Just over a week ago, I suggested that the race, after having tipped Obama's way slightly, was correcting back to what was essentially a tie as it has often done in the absence of a primary to shift momentum one candidate's way or the other. And for a day or two it seemed to do just that. But over the past few days, Obama seems to have reversed that trend as he's re-opened impressive leads in the daily tracking polls.
Obama 51 (52, 49, 49...)
Clinton 43 (43, 46, 44...)
Obama 50 (51, 51, 50...)
Clinton 41 (40, 41, 42...)
It's rare for these two polls to be in such agreement and one has to think that it's a function of several bad news days for the Clinton campaign. But the suggestion that something else is at play has been creeping into coverage of the primary.
On the tightening Pennsylvania race, PA native Howard Fineman recently said:
The other thing is I think the Democrats -- and even Democrat voters out there who are not strategists or superdelegates, but just voters -- may be beginning to worry about the length of the campaign, may be beginning to worry about the attacks back and forth. In Pennsylvania, the voters have the privilege -- if they want to -- of making the final decision: Do you want the thing to end now, or do you want it to go on?
And then this from PPP's analysis of its latest North Carolina poll in which Obama holds a 21 point lead:
One reason may be that Democratic voters want the nomination contest to be over. 43% of likely voters said they were concerned that the drawn out campaign between Clinton and Obama would hurt Democratic prospects this fall. Within that group, Obama has a 29 point lead, which could be an indication that some folks are moving toward his camp because they see a decisive victory for him as a way to end the infighting and shift the focus to John McCain.
It's an interesting thought. Certainly the Clintons have used the idea that primaries were make or break for Hillary to their advantage and her victories in New Hampshire, Ohio and Texas were largely seen as proxy votes for the primary race to continue. But that can cut both ways. Is primary fatigue working against Clinton now?
It's hard to say but by the looks of two of the most recent polls out of Pennsylvania, it looks like voters there aren't near ready for this to be over.
| Candidate | PPP 4/7-8 (3/31-4/1) | Survey USA 4/5-7 (3/29-31) |
| Clinton | 46 (43) | 56 (53) |
| Obama | 43 (45) | 38 (41) |
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