like I said, just most.

May 01   
Electoral Votes: Clinton 291     McCain 24

Electoral Votes: Obama 243     McCain 269     Ties 26

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Cl inton/Maps/May01.html

Gallup Daily: Clinton 49%, Obama 45%
McCain leads Obama in general election; McCain and Clinton tied

http://www.gallup.com/poll/106945/Gallup -Daily-Clinton-49-Obama-45.aspx

PRINCETON, NJ -- Hillary Clinton has edged ahead of Barack Obama, 49% to 45%, in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update.

Polls hint at Clinton surge
Posted by Foon Rhee, deputy national political editor May 1, 2008 10:13 AM

A bevy of new national polls, plus surveys in Indiana and North Carolina -- which hold key primaries on Tuesday -- suggest that Hillary Clinton is closing the gap since her campaign-saving victory in Pennsylvania last week, and that the controversies dogging Barack Obama are having an impact.

In a national Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll, Clinton leads Obama 44 percent to 41 percent. The Illinois senator is viewed unfavorably by 42 percent of all voters, up 9 percentage points since February. Clinton's unfavorable rating is still slightly higher than Obama's, but it has dropped slightly. And by 10 percentage points, Democrats now view Clinton as likelier than Obama to beat presumptive Republican nominee John McCain. Democrats gave Obama a 4-point edge last month.

In a national NBC/Wall Street Journal survey, Obama's lead has narrowed to 46 percent to 43 percent, and his unfavorable ratings have also risen. In March, 51 percent of voters viewed him positively and 28 percent saw him negatively, but in the new poll 46 percent view him favorably, but 37 percent negatively.

In a national New York Times/CBS poll, Obama leads 46 percent to 38 percent among Democrats, but 51 percent say they believe he will be the eventual nominee, down from 69 percent a month ago. And 48 percent of Democratic primary voters said they believe he would be the strongest candidate against McCain, down from 56 percent a month ago.

And in a Quinnipiac University poll, Clinton runs stronger than Obama in match-ups against McCain in the general election swing states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. Clinton would get 49 percent to McCain's 41 percent in Florida, leads 48 percent to 38 percent in Ohio, and 51 percent to 37 percent in Pennsylvania.

Obama is statistically tied with McCain in Florida and Ohio, while leading him in Pennsylvania by 47 percent to 38 percent, according to the poll.

The polls were being conducted as Obama's former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., was making a series of highly publicized speeches and as Obama repudiated him.

In North Carolina, a new WRAL-TV poll says that Obama's lead has narrowed to 49 percent to 42 percent, down from double digits in most prior polling.

In Indiana, where the race had been a toss-up in surveys last week, Clinton now leads in the three most recent polls. She is ahead 46 percent to 41 percent in a Rasmussen survey, 50 percent to 42 percent in Public Polling Policy survey, and 52 percent to 43 percent in a SurveyUSA poll.

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/poli ticalintelligence/2008/05/polls_hint_at_ c.html

5/1: Is The Tide Turning?

Hillary Clinton's improved performance in head-to-head match-ups with John McCain -- coupled with yesterday's NC poll showing her leading Barack Obama 44-42% -- has pro-Clinton bloggers buzzing about the NY senator's momentum.

http://blogometer.nationaljournal.com/ar chives/2008/05/51_is_the_tide.html

is not denoted by disagreement.  It's a serious charge and deserves to be leveled on someone other than an apparent Obama supporter disagreeing with an apparent Clinton supporter.

a paragon of logic and rationality in these discussions. Yet I never see anything from you suggesting that you comprehend that Obama's significant lead in pledged delegates matters to an almost decisive extent.

If the candidates split the remaining pledged delegates down the middle, Obama will need 87 PLEO endorsements to get over the top, and Clinton will need 223. Clinton got @ 53% of the PA pledged delegates with an approximate 10% margin of victory. Even if she were to achieve that margin of victory in the remaining contests and obtain 53% of the remaining pledged delegates, that would only increase her number of pledged delegates by 11. In that case Obama would need 98 PLEO endorsements to get over the top.

You also drastically underestimate the pressure that will be brought to bear upon Clinton once Obama receives these endorsements. He needs 30% of the remaining undeclared PLEOs. If he doesn't get them before June 3, he'll get them shortly after. At that point if Clinton doesn't bow out she'll confirm the party-wrecker label she's being branded with.

If in fact there is a serious trend away from Obama toward Clinton, the superdelegates are in a bit of a pickle, because they know the party is screwed if they promote the second-place primary finisher to the nomination.  The only exception I can see would be if something truly devastating came out about Obama.  One may or may not believe that devastating things have already arisen, but I would suggest the polling disagrees.

But we may just as quickly see a reversal of the polling in the next few days, which may accelerate next week if Obama wins NC and comes close or wins in IN.  There's nothing like inevitability to help poll numbers.

And as for these polls, we're still six months from the election.  Remember where everything stood six months ago?  It's amazing to me how much has occurred and how much has changed.  And there's more to come!

I don't think any of those things are going to make Obama unelectable. That, IMO, is the only reason the supers will give the nomination to someone who lost the pledged delegate race.  

If there is a big scandal that comes out of nowhere involving Obama it may change the CW but it is hard to see how any current issue is going to make Obama unelectable.  

How the hell was PA the spark? Where is this momentum coming from? In the previous two contests (that don't matter of course) Obama gained +2 delegates in Wyoming and +7 in Mississippi for a total of +9.  Hillary gained 10 delegates in PA where there were over 3 times as many delegates available than MI and WY. All I've seen is that it has taken 203 delegates since Texas/Ohio to get a net gain of +1 delegate for Hillary.

Yeah, the group that has been registering hundreds of thousands of new voters across the country, and was just vouched for by Obama supporter, board member, USAction president and Rainbow/PUSH voter reg director William McNary. See here. Attacking the voter registration groups was really dumb and self-defeating, no matter how badly he needs another trumped up controversy.