MyDD :: Clinton Leads in 4 of 5 Upcoming Primaries

Clinton Leads in 4 of 5 Upcoming Primaries

by steve468, Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 01:39:35 PM EST

Clinton is leading in 4 of the 5 upcoming primaries scheduled for between April 22 and May 20th. Depending on which poll you wish to wager on and the polling numbers you confide in, her lead appears to be consistent so far in the 4 states in which she is ahead. Note that polling has changed often in these contests and should be considered with a grain of salt. However, it does look good at this time for Hillary in those states.

IN PA: Clinton is ahead by an average of 9.5% from 10 polling samplings taken within the last two weeks. If Ohio is any indication with respect to accurate polling, it would seem appropriate to assume that HC will win this state by similar numbers as Ohio, anywhere from 10% or above.
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/pen nsylvania.html

IN INDIANA: Clinton is ahead by an average of 6% from the two polls recently taken. She is spending a considerable amount of time campaigning in this state and has the endorsement of Senator/Former Governor Evan Bayh and Former Representative Brademas of South Bend. She is also favored by the majority of local elected officials in the state.
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/ind iana.html

IN WEST VIRGINIA: Clinton is ahead by 28% in the only polling taken last month. Hillary has always been favored to win this state due to its significant working class population, a demographic that heavily favors her.
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/wes t-virginia.html

IN KENTUCKY: Clinton is ahead by 29% in polling released last month. This is another state that heavily favors Clinton.
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/ken tucky.html

Poll

Votes: 93
Results : Vote Link : Polls

Tags: Clinton, Obama, Primary, Pennsylvania, Indiana, West Virginia, North Carolina, Kentucky (all tags)

Permalink :: 99 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Clinton Leads in 4 of 5 Upcoming Primaries (2.00 / 3)

the MSM will do its best to try and make Hillary unelectable - by counting her out and stating she doesn't have a prayer.

By these poll numbers, it looks like the MSM's plan isn't working very well. For a candidate that is supposed to be "toast", seems to me that she has a lot of support.

I wish the MSM would have done this type of "vetting" on the lead-up to the Iraq War, instead of rolling over & kissing Bush's behind.

Well, on the other hand, I think they did do this type of "vetting". They just took the wrong side.

by colebiancardi on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 01:46:34 PM EST

Re: Clinton Leads in 4 of 5 Upcoming Primaries (2.00 / 2)

You a valid point there. The media pundits and leading Democrats like Pelosi and Dean are trying to end the race, when it is so obvious that the momentum is in Hillary's camp. What is it they are so afraid of?,That maybe a women might get elected President? If Hillary wins these states that I mentioned as well as S.D., Montana and P.R. which also are very competitive for her, then how in world can you argue that she is "toast" as you mentioned. I don't know how they think they can get away with disenfranchising the voters of Michigan and Florida, or refuse to seat those delegates, and expect to win those states in November. Hillary won those states convincingly. It was Obama who withdrew his name from contention in Michigan, and his name was on the ballot in Florida, so to cry that these states shouldn't count is nothing more than stonewalling the will of those voters to his liking. And he calls himself a man of "Change" PLEASE!

Steven Shaman Publisher Skywatch-Media News

by steve468 on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 01:57:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Leads in 4 of 5 Upcoming Primaries (none / 0)

True, most of the remaining states lean Clinton, but how many pledged delegates will she win? Will it be enough to catch or pass Obama. That is the question that needs to be asked.

by nrioq on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 02:09:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama cannot win enough pledged delegates (none / 0)

Thus, since Hillary is the only candidate who can win against McCain in November, Obama should seriously consider dropping out now before he does more damage to our general election candidate. ;-)

by macmcd on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 04:31:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Leads in 4 of 5 Upcoming Primaries (none / 0)

The awnser is no

LOOk http://www.slate.com/id/2185278/

It's time to restore balance and fairness to our economy,... It's time to stop giving tax cuts to corporations that ship jobs overseas... - Barack Obama

by Lefty Coaster on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 06:13:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

at this point (none / 0)

pledged delegates will not decide the race. Sorry, but Obama can't get enough either. Since pledged delegates are not assigned in proportion to the vote, so it hardly matters anyway.
Popular vote, including MI and FL and all the upcoming states and who can win blue states and swing states will be the criteria any SD takes in to consideration if they are to do their job right.

DON'T COUNT THE VOTES, DON'T COUNT THE VOTES.... Obama and the Obamaettes... spring 2008

by TeresaINPennsylvania on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 07:00:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Hillary has the momentum? (none / 0)

On what planet?

by Mystylplx on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 02:32:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary has the momentum? (none / 0)

Of course she does! That's why she won crushing victories in Wyoming and Mississippi!

Because we all know, according to Senator Clinton, that when one candidate has one some primaries, and then another candidate wins some, it means "voters are having second thoughts."

Right? She said that. It must be accurate.

by Rorgg on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 02:47:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It's unfortunate... (1.50 / 2)

...but it increasingly seems that Hillary Clinton is no longer running for President of the United States--she's now running for President of Fantasyland.

In Fantasyland her vote for the war really was a vote for peace.

In Fantasyland it is possible to "take responsibility" for a mistake without admitting a mistake was made.

In Fantasyland she really does have 35 years experience and Barack Obama really is naive and inexperienced.

In Fantasyland committed delagates don't count and the nomination process will be decided by superdelegates.

In Fantasyland she "has the momentum."

In Fantasyland she really is inevitable.

by Mystylplx on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 03:36:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's unfortunate... (none / 0)

Actually I think it's called Barbies Dream World.

by lion king on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 06:08:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's unfortunate... (none / 0)

It's called HIllayland, where the most delusional are admired.

It's time to restore balance and fairness to our economy,... It's time to stop giving tax cuts to corporations that ship jobs overseas... - Barack Obama

by Lefty Coaster on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 06:16:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Oh yeah... (1.50 / 2)

...In Fantasyland she really did duck and run under sniper fire.

by Mystylplx on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 03:36:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

earth (2.00 / 2)

earth likes her too, cause she's into saving it.

Hillary - alternative energy

by anna shane on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 03:36:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: earth (2.00 / 1)

Earth likes Obama better.

by Mystylplx on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 03:37:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Leads in 4 of 5 Upcoming Primaries (none / 0)

This is now your third diary in one day, all on the same subject. Just so you know the definition of insanity is to repeat the same action over and over again and expect a different result.

by lion king on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 06:12:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

oh dear (none / 0)

you are such a scary Lion with your little insults. Meow

DON'T COUNT THE VOTES, DON'T COUNT THE VOTES.... Obama and the Obamaettes... spring 2008

by TeresaINPennsylvania on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 07:02:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Good story (none / 0)

Only OR votes on the same day as KY. so it should be 4 of 6

Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!

by Student Guy on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 01:48:07 PM EST

Re: Good story (1.50 / 2)

Oregon doesn't count

Voting for John McCain is not God bless America.

by SFValues on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 01:51:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Good story (2.00 / 3)

Hillary is in Portland right now before a huge and very enthusiastic crowd. BTW, I wouldn't count her out by any stretch of the imagination in Oregon, they vote by mail there, a process in which she does very well.

Steven Shaman Publisher Skywatch-Media News

by steve468 on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 02:00:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Good story (1.00 / 1)

What did she fill the high school cafeteria to capacity?? Impressive.

by lion king on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 02:05:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Good story (none / 0)

Don't forget the crowds Obama got in NH, OH, TX, CA,NM and other places. Somehow his large crowds to HRC very, very, very, small crowds of 2000 or less still didn't win him those states. And, oh yes, how could I forget MA with Kerry and Kennedy who voted exactly like Clinton on the war standing by his side amidst humongous crowds and he still got creamed.

"The Bumble Bee flies because it thinks it can."

by LadyEagle on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 08:09:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Good story (2.00 / 0)

2000 people. Have respect for yourself.

McCain: The Past, Obama: The Future

by KathyM on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 02:58:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Good story (none / 0)

A process she does very well at?

Huh?

I don't believe there have been any states that have voted by mail yet...

by bawbie on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 05:45:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Good story (none / 0)

Next door to Oregon in Washigton Hillary won ZERO counties.

Next door to Oregon in Idaho Hillary won ONE county.

Hillary will be lucky to crack 40% in Oregon.

It's time to restore balance and fairness to our economy,... It's time to stop giving tax cuts to corporations that ship jobs overseas... - Barack Obama

by Lefty Coaster on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 06:21:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Leads in 4 of 5 Upcoming Primaries (none / 0)

Anybody have a projection of how many delegates Clinton is likely to pick up?

by nrioq on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 01:49:15 PM EST

Re: Clinton Leads in 4 of 5 Upcoming Primaries (2.00 / 1)

The correct answer is: not nearly enough.

I just flipped off President George, I'm going to Disneyland

by alvernon on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 01:51:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Leads in 4 of 5 Upcoming Primaries (2.00 / 1)

The correct answer is: The delegate debate is over, Supers will decide

Steven Shaman Publisher Skywatch-Media News

by steve468 on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 02:04:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Leads in 4 of 5 Upcoming Primaries (2.00 / 1)

So now the delegate debate is over? If it's over then why continue voting? Why are you talking bout polls in the remaining states if they don't matter since the delegate debate is over?

by lion king on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 02:07:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Leads in 4 of 5 Upcoming Primaries (2.00 / 2)

Let me refresh you. The Asociated Press has already declared that the nomination will be decided by Super Delegates. The primary thing that counts in these remaining contests is to persuade those supers on who is more electable, especially in swing states like Pennsylvania. If Hillary can win the majority of these remaining contests, which at this point looks very good for her, including South Dakota and Montana, which someone previously discounted, then momentum will matter at the end of these contests.

It is not just about who has the most delegates, since the difference is minimal, it is about who can carry the mantle going forward. Obama hasn't done a convincing job of this, it he had this race would have been wrapped up long ago. It's now April and Democrats still don't have a winner. Why hasn't Obama closed the deal? That is the big question, not about who can win the most delegates or most states. Supers will look at many factors before making their decision, and to think that Obama has the upper hand for a slam dunk, is ludicrous.

Steven Shaman Publisher Skywatch-Media News

by steve468 on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 02:19:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Leads in 4 of 5 Upcoming Primaries (2.00 / 1)

So the A.P has decided the race???
Supers are already makin their decisions. Since Super Tuesday Obama has picked up around 60 SD.s , while Hillary has actually lost S.D.s . As you are to far into denial and now living in some kind of Barbie Dream World it is non use trying to converse with you. Like I said before you really may want to seek out professional help.

by lion king on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 02:27:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Leads in 4 of 5 Upcoming Primaries (2.00 / 1)

Come on, Lion King. Don't burst their bubble. They can dream, can't they?

The most ridiculous part of their argument is that I constantly see threads on here bashing undecided SDs Donna Brazile, Nancy Pelosi, Jimmy Carter for being in the tank for Obama. It apparently hasn't dawned on them yet that these are the very people Hillary needs to persuade to win.

In other words, it ain't gonna happen. But let them have their dreams for now.

by davey jones on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 02:31:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Leads in 4 of 5 Upcoming Primaries (none / 0)

I know isn't it amazing how they don't see the damage they are doing by bashing the biggest names in the Dem party.

by lion king on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 02:51:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Leads in 4 of 5 Upcoming Primaries (2.00 / 1)

What happened to the 50+ he was suppose to pick up after Texas Primary. So Impressive!

Steven Shaman Publisher Skywatch-Media News

by steve468 on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 03:04:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Leads in 4 of 5 Upcoming Primaries (none / 0)

Haven't you noticed that they've been trickling out on a weekly basis.

by lion king on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 03:35:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Omitting Oregon was Dishonest (none / 0)

Pennsylvania and Indiana are margin of error tossups.

It's time to restore balance and fairness to our economy,... It's time to stop giving tax cuts to corporations that ship jobs overseas... - Barack Obama

by Lefty Coaster on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 06:43:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Leads in 4 of 5 Upcoming Primaries (none / 0)

Well, ludicrous is also an apt description of putting so much emphasis and faith in polls....

The only numbers that matter are votes... and that has not not happened yet.

Like the nominee, don't like the nominee... Our nominee is still better than John McCain...

by JenKinFLA on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 04:42:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Because Clinton will have majority of popular vote (none / 0)

In the end, Hillary will be the candidate because she will have more popular vote and the Super Delegates will want the most qualified candidate and the one who can win in November.

by macmcd on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 04:37:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Leads in 4 of 5 Upcoming Primaries (none / 0)

READ ALL ABOUT IT, READ ALL ABOUT IT. Democratic Nominee to be decided by SUPER DELEGATES, NOT PLEDGED DELEGATES. Get it? No one is talking about pledged delegates any more.

Steven Shaman Publisher Skywatch-Media News

by steve468 on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 02:01:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Leads in 4 of 5 Upcoming Primaries (2.00 / 1)

"READ ALL ABOUT IT, READ ALL ABOUT IT. Democratic Nominee to be decided by SUPER DELEGATES, NOT PLEDGED DELEGATES. Get it? No one is talking about pledged delegates any more."

You were talking about pledged delegates when you were whining about "disinfranchising" Florida and Michigan by following the rules laid out long before the vote.

But you've finally come to your real argument, which is to disinfranchise all the voters by trumping their decision in some smoke-filled room of party insiders. Sadly, this is now Clinton's only hope for "victory."

by davey jones on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 02:09:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

READ ALL ABOUT IT! (none / 0)

Democratic party destroyed when superdelegates overturn the will of the people! McCain marches to victory in midst of meltdown among Democrats!

by Mystylplx on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 02:38:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Leads in 4 of 5 Upcoming Primaries (none / 0)

She is going to lose Indiana. Period. Obama will swamp her in Indianapolis. Also his spreadsheet shows him winning Indiana by 7 and they have been dead on in their predictions so far this whole election except for Maine.

by regina1983 on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 01:50:52 PM EST

Re: Clinton Leads in 4 of 5 Upcoming Primaries (none / 0)

Keep Dreaming, too much support for Hillary in that state, she will swamp all rural areas and is even doing good in NW Indiana.

Steven Shaman Publisher Skywatch-Media News

by steve468 on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 02:02:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Leads in 4 of 5 Upcoming Primaries (2.00 / 3)

And Obama will likely lead in North Carolina, Oregon, Montana, South Dakota and Guam. So you could also say, "Clinton leads in half of the remaining primaries." I'm a glass-half-full kind of guy, so I'd say, "Obama leads in half of the remaining primaries."

Not sure how splitting the final races will catch her up in delegates or even the popular vote, but we'll see.

by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 01:56:43 PM EST

Yep Obama and Hillary will probably split (none / 0)

the 10 remaining contests:

Obama: North Carolina, Guam, Montana, Oregon, South Dakota

Hillary: Pennsylvania, Indiana, West Virgina, Kentucky, and Puerto Rico

Will that get Hillary enough pledged delegates?

Very unlikely. However, she could pass Obama in the popular vote by the end of this process.

We shall see...

by puma on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 05:28:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Pledged Delegates (none / 0)

Imo here's a realistic best-case scenario for Clinton for the rest of the contest: wins PA +15%, splits Guam, wins Indiana +10%, loses NC by -20%, wins West Virginia +30%, wins Kentucky by +20%, loses Oregon by -15%, loses South Dakota and Montana by -30%, wins Puerto Rico +40%.

How many pledged delegates would that net her? Between 20-30. Right now she's down 162. If MI and FL were seated with a 60/40 split favoring Clinton, she'd get another 60. Absent some large swing by superdelegates in her favor, I can't see a scenario where she wins.

by IncognitoErgoSum on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 02:06:13 PM EST

Re: Pledged Delegates (none / 0)

Your figures are wrong, not that pledged will decide this race anymore. Anyway he is ahead by 134, a very slim margin.

Steven Shaman Publisher Skywatch-Media News

by steve468 on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 02:08:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Pledged Delegates (none / 0)

The person was talking about pledged delegates, and in that category, she is down 160+.

Adding in Supers, you get your value of 130, but that's not what the above person was referring to.

by nrioq on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 02:13:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Pledged Delegates (none / 0)

I'm going off of the RCP count of pledged delegates (1414-1252). And for the rest of the states, I'm assuming that pledged delegates are awarded proportionally (which probably overstates the possible swing, because many delegates are awarded in groups which are tied to results in a particular congressional district).

When these primaries end, Obama will probably have approx. 1900 delegates (from all sources) and Clinton approx. 1800, with aprox. 320 superdelegates on the fence (Obama's lead in pledged delegates will approx. +130). You think Clinton will convince 2/3rds of the uncommitted superdelegates to vote for her? Think the cw is right: she has perhaps a 5% chance.

by IncognitoErgoSum on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 02:25:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Pledged Delegates (none / 0)

About 70 of the 320 are add-ons and will be allocated around 45-35 to Obama, plus or minus a handful.

by Rorgg on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 02:49:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

More to the point (none / 0)

the Clinton campaign is arguing that popular vote in the standard. If she loses NC by 15, there is no way she can get to within 300,000 votes of Obama evin if you include Florida.

For Clinton to win, she has to get within 5 in North Carolina.

by fladem on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 04:54:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Leads in 4 of 5 Upcoming Primaries (2.00 / 1)

This race will be decided by supers on momentum going forward and that is clearly in HC camp.

Steven Shaman Publisher Skywatch-Media News

by steve468 on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 02:09:43 PM EST

Re: Clinton Leads in 4 of 5 Upcoming Primaries (none / 0)

Obama has been picking up more Superdelegates in the last two months than Clinton, has a lead in national polls, has been out fundraising her, has been closing the gap in Pennsylvannia in terms of which candidate is preferred, and she has lost control of how this race is being framed in the national media.

By what measure does Clinton have momentum?

It is an honest question. I would be happy to support Clinton if she gets the nomination.

by nrioq on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 02:18:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Leads in 4 of 5 Upcoming Primaries (2.00 / 1)

What is your point? I'm stating polls from 4 or the five upcoming primaries. I'm referring to winning states rather than overcoming a small delegate difference. Picking up one or two superdelegates out of hundreds still undecided isn't what I would call a monumental shift towards Obama. The National Polls you refer to have been all over the map in recent weeks, and his average lead in those polls is only 3% or within the margin of error. The fundraising advantage hasn't necessarily equated into wins for Obama. Point in hand, Obama outspent Hillary in Ohio 4 to 1 and in Texas 5 to 1, and yet Hillary won those two state primaries. So although you make some good points, your argument doesn't have much validity.

Hillary has raised over 20million in March, won the Texas and Ohio Primary, received the endorsements of some key individuals in PA and Indiana, and has large and enthusiastic crowds to greet her. Not bad for someone who the media labels as "dead" or told to get out of the race.
When she wins the PA primary, are they going to tell her to get out and support Obama?

Steven Shaman Publisher Skywatch-Media News

by steve468 on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 02:32:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Leads in 4 of 5 Upcoming Primaries (none / 0)

The point is that Obama has the momentum by every metric, and the poster was asking how you figure Hillary has the momentum. The fact she is leading in about half the remaining states doesn't translate into "momentum." 3 weeks ago her lead in PA was about 25, now it's down to around 6 according to RCP.

Who has the momentum?

by Mystylplx on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 02:42:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Leads in 4 of 5 Upcoming Primaries (none / 0)

Yes of course, whatever you say, since no one else knows what they are talking about here! Your dreaming if you think there is momentum for Obama, I haven't seen any, the guy can't even wrap up the nomination, and who is to say that the Supers are lining up on his bandwagon, haven't seen that either, but yes, of course you are right!

Steven Shaman Publisher Skywatch-Media News

by steve468 on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 03:09:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Leads in 4 of 5 Upcoming Primaries (none / 0)

According to everyone but Iowa, Hillary should have had this thing wrapped up by Feb 5th. That's where instant gratification gets ya!!

A useless "Community Organizer" from Pennsylvania as noted by Republicans, Rudy Giuliani and Sarah Palin

by hootie4170 on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 04:41:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Leads in 4 of 5 Upcoming Primaries (2.00 / 1)

Right on...you stated your points perfectly...

I am still amazed at the fact that this guy has raised so much more money, has the "full court press" on his side, and yet he can't knock her out...I find that to be the most interesting part of the story for this campaign. She must be doing something right...our Hillary is still standing...Hang in there Hillary....we have your back!

by Patriot2008 on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 02:51:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Leads in 4 of 5 Upcoming Primaries (none / 0)

As I said. They are both strong candidates. Any other year any other man but Obama she would be resting pretty now.
Same for Obama.

McCain: The Past, Obama: The Future

by KathyM on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 03:01:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Leads in 4 of 5 Upcoming Primaries (none / 0)

I like how you only count the "next 5 states" when there are 10 contests coming up. When Guam comes up can I say "Obama's sweeps the next contest: one out of one!"?

by mikeinsf on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 05:55:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Leads in 4 of 5 Upcoming Primaries (none / 0)

You think superdelegates will say, "Oh, Clinton won Puerto Rico, we have to give the nomination to her"? My hunch, there is already a consensus among 1/2 of the uncommitted superdelegates to vote for the winner of pledged delegates. Not saying the contest should end now, but suspect Clinton's real chances are 0% (absent some implosion of Obama's campaign). This would also explain the comments of Dean and others right now: they aren't simply setting a July 1st deadline, they've done the canvassing and know how this is going to end.

by IncognitoErgoSum on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 02:29:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Leads in 4 of 5 Upcoming Primaries (2.00 / 1)

NO. They will say, Oh Hillary has won Pennsylvania and all the big swing states, that is good reason to vote for her to carry the mantle.

Steven Shaman Publisher Skywatch-Media News

by steve468 on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 02:45:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Leads in 4 of 5 Upcoming Primaries (none / 0)

Positively wonderful news! Thanks for presenting it so succinctly.

Recommended!

TexasDarlin blog

by TexasDarlin on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 02:32:30 PM EST

Re: Clinton Leads in 4 of 5 Upcoming Primaries (none / 0)

the whole pledged delegate system is a fraud. why is it that obama has disproportionate lead in pledged delegates compared to his popular vote. Why is it that black areas have more delegates than white areas. Democratic party has bent over backwards to be fair and in the process has made mockery of the whole system. pledged delegates should be assigned by popular vote not who gets more votes in black/urban areas. what a farce.

by jaguar on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 02:36:44 PM EST

Re: Clinton Leads in 4 of 5 Upcoming Primaries (none / 0)

DNC has a real mess on their hands. They will have to reassess the process for the next election cycle.

Steven Shaman Publisher Skywatch-Media News

by steve468 on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 02:43:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I think Obama would be quite happy (none / 0)

to allow the popular vote to decide this.

by Mystylplx on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 02:47:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Leads in 4 of 5 Upcoming Primaries (none / 0)

Careful love your hood is slipping. Delegates are assigned by past voting trends.

by lion king on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 06:22:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Leads in 4 of 5 Upcoming Primaries (none / 0)

by Rorgg on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 02:50:38 PM EST

Re: Clinton Leads in 4 of 5 Upcoming Primaries (2.00 / 1)

Why do people keep calling it the "popular vote" when in states where caucuses have been held, a very tiny fraction of the population votes?

by kingsbridge77 on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 02:56:33 PM EST

because (none / 0)

we count popular vote of people who vote.

If in a state of a million only 10 people vote in primary, we count them as popular vote.

If in a state of a million only 10 people vote in caucus, we count them as popular vote.

WE COUNT THE PEOPLE WHO SHOW UP TO VOTE!!!

Thats what POPULAR VOTE IS.

Whats with desire to disregard voters in like tens and tens of states.

-- be excellent to each other

by kindthoughts on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 03:52:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Why else would they push it?

It's time to restore balance and fairness to our economy,... It's time to stop giving tax cuts to corporations that ship jobs overseas... - Barack Obama

by Lefty Coaster on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 08:05:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Clinton will win in 8 of 9 Upcoming Primaries (2.00 / 2)

Only NC is a problem for her, because 22% of population (almost half of democratic voters) are black.
She will win WV and KY by 25% or better margin.
It is large probability (given latest trends) she will win in PA much better than in OH.
In IN she will win by 6-8%.
In PR she will win by double digits, given that latino voters love her.
Which leave us only with 3 CLOSED primaries (no caucuses, no open primaries) with very low %% of black voters:
OR - 2.4%, SD - 0.8%, MT - 0.6%.
I think that Hillary has a very good chances there, despite all noise produced by CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS and all other Obama supporters.
I predict she will lead in popular vote and erase gap in pledged delegates.
Florida will be seated as voted and eventually MI too. I have no idea what Guam will do, but it is 4 delegates.
YES WE WILL!

Welcome to a Landslide without white Working class, Latinos, Women, Seniors and holding-on sweeties

by engels on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 03:30:12 PM EST

She will Gaum too (none / 0)

by indus on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 03:56:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton will win in 8 of 9 Upcoming Primaries (none / 0)

I'm making a list of over-Clintonistic predictions, and filing them away for future amusement.

Unable to rec or rate
Still supporting Obama
Still not putting up with "preening" posts

by jaiwithani on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 05:26:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton will win in 8 of 9 Upcoming Primaries (none / 0)

I was thinking about doing that, too.

by mikeinsf on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 05:57:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton will win in 8 of 9 Upcoming Primaries (none / 0)

I am making list of Obama supporters too

Welcome to a Landslide without white Working class, Latinos, Women, Seniors and holding-on sweeties

by engels on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 06:02:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton will win in 8 of 9 Upcoming Primaries (none / 0)

You don't really need a list. From what I understand, you can identify us pretty easily by our latte-breath and disdain for anyone who drinks beer. At least, that's what I heard.

Unable to rec or rate
Still supporting Obama
Still not putting up with "preening" posts

by jaiwithani on Mon Apr 07, 2008 at 06:57:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Hilarious!!!!!!! (none / 0)

I think that Hillary may win 5 out of the 10 remaining primaries.

by puma on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 05:32:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton will win in 8 of 9 Upcoming Primaries (none / 0)

Exactly wrong, in the case of Oregon, and probably those others.

In states with low black population and little black-white friction, like Vermont, Obama dominates, as have been observed elsewhere.

Race just isn't a factor here.

However the place is very genteel, perhaps obnoxiously so. When I first moved here 30 years ago if two pick-ups encountered each other they would stop in the middle of the road and the drivers chat.

If you pulled up behind and gave any sign of impatience before that had hat at least 5 minutes to wind up their conversation you were considered unspeakably rude.

Very weird for someone coming from the NYC metro area.

Hillary's mean campaigning has killed her here. I predict a 30-40% Obama victory.

John McCain: Cheney with a temper

by wrb on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 06:05:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton will win in 8 of 9 Upcoming Primaries (none / 0)

Exactly right: Vermont was Open Primaries, gamed by independents and GOPs. Oregon will be closed primaries. you logic just wrong and your prediction is the pipe dream

Welcome to a Landslide without white Working class, Latinos, Women, Seniors and holding-on sweeties

by engels on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 06:10:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton will win in 8 of 9 Upcoming Primaries (none / 0)

I live here.

I hear huge support for Obama, and growing distaste for Hillary.

^ months ago I know several people who favored Hillary.

Every one has come over to Obama.

I haven't encountered a Hillary supporter for weeks.

John McCain: Cheney with a temper

by wrb on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 06:14:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You live there? (none / 0)

You lucky dog!

No Way, No How, No McCain!

by GFORD on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 08:08:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton will win in 8 of 9 Upcoming Primaries (none / 0)

you are making stuff up. I have a lot of friends in Portland all pro-Hillary

Welcome to a Landslide without white Working class, Latinos, Women, Seniors and holding-on sweeties

by engels on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 10:58:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton will win in 8 of 9 Upcoming Primaries (none / 0)

btw-

You logic, and its expression in various places- that Oregon will vote on race-- is a large part of why people have been moving so strongly away from Hil.

People consider it insulting.

As a result, here actually will be quite a few white Oregonians who vote for Barak because of race.

John McCain: Cheney with a temper

by wrb on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 06:19:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Clinton will win 2 of 9 Upcoming Votes decisively (none / 0)

If you think Clinton can win in Oregon Montana, and South Dakota you are delusional.

It's time to restore balance and fairness to our economy,... It's time to stop giving tax cuts to corporations that ship jobs overseas... - Barack Obama

by Lefty Coaster on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 08:11:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

She'll win all of them! (none / 0)

And it still won't matter.

My candidate lost fair and square. So did yours. Get over it and let's kick McSame's ass!

by RLMcCauley on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 05:18:50 PM EST

Four months ago (2.00 / 0)

Clinton led in all-but-one of the upcoming primaries.

In other news, Obama still leads in 30 of the previous 44 contests.

Unable to rec or rate
Still supporting Obama
Still not putting up with "preening" posts

by jaiwithani on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 05:24:58 PM EST

Re: Four months ago (none / 0)

i have news for you too: at least 15+9=24 of his wins are either fraud or insignificant or both.

Welcome to a Landslide without white Working class, Latinos, Women, Seniors and holding-on sweeties

by engels on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 06:04:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Of course they are (none / 0)

insignificant. I'm in one of those insignificant 2/5 caucus states and I'm proud to wear the label.

No Way, No How, No McCain!

by GFORD on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 08:10:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Four months ago (none / 0)

Explain this one to me. 24 of Obama's victories are either fraud or insignificant, yet Hillary's victories in Florida and Michigan are completely legitimate and deserve to be counted?

No, seriously. Please explain. This should be good. I'll go grab some popcorn and wait for this one.

by doschi on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 08:15:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Reality check for Clinton Supporters (none / 0)

Hillary is done. The next 10 contests will only serve to confirm that trend.

A 5 point win in PA, A 3 point win in IN, big wins in small states like KY and WV will not when the popular vote.

Barack takes NC, OR, MT, SD.

PR is not going to be enough, by the time we get there, she'll be on life-support.

I will vote for Barack, I will vote for Hillary, I will vote for Obaminton or Clintobama, how about you?

by AnyDem2008 on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 05:46:15 PM EST

Re: Reality check for Clinton Supporters (none / 0)

forget about OR, SD, MT - Hillary will win them too

Welcome to a Landslide without white Working class, Latinos, Women, Seniors and holding-on sweeties

by engels on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 06:06:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Reality check for Clinton Supporters (none / 0)

Are you kidding? Reality has a well-known Obama bias.

I will vote for Barack, I will vote for Hillary, I will vote for Obaminton or Clintobama, how about you?

by AnyDem2008 on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 06:16:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Leads in 4 of 5 Upcoming Primaries (2.00 / 1)

Win the popular vote, not "when".

I guess us elite latte liberals aren't as smart as we think in spelling.

I will vote for Barack, I will vote for Hillary, I will vote for Obaminton or Clintobama, how about you?

by AnyDem2008 on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 05:47:12 PM EST

It's Stunning (none / 0)

That this diary of delusional arithmetic has gotten 65 comments.

Meanwhile, the Saturday Morning Diary Rescue, which tried to revive several well written diaries covering important progressive issues, has gotten 3 comments since dawn.

None of the rescued diaries featured candidate bashing. Draw your own conclusions.

Let the children lose it Let the children use it Let all the children boogie

by toyomama on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 05:59:46 PM EST

so why did you comment? (none / 0)

DON'T COUNT THE VOTES, DON'T COUNT THE VOTES.... Obama and the Obamaettes... spring 2008

by TeresaINPennsylvania on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 07:16:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: so why did you comment? (none / 0)

Because I have the same right to comment here as you.

Let the children lose it Let the children use it Let all the children boogie

by toyomama on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 07:18:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I thought it was sad that (none / 0)

the diary about the high school phone bankers, wonderfully written by one of the high schoolers with pictures of them hard at work didn't even make it to the rec list. When I commented I was about #6 or so and then it dropped off the list a little later.

No Way, No How, No McCain!

by GFORD on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 08:14:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Leads in 4 of 5 Upcoming Primaries (none / 0)

Why can't we all wait and see what happens?

by hidesrtdav on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 07:42:55 PM EST

Re: Clinton Leads in 4 of 5 Upcoming Primaries (none / 0)

Clinton leads in 100% of the remaining primaries that start with the letter K!

by Skaje on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 12:16:51 AM EST

You are not logged in.

In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.

If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.