Ground report from West Virginia

The Berkeley County Democratic Executive Committee headquarters opened on Friday.

Today, Clem and I both attended the opening today of the Barack Obama headquarters in Martinsburg. Clem took the photos at both events.

Obama HQ opening in Martinsburg.

There are now nine Obama for President headquarter offices in West Virginia, staffed by professionals and volunteers. (Senator Clinton has one in Charleston.)

Sen. Jay Rockefeller spoke at today's Martinsburg event about why he feels so strongly that Obama should be elected president.

Senator Rockefeller and Rep. Nick Rahall are stumping across WV for Obama.

Rockefeller at today's event.

Obama's first move in the state was to meet with 15 of the most conservative ministers in southern West Virginia, Rockefeller said.

It was right after the Rev. Wright controversy and despite that, one of the ministers asked if Obama had taken the oath of office on the Koran (an odd question, particularly since so much attention had been given to the statements from the pulpit of Obama's Christian minister).

Instead of dismissing the question, Obama tackled their questions head-on, Rockefeller said. Obama has confidence in himself and is comfortable with who he is.

"I trust him," Rockefeller said several times.

While I worry sometimes about Rockefeller's judgement on FISA and other matters, I do think that as a popular Democratic senator in the state his validation of Obama will carry sway with many voters. The same is true of Rahall, who is extremely popular in southern West Virginia.

I counted more than 65 people there at the time of Rockefeller's arrival in the afternoon. Several people were still out canvassing and others were next door at the Berkeley County Democratic Executive Committee's headquarters since the Obama hq front room was packed during Rockefeller's speech.

The primary is May 13 but early voting has begun in the state.

While there have now been more signs of Sen. Hillary Clinton's support - a few sign wavers showed up at Friday's event - the effort from her campaign has lagged here in West Virginia despite polls showing her with a lead on Obama overall.

The first email to West Virginia supporters from the West Virginia campaign director came two days after the state held its county conventions to select delegates to the state convention.

In my county, Berkeley, it was 50 out of 52 delegates for Obama.

What that shows is the enthusiasm gap in WV between Obama and Clinton. The Democratic chairs and activists are nearly all in support of Obama across the state despite the fact the polls show Clinton leading by a comfortable margin in West Virginia.

That has resulted in Obama volunteers being much more active at voter registrations, canvassing and phonebanking.

However, the demographics in the state - a state predominantly white with a large percentage of seniors due to the state's friendly tax laws for older people (it's become a good state for people to retire to, like Florida but without terrible drivers  and with fewer hurricanes, though the occasional remnants of the storms do cause occasional flooding here - but not like in Florida which also is plagued by Floridians and alligators).

I disagree with the assessment of DHinMI and others who believe Clinton leads because of racism. While it is true that some West Virginians are racist, it is wrong to say that is why Clinton leads. I believe it's much more complicated than that. Saying it is race relies overmuch on a stereotyped view of the state and of Appalachia in general. McDowell County, the literal heart of Appalachia, is represented by an African American in the House of Delegates. I'll admit others, including a commenter on West Virginia Blue, believe like DHinMI that Clinton's lead is due to the race factor. But I believe better of West Virginians and the vast majority of Clinton's supporters. As I mentioned, the demographics of the state means a large number of seniors who have generally fallen towards Clinton live here. But also I believe many West Virginians see Clinton as bringing a third Bill Clinton term, and many West Virginians liked the Big Dog. He carried the state both times even though the state later went to George W. Bush over Al Gore in 2000.

Still, there's no denying that the vast majority of Democratic activists in the state, the ones who are out campaign after campaign cycle, are much more behind Obama than Clinton. That is certainly one reason why the Obama campaign has such a lead on organizing at the county and precinct levels than the Clinton campaign.

Fellow West Virginia Blue front pager's wvblueguy's report from another Obama event today in his Mercer County details some of the activity.

Commenters at HillaryClinton.com's West Virginia web page were getting anxious about her campaign's slow start.

* I signed up months ago to volunteer for Hillary here in WV.  I have never been contacted.  I am concerned with the BO presence I am seeing in Charleston and so little Hillary presence.  Let's get things going for Hillary!
by west virginia for hillary at 4/14/2008 7:32:21 PM

o Rally
Does anyone know of any planned rally or event.  There is no organization.
by touche at 4/22/2008 6:10:44 PM

I took the advice of fellow posters and have signed up again as a volunteer.  My son and I are also traveling to PA this weekend to help in Pittsburgh.  We also want to be active here in the Charleston area.  I would like to organize some honk/wave groups at major intersections at least for the weekend/Monday before the May 13th primary.  Plus, can we get some signs around Charleston and at some other key locations in the state?  I just spent 8 hours on the road (traveling in WV) and did not see one Hillary sign.  BO signs are all over the east end of Charleston.(emphasis mine. carnacki)  I don't mean to be negative, but I want those who quietly support Hillary to know that there is strong, active support for her in WV.  Thanks WV campaign staff for doing what you can.  
by west virginia for hillary at 4/17/2008 5:27:22 PM

I am originally from WV and have HAVE campaigned in NY where I live and in Ohio and PENN.  I HAVE TRIED TO GET SOMETHING GOING IN THE MERCER AND SURROUNDING COUNTIES AREA, BUT NOTHING IS HAPPENING.  THE MAYOR OF HINTON IS WITH ME, BUT OBAMA HAS A REAL HEAD START.  WE CAN'T LOSE THIS STATE.  THE NEW CAMPAIGN MANAGER HAS NOT RESPONDED TO MY MESSAGES FOR HELP.  ANYTHING GOING ANYONE KNOWS OF PLEASE POST.  WE MUST WORK FAST!!!!!!!QQQQ
by touche at 4/22/2008 12:43:03 PM

I don't believe Clinton will lose, but by the best estimates of those who've really looked at the numbers and the way WV's primary is set up is Clinton gaining +2 to +6 in delegates - nothing to cause a dent in Obama's delegate lead.

Clem, who is a pretty fair judge, estimated the Obama sign wavers outnumbered the Clinton sign wavers by about 4-to-1 on Friday. The sign wavers stretched down the main north-south thoroughfare of the downtown, King Street.

Senator Clinton sign wavers.

Senator Obama supporters

However, at the Berkeley County Democratic Women's Association meeting on Friday night, the Clinton supporters did outnumber the Obama supporters, I'm told, though I did not hear any numbers in attendance.

Gov. Joe Manchin, who as a superdelegate also is said to hold sway over two other superdelegate votes, attended both events and I know supporters of both candidates were trying to impress him. He has remained uncommitted so far.

In addition, the Obama campaign's first television commercial has aired in West Virginia.

In the Eastern Panhandle, which has become an exurb of the D.C. area with half of the work force commuting to D.C., suburban Maryland and northern Virginia each day, the commercial which focuses on gasoline prices should be highly effective. It should also play well in other parts of the state where it can require a lengthy car trip to the nearest supermarket.

I've not seen or heard of any Clinton ads yet in the state, but there would have been some crossover from the Pennsylvania race from both campaigns, particularly in the northern panhandle which is part of the Pittsburgh media market.

UPDATE In debating this with DHinMI at DailyKos, he asked why Obama has done his poorest in Appalachian counties and lower income white voters that have already voted if it's not racism. Regarding Appalachian support for Clinton, it has much more to do with those who are low income or poor feel extremely insecure about the present economy and the future. They are exactly the most likely to find Senator Clinton the most appealing because they see her as a third Bill Clinton term. They felt more secure economically and did better economically when he was president than they do now. Obama is an unknown entity to them. When you're at the end of your rope, you want to reach out for safety not the unknown. Certainly race is a factor with some. And I'm sure the commenters can find many anecdotes to agree that it is race. The problem is writing it all off as race oversimplified it and ignores the much bigger and more complex issues. ... It's not race as nearly much as it is class issues. But that's an even harder issue for people to tackle. UPDATE 2 I also believe once people hear Obama for themselves in Appalachia, they'll find his economic message very appealing to them. The color that matters most to those who feel insecure about the high price of food, gasoline and the loss of jobs is the color green



Display:


Re: Ground report from West Virginia (2.00 / 1)

Well, I guess after North Carolina, I'll be heading to West Virginia to help out where I can.


Hooray for John McCain!
by ragekage on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 11:17:50 PM EST

Re: Ground report from West Virginia (none / 0)

Of the sign wavers, only a couple were recognized by locals so some effort to send Clinton supporters here is taking place already. There were a lot of Virginia tags so it may be coming from there.


by Carnacki on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 11:25:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ground report from West Virginia (2.00 / 1)

Well, I'm sure there'll be Obama supporters from my neck of the woods, too. We're close to the border and Obama won our area heavily, Appalachia or not.


Hooray for John McCain!
by ragekage on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 11:27:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ground report from West Virginia (2.00 / 1)

Keep wishing Carnacki.  And good luck with that.


It does not take many words to tell the truth Chief Joseph - Nez Perce
by Gabriele Droz on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 12:35:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ground report from West Virginia (2.00 / 1)

I don't understand your bitterness and vitriol, Gabrielle. You seem incapable of any sort of positiveness or dialog building... and you're bashing and railing against things you've no evidence about.


Hooray for John McCain!
by ragekage on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 01:01:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Swing state? (2.00 / 1)

Does Hill stand a realistic chance of putting the state in play against McCain in November?  My thought is that she does but I analogize her chances in West Virginia to Obama's chances in Colorado, with Obama's chances being slightly better.

My other thought is that while Clinton/Obama or Obama/Clinton wins this election, putting Obama on the ticket at the top or as vice president would eliminate the possibilty of the state turning blue, just as putting Clinton at the top or as vice president would take Colorado off the map.


by Blazers Edge on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 11:23:00 PM EST

Re: Swing state? (2.00 / 1)

Yep.

Clinton can make Tennessee , WV and KT competitive.

She won't win in TN , but she could pull it off in KT.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 11:27:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Swing state? (2.00 / 1)

Kentucky?  Well, I suppose she's only down two points to McCain in the most recent SurveyUSA poll and the Kentucky trio of Bunning, McConnell, and Beshear is pretty unpopular at the moment.  I just get the sense that her "popularity" among white working class males will fade if she's going against a guy wearing a Navy hat, just as Obama's appeal among independents will drop against the media created maverick.

My question though is whether Clinton/Obama would hurt in Kentucky and WV, two southernish states with small black populations.  I believe that these two will realize that while they don't need each other to win the nomination, they'll need each other to defeat McCain.


by Blazers Edge on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 11:34:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Swing state? (2.00 / 1)

not to mention, President Clinton won Kentucky, closely, but twice. when you factor how Perot took evenly in both elections, his win was probably. Hillary has a shot there, tho you're right about Kentucky being pretty white, and Kentucky may not like a guy like Obama. The winds would favor Clinton.

Also, West Virginia Hillary can def carry, as Bill carried that state by huge margins both times, and no Democrat to win the WH has won without West Virginia since Woodrow Wilson in 1916. Mondale and McGovern were the only Dems to lose WV in the 40 years before Gore lost it. Gore lost it because of two thing: the NRA, and their worries about him and their coal industry. We cannot be too tough on guns, and we must preach clean coal, because coal is king there.


"there is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured by what is right in America"-William Jefferson Clinton, forty-second President of the United States
by DiamondJay on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 12:37:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Swing state? (none / 0)

"We cannot be too tough on guns"

Isn't that going all she wrote for Hill's chances if she is the nominee in a general election?  Both her and Obama get Fs from the NRA.  I believe she even went to his left on this gun issue when she voted for a bill that would have allowed the federal government to confiscate guns during a national emergency.


by Blazers Edge on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 12:59:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Swing state? (none / 0)

still, we gotta try to make voters forget about it. Even if we have to pander and bullshit, this is politics, and we should do that. While Bill Clinton was tough on guns, the NRA never endorsed any of his opponents, which is in part why they lost. The NRA came out hard for Bush, and even harder against Gore. Gore didn't respond to those attacks, which cost him. We can't be too tough, or why may just incense them enough to endorse McCain, which would mean doom


"there is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured by what is right in America"-William Jefferson Clinton, forty-second President of the United States
by DiamondJay on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 01:19:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Swing state? (2.00 / 1)

Eh, we can win the GE without WV. Clean coal is a lie, and not a little white lie. In some ways, even worse than clean coal (and even more important to WV) is mountain top removal (without mountain top removal, WV coal isn't coast competitive any more, so clean coal is irrelevant to WV).

We aren't going to get real movement on global warming if we are pandering to industry with garbage like clean coal, so if we have to pander to the coal industry to win WV, then we need to find a electoral college map that doesn't include WV.


by alephnul on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 05:11:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Swing state? (none / 0)

I have a bridge I can sell you too.  Apologies, but NO way she wins KY.  Her very popular husband won KY by less than  a percentage point in 1996, less than 5 in 1992.  


'The only people for me are the mad ones, desirous of everything at the same time, the ones who never yawn or say a commonplace thing ...'
by stryan on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 02:54:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Swing state? (2.00 / 1)

I'm not convinced by current polls that Hillary has a big advantage over Obama in putting WV in play in November. It's too early for accurate polling of Nov. presidential preferences.

The demographics in W.Va. are tailor-made for Clinton in the Dem. primary. There's a high percentage of people with only a high school education, a low percentage of minorities, and one of the very highest percentage of seniors in the nation.

Carnacki didn't mention it, but one of the reasons for these demographics has been the lack of professional jobs in the state -- there's been a brain drain in the state where a generation of the college educated head elsewhere for jobs. That's a major reason why W.Va. is losing population is many parts of the state and what is left is aging.

I think Obama's message will ultimately sell better in W.Va. vs. McCain than Clinton's will.

In that scenario, once Obama is determined as nominee, Gov. Manchin, Sen. Byrd, and Rep. Mollohan will join Sen. Rockefeller and Rep. Rahall as vocal supporters. their validation of Obama will go a long way among many and, along with the high anti-Republican and wrong-track numbers, will overcome any concerns about trying out something new.


by WVaBlue on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 07:53:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Swing state? (none / 0)

I've seen polls showing Clinton beating McCain in West Virginia, but I don't trust any polls this far out. If you believed polls far out, then we'd be discussing the triumphs of President Dukaksis. McCain finished third in the weird West Virginia GOP caucus that led to a Mike Huckabee win over Mitt Romney, who had finished first, but under 50 percent in the first round. Many of the most vocal GOP people like former Senate Minority Leader Vic Sprouse don't like McCain, but say they'll hold their nose and vote for him.


by Carnacki on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 11:29:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Swing state? (2.00 / 1)

Dukakis actually WON West Virginia. Gore and Kerry are the only two Dems besides McGovern and Mondale to lose that state in the last 50 years. Bill Clinton had huge margins over both George Bush and Bob Dole in that state as well. Jimmy Carter actually carried that state twice, a feat for him considering how badly he lost in 1980. Any Dem who expects to win better hope to carry West Virginia.


"there is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured by what is right in America"-William Jefferson Clinton, forty-second President of the United States
by DiamondJay on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 12:39:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Swing state? (none / 0)

There is no requirement that a Dem win WV to win the GE.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 12:47:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Swing state? (none / 0)

In my opinion, Obama can challenge enough in West Virginia that McCain has to spend money and time here, which benefits in the overall picture.


by Carnacki on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 01:10:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Swing state? (none / 0)

I'm sure he'll run in every state and bleed McCain dry. Though I don't think he needs to win WV to take the GE.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 01:11:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Swing state? (none / 0)

That's true. But one of the reasons I think most of the Democratic activists in the state really like him is because he's not writing off the state despite trailing by the polls and not really needing WV to win. The early investment of resources, though, should pay dividends for all Democratic candidates in the general, though since the volunteers increased registered voters. While the Clinton supporters might wish otherwise, her campaign has treated WV like it has many other states and seen it as one it's not needed. Now that there are few states left and her campaign does need it, it's sent a person here. Sure Clinton will win here, but it won't be with most of the Democrats who do the phone banking and canvassing in cycle after cycle (there are some such as those at the Berkeley County Women's Club, but there's not been any signs of activity from them this cycle). If she ends up being the nominee, there's no way I see her investing any reasons on West Virginia. She'll follow her same primary strategy of putting everything into a few states. That doesn't build the party or help down ticket candidates. That's another reason I think many of the local activists like the Obama approach. There's been a lot more volunteers brought in by it. It's not just the same faces we've seen at past events. I had a commenter in my last diary here dismiss the county convention participants as showing the "elitist Democrats" in action.


by Carnacki on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 01:32:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Swing state? (2.00 / 1)

Oh definitely. Unlike Reaganomics, Obama's campaign organizing should really have a trickle down effect.  Add to that the voter registration drive and there could be a real sea change this year. Dismissing it as anything but helpful is just counterproductive.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 01:36:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Swing state? (none / 0)

I support Obama, but I doubt he can push that state hard... take a look at this article...

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/ge orgepacker/2008/04/the-race-in-eas.html

There's still a lot of racism in Appalachia, especially with the older voters who once lived in segregationist times...  Once that generation passes on, however, in 2016-2020 (when we will be picking a new pres after this one) that demographic will no longer be around...


It profits a PUMA nothing to give their soul for the whole world... but for McCain? --Sir Thomas More (if he were here now)
by LordMike on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 02:51:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Swing state? (none / 0)

the only Dem to win the White House without that state is Woodrow Wilson, who lost the state in 1916, and even his home state of New Jersey and still won re-election. every other Dem who has lost the state has lost the White House, dating back to 1864


"there is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured by what is right in America"-William Jefferson Clinton, forty-second President of the United States
by DiamondJay on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 01:34:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Swing state? (none / 0)

Thank God things change.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 01:37:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Swing state? (none / 0)

Al Gore won!!


by micha1976 on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 06:28:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Swing state? (none / 0)

I know I know, but not decisively enough to avoid the Florida mess. If he had won WV, he'd have been President, with 272 electoral votes.


"there is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured by what is right in America"-William Jefferson Clinton, forty-second President of the United States
by DiamondJay on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 01:16:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Swing state? (2.00 / 1)

"Does Hill stand a realistic chance of putting the state in play against McCain in November?"

Obviously not since she doesn't even stand a realistic chance of being the Democratic nominee.


The choice is simple: A President who voted for the worst of Bush's odius agenda, or one who didn't.
by Liberal Avenger on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 11:55:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Swing state? (none / 0)

Don't you wish...


It does not take many words to tell the truth Chief Joseph - Nez Perce
by Gabriele Droz on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 12:36:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

It's called arithematic. (2.00 / 1)

It's called arithematic.

Chuck Todd: 'Impossible for Obama to Lose His Lead'


The choice is simple: A President who voted for the worst of Bush's odius agenda, or one who didn't.
by Liberal Avenger on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 01:09:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's called arithematic. (none / 0)

I've seen lots of "impossibles" before.

GIVE 'EM HELL, HILL.


by stefystef on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 01:47:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Swing state? (none / 0)

States dont turn on a VP candidate.  Obama is going to win this state, regardless if Hillary is a VP candidate.


'The only people for me are the mad ones, desirous of everything at the same time, the ones who never yawn or say a commonplace thing ...'
by stryan on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 02:53:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ground report from West Virginia (none / 0)

Both states are not terribly good for Obama.

And those that claim Obama is not doing well in Appalachia because of his race are wrong .

There are some that won't vote for him on that basis obviously but it is wrong to paint with such a broad brush.

I am going to take a drive to volunteer in Kentucky/West Virginia as the primary gets closer , but from my little perch in Tennessee , Obama would be defeated handily .


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 11:25:49 PM EST

Re: Ground report from West Virginia (none / 0)

Lori! You've been drafted; people think highly of you!

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/4/26/2254 4/5722


Hooray for John McCain!
by ragekage on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 11:28:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Interesting (none / 0)

to see the planning gap between the two campaigns, there aren't enough Clinton's to hold rallies everywhere (though Bill is a machine [i mean this in a good way] from the sources I've seen in OR.


Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!
by Student Guy on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 11:26:28 PM EST

Re: Ground report from West Virginia (2.00 / 2)

"I disagree with the assessment of DHinMI and others who believe Clinton leads because of racism."

Unfortunately, a case in point on the haters that have become the voice of supporters for Obama on the net all too often.

Thanks for the report. Obama will narrow the delegate lead, and the popular vote, to about a 10 or so point margin.


by Jerome Armstrong on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 11:34:29 PM EST

You are bold! (none / 0)

Jerome, I appreciate your willingness to stick your neck out on a prediction (thanks for your comment in my final PA math diary)

I would wager around 22%.  It is like PA in that the demographics are very favorable for her, and it is Appalachia where Obama has had great troubles.


Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!
by Student Guy on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 11:42:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ground report from West Virginia (2.00 / 1)

Jerome, I read the post at DailyKos by DHinMI regarding the prospect of racial attitudes in Appalachia. Did you? It was very thoughtful. Elizabeth Drew (who had an excellent article in the New York Review of Books on Clinton's campaign problems) was quoted, as was George Packer from the New Yorker, who had interviewed voters who frankly stated that they wouldn't vote for Obama because he is black. There was a map showing concentrations of votes for Obama and Clinton. There was plentiful thoughtful analysis.

The conclusion DHinMI reached was this: "I disagree, obviously, with Packer's conclusion that Obama's race is a serious political problem; I think it's only a serious problem if he needed majorities in Appalachia or he was trying to appeal to streadfast [sic]Republicans who vote Republican for, among other reasons, racism."

If you didn't read it and made the above comment, you are completely unreliable and nobody should listen to you.

If you did read it and still said that this was "a case in point of the haters," you are a damned liar.

This is scurrilous, even for you.


by anoregonreader on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 12:17:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Serious question. (1.00 / 2)

If Clinton walks into Denver behind on pledged delegates and walks out the nominee how can she win the GE?

You're a political analyst but I haven't seen a post on that yet. It'd be interesting to hear your thoughts.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 12:20:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ground report from West Virginia (none / 0)

C'mon Jerome, really?

Every time?

Is HRC paying you?

Obama loses WV because of race.  He can make it a game in Charleston and Morgantown but lose, probably by about the same margin he lost PA, but he's gonna get smoked in the rural areas.

Dude, Ed freakin' Rendell said Obama was going to lose PA because of race!

Is Ed Rendell a hater, too?


by Ray in AK on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 06:13:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ground report from West Virginia (2.00 / 2)

I think something like RI is a probable outcome for WV, something like 58-42.  This intensity gap is interesting though.


by Bobby Obama on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 12:02:52 AM EST

Re: Ground report from West Virginia (none / 0)

Is Hillary being paid to take a dive? Like John Kerry in Ohio back in 2004? If she wants to prove to me that she will fight for my beliefs she will put in an appearance in WV.
BTW: I voted for Kerry in 2004 and Hillary in the Pa primaries. Seems like I wasted one vote hope it's not two.
by usedmeat on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 12:12:15 AM EST

Carnacki, (none / 0)

may I just say - Rose-colored glasses?


It does not take many words to tell the truth Chief Joseph - Nez Perce
by Gabriele Droz on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 12:15:00 AM EST

Re: Carnacki, (none / 0)

We all have them, wishing things to become true.


It does not take many words to tell the truth Chief Joseph - Nez Perce
by Gabriele Droz on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 12:16:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Carnacki, (none / 0)

Absolutely, who better to give us a lesson in that, eh?

;)


Hooray for John McCain!
by ragekage on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 12:25:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Carnacki, (none / 0)

Lame response.  n/t


It does not take many words to tell the truth Chief Joseph - Nez Perce
by Gabriele Droz on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 12:33:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

actually its right on the money. (none / 0)


-- be excellent to each other
by kindthoughts on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 02:18:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Gabriele Droz (none / 0)

I don't follow, my friend. Am I too rosy colored on the race issue? I admit that is possible racism is a larger factor than I see it. But southern West Virginia has elected one of the few Arab-Americans, Nick Rahall, to Congress and by large margins. Is it saying Clinton will win? I think that's a given, to be honest, unless she loses by such margins in Indiana and North Carolina that everyone else admits it's over and then West Virginia falls back to its traditional role of just rubberstamping the nominee choosen by other states - a role we're quite accustomed to. In any event, I really don't see the outcome of West Virginia as mattering one way or the other to the final outcome of the primaries. Not enough delegates or population is at stake. I'm not meaning to be argumentative - we go too far back for that - but I'm confused by your comment.


by Carnacki on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 12:33:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gabriele Droz (none / 0)

I guess we'll just have to wait and see.  But my own rose-colored glasses tell me Hillary will win by a large margin.

So there we are, being the stupid pundits we are at critical moments, sticking our necks out ahead of the guillotine.  Let's stay friends, whatever happens, even after the kill, one way or the other.

My bet is on Hilary.


It does not take many words to tell the truth Chief Joseph - Nez Perce
by Gabriele Droz on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 12:41:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gabriele Droz (2.00 / 1)

Hill in WV or as the nominee? If she walks into Denver behind in pledged delegates and walks out the  nominee how will she win the GE?


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 12:49:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Carnacki, (2.00 / 1)

This and the preceding comment is just bizarre. Carnacki is reporting observations, not making predictions. Can you point to anything that convinces you that the Clinton campaign is up and running full strength in WV? I'd be interested in seeing it if you do.


by alephnul on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 05:19:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ground report from West Virginia (2.00 / 1)

Shouldn't this be labeled a "candidate support diary?"


TexasDarlin blog
by TexasDarlin on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 12:15:00 AM EST

Re: Ground report from West Virginia (none / 0)

as much as any of Jerome's entries


by micha1976 on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 06:33:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ground report from West Virginia (none / 0)

Of course, Rockefeller trusts him to be the same bland, corporate shill that he is.


by doyenne49 on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 12:22:12 AM EST

Re: Ground report from West Virginia (none / 0)

Rockefeller's endorsement of Obama focused on his superior judgment on Iraq.

And I wonder why you think Clinton is superior to Obama when it comes to challenging corporate power. When has she done that?


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 12:38:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ground report from West Virginia (none / 0)

What the Rethugs often derisively call "HillaryCare" was a pretty good stand up moment by her back in 1992.

But I'm extremely disappointed that she was the lone Senator who chose "NOT" to vote on the 2005 Bankruptcy bill. Extremely wishy-washy of her on that travesty perpetrated by Congress on the American public.

Barack, I grant you, had the conviction to vote "Nay". More power to him.

McCain, of course, voted "Yea".

Results here:

http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/ro ll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?con gress=109&session=1&vote=00044


by RickWn on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 01:21:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ground report from West Virginia (2.00 / 1)

In my recollection, one of the problems with HillaryCare was that she tried to bend pretty far for the insurance and medical corporations, producing a horrendously complex plan that did its best to keep all of the corporate profit in place, but that it still wasn't enough for the insurance industry and the medical establishment. My memory may be wrong though.


by alephnul on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 05:22:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ground report from West Virginia (none / 0)

No too many of those working the streets of the Southeast side.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 12:50:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ground report from West Virginia (none / 0)

WV looks to be a good state for HRC. If she wins IN, WV and KY will complete a sweep of the Ohio River area.


by arkansasdemocrat on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 12:37:51 AM EST

Re: Ground report from West Virginia (none / 0)

Nobody doubts she'll win WV. IN is the question on that set, and I'm sure she'll win the Ohio River portion of IN.


by alephnul on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 05:24:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ground report from West Virginia (2.00 / 1)

Hillary will win West Virginia because of racism.  Its a scary place. When driving through WV to KY, me and my husband stopped for gas on a Friday night around 7 pm some 12  years ago.  

While getting gas, i am getting out of the car to buy some snacks and Greg says he will buy it. Later on in the car, he tells me that he was concerned for me getting out of the car and grazing  the local version of the 7-11.  You see, I am black (not light skinned "cute black")  and my husband was white, local and knew the good ole boys.

Driving on a really desolate MAJOR highway, for the next 2-3 hours, he was concerned that some boys--armed with a  consumed 12 pack of beer-- might be pissed offed at our coupling.

What blew me away was his casual explanation of what may happen  between good old boys-- and more important, upon after sharing a 12 pack of beer, act uponn it.


summer is for swimming
by susu1969 on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 01:19:13 AM EST

susu1969 (none / 0)

My experience here in WV has been quite different.  I'm in the Eastern Panhandle, but when I moved here in the mid 1980s I saw more biracial couples than in any other state I lived in. When I dated an African American woman in Ohio in the early '80s and another in Maryland in the early '90s I received much more negative reactions from others.


by Carnacki on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 02:04:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

this is where we can only hope (2.00 / 1)

John McCain puts Bobby Jindal on his ticket, like speculation says. Jindal has not said he would turn McCain down, only that he thinks McCain may not ask him. If he puts Jindal on the ticket, McCain will lose a lot of the white backlash Obama may generate in a state like West Virginia. Cynical, yes, but I wanna win.


"there is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured by what is right in America"-William Jefferson Clinton, forty-second President of the United States
by DiamondJay on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 02:23:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Carnacki (2.00 / 5)

While I'm still rooting for Hillary (and, hey, even the best pig doesn't think it a bad day if all that rooting doesn't turn up a truffle) I applaud your grass-roots, pounding pavement effort for your candidate.

Here's to a Dem in the White House come January.


by RickWn on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 01:34:16 AM EST

absolutely (2.00 / 3)

I say teh same to Hillary supporters.

I do not agree with them on a candidate but any time  they report going on at walking he streets or what not, I am ecstatic by the participation the do.


-- be excellent to each other
by kindthoughts on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 02:14:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

a must win state (2.00 / 1)

the only Dem to lose this state and still win the election was Woodrow Wilson in 1916. Every other Dem who has won the white house carried this state, tho not everyone who carried it went to the White House. The only Dems to lose the state in the 2nd half of the 20th century were Stevenson in '56, George McGovern, and Walter Mondale. There must be a good reason why Carter and Clinton both won it both times, and Dukakis even carried it.


"there is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured by what is right in America"-William Jefferson Clinton, forty-second President of the United States
by DiamondJay on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 01:38:40 AM EST

Re: a must win state (none / 0)

Correlation doesn't imply causation.


by Frood on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 02:04:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: a must win state (none / 0)

while you are right, there is nothing wrong with trying to match a winning trend. its like when people mention how not since 1960 has the winner of the White House lost Ohio. While, yea you can win it without it, its easier to win with it


"there is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured by what is right in America"-William Jefferson Clinton, forty-second President of the United States
by DiamondJay on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 02:22:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: a must win state (none / 0)

Huh?  You're missing a few guys.... Kerry lost WV, so did Gore...  


It profits a PUMA nothing to give their soul for the whole world... but for McCain? --Sir Thomas More (if he were here now)
by LordMike on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 02:46:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: a must win state (none / 0)

I said in the second half of the 20th century, Kerry and Gore were in the 21st, Gore arguably


"there is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured by what is right in America"-William Jefferson Clinton, forty-second President of the United States
by DiamondJay on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 02:58:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: a must win state (2.00 / 1)

DiamondJay -- I really appreciate your efforts to talk up our state. (I really do!) I would love for little ol' W.Va. to matter more and for us to get more attention in the general election.

For better or worse, during the time period you refer to, W.Va. has changed significantly.

For one, we've had a huge loss in population. Back in '56, Robert Byrd was running for re-election to Congress for WV-06.

Since then, we've dropped down to 3 congressional districts (losing one district in the 60s, another in the 70s and the third in the 90s). Projections are we'll probably barely hang on to 3 at next reapportionment.


by WVaBlue on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 08:16:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ground report from West Virginia (none / 0)

I'm not worried about the Clinton campaign in WV.  Right now, she's working with a tight budget and she's focusing on IN and NC right now.  
By next week, she will have half a dozen places open in WV.

Never count this woman out.  Sometimes, the most dysfunction causes the most harmony in the end.


by stefystef on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 09:08:24 AM EST

You Should Worry (2.00 / 1)

I'm new here and can't write my ground report about Indiana yet but let me tell you, she needs to get organized fast in Indiana.  We were canvassing yesterday and we met an ardent HRC supporter who said she keeps hearing about how Hillary has such a presence in Indiana but that their organization is terrible.  

I still think that Hillary has not learned from her mistakes from past primaries and it is only to her detriment.


by cranberry on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 12:06:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You Should Worry (none / 0)

Thanks for that report from IN.  I see her in IN all the time, but if they are not organizing well in IN, it means two things to me:

1.  There is still alot of infighting.
2.  The money is making it tough to get a good ground game going.

I know she really upped her game in PA even though she was rather entrenched there.  I don't think either candidate thought it would go as long as it has.  

http://www.hillaryclinton.com/hq/indiana contact

There seems to be alot of centers for Hillary in IN, so perhaps they aren't getting all the volunteers together.

I think Hillary HAS learned from the past primaries, I think some of the people in her camp have not.  

Hillary '08- 'Cause you know it's the right thing for the country"


by stefystef on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 01:27:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ground report from West Virginia (2.00 / 1)

Thanks for this Diary..I appreciate your giving both sides..

Perhaps a template for others?


"If you want to end war and stuff, you gotta sing loud"...Arlo Guthrie
by nogo war on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 09:56:01 AM EST

Re: Ground report from West Virginia (none / 0)

WV will be Clinton by 20 pts easily. People aren't going to give a crap about Jay Rockefeller just like in MA nobody gave a crap about Ted Kennedy. The rich elites of the party love Obama we get it but the real people who are struggling and who are the base of this party want Clinton


by rossinatl on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 01:31:15 PM EST

rossinetti (none / 0)

I'd hardly say that the Obama supporters in the Eastern Panhandle are anybody's definition of the rich elites.


by Carnacki on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 02:54:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ground report from West Virginia (none / 0)

he asked why Obama has done his poorest in Appalachian counties and lower income white voters that have already voted if it's not racism.

Well, speaking as someone who is from one of those counties, umm.. Obama's message is not really appealing to the voters.  We need good jobs with benefits.  Health care.  Affordable college education.  Practical stuff.  People aren't real big on change anyway.  What do you want change for?  Oh, we need to change Washington?  I've heard that crap before.

Accusing the voters of racism is a TERRIBLE plan!  But, another reason they aren't voting for him.  Turn on the TV and hear campaign surrogates and media pundits saying you're racist because you're not voting for their guy?  I'm trying and failing to see any possible way of winning the votes of stubborn Appalachians by shaming them w/allegations of racism.  


by daria g on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 02:53:45 PM EST

Re: Ground report from West Virginia (none / 0)

Obama's message resonated with the party faithful who showed up at West Virginia's county conventions. He won about 75 percent of the delegates.

It's not Obama or his campaign accusing voters of racism. He's said the opposite if you read his "bitter" comments.


by Carnacki on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 02:57:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Low income voter here - race is irrelevant (none / 0)

HEALTH CARE is relevant. Obama has half a plan, Clinton has a whole plan. It's that simple, as far as I am concerned.

Combine that with Obama wants to cut funding for NASA, Clinton wants to up funding for NASA. Clinton came out first when it comes to funding basic science.  

Both want to end the Iraq occupation, but it appears that Clinton has a better grasp of what that entails.

I'm not secure with Obama's take on SS. He has an adviser that is for privatization, a real problem in my book.

So, it's a no brainer for me. Clinton, hands down.


by splashy on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 05:12:50 PM EST


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