What Momentum Looks Like

by Todd Beeton, Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:33:11 PM EST

With six days until next Tuesday's Indiana and North Carolina primaries, Hillary Clinton seems to have translated her win in Pennsylvania into a real shift in momentum, a somewhat surprising turn of events considering this race has been largely momentum-proof. It began with a shift in the media narrative following her win from "what is she still doing in this thing?" to "why can't Obama seal the deal?" and continued with what seemed like 4 uninterrupted days of Reverend Wright's sabotage tour, which went unanswered until Tuesday. It was perfect storm for Clinton who has seen a boost in several metrics.

  • In North Carolina, Obama's 4-poll average lead pre-PA was 15%, today it's 10%.

  • In Indiana , whereas Obama led in the 3 polls directly leading up to the Pennsylvania primary and the one immediately following it, Clinton has been ahead in three of the last 4 polls in the state.

  • Nationally, the shift toward Clinton has been most dramatic in the Newsweek poll, which showed her closing Obama's 19 point lead pre-Pennsylvania to just a 7 point lead after it. As for the tracking polls, since April 22, Gallup's results have shifted from Obama up 8 to Clinton up 1 and Rasmussen now has Obama up 4 whereas he was up 8 on primary day.

  • In another reversal, Clinton is now performing better against McCain than Obama is in both the Rasmussen and Gallup head to head match-up tracking polls.

  • Public perception seems to have changed as well judging by InTrade, which showed Clinton's likelihood of winning the nomination go from 12% to 25% in a week (just about where the Rasmussen trading markets have her.)

All of which is to say that Hillary Clinton has had a very good week, but the true test of momentum will only come next Tuesday. Can Clinton sustain it in an environment that has seen upward shifts shift back in mere days? Barack Obama is doing what he can to stem this turning tide of course, first through his denouncement of Reverend Wright yesterday and then via the roll out of several endorsements yesterday and today to project strength and confidence to superdelegates. But what about actual voters?

Here's Gallup's take from last night's polling results:

Tuesday, Obama attempted to put the Rev. Jeremiah Wright controversy behind him by denouncing his former pastor's recent comments in the media. Tuesday night's interviews show no immediate impact of Obama's remarks on voter preferences.

It's too soon to tell the full impact of Obama's speech, of course, and it's too soon to know just how many superdelegate endorsements Obama will net this week, but there's certainly  enough time for things to shift back. It's true, of course, that every other time Clinton has exhibited any sign of momentum it's been fleeting and Obama has been able to shift it back, but this looks and feels different.




Tags: 2008 presidential election, democratic nomination, hillary clinton, barack obama (all tags)

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Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

In what respect does this "look and feel different"?


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:02:36 PM EST

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

Very good week and it's just Wednesday . . .

. . . let me add the remaining senses to this sensory smorgasbord...

. . . smells, tastes and sounds different too . . .

. . . and what about that all time favorite Extra Sensory Perception (ESP), clairvoyantly is different.


by wasanyonehurt on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:16:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

It's also "toon soon to tell" whether any of this actually matters at this point.  Absent something that fundamentally changes the dynamics of this race -- and literally makes Obama objectively unelectable -- every super delegate that comes out for Obama makes Clinton's path to the nomination more tenuous.

Now, can she still win?  Sure.  But this kind of momentum would have done her a lot more good earlier in the primary cycle.  In other words, I'm just not sure that "momentum" means an awful lot at this juncture.  


by HSTruman on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:06:48 PM EST

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (2.00 / 1)

Momentum means everything in these closing weeks of the campaign. Electability is everything. Pledged delegates and popular votes only count for so much. Obama had the big Mo early on when people didn't know who he really was. Now that they have a better idea, Hillary has the big Mo.

It's all about electoral votes and Hillary is demonstrating she can get them and she can win in November. That's all that matters.

Also, all the votes from FL and MI must be considered because they, too, go to electability. Obama has done poorly in the states necessary to win.

Sorry but Obama's supporters are going to have to get used to the idea that Hillary may well be our nominee.


by Nobama on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:13:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (2.00 / 1)

Nope. Sorry. Delegates are all that matter in the primary.

Delegates. It's how we choose the Democratic nominee.

No other metric matters. It still hasn't changed.

Maybe the other metrics will sway superdelegates. Some are, some aren't. But unless that changes the delegate count in a meaningful way, she'll need more than Mo to make the difference.

Like runaway Acela Mo. Don't see that happening yet.


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:19:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (2.00 / 0)

How delegates vote at the convention.

Not what delegates say before the convention.

Obama is in much more hurt than appears.


by DTaylor on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:20:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

You really think pledged delegates, who are chosen by the individual campaigns from their most ardent supporters, are going to change their minds?

Good luck with that.

And while Supers can change their minds, the ones that have have gone in one direction. And it's not to Hillary.


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:22:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (2.00 / 0)

In Obama's camp, the hands are startin' to wring and soon the tears will start to flow, just 6 more days


by wasanyonehurt on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:26:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

After Tuesday, Hillary will be 140 delegates behind, and Obama will be less than 200 away from clinching the nomination. After the rest of the primaries, less than 100, maybe 75. Hillary, meanwhile, will need 150 or more, even if she claims this so-called "momentum."

Tears? Doubt it.


by jbill on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:34:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Wishful thinking (none / 0)

You guys said that after Wright, after "bitter," after everything that looked like it might be slightly negative for Obama.

Every time, he bounced back just fine.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:22:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wishful thinking (2.00 / 1)

Uh, Obama hasn't bounced back from anything. His numbers have been in decline for a while now, even before PastorGate and BitterGate. His demographics are eroding, as seen in PA.

NC and IN will offer further proof that Obama hasn't a chance in the general. If he's perceived to be a weak GE candidate, the SDs will move to Hillary en masse. His pledged delegates could even move to her at the convention.

Few politicians running in November will want to be seen as having anything to do with Obama.


by Nobama on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:38:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

wow... (none / 0)

the spin...the spin


-- be excellent to each other
by kindthoughts on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:45:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I think the AP had it right as 'infatuation' (none / 0)

that is fading, for want of substance..

Obama could prevent some of it. But he would have to start giving specifics that would by necessity prevent people from projecting their hopes onto him.. to please one group, he has to alienate another.. etc.

That's life..

There is no there there..


Universal healthcare IS a Democratic value
It's been defeated
Obama has the best $PIN that money can buy.
by architek on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:59:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

thank you for your opinion (none / 0)

please be advised that might necessarily reflect reality.


-- be excellent to each other
by kindthoughts on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 06:54:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

"Demographics are eroding" (none / 0)

He cut Clinton's lead in half and his demographics are eroding?

Sorry, you are clearly obsessed with the prospect of hating Obama.  Why else would you name yourself "Nobama?"

I think you're secretly in love with him, and in a few weeks will change your name to "GOBAMA!"


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:56:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wishful thinking (none / 0)

But he improved in PA vs. OH in every demographic, so wouldn't that kind of make you a disingenous moron?


by Socraticsilence on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 06:00:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

Delegates will decide by June. They won't switch later.  


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:22:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

You are probably correct but I think there is a chance it won't be decided by June ....

Clinton is likely to win everything except NC and OR before June. Unless Obama has a very strong result from NC he will be behind in the popular vote counting MI and FL (and possibly even excluding MI).

In that situation it will very tough for the super delegates to decide before MI and FL are resolved and before John Edwards decides for whom his delegates will vote.

If Clinton should somehow win NC and OR (not very likely) then I think it's fair to say we'll go all the way to the convention with Clinton the likely nominee.


by kristoph on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:53:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I've heard good things about Colorado (none / 0)

There's some word that Obama even puts Colorado in play for the general.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:57:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I've heard good things about Colorado (none / 0)

Obama neeeeeeds Colorado

He loses Ohio, Pa, Florida, possibly NJ, possibly California

Obama neeeeeeds Colorado


by DTaylor on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 08:30:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I've heard good things about Colorado (none / 0)

Obama polls better againt McCain in NJ and CA than Clinton. And he will win PA. OH will probably go to him as well considering the economy McCain's inability to bring out the Jesus vote.  Florida is the only state that Obama cannot win (mostly because of age) and Clinton can.


by elrod on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 08:47:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

Clinton is likely to win everything except NC and OR before June.

Um, yeah Hill's not winning MT, she might win SD though history argues against it, but she's not winnign Montana.


by Socraticsilence on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 06:02:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

Delegates don't need to decide in June

Dean, Pelosi, Obama

Thats who neeeeeeeeeeeed a decision in June


by DTaylor on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:58:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

Good point, we could go all the way to the cionvention the only ones it hurts are those who don't want McCain to win.


by Socraticsilence on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 06:03:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

We will go all the way to the convention.  

The Super Delegates may have their say in June but the Voters will let them know how they feel in July and the Supers better change their position to accomodate...


by DTaylor on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 08:28:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

I don't have to get used to anything. I've always thought that Clinton could be the nominee.

That said, I think it's pretty unlikely. But lots of unlikely things have happened in my lifetime -- and the top three most odd political events of my adult lifetime are that the Reagan administration sold arms to Iran, President Clinton had sex with an intern in the WH, and the Supreme Court stopped a state from counting votes and thereby gave the presidency to George W. Bush.

So if those things could happen, it's certainly possible Clinton could get the nomination.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:21:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

And Hillary supporters are going to have to find a way to replace the AA, youth, and intellectual voters who will stay home if that happens.

The fact is, Obama is facing several opponents--the GOP, Hillary (who seems to be in concert with the GOP), his former pastor, the Candidan government...  I mean the list is endless.  I've never seen a candidate have to endure so much... and yet, he is still standing... and still sticking to a "clean" campaign, instead of taking the low road like his opponents are doing to him...

That's real toughness!  


by LordMike on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:23:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

Clinton does not need the AA vote or the youth vote to win FL, OH and PA and she won't lose any core democratic states because of these groups.

I bet Bayh will deliver IN and with him on the ticker I think there is a good chance she can take that state also.

The biggest impact would be on down ticket races where the AA vote is critical to the candidate. I do think there would be a much lower AA turn out from AA voters and, to a lesser extent, the youth voters, but it's not like other democrats will turn away.

Obviously if she chooses Obama as VP those problems go away but if there is another Wright blowup he might be too toxic.

]{


by kristoph on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 05:00:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

Um, no she can't win PA with lowered AA turnout, look at Rendell's victory, and realize that the map he won is pretty much Obama's PA map (Rendell only won like 10 counties, or 3 more than Obama), then realize that she'll get destroyed with lowered AA turnout, the smae thing is true in Ohio, hell she's already liekly to lose MI due to AA turnout (there's a reason that Obama is shown winning MI and Hillary losing it even on this site), FL is possilbe buty dicey with lowered AA turnout, if youth turnout falls as well she's pretty mcuh screwed.


by Socraticsilence on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 06:06:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

Um, yes she will.  PA rural voters seem to be the key in that state for this cycle.  Right now: Yes, it does look like different groups could switch out if their person doesn't get the nod.  So...please remember the voting and working (in the precincts and party) role of us women of a certain age.  We are strong in numbers as well.


by christinep on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 07:06:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

No. Without strong AA vote, Clinton loses PA, MI, OH and probably IL, NJ and FL. You do realize that Bill Clinton would have come very close to losing to Bob Dole in 1996 if not for large African American voting. Polls in PA showed only 55% of blacks going to Clinton in November. There aren't enough older white women to offset those normally guaranteed Democratic votes.


by elrod on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 08:50:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

You might want to look at percentages again for each demographic in the general.  It is legitimate to ask how many older white women (who do vote in large numbers) will vote McCain if Hillary is not the nominee vs how many come home in the end.  By the same token, it is also legit to ask the same question about the AA demographic if she is the nominee.  By the by: Lets not talk about what we say, but what history says happens in the end.


by christinep on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 09:03:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

Falsely labeling your opponent as a racist is running a "clean" campaign?

And he's not particularly tough.  The media has treated him with kid gloves until very recently.  When the media and the DNC leadership are salivating over you as though you're the second coming of christ, you can't really judge a person's toughness.  It seems to me that when things don't go his way, he sulks.  That's not tough in my book.  


by RobinLB on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 05:57:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

I don't believe that's at all accurate.  As I recall, Hillary led all of the early polling in the last few YEARS leading up to the campaigns.  As voters got to know Obama more over time, he closed the gaps and took the lead in time for the primaries.

People have had a lot longer to gauge Hillary.  Her disapproval numbers don't budge.  The "Obama has done poorly in states necessary to win" meme is weak.  If you doubt he'd win NY, California, and by the way, he DID win Texas, then might I suggest you lay your money on the Kansas City Royals to win the World Series.


by Jenius on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:26:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Disapproval numbers (none / 0)

Actually her negative ratings have gone up at least 10% over the course of the campaign, by most estimates.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:59:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Disapproval numbers (none / 0)

... and yet she is doing better than Obama versus McCain in virtually every recent poll.


by kristoph on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 05:01:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (2.00 / 1)


Hooray for Hillary!

She has the big Mo!

So happy to see that after all this time.

We're about to donate more to her campaign while we can still get the matching funds.

Thanks to all of Hillary's supporters who are helping to make Hillary's success possible!


by Nobama on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:07:09 PM EST

Neew Fox News Dynamics Poll... (none / 0)

Clinton leads McCain by 1, but Obama loses to McCain by 3.


by handsomegent on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 05:57:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (2.00 / 2)

Does this mean when Clinton loses NC we get to ask why she can't close things out?

Is the fact that Obama has collected more superdelegate endorsements than Clinton since PA meaningless?


It's just the beat of time, the beat that must go on
If you've been trying for years, we already heard your song
by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:07:11 PM EST

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (2.00 / 0)

No, Marshmallow Smores (my daughter loves smores)

What it means is that when Clinton smokes IN, and eeks a win out in NC you'll see an impressive flow of Supers to her, which is what should of happened had Obama done better in PA.


by wasanyonehurt on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:20:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

I thought that should have happened after PA? Or Ohio? Or Super Tuesday? Or before any of the primaries took place?

But if she ekes out a victory in North Carolina, I'll admit that's a huge loss for Obama, although I still don't see how that changes the math. And dude, I'd never make that bet.


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:24:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

We need to triangulate here.

We're talking about 'momentum' not delegate 'math'.  Apparently, delegates no longer matter ;-)

To be fair, I don't read Todd's post as relating to math or catching up in delegates etc (and not saying you read it that way either).

Bigger question would be: if you can't catch up, what use is momentum beyond convincing superdelegates to override the will of the people?  Oh, wait, hmmmm.


It's just the beat of time, the beat that must go on
If you've been trying for years, we already heard your song
by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:31:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (2.00 / 1)

She did claim to be a "fighter."

I just didn't think she meant "against her own party."


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:36:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

I'd agree with that.  If she wins in NC, then we can start talking about real momentum.  

Too bad for HRC this 'momentum' is coming so late in the game.


It's just the beat of time, the beat that must go on
If you've been trying for years, we already heard your song
by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:25:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

It's never too late in the game.  Supers are free agents - then can switch their support at will to whatever horse they see can cross the finish line ahead of McBush. . . it's all about Electability baby. . .


by wasanyonehurt on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:29:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (2.00 / 1)

HRC's only argument now is electability.

But I do think the supers would need a very, very, very good reason to override the pledged delegate count (and let's keep MI & FL out of the discussion, I want a DNC-sanctioned solution there).  

If the 'reason' is just that HRC seems a bit more electable than BO, then that is an invitation to disaster (my opinion), especially if the perception by many Dems is that HRC 'made' BO unelectable.

Not trying to ignite an argument here.  I think we agree on the big picture (i.e. it is all down to the supers now and a win in NC is probably the best 'pure' argument HRC can make for the nomination).


It's just the beat of time, the beat that must go on
If you've been trying for years, we already heard your song
by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:38:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

If polls numbers in June decided the nominee, Bill Clinton would have never been chosen as the nominee.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:40:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

Hopefully, we'll learn from our mistake in 1992 and not nominate someone unelectable.  Or something.

Bill brings this up when defending why HRC should stay in the race.  Which kinda seems to undermine some of the "Obama is toxic waste" unelectability arguments.  


It's just the beat of time, the beat that must go on
If you've been trying for years, we already heard your song
by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:56:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

nope (none / 0)

"HRC's only argument now is electability."

that and more people have voted for her.


For Obama it now becomes: Faith, hope and CHANGE! And the greatest of these is Change!
by TeresaInPa on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 06:11:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: nope (none / 0)

Counting michigan is a sure sign of a disingenuous argument.  And even if she "wins" the popular vote (a silly measure since some states are caucuses), the competition is for delegates, not popular votes.  Those are the rules as both candidates have always known.  

You Hillary people touting the popular vote in the primary are simultaneously yammering about how Hillary is the only one who can win the key electoral college states in November.  Some modicum of consistency would really be nice.


by snaktime on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 06:50:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (2.00 / 1)

Very true. Although for that to happen, Obama would need to be caught shtupping Rev. Wright on Bill Ayer's front porch while Tony Rezko did something else very unlikely but I'm too exhausted to finish the gag.

Seriously, that's like being down 31-7  for an interception touchdown and 2 point conversion, followed by an on-side kick run in for a touchdown and a second 2 point conversion, followed by a second on-side kick run in for a third touchdown and 2 point conversion -- after which the game goes to overtime, you win the toss and promptly run the football and the coin in for a touchdown.

Could happen. But would the magic space ponies allow it?


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:39:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

Didn't Buffalo do that in the playoffs back in 1993?

And then they lost the Super Bowl 52-17.

I wonder, is there any analogy we could draw to the primaries and GE?
It's just the beat of time, the beat that must go on
If you've been trying for years, we already heard your song
by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 05:12:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

I saw that game. Dallas Broke Washingtons undefeated streak at Washingtons last home game of the season. I was on the 50 yard line. I was a Redskins fan but it was still a great game. Was that 1990? By the way everyone thought Memphis had the national championship locked and the Lady Vol's could not go all the way for an eighth championship this year. Who'd of figured?

Go Lady Vol's! Eight in '08 feels great.


"RedStateLib-The condition of being a Liberal who finds themselves living in a state that never should have gone to Bush in 2000."
by RedstateLib on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 09:36:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (2.00 / 1)

I feel the moementum swinging Obama's way already.  When I get this excited feeling there is usually something to it.  The reviews have been great for Obama and I am really happy today for Obama.  Super delegates are still moving his way, and most AA leaders feel that he did the right thing to move away from Rev Wright.


by Spanky on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:07:23 PM EST

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

Like blowing against a strong wind...

=)


by DTaylor on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:21:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

Is it an excited feeling up your leg like Chris Matthews?

After May 6 - Supers have their cover to go Hillary.


by wasanyonehurt on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:22:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

But what will the unicorns do? Won't someone think of the unicorns?


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:24:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The only momentum HRC has... (2.00 / 1)

is going back to the senate.  Unless she plan on stealing this nomination, then she is totally, DOA.


by tracey webb on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:07:28 PM EST

Re: The only momentum HRC has... (none / 0)

Nobody's going to steal the nomination.  

Why so Obama supporters always think she's going to "steal" it.  This is similar to the claims that she's racist--totally unfounded.  


by RobinLB on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:46:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The only momentum HRC has... (none / 0)

The reason people think she's going to "steal" the nomination is because she's advocating the SDs award her the nomination even if/when she ends the contest:

a) Trailing in pledged delegates
b) Trailing in states won
c) Trailing in popular vote

That's why.


by ChrisKaty on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 05:05:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (2.00 / 1)

Donate to Obama now to stop this from continuing!!!


by Bobby Obama on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:08:22 PM EST

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

Thanks for the suggestion, $50 more coming to Hillary.


by wasanyonehurt on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:22:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

Thank you for contributing to Obama's GE fund.


by reggie44pride on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:32:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (2.00 / 3)

I think the only real game-changer will be if Clinton wins NC. Not a single-digit loss, not a close finish, but just a win. A simple 50+1 win. Everything else is transient.

The fundamentals are still with an Obama primary win.


"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."
by VAAlex on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:09:30 PM EST

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

I agree.  If Clinton wins NC, then that would indeed be a game-changer and bring Obama's electability into (what I consider legitimate) question.

The next question would be whether Obama backers would blame HRC for making Obama unelectable and stay home in the GE.  That is a question to which I don't think anyone of us knows the answer right now.  


It's just the beat of time, the beat that must go on
If you've been trying for years, we already heard your song
by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:16:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

"The next question would be whether Obama backers would blame HRC for making Obama unelectable and stay home in the GE.  That is a question to which I don't think anyone of us knows the answer right now."

I do!  Yes, they will stay home, especially the AA voters.


by LordMike on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:24:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

And an equal number of HRC backers will stay home if Obama wins.  

Not a good situation.  


by RobinLB on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:40:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

If Clinton loses by every metric and her supporters stay home, that's just sour grapes.  They won't have a leg to stand on.

If Obama's ahead by every metric and Clinton somehow gets the nomination, his supporters will have a pretty legitimate beef with Clinton, and I wouldn't blame them for not supporting her.

That said, if Clinton wins NC, I agree that's potentially game-changing, and opens a path of legitimacy up for her.  Her big problem, though, is that NC is pretty much must-win.  If she doesn't win that, she really won't have a legitimate path to the nomination.  Even winning OR at that point won't really do it IMO.


by ChrisKaty on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 05:10:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

If Obama wins it by receiving a larger number of pledged delegates and popular votes, and the SDs swing to him in large enough numbers that even seating MI and FL would not change the result... do you still feel Clinton supporters would feel the result was unfair?  Would they still stay home in large numbers?

Just curious.


by protothad on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 06:02:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

Your scenario is the only scenario that would legitamize an Obama victory.  No self-respecting democrat should have any thoughts about not fully supporting Obama if that scenario occurs.

However, if MI and FL are not dealt with fairly wrt Hillary based on the 2.2 million American voters that voted for her like you did and I will. Or she wins the popular vote and the Superdelegates still give it to him, I'm afraid that a lot of Reagan democrats and working class whites may not support him viewing it as illegitimate.


by wasanyonehurt on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 06:52:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

Reagan democrats aren't going to support Hillary either... their' REAGAN DEMOCRATS!  They are already going for McCain!


by LordMike on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 08:24:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

I suspect the late breaking superdelegates will swing large toward the candidate that is perceived as the winner, assuring a margin that makes FL and MI less important and gives the 'legitimacy' the voters want.  Whichever way it goes, there will be some hurt feelings and some people will stay home in Novemember, but I expect/hope most Dems will rally behind the nominee.  We need a unified party in the GE.

For the record, I voted for Obama in the WI primary, but I'll back the Dem in November even if we run a tree stump with a rusty bucket as the VP.  ;)


by protothad on Thu May 01, 2008 at 12:29:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

I guess my feeling is that things might seem a little different in October than they do now.  That's why I don't think we know right now.

But.... I think it may be worse than AA voters staying home.  Taking the nomination away from Obama and handing it to Clinton would give the Republicans a huge opening to attract socially conservative AA voters for the foreseeable future.  


It's just the beat of time, the beat that must go on
If you've been trying for years, we already heard your song
by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:48:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

Why should NC count for so much?  Supers who are intelligent will be looking at how the candidates perform among the different demographics in NC.  NC is a big state but it is pretty solidly Republican in the GE.


by mikes101 on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:18:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

Because, as I've argued for a while now, Clinton has been at best 'holding the line'. And for someone who is behind, in a defensive posture, she needs to make up some ground and go on the offensive and put up some big -- and unexpected -- wins to get back into the thick of things.

As it is, she has 'held the line' -- she won PA. That's about it. Superdelegates are still favoring Obama, and the overall delegate count is essentially frozen -- with a slight bleed toward Obama.

NC is important because it would be a wake-up call. Something would be seriously amiss if Obama didn't win NC. He will, though.


"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."
by VAAlex on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:28:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

That's fine, except I think expecting Hillary to win NC is ludicrous.  If I was a superdelegate, I would be more concerned about GE prospects than whether Hillary can make up the pledged delegate gap by winning a solid Republican state in a primary.  As such, the only thing I would be interested in NC would be margin and how AAs and working-class white people are voting, as well as the percentages of each that say they will back the other if nominated.  If certain demographics are even more turned off by Obama than they were in Ohio and PA, then yes, I can still hand the nomination to Obama.  But I do so knowing full well that I am headed for likely November defeat.

That said, if Hillary wins NC, I think it is curtains for Obama.  So maybe we're not that far off in our views...


by mikes101 on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:41:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

Alex is correct.

The narrative up to now has been each side holding serve on the states that favors each demographically, the have won what their supposed to win or win a tossup state like IN.

A Clinton win in NC (an Obama favorable demograpic) the narrative finally changes.


by wasanyonehurt on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:45:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

Yeah, I think we're on the same page, and you're absolutely right -- expecting Hillary to win NC is ludicrous. Which is why it would be a huge deal and would make many take notice if it happened. :)


"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."
by VAAlex on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:46:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

I guess my point is if Clinton wins Indiana by close to 10 or so (maybe even just >5) and loses NC by under 5, and there is evidence of further erosion of white support of Obama, I think that is also evidence of momentum.  I don't think an outright win in NC is actually that important.


by mikes101 on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:51:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

Actually, polls suggest Obama puts it in play in the GE. Hillary doesn't though.


by jbill on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:38:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

NC will be no more in play for Dems than NJ will be for GOP.  


by RobinLB on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:41:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

Show me a poll from the last few days that says that.


by mikes101 on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:43:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (2.00 / 1)

I agree with you that a Clinton win in NC (combined, presumably, with a Clinton win in IN) would be a major game-changer.  If that were to take place, Clinton could conceivably sweep the last 10 states and go into the convention with unstoppable momentum, even if she still trails in pledged delegates.

However, I don't think that's her only path to the nomination.  A solid win in Indiana combined with a much closer than expected loss there, followed up by huge victories in WV and KY and surprise victories in one or two other states, could still leave her in good shape going into the convention.


by markjay on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:19:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

There's many a slip betwixt the cup and the lip, but it says right here that if Clinton can hang onto the momentum from here to the Convention, the nomination is hers.  That's a lot to ask, but that's all it takes.


by Trickster on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:11:56 PM EST

I think Obama is not going to perform (none / 0)

well on Tuesday, this Wright thing has really gotten out of hand and will make him a poor GE candidate.  It will sink in by Tuesday, and Clinton will be ahead in the popular vote by the last primary's end.

Then Obama will have to revisit the mess of Florida and MI.


by Molee on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:13:01 PM EST

You overestimate (none / 0)

The media narrative seems to be turning in Obama's favor over Wright after his angry disavowal.

I think he's in better shape than you think.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:28:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

If they split NC and IN - which is most likely - the race is called a tie and they move on.  

Then Clinton wins WV.  The next week, the most likely scenario is that they split KY and OR.  If so, it's pretty likely that on that day, Obama ends up with a majority of pledged delegates.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:14:53 PM EST

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

Let me explain: After KY and OR, Obama will likely end up with a majority of all possible pledged delegates from DNC sanctioned contests.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:18:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

"The next week, the most likely scenario is that they split KY and OR.  If so, it's pretty likely that on that day, Obama ends up with a majority of pledged delegates."

Do you have any idea what kind of margins Hillary is pulling in Kentucky?  May 20th is not going to yield a net win of pledged delegates for Barack Obama.  If Obama doesn't absolutely trounce Hillary in North Carolina by over 20%, her lead in the remaining contests will be out of control.  

You have to think about things like states' populations, amount of delegates, and candidates' margins of victory.  The Indiana voter ID (aka voter suppression law) that the Supreme Court upheld yesterday is estimated to reduce AA votes by 20% in Indiana.  If that happens, Hillary will win by double digits.    


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:23:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

He only needs 45% or so (none / 0)

By May 20, Obama only needs something like 45% of the remaining pledged delegates to come out with the lead.

Which is to say, Clinton would need to win by over 10 points everywhere to prevent it.  Kentucky can only cover so much.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:31:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: He only needs 45% or so (none / 0)

We're looking at Clinton blowouts in West Virginia, Kentucky, in Puerto Rico.

Indiana could be anywhere from a narrow Obama win to Clinton + 12.

North Carolina was supposed to be a huge Obama firewall, something like +25% but to everyone's surprise it's now teetering on single digits.  

Oregon is a wild card.  The demographics of Oregon's primary base vis-a-vis Washington's primary suggests a tie.  The fact that Clinton has the momentum now favors her.  

South Dakota and Montana are primaries in regions that have never held primaries (aside from Utah).  Everything else was a caucus.  

The +200,000 vote Pennsylvania victory set into motion the events for Hillary's dream scenario, which right now is Obama's nightmare scenario.  
Wright and Bittergate coming back in commercials now and for the foreseeable future if Obama wins just compounds things.  


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 07:42:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: He only needs 45% or so (2.00 / 1)

Consider this - a 2 million turnout in NC is not at all out of the question, given the increase in Dem and Independent voter registrations. Penn is a bigger state, but NC allows independents to vote in the Dem primary.

Maybe HRC has closed the gap, maybe not (it's very hard to imagine that Obama would only get 30% of the white vote, 8% lower than even blue collar Penn, that SUSA claims in their recent crosstabs).

If he pulls out a 9-10% win, and given the AA population in NC it's hard to see how he wouldn't, it's likely he will land as many popular votes as Penn (~200K ish).


by tysonpublic on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 08:51:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: He only needs 45% or so (none / 0)

Given NC's open primary, high turnout and a 9% victory would give Obama almost a 200K margin.  Your math is sound.  It's refreshing to see some honest analysis coming from both sides on this issue.  


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Thu May 01, 2008 at 01:12:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

Are you reqally thinking the SC ruling is a good thing, I mean you do realize that in the general it will kill us as a party right?


by Socraticsilence on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 06:18:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

The SC ruling is bad for the Dem party.  I don't know why you think I support or agree with it.  I was simply pointing out its existence.  


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 07:49:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You guyz failed 9th grade algebra. (none / 0)

Obama's got the math wrapped up!

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/30/ 153347/205/974/506527


by LoneStarLefty on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:15:05 PM EST

Re: You guyz failed 9th grade algebra. (2.00 / 1)

But he is failing Geography.


by DTaylor on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:23:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You guyz failed 9th grade algebra. (none / 0)

All that matters is civics.

As in, in the Democratic Party, the candidate with the most delegates wins the nomination.


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:25:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You guyz failed 9th grade algebra. (none / 0)

Most delegates on the day of the convention.

Pledged Delegates can vote any way they choose in the convention.


by DTaylor on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:59:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You guyz failed 9th grade algebra. (none / 0)

Typo meant super delegates


by DTaylor on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 05:01:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You guyz failed 9th grade algebra. (none / 0)

The point is the pledged delegates are, in MyDD terms, not just Kool Aide drinkers, but freebasers. They blow the smoke into a paperbag, and then breathe it back in to make sure they got every last crystal, and emerge even more sober for it.

The Clinton side? Let's just say that W didn't snort nearly as much powder as her delegates do the Clinton Kool Aid. I think they lace theirs with some kind trippy psychotropic mushroom though, which makes them think that any pledged delegates would ever switch votes.


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 08:57:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You guyz failed 9th grade algebra. (none / 0)

And what does that even mean?


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:29:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You guyz failed 9th grade algebra. (none / 0)

Electability.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:57:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You guyz failed 9th grade algebra. (none / 0)

That diary was like the caveman's chart of imaginary pro-Obama calculations.

Loses points for pretending MI/FL don't exist and loses points for pretending Hillary is only going to gain 20 delegates in the remaining 9 contests.  At this rate, she'll probably get 20 delegates from Kentucky alone.  


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:26:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You guyz failed 9th grade algebra. (none / 0)

KY is one state and Obama wins delegates from others.

Oh, and for Clinton to be +20 in KY she has to do better than 2-1 in the state when one takes into account the congressional delegation allocation.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:31:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You guyz failed 9th grade algebra. (none / 0)

The only states Obama is expected to win from here to the end are NC.

Oregon and Montana are ostensibly Obama country but no one has polled either.

Clinton is leading Obama 63 to 27 in KY so that's better than 2-1 actually.


by kristoph on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 05:08:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You guyz failed 9th grade algebra. (none / 0)

"Oh, and for Clinton to be +20 in KY she has to do better than 2-1 in the state when one takes into account the congressional delegation allocation."

Check the RCP for Kentucky and for further edification, look up its demographics.  

Even the biggest cities in Kentucky are nowhere near as progressive as Pittsburgh, PA, which Obama lost by 9 points.  Obama got trounced in the Pitts suburbs and even lost suburban Philadelphia.

There is simply no support for Barack Obama's vision anywhere in Kentucky.  It's going to be the Obama nightmare scenario of Western Maryland meets Western Pennsylvania meets Southern Ohio meets rural Tennessee with a new week of Wright controversy all over the airwaves.

He will be lucky to get 33% of the vote there.  


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 07:57:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You guyz failed 9th grade algebra. (none / 0)

Not necessarily true. Obama will win Louisville. And Lexington has a large student population. Clinton will do strongest in coal country in eastern KY and around Paducah in the West. Northern KY will be closer than people think. Remember, Obama won Hamilton County, OH, which is much like northern KY.

I predict Clinton wins KY 58-42.


by elrod on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 08:58:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You guyz failed 9th grade algebra. (none / 0)

Louisville and Lexington are the reasons it will be 70%/30% rather than 80%/20%.  They're nowhere near as well equipped to warp statewide totals as Cleveland, Philadelphia, or Pittsburgh.  

If you see Clinton losing 10 points from her RCP average and Obama miraculously gaining 15 in Kentucky... well, good luck.  


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Thu May 01, 2008 at 01:16:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Momentum Looks Like (none / 0)

Things will get better for Obama.  It had gotten so bad, that Limbaugh was going to redirect operation Chaos participants to vote for Obama instead of Hillary, but he changed his mind last night, saying that Obama had regained his footing with the Wright denunciation.  A switch of Operation Chaos voters to Obama would have probably inflicted a mortal blow to Hillary's nomination chances.  So, you folks got a nice reprieve from your "friend" in the right wing media!


by LordMike on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:17:55 PM EST

How many delegates is "momentum" worth? (none / 0)

I still fail to see how she can garner 70% of the ones that remain.  And I think the backlash against Rev. Wright will soon dwarf the negative effect he's had on Obama.  

And if Wright will make Obama a bad GE candidate, then how will Wright's photo with Bill Clinton during Monicagate play?  And which campaign will rake McCain over the coals with Hagee's highlight reel?

I don't think the goalposts are where most think they are.


by Jenius on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:18:13 PM EST

Supers can vote anyway they please. (2.00 / 1)

Potentially momentum is worth 100% of Super Delegates.

But more likely momentum, electability and popular vote total is worth 70% to 30% SDs which is enough.


by DTaylor on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:25:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Supers can vote anyway they please. (none / 0)

I should hope so, since that's what she needs.

69% ain't gonna cut it.


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:26:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Supers can vote anyway they please. (none / 0)

Popular vote total. If we count Michigan. And not the caucuses. Or something.

Listen, hate to burst your bubble, but the only people including MI in pop vote totals are hard-core Hillary supporters.


by