Obama, Clinton campaigns in wild and wonderful WV

I wrote earlier at MyDD about the contradictory nature of West Virginia and the West Virginia presidential primary race.

Yesterday provided a great example.

In my earlier post

West Virginia is a state of contradictions. Take the Eastern Panhandle, where one of the fastest growing counties in the country is located. It has become an outer suburb of Washington, D.C., with large McMansions built not far from dilapidated house trailers. Or McDowell County, the core of Appalachia. If any county fits the stereotypical view, it is McDowell. Yet it is the home of State Del. Clif Moore, an African American and a defender of a bill to extend anti-discrimination protection to gay people.

And a state that touts its natural beauty also is busy allowing the coal companies to literally destroy the mountains and hollows, using more explosive force than was used at Hiroshima through mountaintop removal.

To continue forward with the contradictory nature of the state,  polls consistently have showed Sen. Hillary Clinton with a commanding lead if she faced John McCain in the general and against Sen. Barack Obama in the primary. Yet two of the state's biggest political names, Sen. Jay Rockefeller and Rep. Nick Rahall have endorsed Barack Obama and the grassroots support has seemed to consistently favor Obama (here's one example).

While Obama is trailing in all of the polls in West Virginia by a large margin, the Obama supporters appear to be more active than the Sen. Hillary Clinton supporters. Whether that will translate into an Obama win in the primary is doubtful, but if Obama is the nominee it will give him a better ramp up for the general election race than Al Gore or John Kerry had since their races were decided long before the West Virginia primary mattered.

The West Virginia Democratic county conventions are on April 12. It's a new and confusing process to many to pick delegates to the state convention in Charleston.

The West Virginia Democratic Party has done a solid job of informing Democrats statewide of the convention process through emails, news releases and state party field workers.

The state party also has been sending out emails of organizing meetings and events for both parties.

Chelsea Clinton appeared in West Virginia on Saturday for three campaign events, including guest speaker at the West Virginia Young Democrats Convention.

Here's an excerpt of the coverage from Huntington:

Huntington, WV (HNN) - A poised, relaxed former First Daughter spent approximately 75 minutes answering questions from Marshall University student and community members. Unlike many speakers on behalf of candidates, Chelsea Clinton delivered specific and technical answers, rather than simple generalities.

Here's from her appearance at WVU Tech:

- A second President Clinton, she said, would "immediately start greening" the federal government - making government buildings and operations more environmentally friendly and creating jobs in the process - and ultimately cutting emissions 20 to 30 percent.

- On the country's future energy use, she said there is an "abundance of incredible natural resources (including coal) in our country." More emphasis must be placed on developing clean-burning coal. Her mother, she added, would "take away tax breaks" given in 2005 to energy companies and install a "windfall profits tax."

Here's from her final event at the West Virginia Young Democrats convention:

Chelsea Clinton ended a whole day in the Mountain State on Friday talking bread-and-butter issues with a crowd at the Charleston Civic Center, in support of her mother's presidential campaign.

At the kickoff of the West Virginia Young Democrats convention, the 28-year-old Clinton said that she's very proud of her father, the nation's 42nd president, but thinks her mother would be better in the job.

"She's more prepared than he was," she said of her mother, Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y.

snip

Travis Mollohan, a district coordinator for the Young Democrats, said he was somewhat disappointed in the event's turnout of about 130 people.

"I had hoped to see more young people here," he said. "That may [be due] to the fact that more young people are committed to Obama."

The organization reached out to both campaigns, but Clinton's visit logistically worked out for the start of the convention, said Young Democrats President Rod Snyder.

"[Chelsea Clinton] is one of the most visible young Democrats in the country," he said. "Everyone's excited, regardless of who they're supporting."

Snyder, whose father former State Sen. Herb Snyder is seeking to regain an office he held previously, really nailed it with this:

He said the close Democratic primary race is energizing the party, especially young Democrats.

Meanwhile, the Obama supporters held a dozen meetings across the state for organizing efforts for the May 13 primary. Another half dozen other upcoming meetings are on the schedule.

For the record, I'll support whoever the Democratic nominee is.

I attended the Obama meetup yesterday in Martinsburg where a group of of Obama grassroots supporters have met for the past eight weeks. I've canvassed with several of Obama's supporters in past elections.

There were 30 people there for the two hour meeting on a sunny spring day.

The new regional field director from the Obama campaign introduced herself. She's a West Virginia native who worked as a Peace Corps volunteer in Bulgaria.

Since there were new faces - myself included - at the meeting, they had people introduce themselves and explain why they supported Obama.

I wrote down a few of their words and will include a bit of demographic information about the speaker for identification purposes.

"The America I came home to is a country so different. I'm here to take back my country," a white female in her 30s who lived in London from 2000-2003.

"He seems to keep everything on a positive note," a retired white man from Martinsburg, who so far has volunteered in four states for Obama, including Texas.

"I remember FDR. He was my hero growing up. I remember JFK. He was my children's hero growing up.... I think Barack Obama would make a wonderful president," a retired nurse, white female.

"My wife was killed in the Pentagon on 9/11," a middleaged white man, who said the federal government squandered the unity to go after those responsible. I had trouble writing down everything he said because it was touching.

"In the beginning I was for Clinton, but things aren't going so well. I don't like where the campaign is going. I want to know more about Obama," older white woman.

"He's got all the right ideas," a middleaged white woman and canvassing buddy who was a former Dennis Kucinich supporter.

"Hillary always says, 'I will do this. I will do that.' But Barack always says, 'We will do this,'" a middleaged white male and husband of my canvassing buddy, who also described himself as a yellow-dog Democrat.

My blogmate Clem does an excellent job explaining the West Virginia Democratic primary process.

One final thought... if this process seems kindof sortof messed up to you... you know, like the fact that the delegate count could end up being a rather inexact reflection of the popular vote... two things to keep in mind:

(1) These were the rules everyone knew about at the beginning of the process... there were no strong voices advocating for more little "d" democracry inside the W.Va. Democratic party before this nominating process started. If it bothers you, start voicing your concerns immediately after election day to change how things happen next time around.

(2) No one expected the W.Va. primary outcome to matter when these rules were put together. The rules were drafted  with a major concern about who gets to attend the convention instead of who they represent once they get there.

He also breaks down the math in a separate post to explain that even if Clinton runs away with the West Virginia primary vote, she'll most likely still pick up either 0 or 2 delegates.

The W.Va. delegate plan requires a victory of more than 58.3% of the vote in a single congressional district for a two delegate margin in a congressional district. A state-wide vote total of 55% or more is needed to pick-up a two delegate at-large advantage.

At this point, I give the Clinton 15 Obama 13 scenario a 70% likelihood of occurring with the remaining 30% being a 14-14 delegate tie.

Don't forget upcoming events:

April 12, 2008 : County Democratic Conventions in each county to elect Delegates to the State Convention. All Democrats welcome in their respective county. Call your County Chair or the State Party (304) 342-8121 for location information.
...
April 22, 2008 : Last Day to Register to Vote in the Primary Election.

April 23, 2008 : Early Voting Begins

May 13, 2008 : PRIMARY ELECTION



Display:


Re: Obama, Clinton campaigns in wild and wonderful (2.00 / 2)

West Virginia votes are going to show us a wonderful surprise as far as the advancement of race in this country.

However, the main thing that West Virginians are concerned about is Amtrak funding. McCain slashed the funding for the only mode of transportation out of Appalacia, (SP?) and this will reverberate once we see the general election take shape.

McCain's fight against Amtrak is going to disable the GOP in former Dixiecrat states.


I will vote for Barack, I will vote for Hillary, I will vote for Obaminton or Clintobama, how about you? Thanks to AnyDem for the signature.
by BeThatBrighterDay on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 12:44:21 PM EST

Amtrak (2.00 / 1)

Thank you for your observation.  Sometimes we get tunnel visioned -- it never dawned on me how important Amtrak is to that region.  I am aware of the issues related to the Northeast - Southeast corridor, which are bad enough.  


by gchaucer2 on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:01:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama, Clinton campaigns in wild and wonderful (2.00 / 3)

I was born and raised in West Virginia and my entire family lives there.

Not once have I ever heard anyone in my family discuss Amtrack. I think the closest station to my house was in Pittsburgh.

More important issues will be coal, trade, guns, healthcare, religion, unions, and to a lesser extent social issues like abortion and gay rights.


by DirkPitt on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 03:14:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I think Obama represents the corporate (none / 0)

and the more naive young, and Hillary represents real people and addresses their concerns..

Obama's bringing on Jim Cooper as his healthcare guy brought in a lot of his money, I bet.. read this from 1994:

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.ht ml?res=9B00EEDD1431F93AA25757C0A96295826 0&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=all


http://www.thisamericanlife.org/Radio_Ep isode.aspx?sched=1242
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Listen to NPR's The Giant Pool of Money
by architek on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 12:48:31 PM EST

i can't stand his bipartisanshit (none / 0)

because it is all one big fairy tale. I cannot believe he is pandering to people who ruined health care. People like Cooper are why healthcare didn't get thru. They didn't march in lockstep like they shoulda.


"there is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured by what is right in America"-William Jefferson Clinton, forty-second President of the United States
by DiamondJay on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:03:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: i can't stand his bipartisanshit (none / 0)

People like Cooper are the reason healthcare didn't get through?  I believe it is the consensus that the failure lies at the feet of Sen. Clinton.


by gchaucer2 on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:07:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

right, (none / 0)

but the problem was the when Clinton proposed it, every single Democrat should have been exactly and ONLY for WILLIAM JEFFERSON CLINTON'S healthcare plan, not anything else. Cooper obviously wasn't. We need to be a lockstep party, and Cooper didn't follow.


"there is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured by what is right in America"-William Jefferson Clinton, forty-second President of the United States
by DiamondJay on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:39:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I think Obama represents the corporate (2.00 / 1)

I love references to 14 year old newspaper articles.  Primary source for where people are on issues in 2008.

Please provide a link for your assertion that Cooper brought in a lot of his money.  What does that mean, exactly?


by gchaucer2 on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:05:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I think Obama represents the corporate (2.00 / 1)

I feel like I'm real people and I support Obama. You should look at some of the photos posted at times that include older people supporting Obama. It's every kind of person. Because we really admire and respect him.


by Becky G on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:14:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I think Obama represents the corporate (1.00 / 1)

I am an Independent currently living in WV and will vote for Obama on May 13. However, I believe Clinton will win the state by margins similar to that of Arkansas because WV is less educated than most states and Hillary appeals to the lowest common denominator. Yes, there are probably plenty of young , naive folk too, but I'd bet that they also will vote for Clinton. Hence, the large victory for Clinton in WV.

Unfortunately, Obama sometimes speaks over people's heads (but not as bad as Kerry or the old Gore).


by tomanderson13 on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 02:24:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I think Obama represents the corporate (2.00 / 1)

Cooper's successful in a demographically similar area. He gets a lot of the same type of voter that Clinton is getting in WV polling.

Both of the candidates get a lot of corporate backing and neither has any monopoly on 'real' people', which is in any case a piece of framing I'd really implore you to avoid.


Visit Forgotten Countries, my new foreign policy-based blog
by Englishlefty on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 02:25:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

West Virginia Memories (2.00 / 3)

In 1968, I drove to West Virginia (from Boston), to visit a college friend. Upon entering the hill country I couldn't help but notice two startling sights. On was the many barns that had "Impeach Warren" painted on their sides facing the road. The other was the tops of so many small mountains had been literally sheared off flat by the coal industry.
I admit I was pretty scared at how an "eastern Liberal" like me would be treated. I never should have worried. The folks I met were the friendliest and most hospitable I'd ever met. They really would give you the coat off their back if they thought you were chilly. And they loved to invite you in for food, even though many were unemployed and living on tight budgets themselves. They'd put out the best food they had, and several of the women gave me terrific recipes for they yummy food they had offered at their table.
They were truly the salt of the earth.
Let the children lose it Let the children use it Let all the children boogie
by toyomama on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 12:56:53 PM EST

let us not forget (2.00 / 2)

West Virginia went for Bill Clinton twice in very large margins both times. So I think Obama will pull a big upset if he can win or get close.


"there is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured by what is right in America"-William Jefferson Clinton, forty-second President of the United States
by DiamondJay on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:01:50 PM EST

Re: let us not forget (2.00 / 1)

West Virginia Democrats control four of five Congressional seats, governor's mansion, attorney general, house of delegates, and state senate. The Democratic candidate can win here.


by Carnacki on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:11:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Why did Bush carry it twice tho? (none / 0)

which means there was something Kerry and Gore couldn't do. If Gore had carried it, which Clinton did by HUGE margins as in 1992 he got 48-35, and 1996 he got 51-36, Gore would have been President. There is obvi something we must tweak.


"there is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured by what is right in America"-William Jefferson Clinton, forty-second President of the United States
by DiamondJay on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:44:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Jay (2.00 / 2)

Many of us here think Gore took the state for granted as a win in 00 and Kerry was killed by the slow response to the swiftboat campaign, which really played well out here.


by Carnacki on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 02:08:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Jay (none / 0)

http://uselectionatlas.org/INFORMATION/A RTICLES/20041013NYT_WV.html this may be a guide of what Obama can avoid. The swing from Clinton twice to Bush twice is very disturbing.


"there is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured by what is right in America"-William Jefferson Clinton, forty-second President of the United States
by DiamondJay on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 02:34:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why did Bush carry it twice tho? (2.00 / 3)

My experience living in WV during 2000 was that Gore lost partially because he took it for granted and Bush/Cheney hit the steel dumping issue hard.

There were also radio ads from Charlton Heston saying that Al Gore and Janet Reno wanted to take your guns away and the Gore campaign never effectively responded back.

As for Kerry, the Swift Boat attacks worked well plus he didn't really fit in well in West Virginia. The caricature of him as a New England elite who never worked a day of hard labor in his life doesn't play well in WV. The Bush campaign understood the dynamics of WV and played them well. There is a reason Bush has come to WV for 4th of July every year for the past several years.


by DirkPitt on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 03:19:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama, Clinton campaigns in wild and wonderful (2.00 / 2)

Nice.  Made me want to visit the state.  Thank you.


by mady on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:07:03 PM EST

wild and wonderful (2.00 / 1)

Meant to give you this link to West Virginia tourism.


by Carnacki on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:21:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Wild and wonderful (2.00 / 1)

Always happy to pimp West Virginia tourism.


by Carnacki on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:18:52 PM EST

Re: Obama, Clinton campaigns in WV (2.00 / 1)

What a great post. I honestly know nothing about West Virginia and had followed the media's analysis that it was all but Clinton's. Sounds like there's a real race to be watched out there.


Voting for John McCain is not God bless America.
by SFValues on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:42:53 PM EST

SFValues (2.00 / 1)

Thanks.


by Carnacki on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 02:11:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama, Clinton campaigns in wild and wonderful (none / 0)

Due to the way statewide delegates are allocated, Clinton should easily get at least a 15-13 split out of West Virginia.  

There are 7 delegates distributed at-large and 3 that are PLEO (pledged party leaders and elected officials).  Clinton is virtually assured of splitting the at-large delegates 4-3 and the PLEO 2-1, for 6-4 statewide.

That leaves 18 delegates by district, six for each one.  Clinton needs to break 58% in a district to make it 4-2 instead of just splitting it 3-3.  She may get close in a couple, but I'd be surprised if she manages to actually win by enough to net any delegates out of the district distributed ones.


by Skaje on Mon Apr 07, 2008 at 03:39:28 AM EST

When I can complain (none / 0)

"My blogmate Clem does an excellent job explaining the West Virginia Democratic primary process:

'if this process seems kindof sortof messed up to you... you know, like the fact that the delegate count could end up being a rather inexact reflection of the popular vote. . . start voicing your concerns immediately after election day to change how things happen next time around.'"

With all due respect to you and your blogmate Clem, I think the delegate apportionment rules are ridiculous, and I see no reason why I should have to wait until after the election to say so.


by freemansfarm on Mon Apr 07, 2008 at 09:10:50 AM EST


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