MyDD :: Insider Advantage Poll : Clinton Rebounding in PA

Insider Advantage Poll : Clinton Rebounding in PA

by lori, Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 03:58:51 PM EST

-- A new InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion poll shows Sen. Hillary Clinton regaining some ground she'd previously lost to Sen. Barack Obama in the Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary race.

Here are the results of our new poll:

Clinton 48%

Obama 38%

Undecided 13%*

The survey was conducted April 8 among 681 likely registered voters in the April 22 Pennsylvania Democratic primary. The data have been weighted for age, race and gender with a margin of error of +/-3.6%.

*Results when rounded off may not add up to 100%.

InsiderAdvantage's Matt Towery: "Sen. Clinton has made progress among both men and among all white voters. Her support among women also appears to be consolidating.

"My guess is that whatever damage she might have sustained by recent gaffs and media missteps have been largely discounted by the public. The race in Pennsylvania is clearly still fluid. But, at least for now, it's tending back towards the result that was originally anticipated by most - a Clinton lead.

"Her big task now is to maintain a double-digit lead and expand on it; Obama's is to force her back into a single-digit race. Clinton needs a resounding victory in Pennsylvania to relieve the pressure on her to quit the presidential race," said Towery.

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/d ownloads/uploaded/38_InsiderAdvantage_Ma jority%20Opinion%20PA%20DEM%20Poll%20_(4-9-2008).pdf

Maybe SurveyUsa was right after all . Two polls out today have picked up movement to Clinton like SurveyUsa did.

Tags: Clinton, Obama, Pennsylvania, April 22. (all tags)

Permalink :: 72 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Insider Advantage Poll : Clinton Rebounding in (none / 0)

except for you are also ignoring the OTHER polls that came out today that said it was getting tighter.

so basically look at the polls that show what you like and ignore the ones that don't.

Obama said, as Bill beamed. "Thank you, President Clinton."

by TruthMatters on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 04:01:07 PM EST

Re: Insider Advantage Poll : Clinton Rebounding in (none / 0)

Which ones ?

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 04:02:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Insider Advantage Poll : Clinton Rebounding in (none / 0)

actually wait are you considering the PPP poll as showing movement to hillary? I mean since its in the MOE, can we really say that?

besides the PPP what is the other poll you are saying shows movement?

Obama said, as Bill beamed. "Thank you, President Clinton."

by TruthMatters on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 04:02:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Insider Advantage Poll : Clinton Rebounding in (none / 0)

ah ok you said two not two others, then no I disagree,

I don't think the PPP shows movement to Hillary, 1) because I think the first was an outlier and 2) because it is in the MOE.

also SUSA shows her near 20% now, when no other poll shows that in fact this one shows she is at about 10% EVERY other poll that comes out is now starting to hit the 5 point range,

but I still want to see a few more polls out before I say that the SUSA poll was out there, but IA went from +3 to +10, I say its good news for both of them right now.

For HRC it may just show movement,
for BO it keeps people from putting the expectations on him, but still gives him 2 more weeks left to work with

Obama said, as Bill beamed. "Thank you, President Clinton."

by TruthMatters on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 04:06:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Insider Advantage Poll : Clinton Rebounding in (none / 0)

Take all polls with a grain of salt, but SUSA has been the most accurate this primary season. Don't discount it.

by cmugirl90 on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 07:47:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Insider Advantage Poll : Clinton Rebounding in (none / 0)

The one you are commenting under and the PPP poll .

The point of my post is to point out that the surveyusa might not be an outlier after all.

SurveyUsa picked up some movement to Clinton and it seemed like an outlier to some , but these are two polls showing movement to her.

This is what PPP wrote.

Key finding: "Clinton's rebound in the last week has come almost entirely from improving her standing with her core demographics of women, whites, and senior citizens. Her lead with woman went from 10 points to 16, with white voters it went from 11 to 17, and with voters over 65 from 16 to 21."

She was down two points in their last poll so thats a 5 point swing to her in the PPP poll .

I am not saying this is a certainty but those dismissing the surveyusa poll should keep in mind these two polls.

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 04:07:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Insider Advantage Poll : Clinton Rebounding in (none / 0)

yeah, for now I am waiting for a few more polls, really I am waiting for the next SUSA to see what happens.

anyone know when SUSA will do another one?

Obama said, as Bill beamed. "Thank you, President Clinton."

by TruthMatters on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 04:11:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Insider Advantage Poll : Clinton Rebounding in (none / 0)

This is now the third polls that shows movement Clinton's way. SUSA, PPD and now this. Rasmussen shows a stable race. All are signs that Obama's mo has halted, at least for now. A couple of other polls do show some movement Obama's way, but It's getting harder and harder to totally dismiss SUSA as an oultier as some Obama supporters are doing.

by Mayor McCheese on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 04:49:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Insider Advantage Poll : Clinton Rebounding in (none / 0)

Actually, one should compare the same poll to the same poll. E.g., PPP had Hillary up 5 from where that same poll had her last week. (It appears the original "outlier" on the low end re: Hillary.)

by christinep on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 08:47:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Oh please share (none / 0)

which poll came out today that indicated the race was getting tighter?

by linc on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 04:10:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Insider Advantage Poll : Clinton Rebounding in (none / 0)

What?! People cherry pick polls that they like?!

by Skaje on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 08:09:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Insider Advantage Poll : Clinton Rebounding in (none / 0)

Both Campaign's internals, which are the most accurate, have it within single digits according to Chuck Todd.

Bring Back MyDD - Just say No to Rec'ing Candidate Diaries.

by CardBoard on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 04:05:07 PM EST

Re: Insider Advantage Poll : Clinton Rebounding in (none / 0)

I saw someone arguing earlier that that can't be trusted because the HRC pollsters would never actually tell the truth to Todd, they would lie so that expectations get lowered and Hillary can out perform.

Obama said, as Bill beamed. "Thank you, President Clinton."

by TruthMatters on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 04:09:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

We don't need to listen to Todd (none / 0)

Rendell told us that a 4% win was what they'd consider a "big win." That suggests that their internals tell them that Obama is down by 5% or a little more.

They're running out of room to squeeze the expectations game, to be sure.

In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.

That One/Another Fella '08

by Dracomicron on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 04:12:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Insider Advantage Poll : Clinton Rebounding in (2.00 / 1)

Campaign Internals don't mean they are the most accurate.

Both campaign had their internals fail in NH and they have failed in several instances .

reporting your internals in most cases is a spin attempt

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 04:10:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Insider Advantage Poll : Clinton Rebounding in (none / 0)

since super tuesday, Obama camp has been the most accurate pollster, they have called 16/17 races, and when their err, they usually err in Clinton's favor thus the real results turn out to better for them.

cept for I think they called OH to be like a 7 point loss and they lost by 10. otherwise I am going by their numbers for my predictions, I don't think any other pollster is 16/17 and as close to the margins as they have been

Obama said, as Bill beamed. "Thank you, President Clinton."

by TruthMatters on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 04:13:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Axelrod's internals (none / 0)

He's gotten pretty much everything right except NH and ME.

In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.

That One/Another Fella '08

by Dracomicron on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 04:13:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Axelrod's internals (none / 0)

Yeah. They thought they would lose Maine, but Obama got 59%.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 04:14:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Axelrod's internals (none / 0)

seriously I stopped using the polls and I go with the internals, they called races months in advance and come within 3 of the actual results in some cases, and in others they turned out to be real conservative estimating their wins.

Obama said, as Bill beamed. "Thank you, President Clinton."

by TruthMatters on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 04:17:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Axelrod's internals (2.00 / 1)

I'm convinced he has a time machine.

In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.

That One/Another Fella '08

by Dracomicron on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 04:21:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Insider Advantage Poll : Clinton Rebounding in (none / 0)

They are the most accurate...they have daily tracking...and 3 day samples returning daily. The hire the best pollsters, and the ones we hear from are the ones without jobs.

Bring Back MyDD - Just say No to Rec'ing Candidate Diaries.

by CardBoard on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 04:17:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Insider Advantage Poll : Clinton Rebounding in (none / 0)

They only polled one day? Wow, that is strange. You get much more accurate results over several days because then you call people back who were not home the first time you call. Without call-backs, your sample skews old, since younger people go out more.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 04:13:53 PM EST

Re: Insider Advantage Poll (2.00 / 1)

So Hillary has only lost half of her initial advantage instead of three quarters? Phew, and I thought the sky was falling for a second there...

NJ Hussein Independent

by NJIndependent on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 04:16:34 PM EST

Re: Insider Advantage Poll (2.00 / 3)

Apparantly, she's poised for another come from way ahead victory.

I'm as strong as a bull moose, and you can use me to the limit. - Teddy Roosevelt

by fogiv on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 04:41:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Insider Advantage Poll (2.00 / 2)

HAHAHAHAHAHHA I love that line.

I just love how Hillary was up 26 points, just 2 weeks ago it was all about how she was going to win PA 20+ Hillary was going to win big now

Hey even if we beat him 10+ that shows how much trouble he is in. because lord knows the person who closes 16 points in a state tailor made for their opponent is in trouble.

and sadly we aren't even done yet, I bet by next week some how PA will be a state that Obama was suspose to win all along and Hillary winning will be a miracle!

Obama said, as Bill beamed. "Thank you, President Clinton."

by TruthMatters on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 04:44:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Insider Advantage Poll : (2.00 / 2)

I live here in Pa and as stated in other places- we are loao at the polls.
I work in a restaurant and have not met ONE SINGLE LIVE Obama supporter. I meet literally hundreds and hundreds of people every week.
The political talk in this area is Clinton/Mccain. What little talk there is about Obama is negative.
We talk about the down ticket candidates, about the Governor, about the school board and lots of other local issues. We talk about Iraq, the economy, jobs (and the lack there-of)and the cost of gas.
When we want a laugh, we talk about the polls.

by ProudMilitaryMom on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 04:17:03 PM EST

Re: Insider Advantage Poll : (none / 0)

yeah but where do you live? no one is denying that there can't be HUGE Clinton pockets,

just like I bet if you went to a big college campus in say Pittsburgh you might find 1 or 2 of those LIVE obama supporters

Obama said, as Bill beamed. "Thank you, President Clinton."

by TruthMatters on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 04:19:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Insider Advantage Poll : (none / 0)

I live in between Pittsburgh and Erie. My daughter goes to college in Pittsburgh, I attended a Hillary rally in Erie last week. I am a phone volunteer.
Honestly, in the hundreds and hundreds of contacts I make at work and on the phone, I really and truly have not met or heard from one, single Obama supporter. I have spoken to a few McCain supporters and the anti-choice people are firmly in his camp, but there are not many of those either.
My daughter has her absentee ballot and has helped many of her friends get theirs. Not one Obama supporter.
I know Obama had a rally in Pittsburgh at one of the colleges close to the one my daughter atttends. She tells me she and her friends do not personally know nor have they met ANY Obama supporters. Neither she nor her friends went to the rally and they don't know anybody who did. They do interact with the students from other capuses and take some classes at other schools with the cross-registering option, so you think they would have met at least one?
No Obama signs on campus, none in the dorms. They don't know anybody who went to his rally. Seriously!
Hence, we laugh at the polls. They certainly are not calling anybody in this part of the state.

by ProudMilitaryMom on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 05:16:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Insider Advantage Poll : (none / 0)

Since this has been your experience would you predict that Senator Clinton will win by at least 20% or more?

by Politicalslave on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 10:34:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Insider Advantage Poll : (2.00 / 0)

I have the same experience in Bucks County and Montgomery as well.

I have been calling for the Clinton camp and the calls i get are almost all for Clinton and a lot of them say Mccain is their second choice.

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 04:22:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Insider Advantage Poll : (none / 0)

Could you please explain to people who don't know PA something about the area -- its demographics, typical voting patterns, etc.? Thank you in advance.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 04:25:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Insider Advantage Poll : (2.00 / 0)

Bucks in south eastern pennsylvania US steels is located there , its kind off a working class area but its close to philly . Its a republican area though , the dems there are reagan dems/pro life types , I have spoken to some republicans who have registered to vote for Clinton , some of the women wanted to vote for her while others just wanted to prolong the race.

Not too many aa's there but casey should help obama at the margins there.

Its a huge county.

Montgomery is a philly surburbs , I have spoken to Obama supporters there , they just hung up on me anyway , he seems to have more support there at least I didn't have the same feel for it as I did Bucks county in terms of Clinton supporters.

Lots of students in Montgomery , its a suburb so Obama type voters but i felt Clinton was holding her own with the calls I made.

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 04:43:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Insider Advantage Poll : (none / 0)

Thanks much.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 04:50:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Bucks County (2.00 / 2)

The USX plant in Fairless Hills (i.e. Bucks County) closed down a long, long time ago. USX still owns the ground sitting next to the river, but at most there is a skeleton crew there and the old plant is used for warehousing purposes. They aren't cooking coke there or making steel. There are a bunch of landfills and recycling facilities located on the river near the old Fairless Works.

Lower Bucks County - meaning the Bristol/Fairless Hills area - does have working class roots owing to USX and the other former manufacturing plants in the area. Bristol and the Bensalem area transition into Northeast Philadelphia which is itself blue collar. Northeast Philadelphia is a bastion of blue collar, union households.

Central Bucks County is like Connecticut with high medium incomes and a highly educated populace. Used to be more rural, but urban sprawl claimed countless acres of farmland and turned them into subdivisions. Central Bucks County is prime Obama territory.

Upper Bucks County transitions into the Lehigh Valley (Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton). Upper Bucks County used to be more rural - like 20-25 years ago - but it has turned more into a commuter destination/origination point for workers from both Philly and NYC. Lot of sprawl here too, but not nearly as much as central Bucks. Upper Bucks County and the Lehigh Valley are ground zero for Obama vs. Clinton. Lot of colleges in the Lehigh Valley and a good mix of white collar/blue collar and old/young.

Bucks County as a whole is not Republican, and it is certainly not a bastion of Reagan Democrats. In the past it has undoubtedly been considered moderate, being very progressive on social issues and moderate on pocketbook issues. In the 80's and the 90's it was one of the fastest growing Counties in the country, and at that time it became more and more white collar.

Montgomery County is more republican than Bucks County or Delaware County, and Chester County is more republican than them all. My guess would be that Delaware County would hold more former Reagan Democrats than the other surrounding counties.

by johnnyappleseed on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 06:31:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Bucks County (none / 0)

This is dead on the money. Bucks County is a near perfect microcosm of the political change going on in suburban Philly over the last 25 years where the Republicans and Democrats are basically slowly switching sides. The historic Democratic strongholds in the 50s - 70s were the unions. Working class, rough around the edges, God-fearing, and socially and militarily pretty conservative - the "Reagan Democrats" or whatever you want to call them. The Republicans (in the Philly suburbs anyway - the Republicans in the Pennsyltucky region are hard core conservatives...) were generally what people used to call "Rockefeller Republicans" - upper middle class, economically moderate-to-conservative, and socially liberal. Over the last couple decades, they've been switching sides as the hard core wingnuts have taken over the GOP and made every election about abortion or gays or crap like that. The more conservative Democrats have been voting and registering Republican, while the moderate Rockefeller Republicans abandoned by the wingnut wing of the GOP have been voting and registering Democrat. These are what I now call "Patrick Murphy Democrats" because they elected him, and he fits this class to a T. The primary contest in this area ia old vs new. What's left of the old working class union base in Southern Bucks that hasn't been hoodwinked into becoming Republican to save America from the gays is Hillary's base, while the newer, upper middle class former Rockefeller Republicans in the Doylestown/Buckingham/New Hope area is Obama's base.

And PMM's region between Pittsburgh & Erie is Murtha's district, and should be HEAVILY pro-Clinton in the Dem primary (although not terribly vote-rich for her). Obama will never gain a foothold there. I work in center city Philly, and I assure you Obama supporters, the situation here is the mirror image of that that she describes in far NW PA, and that's DESPITE Hillary's endorsement by a very popular former mayor who is now governor and the very popular current mayor. The only difference being that there is less love for McCain as a 2nd choice.

NJ Hussein Independent

by NJIndependent on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 11:05:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Insider Advantage Poll : (2.00 / 1)

I grew up in a a very small rural town. those people voted for Reagan twice and he did nothing for working folks. HRC clearly has supported Nafta. Her husband supports Nafta, her husband and her campaign adviser Penn support the Columbia trade deal. Why on earth are rural working people voting for HRC because of "jobs"? I was in Upstate NY in 2k when HRC ran and I voted for her. She promised the voters that she was going to bring 100, 000 new jobs to the area. It never happened and when she was asked why (recently) she said she made that promise when she thought we would have a President Gore and not a President Bush. Yeah, she's a "fighter" alright. So, I guess my question for you is why are rural working folks voting for HRC? Do they really believe her promises? Are you aware that those who served as economic advisers for Bill Clinton's Presidency are working for and advising Obama? Do you really think HRC is going to bring jobs to Penn.?

by DrPolitics on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 04:30:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Insider Advantage Poll : (none / 0)

The truth??? The people I talk to DO believe Hillary, they remember the prosperity of the 90's.
They do NOT believe Obama.
Like it or not, nobody out here believes his "I don't take money from special interests" ad. We might be in the country, but we are not stupid. Voters here know what "bundling" is and to them, it IS special interest money.
Like it or not, they do not trust Obama and they do not believe he can win in the GE. They believe the Republicans are going to "chew him up and spit him out."
People here like Hillary. They see her still fighting for Universal Helath Care after all these years and respect her for not giving up or giving in. They believe she is the best chance we have for winning back the White House and getting this country back on track.

by ProudMilitaryMom on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 05:25:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Most probably an age thing (none / 0)

In general, if you are talking to older people than they are going to support Hillary. It also matters where you are, you are out in the Oil City area right? That's going to be Hillary country.

No Democrat is going to lose Pennsylvania in a General Election. Rendell and Nutter will turn out a 500,000 to 600,000 vote plurality in Philadelphia and the surrounding counties. Can't lose when the Philly metro area turns out like it has for Democrats for the last 10 years.

by johnnyappleseed on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 06:40:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Most probably an age thing (2.00 / 1)

I will not give out my location but will tell you no not Oil City.
As I said, I talk to many, many people. I work in a restaurant. Believe me when I tell you it is a very mixed group of folks I interact with. All ages, all races, all religions. I work with young and old, our customers come from every imaginable group. So no, I am not talking to mostly older people.
My daughter goes to college in Pittsburgh and as I replied to another comment I talk to her and her friends quite a bit. We IM each other frequently and text back and forth. NOT ONE single Obama sign on her campus or in her dorm. Neither she nor her friends know one person that went to Obama's rally (and it was not far from their school.) She and her friends know many, mnay students from other schools. What they tell me belies what the media would have us believe. Hillary's support is strong. She has many college students in the Pittsburgh market behind her.
I was very impressed at the level of sophistication she and her friends have regarding the race. They were particularly incensed at the Obama ads proclaiming he doesn't take money from special interests. Even the college students know what bundling is! They were calling and texting asking for links so they could explain it to their parents! (Which of course, I happily provided!)
When all is said and done, to the original point about polls- We just laugh at them here and wonder who the hell they are talking to because it sure isn't anybody any of us knows!
If the pollsters want an accurate picture, maybe they should get out in the towns and talk to people where they live.

by ProudMilitaryMom on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 08:39:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Most probably an age thing (none / 0)

Laugh. I live in Missouri and have yet to meet a Clinton supporter. But guess what, they basically tied here. Did you ever consider that people are not going to be as open about their political feelings as people like us are? Take my parents for example, they waited until the day of the primary to decide who to vote for.

My point is that purely antecdotal evidence proves nothing. If personal stories reflected reality then Obama would have won my state by 20%. Clinton will win PA, Obama will win NC, and the Indiana is probably a toss up. And we will probably still be here complaining to each other.

by Xris on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 09:15:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Insider Advantage Poll : (none / 0)

Actually, Clinton did a brilliant job at supporting the structure to create jobs in upstate New York as well as Western. A few things happened however. Connecticut dropped their taxes on new business endeavors really fast and a lot of the clusters of new research/technology etc. that were created failed to attract as much outside New York State investment as was anticipated. It did not help that Bush was or is in office spending huge amounts of money.

There were jobs created, but there was also a huge exodus of national guard and military staff from New York State. Both Clinton and Schumer have been incredibly effective advocates for getting care and support for these people. It also turns out that a lot of kids in just about every state don't want to settle down before they've seen the sites of Paris, you know? So let's not belittle the jobs that Clinton did create, because they mean quite a lot to those who have them.

John McCain is a liar. Erratic, poor judgment.

by Jeter on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 06:47:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama went to CA and told (1.50 / 2)

them not to worry, his anti-nafta talk was just campaign rhetoric.
Clinton is not/was not "clearly for NAFTA". Her stance is much more complicated than that, a fact rural people in PA can grasp even if you don't like it.

This is what it is, Clinton is authentic and Obama is an elitist phony. She is experienced, he is full of hot air. She is tough, he's just mean and dismissive using insults that are sexist and ageist written by his campaign staff. She is a hard worker and he spends his time avoiding votes and auditioning for his next job. She gets hit and stays standing, he pretends he has been hit and he hasn't even been touched yet.

People here don't like negative and they don't like entitled. They like people who earn what they get and Obama hasn't earned the right to run yet. "Hey buddy you are popular now, hit while the iron is hot" is not a winning rationale for being POTUS for the people of PA.

You can try and wish it away and twist Clinton's positions but if you really want to understand you have to stop lying about her to yourself. When you get to know her you might start to understand why she is winning in the big blue states. Continue to drink the blog Aid that convinces you she is all the bad things you think and you will never get it.
If you want to understand start listening to the people who like her and not those who hate her.
Or you can continue to think the haters are right, listen only to your endless playback loop and be taken by surprise over and over again when people do not act the way you think they should.

DON'T COUNT THE VOTES, DON'T COUNT THE VOTES.... Obama and the Obamaettes... spring 2008

by TeresaINPennsylvania on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 08:11:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama went to CA and told (none / 0)

Wow, I am not even sure if we are watching the same campaign. And people claim us Obama supporters are cult like.

by Xris on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 09:17:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama spending could hurt him (2.00 / 0)

He is spending an unprecedented amount of money in Penn. Breaking all records:

http://taylormarsh.com/archives_view.php ?id=27375

If he loses by double digits, I think this could expose a major, major weakness-the inability to woo "Reagan Dems" no matter how much money/effort. I think that would hurt a lot more than the net pop. vote/ delegates coming out of Penn (since he's likely to make some of that up in North Carolina).

by easyE on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 04:26:56 PM EST

Re: Obama spending could hurt him (2.00 / 2)

I agree if he loses they will spin his spending,

but I disagree that he is trying to buy PA, and Taylor Marsh is nothing but a Clinton partisan(nicest way I could put it)

is it Obama's fault Hillary doesn't have the funds to keep up?

also lets not forget Obama start 26 points behind, OFCOURSE he is going to have to spend like crazy if he thinks he wants to make up 21 points to get her win to only 5.

Obama said, as Bill beamed. "Thank you, President Clinton."

by TruthMatters on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 04:36:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

He has the money - he might as well spend it (2.00 / 1)

He will be the nominee and anything he spends in PA right now will at worst be seed money for the GE.

by johnnyappleseed on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 06:42:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: He has the money - he might as well spend it (2.00 / 1)

That's a generous portrayal of an issue the Obama campaign has been crowing about for quite some time. Besides oil company employees - two big oil CEOs are Obama bundlers - I want to know where his money is actually coming from. I know in Illinois and other states that African American owners of medium to large businesses are aggressively fundraising in the community for Obama.

Outside of the big name media execs and owners like Geffen, Oprah etc., I believe that despite the constantly pushed statement that it is all coming from small donations is a little misleading. The money that Obama is spending in a state that certainly appreciates his business and money is not going to have a lot of effect except maybe in Philly, where some people are actually afraid to say they support Clinton.

Hey, two million dollars is a lot of money for most people. We could win a couple of Senate seats with that. So, uh, seed money? Doesn't look especially good spending that much money, IMHO.

John McCain is a liar. Erratic, poor judgment.

by Jeter on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 07:11:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Seed money (none / 0)

Seed money for the General Election.

Obama is going to be the nominee and any dollar spent in PA now by Obama will have a benefit in November. Look at the ads he's running, they are not attacks on Hillary they are essentially introducing him Statewide. He is attacking Bush in the ads I saw, and by doing so he is helping Democrats across the Commonwealth.

If you want to know where Obama's money is coming from, all you have to do is wait and check out the FEC reports when they become available. It won't be a mystery.

And Obama is going to have huge fund raising coattails as well. His donor list has 1.5 million names on it already. He's going to spread that around to some Democratic challengers, he's no dummy.

by johnnyappleseed on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 07:53:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: He has the money - he might as well spend it (none / 0)

It's not like it's a secret where the money came from. You can look it up on the FEC's website http://www.fec.gov/disclosure.shtml or from the watchdog site opensecrets.org.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 09:14:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama spending could hurt him (none / 0)

"Obama start 26 points behind"

Cherry picking. You pick the poll he was at his lowest in to claim that where he really was at the time?

Yet, if someone points out the SUSA poll right now, they will be be told it's an outlier.

Here are the post Super Tuesday polls. Only one had him down 26 points TM. Don't be intellectually disingenuous. It makes the whole place stink. The most he was ever down in the RCP average was about 17. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democrati c_primary-240.html

InsiderAdvantage 04/08 - 04/08 681 LV 48 38 Clinton +10.0
PPP (D) 04/07 - 04/08 1124 LV 46 43 Clinton +3.0
Rasmussen 04/07 - 04/07 695 LV 48 43 Clinton +5.0
SurveyUSA 04/05 - 04/07 597 LV 56 38 Clinton +18.0
ARG* 04/05 - 04/06 600 LV 45 45 Tie
Strategic Vision (R) 04/04 - 04/06 LV 47 42 Clinton +5.0
Quinnipiac 04/03 - 04/06 1,340 LV 50 44 Clinton +6.0
Insider Advantage 04/02 - 04/02 659 LV 45 42 Clinton +3.0
Morning Call 03/27 - 04/02 406 LV 49 38 Clinton +11.0
PPP (D) 03/31 - 04/01 1224 LV 43 45 Obama +2.0
Rasmussen 03/31 - 03/31 730 LV 47 42 Clinton +5.0
SurveyUSA 03/29 - 03/31 588 LV 53 41 Clinton +12.0
Strategic Vision (R) 03/28 - 03/31 504 LV 49 41 Clinton +8.0
Quinnipiac 03/24 - 03/31 1549 LV 50 41 Clinton +9.0
ARG* 03/26 - 03/27 600 LV 51 39 Clinton +12.0
Rasmussen 03/24 - 03/24 690 LV 49 39 Clinton +10.0
PPP (D) 03/15 - 03/16 597 LV 56 30 Clinton +26.0
Franklin & Marshall 03/11 - 03/16 294 LV 51 35 Clinton +16.0
Quinnipiac 03/10 - 03/16 1304 LV 53 41 Clinton +12.0
Rasmussen 03/12 - 03/12 697 LV 51 38 Clinton +13.0
SurveyUSA 03/08 - 03/10 608 LV 55 36 Clinton +19.0
Susquehanna 03/05 - 03/10 500 LV 45 31 Clinton +14.0
Strategic Vision (R) 03/07 - 03/09 600 LV 56 38 Clinton +18.0
Rasmussen 03/05 - 03/05 690 LV 52 37 Clinton +15.0
Rasmussen 02/26 - 02/26 820 LV 46 42 Clinton +4.0
Quinnipiac 02/21 - 02/25 506 LV 49 43 Clinton +6.0
Franklin & Marshall 02/13 - 02/18 303 RV 44 32 Clinton +12.0
Morning Call 02/09 - 02/17 302 LV 45 31 Clinton +14.0
Quinnipiac 02/06 - 02/12 577 LV 52 36 Clinton +16.0

by reggie44pride on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 09:29:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

she rebounded C58-O38 a few days ago, check SUSA (none / 0)

Welcome to a Landslide without white Working class, Latinos, Women, Seniors and holding-on sweeties

by engels on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 04:42:45 PM EST

Re: Insider Advantage Poll : Clinton Rebounding in (2.00 / 0)

I think she wins my state (PA) by 12 points netting her around 15 pledged delegates...

I can see Lake Erie from where I live, so can I please run the Navy?

by hootie4170 on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 04:43:10 PM EST

Re: Insider Advantage Poll : Clinton Rebounding in (none / 0)

PsiFighter over at dKos did a district-by-district breakdown. He's predicting an 18-delegate net for Clinton, which breaks down to something like a 10 or 12 point win in popular vote.

If you're not boycotting the orange satan, you can read it here. It's really good stuff.

I'm perfectly okay with polls showing 18- and 20-point spreads for Clinton. In fact, I wish there were more of them, so if Obama DOES lose by 10, we can declare it a big moral victory. :)

by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 04:51:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Insider Advantage Poll : Clinton Rebounding in (none / 0)

I agree, her campaign is spinning it now that he needs to win PA, if he loses by single digits it will be a moral victory for him. He will pick up all lost delegates in NC.

I can see Lake Erie from where I live, so can I please run the Navy?

by hootie4170 on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 05:01:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Insider (none / 0)

Obama's campaign has predicted a 5 pt. loss in PA on their spreadsheet. Anything more is bad news for him.

No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!

by Ga6thDem on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 05:04:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Insider (none / 0)

It may be bad news, but anything between 5 & 15% doesn't hurt his lead, as it will be made up in NC.

by bawbie on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 05:51:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

pledged delegates are not all important (none / 0)

anymore. It is all about popular vote and who can win the big states.

DON'T COUNT THE VOTES, DON'T COUNT THE VOTES.... Obama and the Obamaettes... spring 2008

by TeresaINPennsylvania on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 08:15:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: pledged delegates are not all important (none / 0)

did the democratic party decide to change how the nominee is decided? Or did a bunch of you Clinton supporters get together and decide to just change the goal post?

by Xris on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 09:19:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Insider Advantage Poll : Clinton Rebounding in (none / 0)

And who cares if he is spending all this money, isn't that the goal of all campaigns to raise funds to be used in elections. Clinton would be doing the same thing if she had the finances. What a joke!

I can see Lake Erie from where I live, so can I please run the Navy?

by hootie4170 on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 04:45:54 PM EST

Re: Insider Advantage Poll : Clinton Rebounding in (none / 0)

I say we rec this thin diary . . . and any other that shows HRC gaining in PA. The MSM should keep playing up that HRC is a huge favorite in PA.

NO 100 year WAR, NO McConnell run Senate, & NO GOP-led Supreme Court!!!

by Veteran75 on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 04:51:41 PM EST

Re: Insider Advantage Poll : Clinton Rebounding in (none / 0)

indeed, the HRC campaign has already started saying its a wonder they still lead after how much he has spent.

they know it will be close and want to lower the expectations AGAIN.

quick someone get ALL the quotes of them saying it was going to be huge and their surrogates saying it.

we have to stop letting them move the goal posts, those damn things move so much I don't even know where they are anymore.

Think of the poor kicker!

Obama said, as Bill beamed. "Thank you, President Clinton."

by TruthMatters on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 04:55:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Insider Advantage Poll : Clinton Rebounding in (none / 0)

Rec'd !

;o)

NO 100 year WAR, NO McConnell run Senate, & NO GOP-led Supreme Court!!!

by Veteran75 on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 04:59:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Predictable, like robots (none / 0)

What a predictable thread of comments from both sides.

by reggie44pride on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 05:08:25 PM EST

Re: Insider Advantage Poll : Clinton Rebounding in (none / 0)

I don't doubt a 10 point race at this point, but I do doubt a one-day poll. That's just not kosher in the polling business.

It's certainly possible that some of the soft support slipped back to Clinton because voters haven't been thinking about Tuzla, etc. so much lately. She is the default for voters who don't pay a whole lot of attention to politics. But there are two weeks left and Obama will be touring PA again. At that point I suspect he'll get another boost.

by elrod on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 05:27:34 PM EST

Re: Insider Advantage Poll (2.00 / 3)

As a lifelong Ohioan and Democrat, I knew many months before our primary that Hillary would easily win this state. The demographics are very much hers.

That is also true of neighboring Pennsylvania, whose western side my extended family visits regularly.

SUSA has been, bar none, the most reliable pollster all year. They were spot-on in Ohio, when most pollsters, even on election eve, predicted a much closer race.

Expect Hillary to carry Pennsylvania by at least as much as she did in Ohio. As to the Rendell expectations, it is only natural to downplay.

As to CNN and Zogby-related polling--they have been, like ARG, dreadful all year.

Most pollsters have been blatantly in the Obama camp, like most pundits. This is the pollster crowd which predicted Hillary a double-digits loser in New Hampshire on the eve of that primary. This is the crowd that thought Obama was surging in California--and he lost there big-time. And this is the crowd that never for a second thought Hillary would prevail in three of four primaries on March 4--and only SUSA accurately predicted a double digit Clinton blow-out in Ohio.

As a result, nobody but the Obama camp believes what most pollsters say any longer. After all, pollsters, like pundits, haven't yet achieved their #1 objective of the 2008 Election Cycle--killing off the Clintons.

They are now desperate to make that happen, because Hillary will not only carry Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico--but she will be well within one hundred delegates going into the convention.

And she can clearly state the obvious: she has won where Democrats absolutely need to win, whereas Obama has won largely in Red State America, which is going to remain Red come the fall.

Obama never was, and never shall be, the candidate of bedrock Democrats--save, of course, for the naturally proud African-Americans.

The working class, blue collar, older Americans, and most other ethnics have been solidly behind the Clintons from the start. They adore them, and always have, even though the MSM and pundits--and the Obamas folk--loathe them with a passion.

Bottom line: my four generation Democrat family--never having voted any other way--is going for McCain if Obama is the nominee. We believe McCain has been far more respectful of the Clintons than ever was Senator Obama.

We love our Clintons. We're Democrats. And we don't want our party trashing them. Hillary is our hope, and whereas pundits and pollsters long ago wrote her off, we know better.

The Clintons overcome all the odds, whatever the odds. They endure and they prevail. Which makes us love them all the more.

by lambros on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 05:33:55 PM EST

Re: Insider Advantage Poll (none / 0)

"We love our Clintons. We're Democrats. And we don't want our party trashing them."

To me, that is an odd way to be a Democrat. You are more like Clintonites than Democrats if you would vote for a Republican if some other Democrat wins the nomination.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 06:51:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It's sad that (none / 0)

many of the male Clinton supporters that I know are voting for Bill Clinton and the nineties. They think they are getting Bill through Hillary, and to some extent they're right. In fact, until I got to know Obama better, I was voting for Bill, too.

It's sad because she and her supporters are under the impression that her success thus far has been achieved all on her own (you know, like Gwyneth Paltrow and Tori Spelling became stars all on their own), and it's sad that the people voting are voting for her husband.

by MikeyB on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 08:40:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Don't know for sure (2.00 / 1)

We will have to see on April 22, let the voters decide.

Also Obama just had a blanket bomb of airtime ads for the unprecedented amount of $2.2 million. I think it can be quite effective since voters turn off TV or turn down volume every time Obama ads comes up.

by JoeySky18 on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 06:32:22 PM EST

Pushing polls (none / 0)

Personally, I think the media, especially MSNBC has pushed the polls. To me, "news" is nothing more than a bunch of over-paid talking heads trying to push through their personal political preferences/agendas, that are for the most part, pro-Obama.

In reference to your poll, good for Clinton but I'm more cynical now than ever before. Whether Clinton wins or loses, I will never look at the media in the same light and that's pretty bad because I already had a negative opinion in reference to cable news.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV-VNhxbm _o

by soyousay on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 07:47:39 PM EST

If Hillary doesn't win by >15% in (none / 0)

Pennsylvania than the MSM will spin this as a loss.

by puma on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 08:12:07 PM EST

Re: Insider Advantage Poll : Clinton Rebounding in (2.00 / 1)

I live in Philadelphia and I don't know anyone backing Obama who wasn't already a progressive activist. (Hint - they're outnumbered.) I did see one Obama sign in my densely-populated neighborhood.

I keep asking people if they know anyone backing Obama and they look at me like I'm crazy. It also helps Clinton that the popular Mayor Nutter (who said he'd walk out of a church if he heard a sermon like Rev. Wright's) has a new ad talking about why he wants her. The Pittsburgh mayor is backing her, too.

The Rev. Wright controversy will play a big part in Pennsylvania. That's not going away, no matter what pollsters say.

by Susie from Philly on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 09:06:56 PM EST

Re: Insider Advantage Poll : Clinton Rebounding in (none / 0)

uh, pollsters report what people think they don't make up the results...bah forget it there is no point

by Xris on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 09:21:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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