In 2004 Bush won Ohio by roughly 120,000 votes over Kerry. How did he do it? General consensus is he upped evangelical turnout nationwide through ballot proposals - and Kerry's relatively poor fumbling on religious issues. And, the GOP gamed the Ohio race. That is partly true, and I have an upcoming diary about religious voters in the 2008 election being the key swing voting block, but there was a bleep in the Ohio exit polling data which goes mostly unnoticed. Generally people see a demographic group that breaks at a 90% level and simply write it off. But elections are games of margins. And in Ohio we saw an interesting margin develop:
National African-American Bush - 10% (-2 2000) Kerry – 89% (+2 2000)
Ohio African-Americans Bush - 17% (+8 2000) Kerry – 83% (-8 2000)If you remember the Bush Campaign pushed the African American community pretty hard. Bush strategist attempted way to break the Democratic Stronghold through Gays and Abortion driven issues… they sent in Bob Johnson amongst others. But most of us just laughed off the futility. Yet, it turns out the over performance in the Black Community in Ohio is what created a large porting of the Gap. To a degree Bush’s emphasis on religious issues did push him over the top in Ohio. Many of us wondered last week about the NC GOP’s ad being disavowed by the national GOP. No the GOP did not grow a soul. They ran Bush’s 2004 election, and know how it was won. They also know that attacking Rev. Wright, straight out, is not popular in Black Communities. The RNC have enough problems with John McCain’s laughable encounters with Black People. McCain had even been actively campaigning for Black Votes. An interesting press-avail about the Civil Rights movement under the Edmund-Pettus occurred last week. A speech about Race in America with no Black People in the audience. I cannot find the clip of him “dancing” with some Black Ladies later that afternoon… so I’ll just post this classic that gets at the idea McCain, frankly, will doing pretty good if he can go six months without a Perot “You People” statement. Trouble is turns out Black folks have minds, as some in the media seem not to suggest. And, there is no guarantee of Black Folks “coming home” – a phrase straight out of slavery. Rasmussen has poll out, consistent with others, where the write-up states, “Among African-American voters, Obama dominates but Clinton attracts just 59% support.” To win Ohio, Pa, and several other states the Democratic nominee needs to increase Black Turnout and voting percentage from 2004. Perhaps the Black Vote ought not be taken for granted here. Btw. I’m troll rating any comment which discusses who did and who did not play the race card…I’m sick of it. Update Ok, this was just shown to me, with a new ending:
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