Clinton's gas tax folly

Hillary Clinton has joined John McCain in calling for a "gas tax holiday" this summer.  Their plans are basically to suspend the 18.4  cent per gallon tax on gasoline this summer in the hopes that it will reduce the price of gas and therefore help the average consumer.  

When I first heard McCain make this proposal I shook my head and smiled.  McCain has previously admitted that he doesn't understand economics very well and I thought his ridiculous gas tax proposal was more evidence that his self-assessment was correct.  I gleefully read article after article about how ridiculous this plan was.

Then a week or so later I learned that Hillary Clinton thinks McCain's gas tax shell game is a good idea.  I shook my head again but there was no smile on my face this time.  I couldn't believe Clinton would make the same stupid proposal that John McCain did a week earlier.  

Anyone who has taken an economics class knows that reducing the price of a commodity like gasoline will increase its demand.  From the links above:

Many economists and environmentalists also question the wisdom - and efficacy - of suspending or cutting gas taxes. They argue it simply leads to more gasoline consumption - which increases demand (and therefore prices) while exacerbating C02 emissions.

"You don't want to stimulate consumption," Lawrence Goldstein, an economist at the Energy Policy Research Foundation, told the New York Times. "The signal you want to send is the opposite one. Politicians should say that conservation is where people's mindset ought to be."

Instead of rolling back the tax, Goldstein says, the government ought to help low-income Americans pay for gasoline. That would be cheaper and benefit those who need it most.

So, both Clinton and McCain either don't understand basic economic theory or, more likely, believe the rest of us don't understand it.  Their gas tax proposals are classic cases of pandering.  They don't actually help the problem but they seem like they should.

Also, this gas tax bugaloo is nothing new.  Bob Dole rolled out a similar proposal during the 1994 congressional races.  President Clinton's press secretary's response to the Dole proposal was, "[i]n an election year, it is hard to separate speeches from serious proposals."   That statement is still true today apparently.  

(cross posted at TheForvm.org)



Display:


Agreed (2.00 / 2)

Why don't we put some money into our failed public transportation infrastructure?  And, on a personal note, why doesn't Boston's T run all night??  


by ProgressiveDL on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 09:30:02 PM EST

Re: Agreed (none / 0)

Re: The T

They are stupid heads.  I can't believe they don't run at least until 2 on the weekends.

Re: Failed infrastructure

I agree.


Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius
by Blue Neponset on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 09:34:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Agreed (none / 0)

There are so many times I had to leave parties early to catch the last T or drive in and out because of it.  Argh.  I'm still angry.  I think it's partly an inferiority complex about NYC (even though I'm not from Massachusetts originally and don't live there any more).


by ProgressiveDL on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 09:36:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Agreed (none / 0)

here in MN we put up holy hell to pass a slight gas tax increase and now people are proposing a let the federal tax go limp.  The price will come to equilibrium whether or not there is a tax.  The demand may be relatively inelastic but it isn't completely so.


Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!
by Student Guy on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 09:32:56 PM EST

We always said the demand was fairly (none / 0)

inelastic and it is built into our revenue models, however gasoline has become so expensive that the models are breaking down at the moment.

Currently, we are getting higher than average percentage based gas tax money (which goes to fund local mass transit) and much lower than expected excise taxes (flat rate per gallon) which goes almost exclusively to fund roadway rehabilitation.  It is not good seeing as my state is now number 1...in worst roads.


accepting McLettuce is like being 9 years old and forced to eat your own cooking
by Sychotic1 on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 01:14:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Agreed (2.00 / 1)

Excellent diary/points.


Serious question- Is This Snark?
by ragekage on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 09:38:27 PM EST

Re: Clinton's gas tax folly (none / 0)

Fed tax is only 18.4 cents a gallon. Ahem 18.4 Cents a gallon. (ya think any jobs benefit from this?)

As for States?
Sort it out for yourselves

http://commonsensejunction.com/notes/gas -tax-rate.html


"If you want to end war and stuff, you gotta sing loud"...Arlo Guthrie
by nogo war on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 09:44:02 PM EST

That money funds a ton of jobs (none / 0)

That is what the FHWA hands out to the states in order to build and maintain infrastructure.  The feds funds many projects on an 88.53 percent federal to 11.47 state match.  Most of your major maintenace (rehabilitation) and improvements are funded from these federal monies.  With housing starts all but non-existent, road projects are the bread and butter of many contractors and their employees.  Every project we can put out to bid is a boon to the economy.


accepting McLettuce is like being 9 years old and forced to eat your own cooking
by Sychotic1 on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 01:17:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's gas tax folly (2.00 / 1)

This blogger seems to have hit the nail on the head with what Hill is attempting with this gax tax suspension idea.  Say what you will about her, but she sure knows what to do with a popular, but unreasonable, political position with which she does not agree and use it to her advantage anyway.

http://matthewyglesias.theatlantic.com/a rchives/2008/04/credit_where_due_3.php#c omments

"Speaking on CNN Monday night, New York's Sen. Clinton outlined a series of steps to address gas prices, including the release of oil from the country's strategic reserves. She said she would 'also consider a gas-tax holiday, if we could make up the lost revenues from the Highway Trust Fund,' which the federal gas tax supports. She didn't specify how those lost revenues would be recovered."

"In other words, Clinton doesn't agree with McCain's idea. She'll do it only 'if we could make up the lost revenues from the Highway Trust Fund.' But we can't make up the lost revenues from the Highway Trust Fund, so she won't do it. And that's the right answer, but she's successfully confused most of the audience into thinking she does favor the holiday."


by Blazers Edge on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 09:47:49 PM EST

Re: Clinton's gas tax folly (2.00 / 1)

I apologize to linking a weird site...but they do have the numbers.(Can I get an amen for shutting down the sleazy pay-day loan places like the one advertising at this place?)


"If you want to end war and stuff, you gotta sing loud"...Arlo Guthrie
by nogo war on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 09:48:10 PM EST

No one should be surprised (none / 0)

When I saw that, I was shocked. It's about as deceptive and intellectually dishonest an ad as can be developed. And what makes it even worse is that she does it at a time when many less fortunate Americans are really struggling to pay for increasing energy costs.

She's going to pay for the freeze in the gas tax by TAKING AWAY EXCESSIVE PROFITS??? Every politician over the last 30 years has said they're going to investigate oil price fixing etc, and I would be willing to bet nothing has ever come from it. Also, I'd love to know how you're going to tax windfall profits. She knows she can't do it, but says it anyways.

She will say ANYTHING if she thinks it will get her a few extra votes. The truth be damned.


by highgrade on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 09:54:29 PM EST

Re: Clinton's gas tax folly (none / 0)

I actually don't think you'll see consumption rise a whole lot if a tank of gas costs $2 or $3 less. And that's all we're talking about. Sure cheaper is cheaper and every dollar matters but it won't have a huge impact. When I bought my current vehicle I could fill it for about $25. It's now $60. Color me unimpressed with a discount of a couple bucks. The problem is what do you do about the loss of revenue to the system that funds road projects. As recent examples show this country needs to spend more money, not less, on it's infrastructure.


Proudly joining the legions of people and states that don't matter on May 20th.
by Obama Independent on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 10:05:50 PM EST

Re: Clinton's gas tax folly (none / 0)


Look, the dirty little secret is that oil traders know that speculation (commodities speculators) and the weakness of the US dollar accounts for at least 25% in the run up of oil.  That means without this short term speculation, oil should be around $85/barrel.  

My point is that everyone knows gas prices are wreaking havoc on middle America, so Hillary's position on removing the tax over the summer is not only politically beneficial but also, since it's TEMPORARY, doesn't reward the additional consumption of foreign oil for the long term, which nobody wants.

That said with the Federal reserve on the cusp of changing their fedrate loosening bias at the next meeting, oil should stabilize and if Nigeria/Iran don't cause trouble this summer oil, should likely come down after her tax hiatus.  So consumers will reward her politically with no impact from rewarding bad gas usage behavior.  And she could easily write off the loss of infrastructure revenue, just offset against cancellation of another "bridge to nowhere".


If you had everything, where would you put it?
by wasanyonehurt on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 10:20:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's gas tax folly (2.00 / 2)

The wholesale price of gas will not decrease as a result of the "gas tax holiday."  

The increased demand that results from the holiday will increase the wholesale price.

The supply will be the same regardless of the amount of the tax.  

The gas tax holiday is a useless gesture.  It won't reduce the price of gas. It will reduce the $$ in the Highway fund and probably the deficit.  


Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius
by Blue Neponset on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 10:27:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's gas tax folly (none / 0)

An oil trader on any given day, hour or minute does not know what the wholesale market price of oil will be.

And you do?

How do you know demand will increase, much less supply will remain the same (are you OPEC)? Unseasonable warm temperatures in late fall early winter of 2007, gas prices dropped 25cents while demand did NOT increase - how do you explain that and the multitude of other examples of price/demand fluctuations.

Gas prices are at historic highs = a gas tax hiatus will not spur demand because gas will STILL be at historic highs with the hiatus.

You should take some of that confidence and try trading you could make a bundle if you're right. But you're not.


If you had everything, where would you put it?
by wasanyonehurt on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 10:40:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's gas tax folly (2.00 / 1)

An oil trader on any given day, hour or minute does not know what the wholesale market price of oil will be.

And you do?

I know that a retail tax on a product won't change the wholesale price of that product.  

How do you know demand will increase, much less supply will remain the same (are you OPEC)?

It is basic economics.  

Don't take my word for it.  LINK

Let's start with the fact that refineries are essentially operating at capacity. In summer, when travel is at its peak, this is especially true. This translates to a completely inelastic supply curve. What does economics 101 teach us about taxes and completely inelastic supply curves? It teaches us that there will be virtually NO price effect at the pump. You will just be transferring the tax revenues to the oil companies. So the claim that this would stem the public's pain is absurd.


Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius
by Blue Neponset on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 10:50:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's gas tax folly (none / 0)

You link to an Economics blog? Academics teach. (No offense to you academics out there)

Supply/demand model is outrageously simplistic typical of basic econ 101 as the link suggests.  He should have taught at least econ 303 and included US$ exchange rate, Saudi Production rates, Nigeria/Iran macro turmoil or lack thereof, Oil's demand effects at 3 standard deviations to historical norms.  These are things that control the crude markets, not basic simplistic models.


If you had everything, where would you put it?
by wasanyonehurt on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 11:13:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's gas tax folly (none / 0)

Sorry I like to someone who knows what he is talking about.  This is a fundamentally simple issue.  Despite all your "examples"  the supply of gasoline is relatively inelastic in the short term.  As the link suggests this has a lot to do with refinery capacity and little to do with Nigeria & Iran.  


Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius
by Blue Neponset on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 09:13:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's gas tax folly (none / 0)

An oil trader on any given day, hour or minute does not know what the wholesale market price of oil will be.

And you do?

I know that a retail tax on a product won't change the wholesale price of that product.  

How do you know demand will increase, much less supply will remain the same (are you OPEC)?

It is basic economics.  

Don't take my word for it.  LINK

Let's start with the fact that refineries are essentially operating at capacity. In summer, when travel is at its peak, this is especially true. This translates to a completely inelastic supply curve. What does economics 101 teach us about taxes and completely inelastic supply curves? It teaches us that there will be virtually NO price effect at the pump. You will just be transferring the tax revenues to the oil companies. So the claim that this would stem the public's pain is absurd.


Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius
by Blue Neponset on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 10:49:33 PM EST

Re: Clinton's gas tax folly (none / 0)

Gas tax holiday?

How about NOT invading Iraq and not drumming up a war against Iran?  Wonder how much of the risk that would take out of gas prices...


No way. No how. No McCain.
by freedom78 on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 12:12:57 AM EST

The folly of this diary (2.00 / 1)

First, I was wondering if the diarist, in his economic wisdom, was familiar with the concept of price elasticity in demand?

Gasoline is actually the textbook example of inelastic demand.  So I believe if you were as familiar with economics as you pretend to be, you would have known this.  And then you could have perhaps avoided the unpleasant taste of that foot in your mouth.

In terms of how much stimulus effect it would have, I'm not exactly sure.  It seems to me that if you assume most folks using 10+ gallons a week, you are basically looking at a stimulus effect greater than the rebate checks most of us will be getting.  So this is just a different way of packaging it.

Now, if you had read the second of the links you provided, you would see that the main criticism of McCain's plan wasn't that it would not have a stimulus effect, it was how it would be paid for:

But McCain's proposal could cost the government some $9 billion dollars - and more than 300,000 jobs.

The tax supports the federal Highway Trust Fund, which finances road projects nationwide and is already facing a $3.4 billion shortfall, the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials says. The American Society of Civil Engineers says every dollar invested in highway infrastructure generates $5.40 in economic benefits through reduced delays, improved safety and lower vehicle operating costs. And the federal transportation department says every $1 billion in highway spending creates 34,779 jobs.

A McCain spokesman told MSNBC the senator favors transferring money from the general fund to make up for the lost gas tax revenue. That, of course, would add to the deficit.

So it was at the expense of the Highway Trust Fund, or put on the credit card.

Therefore, it is intellectually dishonest for you to call this "Clinton's" plan, since her plan operates under a complete different premise - windfall profits tax on Big Oil.  That was what she said she would use to pay for the tax holiday, with the substantial balance added to the Highway Trust Fund.  So her plan is the exactly opposite in fact.

Simply for the sake of some journalistic integrity I would advise you to change your title.


by bobbank on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 12:58:37 AM EST

Mr. One Note (none / 0)

If you want me to respond to your comments then you can stop calling me dishonest.  I believe everything I wrote in this diary.  If you want to challenge my conclusions then please do.  If you want to call me dishonest then please spare me your opinion.  


Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius
by Blue Neponset on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 09:09:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The diary is a sham (none / 0)

I'm sorry if that offends you.  But it is true.

You support your attack with sources that criticize McCain's plan, but you title your diary Hillary's folly.  That is intellectually dishonest, as I said.

You overlook the fact that the main criticism of McCain's plan is that it isn't properly funded, which is something that Hillary addressed very plainly and clearly at the debate, in her speeches and in her papers.  So, either you didn't know that (in which case you were uninformed and have an obligation to update your diary) or you are being dishonest again.

But what really rubbed me the wrong way about your diary is that you try to come off knowing a thing or two about economics.  But, as someone who does, I have to tell you that seeing you totally unaware of elasticity in demand really undermines any credibility in this diary.

Maybe I should conclude by explaining it to you.  I commute to work each day.  If gas prices drop by 18 cents, I don't suddenly start taking a longer route.  Very few people planning to drive someplace check the price of gas, see if it is up or down by a few cents, and then alter their plans based on that data.  So, in economic terms, this is called price elasticity of demand.  As I said, gas is actually a textbook example of it - it requires huge shifts in price before demand is changed in any appreciable way.


by bobbank on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 12:25:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The diary is a sham (none / 0)

The main criticism of McCain's plan is the same criticism of Clinton's plan.  It won't reduce prices.  I never mentioned the Highway Fund in my diary.  

Regarding the elasticity of demand:

LINK

U.S. drivers are doing something they haven't done for nearly two decades: consuming less gasoline.

Gas consumption so far this year is down about 0.2 percent compared with last year, according to the Energy Information Administration. The federal agency is predicting that gasoline demand will be down 0.4 percent this summer and 0.3 percent for the year.

That may not sound like much, but it would be the first time since 1991 that there's been a decline in annual gasoline consumption. And it would be only the eighth year since 1951 in which demand for gasoline has declined.

It seems I am not the only one who disagrees with you about the demand elasticity of gasoline.


Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius
by Blue Neponset on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 12:49:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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