I'd agree he likely wins NC with 90% of the black vote but if he only squeaks in and she wins Indiana isn't that going to give you a moments pause? Probably not.

or 2nd if he loses NC as well...

/And how many pundits have done better than that? /

Me, for starters.

I've not been wrong on a single state.

I even had Clinton's win to the decimal place in PA (posted here in predictions thread).

I have hated from the beginning (or SC at least) that this primary season was going to be all about demographics and little else, but there you go.  Apparently it's still 1963 in America.

Anyway, if we are playing that way, Obama's demographics may secure him the nomination in June, but not the WH.  There are not enough African Americans and college graduates in America to defeat McCain if he dominates the working class vote nationwide.  Hillary may have a chance in hell of recapturing some Reagan Democrats, while Obama has no chance at all, not anymore.

and further to that point Jerome,   you have scores of members SAYING that the purge was intentional and very welcome.

Is that true?

Read this: http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/5/15/1427 30/254

The polls this week reset expectations.

Agree.

is if she wins North Carolina.

After Wright, the media's expectations for Obama has been lowered.  They are expecting him to lose Indiana and to win North Carolina in single digits.

A game changer is if Hillary won North Carolina and Indiana.

Another game changer is if Obama wins North Carolina and Indiana.

I think they will split and this primary season just continues.

How?  She can win 70/30 the rest of the way, and the SD's STILL are not going to give her the nomination because it overturns the perceived will of the people.  Our primary does not take into account popular vote.  He is the pledged delegate winner, the rules of our game.  

Have we not learned ANYTHING since 2000?  

The GE audience is very different from the primary audience. If Obama cannot put Rev. Wright behind him with Democrats in the primary then he will have a very big problem to deal with in the general.

Wright just threw into relief Obama's problems with the core Dem voters. You'd have rather found out in the general presumably.

Less coverage of it today.  After the primary, it will be on to something else.

We got more delegates, popular votes, money and states.

Unless someone can prove to the party beyond a shadow of a doubt that Obama can't win in November, we've also got the Democratic nominee.

I don't hate the Clintons. I used to be a Clinton supporter and switched to Obama in January.

I have nightmares lately that Obama's supporters are so wrapped in the historic nature of Obama's campaign that winning the nomination will be enough for them, and the fact that they lose the WH in November will be dissapointing but OK, validating their perception that America really isn't ready for a black President.

BTW, Clinton's campaign is groundbreaking and historic too.  Her supporters, however, know that the nomination is not an end unto itself.

I hope not because of this. That is not the way to win anything imho. I think Sen Clinton will win, but it should NOT be because of lowered turnouts.

NH was different.  In NH Clinton had a double digit lead and Obama caught up in the last week, and then two game changers happened.  

1) The single most dishonest mailer of the campaign was sent out by the Clintons, and

2) the media jumped the shark attacking her for being human.  

Those two events turned the tide in NH, and I don't see anything similar happening to turn things in Obama's favor in IN.  So, unfortunately, he's going to be forced to limp to victory in June.  Our party sure does suck sometimes.

And Americans don't like weaklings, either (at least not outside of the wimp wing of the Democratic party).

Did Wright take the "aura" away, or did Obama do it by himself? An interesting ?

make those expectations go higher and higher!

Yay, fairy tales!

How about pansy tales? North Carolina-style.

I supported Brown in '92!  I thought he could win in a three-way.

I often have remarked on Clinton's chances, when they said there was a 10% chance, I said she'll take it, and then went up to 15% after PA, 20-25% chance now. She still has to fundamentally alter the race in a way that no one can deny.

Anyway, I don't really know of a correlation to the '08 Dem primary, it isn't '92.

I remember some guy named Clinton losing a bunch of states in the Spring and Summer of 1992

The only spring primary Clinton lost to Brown was Connecticut (which he lost by something like 1%).

we have just watched Obama throw his spiritual mentor under the bus. Obviously he had no hesitation in throwing his grand mother under the bus. Obama is the ultimate machine politician from Chicago. He is capable of doing whar ever to win. I like that. That is a great qualification for a politician.

My honest opinion and guess?  Probably not.  People will pat her on the back and say, great moral victory, but my best is, in all honesty, all it'll do is extend it, while maintaing the current atmosphere, namely, HRC needing Obama to trip.  Now, a double (and preferably, a double plus Edwards and his 19 delegates that likely will follow his lead, followed with a big Kentucky win) would shake things up and change the dynamics, IMO, to the point where she can charge ahead without hoping that Obama falls.

Tough situation for HRC.  I hope she can pull it out, as I think she could do truly great things for this nation, and for the party and liberalism, but it's a tough, tough world.

Obama's the elitist... hmm, dude paid his college loans off three years ago.  That smacks of blue blooded elitism ...

Obama's not an elitist and I say that as a hillary guy. However, he is perceived as being out of touch with the bulk of trad dem working and lower middle class voters. And as we all know perception is reality. This is the 500 pound gorilla in the room and the Obama stalwarts don't even want to think about it.    

No surprise, nor is it a surprise NC is tightening.  It is a close race ... she has lots of supporters ... and it will be similar to PA.  8/10 point victory in NC for Obama; a five point loss in IN.  Net/net - we are six primaries closer to the end ... and less opportunity for Hillary to make up ground in the PD column.  

In North Carolina, Obama dominates all age groups with one exception--those age 70 and older, where the two are essentially tied.

Democrats--North Carolina
 4-30/5-1

Clinton
 34%

Obama
 50%

Someone else
 8%

Not sure
 8%

Clinton leads by 10 points among white voters in North Carolina--47% to 37% - but Obama dominates among African American voters, 73% to 10% for Clinton. Among men, Obama leads, 57% to 30%, and he leads among women voters as well--winning 44% support to Clinton's 37% backing.

Asked if the statements of controversial Obama pastor Jeremiah Wright made voters more or less likely to support Obama, 15% of North Carolina voters said they were less likely to support him, while 4% said the comments made them more likely to support Obama.

In Indiana, the two Democrats were deadlocked at 42% each, with 16% either favoring someone else or yet undecided.

Democrats--Indiana
 4-30/5-1

Clinton
 42%

Obama
 42%

Someone else
 7%

Not sure
 9%

The demographic breakdowns in Indiana mirror what we have seen in earlier voting states, with Obama leading among younger voters and Clinton leading among older voters. A key middle-age demographic--those age 35 to 54--now favors Obama by a 48% to 41% margin in Indiana, but this demo turned out to be a key battleground in Pennsylvania, which has a somewhat similar population make-up.

Obama leads in northern Indiana, a large section of which is influenced by Obama's hometown Chicago media market. In the southern half of the state, which features a population much like that of Ohio next door, Clinton enjoys a double-digit lead. Obama enjoys an 11-point lead among Indiana men, while Clinton leads by seven points among women.

After getting clobbered among Catholics in Pennsylvania nearly two weeks ago, Obama wins 41% support from Indiana Catholics, compared to 40% who support Clinton. Conversely, Clinton leads among Protestants by six points after having lost among them in Pennsylvania.

Nearly three in four in Indiana--72%--said they held a positive overall view of Obama, compared to 68% who held a positive opinion of Clinton.

The statements of Rev. Wright have had more of an impact in Indiana than in North Carolina. In the Hoosier state, 21% of likely Democratic primary voters said they were less likely to vote for Obama as a result of his former pastor's statements.

There is clearly some disaffection within the Democratic electorate. Asked who they would support in a general election match-up between Clinton and McCain, 20% of Indiana Democratic voters said they would support McCain, while 21% said they would vote for McCain if he were running against Obama in the general election this fall. Asked about the same head-to-head general election match-ups, North Carolina voters were slightly less willing to cross party lines to support the Republican nominee--16% said they would vote for McCain in both the McCain-Clinton match-up and the McCain-Obama match-up.

For a detailed methodology statement on this survey, please visit:
http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmet h.dbm?ID=1301

(5/2/2008)

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