MyDD :: Clinton Closing The Gap In NC

by HSTruman on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 01:47:56 PM EST

If she meets the "benchmarks," she obviously will keep going. However, if she wins Indianna by 5-6 points and loses NC by 9, I'm not sure how that really gets her any closer to the nomination.

I proudly support Barack Obama for President!

And vice versa for Obama.

by Zeitgeist9000 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 01:57:12 PM EST
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by HSTruman on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 01:58:37 PM EST
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She's gotta convince 70% of the remaining supers to go her way. Doing the math off the top of my head, I'm pretty sure that's harder than convincing 30% of the supers, but I was a liberal arts guy in college.

I proudly support Barack Obama for President!

With a boogie man named Wright looming large in the GE, it might be a little easier.

by Zeitgeist9000 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 01:59:27 PM EST
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by sunnyaz08 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 02:08:05 PM EST
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Current superdelegate support is not set in stone - they can always change their minds. Either candidate's number of superdelegates can evaporate if party officials believe a candidate is no longer viable. I don't see this happening yet, but if Clinton or Obama pull off double wins next week it could happen.

http://www.talkleft.com/story/2008/4/29/ 113359/438

Todd, you should update with SUSA that just came out, which shows Obama up by only 5 points in NC:

TexasDarlin blog

by TexasDarlin on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 01:48:47 PM EST

Re: Clinton Closing The Gap In NC (2.00 / 2)

This race is always taking turns. If Clinton wins NC and IN or atleast IN by a fairly healthy margin and NC is close, the supers will definately start taking notice. It's time for Obama fans to realize Obama pre Feb 5 its not the same Obama post-Wright to the American people.

by werd2406 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 01:52:32 PM EST

by zane on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 01:52:43 PM EST

and if she does pull of both Todd, will you join us for a drink and celebrate?! If she does pull off both i think she will be the nominee.

Re: Clinton Closing The Gap In NC (2.00 / 3)

Things are looking good. I'd like to see Hillary try to make some inroads with the AA vote in North Carolina. It's tough to do, with the media slant and racial gauntlet-dropping like Clyburn's, but I think she's up to it. She has a long, proud record to run on.

by bobbank on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 01:54:32 PM EST

If you had everything, where would you put it?

Easley always got strong support from AA's. His endorsement definitely will help.

by wasanyonehurt on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 02:04:32 PM EST
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by bobbank on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 02:13:19 PM EST
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Hey, you live in NC? What's the local media coverage been like?

If you had everything, where would you put it?

Local media is generally pro-Obama with the mayor here in Greensboro coming out for him as well as the local paper. However, there has been plenty of notariety from the local and national media on the RNC Obama-Wright TV ad attacking our governor candidates.

Easley coming out for Hillary is really the first crack and of course we're waiting to see if Elizabeth Edwards or even Edwards himself comes out for her which would probably cause another 2-3% move for her.

We've got a lot of enthusiam on the ground here for her, probably the best I've seen so far.

by wasanyonehurt on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 02:25:27 PM EST
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Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

Obama is looking like he is ceding Indiana and concentrating on NC .

Either because he thinks Indiana is out of reach and he wants a big margin in NC or maybe NC is slipping like the polls suggest.

That is how it seems.

by lori on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 01:55:53 PM EST

by BDM on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 01:59:45 PM EST
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The early voting is giving Obama A BIG LEAD. OVER 170,000 VOTES HAVE ALREADY BEEN CAST.Obama is up by 63-31. Early voting goes until May 3rd in NC.

by bobbank on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 02:14:32 PM EST
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That's not really a lead. Just a matter of timing.

Momentumless primary. (none / 0)

Obama made up some ground in PA, but not nearly enough to win. Clinton may shave a few points off Obama in NC, but I'm pretty darn sure it's still going to be double digits.

As for IN, either she can prolong the contest by winning, or he can put her away. Just like the last five inconclusive primaries.

by corph on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 01:56:57 PM EST

by mikeplugh on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 01:59:46 PM EST

"The benchmark for Clinton's May 6th success right now looks like she needs to win Indiana and keep Obama to 10 points in North Carolina."

Uh.....what benchmark? What does that do for her? I'm not trying to be combative, but she has to win every remaining state 65%-35% in order to have a shot at the delegate count. The super gap has closed, as of noon today, to 17 or 18. What benchmark works in her favor, losing a state?

by werd2406 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 02:02:30 PM EST
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You seem not to think that supers can change their mind when they want? You really think if the campaign continues to play out like this and Obama cant stop the bleeding, the supers are going to stay with him?

Re: New Indiana poll Obama 47 Clinton 45 (none / 0)

A new poll released today shows that the Democratic Presidential Primary race in Indiana is too close to call. The second Howey-Gauge Poll shows that Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 47 to 45 percent. Among likely Democratic voters, they are tied at 46 percent. In the race for the Democratic Nomination for Governor, Jill Long Thompson holds a lead over her opponent Jim Schellinger, 45 to 27 percent. In the Seventh Congressional District Democratic Primary, Andre Carson has 45 percent to Dr. Woody Myers' 27 percent. State Representative David Orentlicher has seven percent and Carolene Mays has four percent.

by BDM on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 02:06:10 PM EST
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by mikeplugh on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 02:08:52 PM EST
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Uh...yes. At least in large enough numbers that she can't win. I'm not blind to the trend right now, but what intelligent, experienced politician is going to come out publicly in favor of either candidate and then switch at the last minute? Maybe 5% or less of them would do that. I'm betting it's 1-2% at best.

Counting on politicians to say something in public and then switch is a crazy strategy. It doesn't happen very often because you're on the record, accountable, and risk much, much more by flipping than staying the course. If a pol sticks to their guns after making a public commitment, it's safe. If they flip, it's a risk that they'll lose a big part of their electoral base. It makes no sense.

by markjay on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 03:11:26 PM EST
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I'm not blind to the trend right now, but what intelligent, experienced politician is going to come out publicly in favor of either candidate and then switch at the last minute?

Would you consider John Lewis to be intelligent and experienced? He came out on behalf of Hillary Clinton and then changes his support to Barack Obama. If there were a strong movement among party leaders and uncommitted super delegates to back Hillary Clinton (perhaps under the conditions that she select Obama as a VP, and based on further changes in their demonstrated electoral popularity in remaining states as outlined below), do you consider it inconceivable that John Lewis might change his vote again? And, if he did, is he the only one that could?

Let's imagine a scenario in which Hillary does better than expected on May 6 (wins Indiana solidly--which Obama himself called a "tiebreaker," and crushes Obama among white voters in North Carolina, losing the state by a small margin), defeats Obama by huge margins in West Virginia, Kentucky, and Puerto Rico, ekes out surprise victories in 2 or more of the other remaining primaries (Guam, Oregon, South Dakota, and Montana), and ends up with a popular vote lead, even if Michigan is excluded from the count. Let's further say that polls at that time show that Obama is showing very weak support from White, Latino, and Asian voters, and is running 10+ points behind Clinton in general election match-ups vs. McCain.

In such a situation, I'm pretty confident that Hillary would win the nomination, through some combination of gaining new super delegates, gaining switches in super delegates, gaining Edwards delegate, pick-ups from other delegates (such as those still being decided at county and state conventions), a decision to seat Michigan and Florida delegations, etc.

by protothad on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 07:28:14 PM EST
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Youch... thats a lot of ifs. I'm not saying it isn't possible, but you must admit that even with Clinton's recent momentum, you make it sound like she still has a mucher steeper climb to the nomination than Obama at this point.

Mind you, don't mistake that observation as a call for her to drop out. I think as long as the supers are leaving the result in doubt, she has a right to stay in, and her supporters will feel cheated if she were to drop out now. We need the end of this thing to seem legitimate to both sides, otherwise we risk demotivating a large slice of the base.

by Cycloptichorn on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 02:12:16 PM EST
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It's not that they can't, it's that they won't.

A huge number of these s-d's are elected officials. Obama supporters in large part make up half or more then half of their constituents. The backlash to over-turning the pledged delegate count could be severe.

If they go with Obama, who has the pledged delegate lead, they have an excuse: they were honoring the electoral process and the will of the people who voted. There is no such excuse for overturning the pledged delegate leader, and the elected officials care about their jobs more then anything else...

by souvarine on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 02:23:35 PM EST
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Works both ways. If Obama's elected SDs in red states, where his campaign has proudly touted SD support, sense that Obama is becoming poison to their constituents they will drop him.

by werd2406 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 02:23:45 PM EST
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Actually, they would have a great reason if Obama continues to be damaged goods. If Obama's campaign continues down this path, he becomes a one arm and one legged man in a boxing match. You really think the supers are going to say...

Future:
"Even though Obama's stock has been free falling and the polls are saying he's going to get his ass kicked....let's give it to him anyway"

No, if Obama can stop the bleeding then sure I can see them still awarding him the nomination...but most of his delegates came on Feb.5 BEFORE this whole Wright controversy came out...now that it is, the supers will go with who can be the stronger candidate in Nov...now that can still very well be Obama...but so far he hasn't show much of being able to stop the bleeding and hasn't done a lot to really try.

by deminva on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 02:28:09 PM EST
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I totally agree with you, especially since Obama is already leading Clinton among SD governors and senators and down only one in representatives. Clinton's dwindling SD lead relies upon her strong support among unelected SDs--DNC officials and others. This group might be the most likely to change endorsements; because they're the group among which Obama does worst, he's less susceptible to being hurt this way.

Nevertheless, we may be seeing the next relocation of the goalposts: the claim that the race isn't over because superdelegates can change their minds. It is of course technically true, but will we really be treated to this argument if/when Obama has on paper a majority of delegates? A variation of this argument would be that 2025 wouldn't be a majority if MI and FL counted. I don't see how Clinton or her senior advisers could get away with this argument; if/when Obama gets sufficient pledged and superdelegates to be the presumptive nominee, I think she'll be forced to concede. But I guess this could be the scorched-earth endgame: It ain't over 'til it's over, and I'm a fighter, and these results aren't official. Gee, I hope not.

by SaveElmer on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 02:09:20 PM EST
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You are under the delusion that all Obama has to do is have a slim delegate lead at the end of the primary season. As I am sure you are aware the requirment is for 2025 delegates...Obama will not have that at the end of this, and neither will Hillary. Supers will decide. Hillary has to get a large majority of those. A large hurdle, but by no means an impossible one. And if her momentum continues, a less onerous looking one every day!!

by deminva on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 02:19:33 PM EST
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I'm not trying to pick a fight, but that task is indeed becoming more onerous by the day. Before the PA primary, Clinton needed something like 64% of the remaining pledged delegates to overcome that deficit. After a 9-point win, she now needs something like 70% of the remaining pledged delegates to overcome that deficit. Decidedly more onerous. And because no one is predicting that she'll win 70% of the delegates available in NC and IN -- and because they're both pretty good-sized states -- that percentage will go up steeply after their primaries.

Similarly, Obama has picked up three more superdelegates in the past two days. With every new SD endorsement of Obama, the percentage of the remaining SDs Clinton would need to win the nomination ticks up inexorably. So her task has gotten just that much tougher since Sunday.

Obama's overall delegate margin is somewhere around 140 to 150, with a diminishing number of available delegates (of any sort). At some point, Clinton is going to need 75% of the remainder to win. Then 80%, and so on.

And as the percentage increases, so will the odds against her succeeding, if only because of perceptions of fairness. It would be one thing for her to argue, after the final primaries, that it would be no big deal if the remaining superdelegates split 60-40 in her favor to give her the nomination. But to argue that it's perfectly fine for the undeclared SD's to support her 80-20 or 90-10? That seems to me to be a very tough argument to pass off on the voters.

by SaveElmer on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 02:23:31 PM EST
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She has to get to the convention keeping Obama under the required number. If she does, it's anyone's ballgame at that point...

I for one am not afraid of going into the convention without a set nominee...I think that would actually be better for Democratic prospects than the obverse.

I would also note that pledged Supers have changed their allegiances in this campaign already...

Three months is a long time in politics...anything can happen. I agree Obama is still the favorite to win...but he does not have it locked up...

As evidence...I present President Seward...

by werd2406 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 02:26:39 PM EST
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Well...I'm not in favor of it going to the convention nor do I think it will...but if the primary's start really going toward Clinton and Obama still hasn't done anything to stop this Wright controversy, then I can definitely see the supers migrating toward Clinton after June 3

by deminva on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 02:30:40 PM EST
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I'm sincerely interested in why you think it would be better not to have a set nominee before the convention -- to avoid a single target for McCain and the Republicans to take aim at?

I think the contested primaries have been a net plus for us, because of all the new voter registration and activism, but I'm not eager for this nomination battle to go much beyond June 4.

And sure, some SDs have changed allegiance, but very few.

by SaveElmer on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 02:35:29 PM EST
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That is one reason...McCain is not able to focus his attack. I haven't seen any real evidence that this fight is hurting Dem prospects...

And going into the convention without a nominee will focus attention on the Democratic Party for a whole week. People will actually watch the convention...and ultimately the Democratic message will get out more widely than is usual for a canned affair. And ultimately I imagine you will have Obama and Clinton on the stage together at the end holding hands in the air to tumultuous cheers...

by deminva on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 03:08:54 PM EST
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Thanks for the answer. I appreciate it. And I earnestly hope that you're wrong about that final image.

by SaveElmer on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 03:15:40 PM EST
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I didn't necessarily mean on the same ticket (though I think that would be a good thing)...I meant as a demonstration of reconciliation in the party...

by deminva on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 07:48:55 PM EST
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I'm all for that!

by mikeplugh on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 02:28:41 PM EST
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My point exactly. I have no particular anti-Hillary thing in mind. I support Obama, but I recognize that we're fighting over two candidates with big flaws. Either one of them presents us with a choice, and that choice is primarily about style of leadership. Ideologically, they're close on some things and further on others. I choose the Obama side.

That said, I don't see how she can mathematically pull this out. The post above this says it perfectly. If Obama has a 125 point delegate lead and they're about even in supers. There's only going to be 275 remaining for her to make up the difference. She'd have to win 200 of the 275 to tie him. That means 73% of remaining supers. If the spread is 130, 140, 150 the percentage goes up to 80%-85% of remaining. Counting on her to grab 2-3% of the Obama supers would still have this thing too tough to manage.

I know the Hillary camp wants to keep this thing open based on a recent turn in her favor. That's great. There is always a chance. The problem is, that chance is growing more UNLIKELY by the day, not more likely. It is what it is.

by cc on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 02:06:29 PM EST

Now if Elizabeth Edwards would endorse her health care plan publicly, I think HRC has a shot at the state. A longshot, but still a shot.

Things have really turned around.

by alex100 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 02:33:01 PM EST
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i don't mind that "things have really turned around" seeing two more SDs siding with Obama today.

Since PA on the SD count: Obama 7, Clinton 3.

Restore America's Strength.

At this point, I still think Obama will win by double digits, but Clinton can make this a dingle digit win and take this race through June 3. If she gets through May 6, I think it should be her goal to beat Obama in at least one of either OR, SD or MT.

by RJEvans on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 02:33:18 PM EST

I proudly support Barack Obama for President!

Dingle digit? Dirty.

by Zeitgeist9000 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 02:41:28 PM EST
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