Drip . . . drip . . . drip!

I think the problem for Kos, and many other obama supporters

we don't want another NH or Ohio, we don't want to start saying he can win, so that when he loses Hillary gets more momentum.

so you will see Obama supporters slower then usual before we admit we think he can actually carry the state.

Todd, you amaze me in how much of a Clinton spinster you've become.

This sentence is astounding:

"Closing the gap with Clinton is nothing we haven't seen before from Obama and in fact is good for Clinton, as long as she can leave election day the same way she left California and Ohio: with a victory that far out-performs expectations."

Who defines the expectations here?  Certainly it seems that you are in favor of the low expectation/move the goalposts at the last minute strategy.

Even if Clinton wins by 10-15 points, blowing the lead that she had a month ago down to this margin scares the hell out of me for her chances come November.

When the real campaign for a state begins, it seems her large leads (where she has them even) dwindle to the point of teetering...

And Obama isn't hitting her NEARLY as hard as McCain would be in the GE.

I don't believe they've published their geographic distribution for PA.  I need to see that to tell if the poll has any merit.

Only on this web site, the last refuge of the delusional Billarybots can a reduced lead from 20% to 5% be deemed to be good for Hillary.

On the other hand, this is good for people who actaully want to improve America from it's humiliating embaressments over the last 8 years.

and no one knows yet who's going to win.  we (obama) have a fantastic ground operation here and the voters here are looking really hard at both candidates but that doesn't mean that we know yet where it will end.  i wouldn't bet against hillary because she has to win pennsylvania...

Clinton won the popular vote in Texas by seven percent (a rounded figure, I'm sure)--not four percent!  Don't you just love deceptive pollsters (Think Rasmussen and Bush approval numbers).

"There are lies, damnable lies, then there are statistics." -- Anonymous

How will Pennsylvania turn out?  Who knows; we will see.

Your expectations setting is way off.

Hillary could win PA by 30 points and she would still lose the nomination so it isn't enough for her to just beat expectations.

She also has to beat her opponent.

Please...please don't believe thus diary. They are trying to set expectaions to help her. Obama will not win in PA.

Please understand that.

I don't care about the expectations game.  The closing polling gap is horrendous news for Clinton.  She is running out of states with enough population to make a dent in the popular vote metric that's never been a factor in the nomination process in the past, but that she suddenly wants to mean everything now.

It means that she will not put a dent into the delegate gap (you know, the metric that's actually valid in the nomination contest) and that N.C. will expand the delegate gap rather then make up for PA.  This means that the number of Super Delegates that she has to  talk into doing what there is absolutely no chance the Super Delegates will do ends up growing... again.

Pretty soon the gap will be so large that Barack can even let her seat the delegates "as is" from those farcical contests in January in Michigan and in that red state without it making any difference.  He shouldn't, but he could.

The squandering of a chance to make any dent in the math with the only remaining sizable population or delegate count (aside from N.C. where she has no chance) is a campaign ender.  Even a 15 point win in PA wouldn't really make that much difference anyway.

Hilary supporters don't want to see it, but this campaign is over and has been for a long time.

Here's the part where someone says: "Nope.  He hasn't hit the magic number yet."  I will concede that only insofar as it is true that a guy who jumps off of the rim of the Grand Canyon isn't a dead dude until he hits the ground even though his fate was sealed upon departing the soil.

I'm not sure if the Obama +2 is correct or not. What I really, really doubt is that there was a 28 point shift. There's no way both of PPP's polls can be right. And if you can be wrong once, then you can be wrong twice.

poll they had an issue with but still this seems a bit off.

For one thing I think that women will make up more than 55% of the electoral I think around 57%.  Secondly I think that 65+ will be a larger portion of the electorate than 24%.  I think that the AA count is low by a few percent.

Those changse probably puts Clinton up by 1%.

Also PPP had the mammoth change in the NC polls as well, maybe this is from reapplying a different turnout model than the previous poll.

The expectations game has kind of ceased to matter. I don't see the point in a "come from behind" (whatever that might mean given her recent 20% lead) 3-5% victory for Clinton. That wouldn't give her the delegates or the popular vote she'd need, so what good would the exceeded expectations be?

I don't understand this new round of "...this is excellent news! For HILLARY!" It's nonsensical. The expectations game is fun for the media, and will continue to be, but clearly the delegate math has killed it dead.

Read closely...There's some good credit to mydd in there.

No, Really. Hillary Has a Decent Shot.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/article s/2008/04/no_really_hillary_has_a_decent .html

Ed Rendell knows his people right?

PPP made a shift in their polling sample just before WI, iirc, and since then, have been right on. Obama is outspending by 5:1 on TV, so he's bringing voters to undecided, but I bet they'll wind up back with CLinton, just not all of them.

even though I would prefer HRC as prez, if she loses she loses. the BHO zealots will still be jerks and trolls but they don't matter nearly as much as they imagine :)

Note that on Tuesday, Clinton's average lead was just under 16 points. Closing the gap with Clinton is nothing we haven't seen before from Obama and in fact is good for Clinton, as long as she can leave election day the same way she left California and Ohio: with a victory that far out-performs expectations. As I wrote last week, her consistent double digit lead had made PA a will-win rather than a must-win for her. As Obama closes the gap, as he is wont to do, PA swiftly once again becomes a must-win for Clinton, which once again gives her an opportunity to gain momentum out of the state and likely means there will be an actual race there for the next 3 weeks (good news for those poor Pennsylvanians who won't feel ignored anymore...

Talk about building castles in the air....

It's good that Hillary has lost her 30% lead because now she can clam a great comeback if she squeaks by!

Oy gevalt!

Keep playing those mind games.

...of losing PA by 3 points but having it called a Clinton win and losing PA by 10 points but having it called good for Obama, I'll choose the former.  The expectations go away after a day or two when the damage of having a large state go away without making a dent in delegate or popular vote counts kicks in.

It's past expectations at this point. PA with it's size and Hillary friendly demographics is the last chance for Hillary to get a huge gain in the popular vote and a win big enough to really set back Obama's campaign going into the final races.

Not only Murtha but Gov. Jon Corzine has said if Hillary does not get the popular vote it's over for her. Corzine said under those circumstances he could switch his vote. If it's single digits it's over. It may not end officially until May or June but the outcome will be set in stone.

Whatever happened to the fact that Clinton needs 60-70% of the remaining delegates to overtake Obama? She won't get them by squeaking by and claiming she's Rocky.

Or has it all boiled down to the equally forlorn gambit of using spin and twisted illogic to convince the supers to overturn the popular will?

Todd, talk about what really needs to happen for Clinton to make headway into this primary (contextualize your posts please).

For example, how well does Hillary really need to be in PA to come out in decent shape? include FL, exclude FL, whatever.

I believe the expectations game matters.

A Hillary win by 1 vote in PA is still a 'win' for her and her campaign (rightfully so).  The confetti will come down, the media will gush that Hillary is back on track and the media narrative, for at least a day or two, will be all warm and fuzzy for Hillary.

Will it change the actual dynamic of the nomination race.  No!  But that doesnt matter.

Since Im in the math camp, to me, it doesnt matter what Hillary does in PA as I believe its over already.  But a Hillary win (even by 1 vote) will give Hillary enough maneuver room to keep things afloat longer.  As long as she wins, she stays in, even if she was expected to win by 40% and wins by 1 vote, its a win.

I think PA is time for Obama to come in for the kill (and please do not take this as some sort of dis against Hillary - I just mean in a campaign competition sense).  Obama needs to win a big one.  A slight loss, while maybe a moral victory and furthering the math outcome, is not a victory.

Obama needs to show he can beat Hillary in her backyard.  That will go a long way to changing the primary narrative, shutting down the primary and giving Obama a good national boost in the eyes of the whole electorate that he went into Clinton country and won.

This will give him some 'street cred' in the broader political world outside of us blog commenters.

I dont want this primary to slowly crawl to an end counting each and every delegate along the way.  I want a knockout punch to finish it.

All that said, I dont buy Obama winning PA.  Ill maintain my skepticism thank you very much.  I still think Hillary will win PA with +10% to +15%.  Hillary is a tough candidate and this is her turf.  Overconfidence by Obama, his campaign and his supporters would be mislpaced, in my humble opinion.

Ill gladly be proven wrong on April 23rd if thats the case.

Anything else there is a loss for her.  This state is supposed to contain "Hillary voters".

I do not trust these "closer" polls.  Hillary will win in Pennsylvania, but anything but an enormous win for her will be a loss.

If she is so popular in Pennsylvania and Obama is so "unelectable", why isn't her lead in the polls increasing?  Perhaps the actual voting will give her the huge victory that she needs to make her case.

There is a definite polling pattern in states that Clinton tends to win.

Initially, Clinton starts off with a big lead. When the campaigning begins, Obama surges and sometimes even takes the lead. But once it gets close to election day, Clinton surges again. I think Pennslyvania will continue this pattern and Clinton will win by about 10 points.

The pattern is due to Obama's charisma and money advantage. People fall in love with Obama. But as election day closes in, people get cold feet and go back to Clinton.

Anybody hear want to remember Ohio?  Same thing happened. The polls all tightened just before the vote.  I think I can remember some even showing HRC losing in the Ohio polls.

What happened?  She crushed him.

I expect the same thing in PA.