Hillary won PA and the issue was discussed in the media, and before Jerry Wright decided to speak at the NAACP and say the things he did. We'll see how this makes Indiana play out

Nothing winning can't cure .

Win Indiana/NC , he is the man , and all of this other stuff goes down the crapper.

Lose Indiana and win NC by a hair and he continues his troubles.

Hillary vs McCain wins more independents than Obama vs McCain as per this link.

If this is true or believed to be true at DNC head quarters Obama is FINISHED.

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsm emo.com/2008/04/associated_press_poll_hi llary.php

Obama has fallen into a bit of a trap here. His real problem with working class people is that his policies do not address their concerns. But rather than adjusting his policies he buys into the caricature of working class voters, goes on Fox News, spews a bunch of Republican pro-business talking points and hopes that will endear him to people who are economically pressed.

It's absurd, his buying into the media caricature just makes him seem more out of touch.

There's no question there's been a change in the dynamics of this race over the past 14 days. I don't know whether it was the debate and his lack lustre performance, the defeat in PA which was actually pretty bad and really confirmed the thesis of his weakness with the blue collar working and middle classes, a growing sense that this woman has some grit, the Wright affair which is pretty trivial but then so was all the swift boat bs, but somethings happening. It's been clear to me for months that he would have a tough time in the general with the trad Democratic/indy base you need to win as a Democratic candidate. It's been showing up for months in the numbers for all these primaries particularly in the big states. I don't know whether the superdelegates are going ot have an epiphany but I'm starting to sense some unease amongst the liberal chattering classes who are as desperate as anyone here to see a democrat in the white house. If she does well in Indiana and is close in NC then there has to be a lot of head scratching going on.  

So when Obama wins North Carolina by 20 percent where are we then? Posturing and bad press days aren't going to keep the African-American vote from going heavily for Obama with the requisite number of white votes to make it a landslide.

Yes, his former pastor is taking his fifteen and making it into a movement.

A movement to sell books and throwing Obama under the bus.

This is the biggest self inflicted train wreck I have ever witnessed.

It so ugly even mcwar backed off.

So get over it, come back when you get it out of your system and lets unite with a winner, Hillary Clinton to win this time.

and that is it... nothing more. she was up by 30 and won by 9. umm and the delegate count plus was a little over ten.

In contrast, Mc Crypt Keeper wants us in Iraq for a hundred years and embraces Bush's legacy.

Talk about out of touch ....

If Obama periodically feels down, most likely this down period is caused by the shadow over his shoulder called Rev Wright.

Is in a weird place right now and its in some ways a good thing and in others a bad thing.

The good thing is hes essentially got the pledged delegates wrapped up which makes him the front runner for the nomination based on the primary metric of the primary, but the supers can do whatever they want so its not 'in the bag' yet.  So he has to keep running from the front and its in his best interest to play safe.

But he was and is at his best when he was the underdog.  Not that hes bad at leading from the front, its just not his core strength.  So he wants to hedge his bets a bit more now and keep all dems on side.  He cant be seen to be kneecapping Hillary but he cant be seen to be weak.  He has to find some balance in there.  What that balance is, Im not sure.

In the end, though, its always good to be in the lead than behind.

The bad thing is the media.

The media is biased in favor of one thing - themselves.  They have no interest in this contest being over so no matter the facts, until a nominee is selected, they will stoke the flames of this primary for all its worth.  And I think the inverse would be true if the facts were reversed.  Its not a candidate bias, its a medias self interest bias.

This bias gives Hillary a lot of breathing room and latitude right now to take it to Obama hard with little room for recourse on his part.  Part of his lack of recourse is self inflicted by being the candidate of hope/change and 'new politics', hes boxed in on how he can attack.  

And Hillary's opening isnt going to close while there is a slight ray of sunshine, even though its fleeting and pretty much a chimera, so what choice does she have?  Shes way too invested to just lay down now.

So Obama is going to take a beating the next few weeks because he cant 'close the deal' without supers jumping and the supers wont jump as long as Obama cant 'close the deal'.  So the media will call him weak and question if he has what it takes.  I mean Obama is going to get beat down hard.

Its a catch-22.  Hes in the lead, but hes not home yet and his options are limited.

The media will not let Obama be the inspirer again while the nomination process is ongoing.  That ship has sailed.  He no longer will get any play out of hope/change and yes we can line either.  The media wants a fight and they are going to push for it and reward whomever provides it best.

So I believe Obama will see a slight erosion in all the remaining races.  He will lose Indiana (slightly), he will win NC (not by as much as hoped) and so on.  This will allow the fight to go to the convention which the media will salivate over like pvalovs dogs.  This will keep the undeclared supers enough at bay because no super wants to the bane of the medias existence for cutting short one of the best parties ever.

Remember, the media wants this and they will make it happen.  Dont get me wrong, I say this not out of sour grapes, it is what it is.  Until the nomination is settled the media will bash the front runner and elevate the trailer.

If Clinton were to take the 'narrative' lead in the media, the media would turn on her in a heart beat and start trumpeting the 'disenfranchisement of the AA and youth vote' meme and the 'Hillary would eat her own child to get the nominatio' meme or the 'going against the will of the voters' meme.

All I care about is we end it with enough clarity that we can unite behind a candidate with enough time to mount a successful GE campaign.

best run campaign we have seen in many years expected to just coast through to the nomination without his opponent(s) smearing him, without a swiftboating attack or two, some gratuitous mudslinging, some paparazzi-style press nonsense?

Obama and his campaign know what they are doing.  And since it seems to be working up to now, no reason for anyone to think they don't have a plan for any contingency.  Hell, even the Rev. Wright issue was anticipated.

In spite of alot of concern trolling about how badly this has hurt/is hurting/will hurt him, he is realtively unscathed.  Why is that?  Because he handled it properly.

And why did he go on Faux?  Because he will be president of the entire country, including the wingnuts who only watch that silly station.  Time for him to let them look him over on their turf, time for him to show he's a regular guy not some scary Muslim or whatever they think.

Obama supporters are on the winning team. Let the opposition get mired in hysteria while y'all just keep your eyes on the prize.