We've known for a long while that Liddy Dole is vulnerable, that it is not certain that she will win a second term in the United States Senate representing North Carolina. In recent months, polling has showed that even as she has held a lead against potential Democratic challengers, including state Senator Kay Hagan (who won her party's nomination this past week), she has been unable to crack the 50 percent mark in named head-to-head polling. And now, Dole can't even claim to hold a lead over Hagan, according to Rasmussen Reports polling:
Dole (R): 47 percent (52 percent in April)
Hagan (D): 48 percent (39 percent in April)500 NC LVs interviewed May 8, MoE +/- 4.5%
In the course of just one month, Hagan has gained 9 points and Dole has lost 5. One should always take single day polling with a grain of salt -- polling conducted over multiple days tends to be more reliable. What's more, the fact that this polling came directly in the wake of heavy campaigning by Hagan and the positive press that comes with winning a contested primary (the poll was in the field two days after balloting) likely weighed on these results to at least an extent.
Nevertheless, this movement is really remarkable, and it suggests that this race may be on the map come this fall. Hagan will still have to pick up more support if she hopes to succeed in November. In Senate elections in 2002 and 2004, Democrat Erskine Bowles was able to get 45 percent and 47 percent support, respectively, so clearly there is a base for support for Democratic Senate candidates in the state. But the trick is getting from the mid- to upper-40s and up above 50 percent, something no Democrat has been able to do in a Senate election in the state in a decade. For Hagan to be able to do this, she is going to need to significantly eat away at the $3,157,666 to $317,311 cash-on-hand disadvantage she faces (you can help her do that through Act Blue). Yet either way this should be an interesting one to watch, particularly to see if this tie holds.
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