those issues.
</quote>

Prove it. Obama's got a strong record on both Iraq (opposed it, for the right reasons; supported the troops in office while introducing a bill to end the war; has a clear plan to end the war) and now Vietnam; he's got an extremely good record on reproductive rights; he's got a very strong record on health care (we can go back and forth about whose plan is better), and he's got an extremely strong stand on taxes and race relations.

On not one of those issues does he like the Repugs. His stance on Iraq? Shouldn't have gone; shouldn't be there; shouldn't stay. His stance on women's rights? Pro. Abortion rights? Very strongly pro-choice. Health care? For universal health care; has said many positive things about single-payer and has designed his plan as a clear gateway to single-payer. Taxes? Roll back the Bush tax cuts; raise the capital gains tax; lower taxes on the middle class; tax breaks benefiting lower-income taxpagers. Race relations? Cue the Philadelphia speech.

Show me one of those issues where his stance is even vaguely close to that of the Repugs (and no, citing Lincoln as a Repug, if you're going to take on race relations, won't cut it).

Otherwise, shame on you.

you know that's deceptive. Hillary has won a group of white guys that vote dem in locals but pug for prez, cause they're into national security and they've come to her for the first time because she's not   whiner, she just gets out there and works. they like her moxie. she said that poorly.  Obama's retort was that Bill hadn't won them and he won the prez, but he had ross perot as a spoiler, he won with less than half the popular vote cause of perot.