proof gas tax holiday worked;Obama flawed

There are 2 bits of conventional wisdom in the "elite" media :

1. that the "pandering" of Clinton on the Gas tax Holiday backfired.  As their logic goes, Obama stood up and told a hard truth and was rewarded by the voters.

2.  that Obama has overcome his "elite" and "Rev. Wright" problems

I disagree with the whole template of #1, but without attacking the premise, the conclusion is clearly wrong.  As for #2  the facts from the NC exit poll proves them wrong:

1.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primari es/results/epolls/#INDEM

The race started out with Obama +4 (very close to his prediction weeks ago)--I got this number from those who made up their mind before the last month.  Then

Hillary won the last month +4
            the last week  +12
            the last 3 days +16
            the last day +14

That means for the last month as Hillary was attacking on the gas tax, Hillary won by numbers that would have given her momemtum in the race in almost everyone's eyes.  These are the facts, rather than spin.  

Obama started off with a lead, and lost it.  The media knows this because he predicted it in his spreadsheet, and it hasn't been wrong very much.

What happened was that the media felt like throwing the race to Obama and waited for the opportunity from the NC "blowout".

2.

As for Obama moving past his elitism and "Wright", the best comparison is looking at Virginia and S.C., compared to NC.  These states are very similar with large black populations and rather conservative whites.

Obama did well with african americans.  I'm discounting this only because for the last 3 months there has never been a dip in any state in the black vote below 75-80%.  This means that as a group A.A.'s aren't paying attention to the debate, they are voting for Obama based on race.

White women, and White men however have voted for Obama in Wisconsin, South Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, etc.

So they are "gettable"

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primari es/results/epolls/#NCDEM

Yet in NC,  Clinton won:

White Democrats by 25 points in NC
White Independents by 20 points in NC
Republicans (mostly white) by 28 points in NC

For Hillary to drop out under these circumstances would be irresponsible.

What if there has been a permanent change in that Obama can win A.A.'s and educated whites, and then is stuck?

We will find out in Oregon for sure.
If Obama loses the same demographics as he has the last 2 months, he is a flawed candidate.

HRC is actually stronger after Indiana and N.C. that she was beforehand.  Look at the facts.  The question is whether Democrats will choose facts over emotions.

We can complain in November or win and sort it out later.
HRC for POTUS is still on track!



Display:


Re: proof gas tax holiday worked;Obama flawed (2.00 / 2)

What a racist diatribe:

"This means that as a group A.A.'s aren't paying attention to the debate, they are voting for Obama based on race."

They HAVE been paying attention to the antics of the Clintons and are backing the candidate who respects them.


"I am standing with Barack Obama to say, `Yes, we can!'" Hillary Clinton 6/7/08
by feliks on Sat May 10, 2008 at 09:55:46 AM EST

The Clinton Racist Canard (none / 0)

Listen Blacks are voting for Obama because he is Black. I doubt that all 92% of Black voters in N.C.
studied the issues. Why would they study the issues anymore than white voters. Let's call it ethnic solidarity. Were the converse true and 92% of White North Carolinians had voted against Obama, would that have be racist....you bet. Bit of a paradox.
by hypopg on Sat May 10, 2008 at 10:18:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

How racist (2.00 / 1)

How dare you say that?  Every black person I know(including myself) can list 10 reasons why they are voting for Barack and they all have to do with policy and the Clintons shady past.


by sweet potato pie on Sat May 10, 2008 at 10:35:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Clinton Racist Canard (2.00 / 1)

In South Carolina, 35% of the African Americans voted for Clinton.

Have you forgotten that? That's consistent with the number of e.g. older women that vote for Clinton, and shows you the extent and the limits of identity politics.

Since then Clinton herself LOST that 35% and it went down to 7% through her OWN dismissive attitude towards black voters.

She lost the black WOMAN vote as well. Why would she lose that one if it was just about everyone supporting their own?

Were the converse true and 92% of White North Carolinians had voted against Obama, would that have be racist....you bet.

Obama has never chosen to diss and dismiss white voters in the ways that Clinton has dissed and dismissed black voters -- or the way that you dismiss them right now in this post.


by Aris Katsaris on Sat May 10, 2008 at 10:37:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

through her own dismissive attitude? (none / 0)

are you serious?

Thanks for the laugh!


vote blue in 2008
by sepulvedaj3 on Sat May 10, 2008 at 11:25:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: through her own dismissive attitude? (none / 0)

I know, it's hilarious how Clinton blew her chances entirely and her most hardcore supporters are in denial and trying to spin this so hard they delve into racism and sheer ignorance.


Serious question- Is This Snark?
by ragekage on Sat May 10, 2008 at 12:16:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Clinton Racist Canard (none / 0)

It`s not 35%, more like 20% A.A. who voted for Clinton in South Carolina.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21226006/

The damage to her A.A. support was done before that primary; Bill Shaheen insinuating that Obama was a drug dealer and Bill Clinton telling that Obama`s opposition to the war was a fairy tale.


by Gabbo on Sat May 10, 2008 at 01:09:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Clinton Racist Canard (none / 0)

you missed my point ENTIRELY. Earlier in the race Senator Clinton was winning the AA vote. BUT because of the ANTICS of the Clinton campaign around race, the AA voters WERE paying attention and decided Obama was a better choice.


"I am standing with Barack Obama to say, `Yes, we can!'" Hillary Clinton 6/7/08
by feliks on Sat May 10, 2008 at 11:28:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: proof gas tax holiday worked;Obama flawed (2.00 / 2)

Then why isn't Hillary Clinton talking about it anymore?

If she thought it was a good issue, she would be running ads on it and talking about it -- yet she dropped it like a hot potato.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Sat May 10, 2008 at 10:02:47 AM EST

Re: proof gas tax holiday worked;Obama flawed (2.00 / 1)

What's more:

Why weren't the voters been willing to elevate Hillary Clinton -- with all her name recognition -- to the majority in NC?


by Brad G on Sat May 10, 2008 at 10:33:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: proof gas tax holiday worked;Obama flawed (none / 0)

She didn't air a minute about the gas tax holiday in Oregon.  I think she now realizes it was a failed policy, or perhaps it didn't help her get any additional votes.  Or perhaps she now knows that the American people know the difference.


by hienmango on Sat May 10, 2008 at 02:05:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama is a dumb ass (none / 0)

it will be fun to watch mccain run all over him in the ge IF hillary doesn't win.....


by nikkid on Sat May 10, 2008 at 11:33:22 AM EST

Re: Obama is a dumb ass (2.00 / 1)

Wow, what a lucid, cogent, intelligent argument. If you think it would be fun to watch McCain become president, do you even care about issues? Or is it just about getting your candidate in? Grow up.


by Grant Caesar Peters on Sat May 10, 2008 at 12:36:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: proof gas tax holiday worked;Obama flawed (none / 0)

Well, it may mean that she swung some. However, Obama supporters may have seen it and chosen NOT to switch, so they wouldn't have declared earlier.


by Falsehood on Sat May 10, 2008 at 11:39:11 AM EST

Re: proof gas tax holiday worked;Obama flawed (none / 0)

Riddle me this Bat man, if she has such a broader base and this gas pandering worked, how did she lose in NC and win Indiana by less than 2 points when women out voted men in both states by 10%?


by Grant Caesar Peters on Sat May 10, 2008 at 12:35:13 PM EST

Re: proof gas tax holiday worked;Obama flawed (none / 0)

According to actual numbers Clinton started out +9 in some polls http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/in/indiana_democratic_pri mary-639.html#polls

This diary is pure spin and drivel.


by Grant Caesar Peters on Sat May 10, 2008 at 12:44:56 PM EST

Re: proof gas tax holiday worked;Obama flawed (2.00 / 1)

". . .as a group A.A.'s aren't paying attention to the debate, they are voting for Obama based on race."

Go Away!


by shalca on Sat May 10, 2008 at 12:45:03 PM EST

Re: proof gas tax holiday worked;Obama flawed (none / 0)

**Thank you, thank you, thank you!!!!  When I saw those stupid statistics that said Hillary got blown out in North Carolina and had won Indiana by less than one point, I knew there was something wrong.  Excuse me while I go find a stick to poke out my lying eyes!  


If the choice is between hope and fear, always choose hope. BC
by greylox on Sat May 10, 2008 at 12:47:51 PM EST

Re: proof gas tax holiday worked;Obama flawed (none / 0)

What difference does any of this "reasoning" make? . You know she isn't going to win.


by Becky G on Sat May 10, 2008 at 01:10:35 PM EST

Re: proof gas tax holiday worked;Obama flawed (none / 0)

Hillary may be stronger, but she's behind and won't be able to catch up.


by hienmango on Sat May 10, 2008 at 02:01:49 PM EST


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