8 More States...Still a Tie

It's kind of funny, if you've been paying attention...

Before Super Tuesday (Feb. 5th), people said Hillary had to win California plus a couple of states in the Northeast besides New York.
She did.  

Before March 4th, people said Hillary had to win Texas and Ohio.
She did (yes she won Texas, by more than 100,000 votes).

Then, people said she had to win Pennsylvania.
She did.

And now, people, especially Obama people desperate for Hillary's demise, are frantically shouting from the rooftops that Clinton must win Indiana, North Carolina, or both.

But  that is false.  Where does it say in the RULES that Hillary Clinton must win Indiana or North Carolina?  Fact is, Clinton or Obama could...win or lose...either or both...state, and still win the nomination.

Now I am an optimistic Hillary supporter, and I believe she has an excellent chance of carrying Indiana, despite Obama's plans to ramp up negative attacks against her, such as this fallacious mailer, and outspend her again by at least double.  But Indiana is a neighboring state to Obama's home of Illinois, and that may tip a slight win his way.  North Carolina is more challenging for Sen. Clinton because the race-baiting underway by surrogates such as Rep. James Clyburn, who ridiculously insists he's still neutral, will likely drive Obama to victory there. (Isn't Clyburn's recent interview remarkably similar to one he gave right before the South Carolina primary?)

Everyone should pause for a moment and evaluate the situation realistically.  Remember, neither Clinton nor Obama will have enough pledged delegates on June 4th, following the last primary, to secure the nomination.  Either one of them will need a sufficient number of votes from the super delegates to reach the magic number.  Yes, the super delegates....those Democratic leaders charged with ensuring that the Party nominate the strongest General Election candidate.

Currently the super delegates reflect the will of the people, in that their preferences are fairly evenly divided. (C259 to O236, according to the The Associated Press.)

And even Howard Dean, Chairman of the Democratic National Committee, has finally acknowledged that super delegates will not be bound by the results of the primaries.  Per the Financial Times:

The Democratic party's "superdelegates" have every right to...choose the candidate they believe would be best equipped to defeat John McCain in a general election, according to Dean.

He said there was nothing in the DNC's rules that would prevent the party's unelected superdelegates, who make up about a fifth of the overall delegate tally and who will ultimately pick the winner, from "doing what they want".

"If it's very very close, they [the superdelegates] will do what they want anyway," said Mr Dean.

Yes, folks, this race is still a tie, especially if Florida and Michigan are acknowledged at all...Side note:  Hillary supported re-votes in those states; Obama just keeps running away from them as if over 2 million Democrats don't count!

Now, anyone paying attention knows this race is extremely close but desperate people work very hard to spin a narrative that some state or another is a "must win" for Clinton.  Never mind that Obama lost California, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Texas, Ohio, Florida, New York, and Pennsylvania. (Correct me if I'm wrong but I'm pretty sure that a primary candidate has never in history lost all those major states and won the presidency).

So let's not forget the 8 states that still need to vote (plus Guam).

Here is the calendar for the rest of the primaries:

May 4: Guam -- 4 pledged delegates (PDs)
May 6: North Carolina -- 115 PDs
May 6: Indiana -- 72 PDs
May 13: West Virginia -- 28 PDs
May 20:  Kentucky -- 51 PDs
May 20:  Oregon -- 52 PDs
June 1:  Puerto Rico -- 55 PDs
June 3: Montana -- 16 PDs
June 3: South Dakota -- 15 PDs

Total Pledged Delegates remaining = 408

Number of people remaining who will likely vote = 5 million, according to CNN estimates.

Five million people still plan to vote!  In fact, new voters are registering in upcoming primary states in record numbers because they want their voices to be heard.

So spin, spin, spin all you like, but there will be 9 more primaries in which 408 more pledged delegates are contested, and neither candidate must win any of the remaining races to win the Democratic nomination.  By all accounts, there will still be a virtual tie when all the voting has finally concluded.

Then, it will be in the hands of the super delegates.  And, as Howard Dean said about their decision:

"I think the race is going to come down to the perception in the last six or eight races of who the best opponent for McCain will be."

Who the best opponent for McCain will be...

Cross posted at texasdarlin.wordpress.com



Display:


Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 12)

On a related note, why is Obama afraid to debate Clinton?

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2008/04/26 obama-no-debates-before-may-6?mod=WSJB log


TexasDarlin blog
by TexasDarlin on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:33:09 PM EST

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (none / 0)

Well, Tex, why not ante up yourself?

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/4/26/1619 3/6766


Hooray for John McCain!
by ragekage on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:36:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 4)

what do you want her to pay for, rage?  Hillary offered to pay for revotes in Florida and Michigan, she put out the cash, now you want money from TD?  The truth, however hard to bear, is that both of them need supers and both will have to make a case that they're both more prepared, support our Democratic values the most, and can win against McCain. Barack is starting to tank, he's even losing some who voted for him in earlier primaries. i think his position on SS and capital gains lost him those pugs and indies who had had a hard time deciding between him and McCain first time round.  He could pull it off, even after his humiliating defeat in PA, if he could muster up a good debate performance, but seems he's scared, is afraid he'll have to debate her in the kitchen?  

How ya' doing, rage?  Keeping to the issues are you?  


by anna shane on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:44:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (none / 0)

I have no idea what you are talking about. Tex is one of the most eloquent and well-spoken Clinton supporters. If we had a debate between Clinton and Obama supporters, who better than her to represent the Clinton side? Pay? I don't know where you're going with the rest of your post, there


Hooray for John McCain!
by ragekage on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:58:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 3)

how like his candidate he is.


by campskunk on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 07:12:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 1)

And you to yours, sir! :)


Hooray for John McCain!
by ragekage on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 07:17:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 11)

Hillary is more articulate, more informed on the issues, and will continue to clean his clock like she's done every time. That's why.


I'm United Methodist. I already have a Messiah.
by KnowVox on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:36:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 3)

well, that's the REAL reason. i think we'll get more of the decorative ones from obama supporters in this diary. the dog ate his teleprompter, stuff like that.


by campskunk on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 07:13:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

and a miscalculation (2.00 / 2)

under Obama's "math", he was never supposed to be here, so no need really to prepare to debate on issues.  This was a strategic miscalculation by his campaign and he should have immediately shifted after Ohio and Texas.  But he underestimates her.

Instead of issues, he could rely on carefully timed negative or deceptive advertising, remarks of surrogates (which he could later "disagree" with), to demonize HRC. So now that he has turned himself into the "anti-HRC", he has nothing else to say, except "I'm better than Hillary".  Now when he's asked to spell out why he is better, he gets angry and is "offended".  Not a pretty sight.

This miscalculation leads him to be woefully unprepared to debate Clinton.  If he believes his own stuff, he will just say "I'm winning, I don't need to debate her", and make this a personality thing.  If he understands that he's got to make his own case now, he will step up to the plate and show us how hard he will fight for his own nomination--not by bashing HRC--but by showing Americans why he is the one who will fight us.


by 4justice on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 12:22:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Obviously, you have never looked... (none / 0)

... at Obama's math.

Truth be told, he's pretty much right where he expected to be back in February.  

He's done a little better in some states, and not as well in others, but overall, he's right on his projected track for the nomination.


Ignorance is weakness. Get strong.
by tbetz on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 12:37:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 1)

The PA debate was the first one of the one on one debates that she iddn't get destroyed in and now all of the sudden she's awesome? Its a bit laughable.


by Socraticsilence on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 11:04:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 1)

Check the scoreboard. She "cleaned his clock" all the way to second place.

This whole diary ignores the reality of the situation, which is this: HRC has to win NC in the same way that everyone said Obama HAD to win Penn to prove his electability or whatever. The same way he HAS to win Indiana, or Kentucky, or whatever the goalpost du jour is.

The simple fact is this, and you can't get away from it not matter the mental gymnastics some people try to pull: Obama wasn't supposed to win this thing. He came from nowhere to compete with and outraise not only the Dem frontrunner, but the entire Dem machine she and her husband had built over the last 16 years. That's why he's the nominee, short of a misplaced lightning strike or something to that effect. The better we deal with it now, the better our chance to beat McCain.

Oh, and there is no metric under which this is a tie. Just so y'all know. Obama has more delegates, the popular vote, and more states won. That ain't a tie.


by jbill on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 08:43:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

What you say is true. But... (none / 0)

It doesn't matter.
Nothing matters to these people.
Sure, he's been winning, but not the right way: He didn't win the "big" states, the states a Democrat "has to win" in November. He lost California and New York and Pennsylvania and New Jersey in the primaries, so he's necessarily going to lose them in the fall.
He won states with "too many" black people: S.C., Miss., La., Ga., Ala., and Va., so we can't really count those.
He won "bad" states (I paraphrase here by calling them "bad"), states like Oregon and Washington and Vermont and Maryland with lots of people who went to college and graduate school, who drive volvos and drink white wine and know what manchego and arugala are. These states reflect badly on him, since college graduates and manchego eaters are snobbish assholes who don't know how to bowl and thus aren't "real Americans".
But do you know what? I don't think I'm any worse than most Americans for all that? Sure, I had a different upbringing form most Americans: lots of books growing up, a father on the faculty of a college with a lot of caché, a good schooling at college and then again at graduate school; sure I had a lot of advantages that many people don't; sure, I know how to put the accent on "caché"; sure, I like good cheese. But I'm just as much an American as the people Clinton's supporters imply are somehow the "real" Americans: people who are lower class or who bowl a lot or watch nascar or drink what I think of as shitty beer a lot.
I'm not some effete snob because of that; I'mjust different.
And, do you know what? Hillary Clinton is hardly jus' plain folks. I mean, she went to Wellesley. How many typical Americans went there? It's hardly some small junior college in some little town most of us have never heard of. I don't think she majored in welding there, or at Yale Law School. That's no knock against her; it's just to point out that when she tries to make us think she's just an everyday working woman, struggling to pay the bills, it a load of bullshit.
Obama's less of what most Americans would think of as "elitist" than she is. Yet he's seen as the phony around here, and she's the woman of the people. But Obama actually worked as a community organizer. Clinton has been a corporate lawyer and sat for a while on the board of union-busting walmart (I refuse to capitalize the name), which treats its workers like slaves.
Now maybe she was on the board so she could try to make it a better company to it's workers and the towns it takes over and drives every competing business out of. But even so, she has no call to claim she's worked harder, down in the trenches, getting her fingers dirty, than Obama has.
And yet, here, I'm an elitist; you are most likely an elitist; Obama's an elitist.
Hillary Clinton is just an everyday kind of working woman.
You and I can say this until we drop, but most here will never hear or care.
ооо
by Mumphrey on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 02:48:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Ha! I'm a goober! (none / 0)

I wrote "caché"when I should have written "cachet".
But then, since I caught my mistake, I guess that proves I'm an elitist anyway...
ооо
by Mumphrey on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 02:51:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 1)

Fantastic Diary! Everything logical, true and what they won't hear.


by rrs11215 on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 10:48:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (none / 0)

Wait is this snark?  You don't actually call that logic, right?


by The Distillery on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 01:12:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Let it go. She is going to lose reguardless. (2.00 / 2)

Let's not screw up our chances of winning in November by playing childish political games.  Wake up.


by dystopianfuturetoday on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 04:26:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

TexasDarlin, you are hilarious (none / 0)

This line is classic: "Where does it say in the RULES that Hillary Clinton must win Indiana or North Carolina?"

I love that you start this argument by mentioning "the rules."

By "the RULES," Hillary lost Texas.
By "the RULES," Michigan does not count.
By "the RULES," Florida does not count.
By "the RULES," Obama has been ahead in this race since February.
By "the RULES," Hillary is in debt.
By "the RULES," Obama will win the nomination.

And nowhere in "the RULES" does it say that Obama must debate Clinton 22 times.

Not that this comment matters. You will go on writing your ridiculous posts. I suspect you'll keep writing them even after Obama is nominated. Perhaps you will continue these rants into his presidency.


by not Brit on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 09:29:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: TexasDarlin, you are hilarious (none / 0)

Are those really the rules you want to believe in?  Where 100,000 vote losses are spun into victories (Texas) and where 2 of the most important states in the union are disenfranchised?


by mikes101 on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 12:42:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 9)

As Krugman aptly stated, Obama's "Yes we can" has been transformed into "No she can't."


I'm United Methodist. I already have a Messiah.
by KnowVox on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:35:44 PM EST

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 1)

Well, KnowVox, I think it's less can't than won't. But I guess we'll just have to see. At least, sir, I'm more than willing to support her if she does win, my views of her behavior/demeanor nonetheless.

As an aside, I'm a United Methodist, too, and I think your sig line is offensive to Methodists and Obama supporters. I don't imagine you really care, but I wanted you to know. Besides, if you feel that strongly, I could quote some scripture that would belie your attitude.


Hooray for John McCain!
by ragekage on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:39:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 4)

It's not yes we can but no he won't?  Catchy. but he still looks like a coward to the regular joe who thinks if you can't talk to a girl you must be some kind of wuss?  


by anna shane on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:48:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 2)

but he still looks like a coward to the regular joe who thinks if you can't talk to a girl you must be some kind of wuss?

It's statements like this that make claims of misogyny really hard to stomach.  

And can we steer away from painting our leading dems as wimps please?  That's a republican (and MSM) talking point.  There are plenty of valid political and tactical reasons why a frontrunner won't debate and it has nothing to do with cowardice.



Lost rate and rec for issuing a '1' to a trollish comment. The troll, not so much.

by map on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 07:07:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 3)

It has everything to do with cowardice.


I'm United Methodist. I already have a Messiah.
by KnowVox on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 07:15:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 1)

Of course. After 21 debates he's a coward for saying enough's enough.


by Mystylplx on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 10:36:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 3)

that's a great argument! just because he ACTS like a coward doesn't mean he really IS one! i'm sure the average joe will see the truth in that argument.


by campskunk on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 07:16:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 3)

That wasn't my argument.

Are there any valid reasons for a frontrunner to decline a debate other than cowardice?



Lost rate and rec for issuing a '1' to a trollish comment. The troll, not so much.

by map on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 07:55:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 3)

actually no. it's publicity and if you're great at debating you just solidify support. But if you have something to hide, if you think you might lose, then there is a reason to decline.  Of course if you're way way ahead and your opponent is an unknown, then maybe you can decline cause you don't want your opponent to get known, but that doesn't apply here, both are well known. Plus since they each need supers he'd have a reason to debate, to show what he has for McCain to the supers. Sorry to tell you that if he won't debate her most everyone will attribute it to his lack of knowledge and his fear that this will come out and she'll look even better compared with him.  Oh, well?  


by anna shane on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 08:27:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 2)

No doubt she's a better debater than he is, although he has improved a great deal over the course of this campaign and he will mop the floor with McCain.  That said, if he considers the race over (assuming he wins IN and NC) then he has no reason to accept a debate; it has no advantage at all for him.



Lost rate and rec for issuing a '1' to a trollish comment. The troll, not so much.

by map on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 08:53:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 3)

Forget about whether or not it benefits him, it doesn't have any advantage for ANY of us.


by RussTC3 on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 08:57:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 1)

Pretty funny considering her reputation for avoiding debates in NY.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 12:02:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 2)

Huh, when do you think Hillqary became courageous, I mean she was an abject coward in 2006 when she wouldn't even debate her primary opponent once, and contiunely ducked her genral opponent as well, so I gotta ask when do you think she found some heart?


by Socraticsilence on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 11:09:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 2)

Who's this Joe that has pretentions of averageness, and why does he need you to speak on his behalf?


by Aris Katsaris on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 09:04:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I Think (2.00 / 0)

that both our candidates have demonstrated tremendous courage--in no small part because of the paths they're trailblazing as the first woman and the first African American to be seriously in the running for a major party presidential nomination.  We all know the kind of irrational hatred Hillary has had to contend with ever since she pointed out that she doesn't stay at home and bake cookies.  As for Obama, folks at his rallies commonly report about how many Secret Service agents are on hand to protect him.  There are a lot of kooks out there drinking something nasty and talking about what they'd do if she or he becomes President.


by deminva on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 11:36:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 1)

Wow, is that sexist shit to see coming from a Clinton supporter. Do you think it is any better because you shove your sexist shit into the nouth of an "ordinary joe?"


by alephnul on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 07:34:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (none / 0)

So it's alright to be sexist one way, but not another? I get it hypocrites.


by zep93 on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 10:11:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 6)

Not trying to pile on here, but..

The Obama campaign did risk their brand in PA.  The script that every superdelegate reads when they endorse Obama is that their reason for believing he is most qualified to be President is something like: "Hillary is too negative."

This has become a core underpinning for them.

Obama supporters here on MyDD are too committed at this point to care how negative he goes.  Some may even cheer him on.

But his initial appeal to many folks who don't follow this closely is the notion that he is not just another politician (or, as Oprah put it, he is THE ONE - lines like this are what inspire the sig that offends you).  As I see it that entire imagery has been trashed, almost entirely by Barack and his campaign, at this point.

So, if I were his adviser, I would tell him that he had better find his old material, because the new attitude of "no she won't", the personal attacks, and constant harping on "Washington" without actually talking about the "issues" that are supposedly so important - this combination is not going to work for him.

If his campaign drinks too much of their own Koolaid, and starts believing their victory is inevitable, I guarantee they will lose.  If he can find is former self, figure out what he did with all that hope, and start preeching it again, he can retain his status as frontrunner.


by bobbank on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:53:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 5)

Very well said.


I'm United Methodist. I already have a Messiah.
by KnowVox on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:58:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 2)

I agree in part, but after month after month of some of the nastiest attack politics ever seen in a primary I can't say I completely blame him for wanting to hit back just a little.

But it's a bigger mistake than you make it out to be. Deep in people hindbrains all they see is a black man attacking a white woman. This is why Hillary gets away with so much more nastiness while he gets criticized for much milder comebacks. It aint fair, but that's the way it is.

She drags out pictures of him in a Turbin, raids his gradeschool essays, and generally has been working overtime to paint him as an elitist black militant. He points out she takes money from lobbyists and makes a couple jokes about her Tuzla comment, but because he's a black man and she's a white woman there will be those who think he's the main aggressor. What it boils down to is she's, in many peoples deep-down hindbrains, allowed to hit him but he's not allowed to hit her back.


by Mystylplx on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 10:44:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 2)

Hang on a moment.

When Hillary won Ohio, one of the arguments was that he hadn't been vetted, with the implication that he had never taken, or thrown, a punch.

Now, the argument is that he has made throwing punches a part of his core argument.  

These same voices will then argue that Obama is too green and wimpy to survive a General Election onslaught.  There is no intellectual consistency here.  I would think you would have to at least give BO points on this.  He was able to go negative on Hilary, then have the exit polls overwhelmingly say that she is too negative. He learned from his "your likeable enough, Hilary." quote.

Finally, it hasn't been a tie since Wisconsin.  Really.  Texas was a primary win, but a delegate loss.  Ohio was a 9 delegate win.  PA was also a 9 delegate win.  Two huge, budget breaking victories that gained nothing.  Pyrrhic.


by profbarr on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 10:53:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama's motto (2.00 / 5)

Argue with Krugman; he coined the phrase.

And spare me your feigned religious outrage.


I'm United Methodist. I already have a Messiah.
by KnowVox on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:54:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's motto (2.00 / 2)

Gee, thanks for demeaning my religious beliefs with that "feigned" claim.


Hooray for John McCain!
by ragekage on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:59:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's motto (2.00 / 3)

Your outrage is feigned, not your religion.


I'm United Methodist. I already have a Messiah.
by KnowVox on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 07:16:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's motto (2.00 / 1)

No, My outrage is very real, though, it's less outrage than more annoyance or irritation or offense at a, insinuating Obama supporters treat him like he's Jesus Christ (which is interesting, since I've got more than one bone to pick with scripture and Jesus), and b, that you'd drag our denomination into this primary battle.


Hooray for John McCain!
by ragekage on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 07:20:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's motto (2.00 / 2)

If my tag is so annoying/irritating/offensive, don't read it.


I'm United Methodist. I already have a Messiah.
by KnowVox on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 08:26:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's motto (1.00 / 1)

Ah, so you admit you worship Obama?


by K1966 on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 08:37:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's motto (2.00 / 1)

You know, if you look around, I'm sure you can find some really offensive motto's for both Clinton and Obama that someone has made up. If either of us starts repeating them, it is on us to own what we are doing. Saying, "Oh, someone else made up my vapid, rancid slogan," is no defense whatsoever.


by alephnul on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 07:37:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Umm . . . (2.00 / 2)

Are you saying that the AA voter is driven to vote for Obama by race-baiting?

Give them a little bit of credit.

I don't think that 60 year old White Women would want you to characterize their support . . . and neither would the AA community.


NO 100 year WAR, NO McConnell run Senate, & NO GOP-led Supreme Court!!!
by Veteran75 on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:35:59 PM EST

Re: Umm . . . (2.00 / 3)

in spite of race bating, no one had to call anyone a racist. On the issues most poorer Americans, all races, would be for her, but he's a favorite son, and it's great to have an African American in the race, and he'd of received those votes without having to play victim.  In the end playing victim makes him look wussy.  There are victims, real ones, but he hasn't had that experience.  


by anna shane on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:50:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Umm . . . (2.00 / 1)

in spite of gender bating, no one had to call anyone a sexist. On the issues most poorer Americans, all genders, would be for him, but she's a favorite daughter, and it's great to have a woman in the race, and she'd of received those votes without having to play victim.  In the end playing victim makes her look wussy.  There are victims, real ones, but she hasn't had that experience.  


"This election is not about ideology, it's about competence." -Michael Dukakis
by MBNYC on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 07:04:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Umm . . . (2.00 / 1)

excuse me, has someone called Obama a sexist? I know some of his supporters engage in sexist rhetoric, but I assume you all have mothers and don't hate women, you just don't understand.  So, what's your point? You think Donna calling Bill Clinton a racist and many blogging about the so-called racism of the Clintons has some parallel?  I haven't seen anyone call Obama a sexist, or anyone in his campaign a sexist.  Does that make you think?  (just hoping, youse guies don't have a lock on hope you know)  


by anna shane on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 08:33:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Umm . . . (none / 0)

Is this the same way that on the issues anyone who cares in the least about Iraq could never vote for a person either too stupid or too lazy to read the NIE?


by Socraticsilence on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 11:17:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Umm . . . (none / 0)

again with the sexist language (wussy).

Interesting...


by alephnul on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 07:38:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 3)

the said if she didn't win new hampshire, it was over. she won newhampshire. they said if she didn't win texas AND ohio, it was over . she won them both, they said if she didn't win pennsylvania, she was out of the race. she won it by ten points.

every time they raise the bar, she gets the job done. that's why this time they're nailing it to the ceiling.


by campskunk on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:38:14 PM EST

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (none / 0)

Who, the media? Who really thinks the media is in this for anyone but themselves?


Hooray for John McCain!
by ragekage on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:39:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 3)

Obama seems to have thought so, never thought it would turn on him too, only she had all those negatives. But tides do turn, after all. He'd put it to rest if he could credibly acquit himself in a debate with no moderators and no time limits.  Or couldn't he?  you tell me, could he clean her clock?  


by anna shane on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:53:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

No way. (2.00 / 2)

Remember this video? LOL

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PprggI6Cf yI


I'm United Methodist. I already have a Messiah.
by KnowVox on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 07:04:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 1)

Well then he could blame her for not asking him quality questions.  He always blames someone, but not himself who when you come down to it, wasn't ready with the answers he needed in the last debate.  Not ready.  How many other things is he not ready for, even though he knows they are bound to come up? Maybe some foriegn policy crises, or crises right here in our own land.  It's scary.  There is no track record of his readiness.


by Scotch on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 08:09:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Correction (2.00 / 2)

Again, he won the state of Texas.  She won the Texas primary.


by ProgressiveDL on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 07:26:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 1)

Actually, if you keep barely meeting criteria to keep going, then you keep going, but there keep being newer criteria to meet to keep going. Clinton keeps not doing badly enough to be clearly, absolutely out of the race, but she keeps doing badly enough that if she does badly in the next round then she is clearly absolutely out of the race.

There aren't criteria that Obama needs to meet each time for him to stay in the race, because he could blow any individual primary incredibly badly, and still be in a solid position to turn things around and maintain his lead. He would have needed to lose PA by something around 100% to have lost his lead in delegates.

There are also criteria that Clinton would have been having to meet to actually have a good chance of winning, but she keeps missing those by so wide a margin no one talks about them much. Clinton needed a 30 point margin in PA to have a serious chance of winning the pledged delegate count, probably more given that she was never likely to be able to win by 30 points in NC or OR or Montana (isn't it sad I don't know Montana's 2 letter code?).

At this point, she needs to average better than 40 point margins in the remaining races to pull a lead in pledged delegates (less if we argue that MI and FL will be counted as half, but she still needs to have large wins on average in the remaining states in order to pull ahead in pledged delegates). If she isn't going to do that, then she needs to start taking 80% of the remaining SDs, or pulling Obama's SDs to neutral or to her camp.

At the moment, she isn't doing any of those things, and doesn't show any sign of doing any of those things. While she hasn't done so badly that it becomes absolutely impossible to come up with some miracle by which she gets the nomination, she keeps doing badly enough that the miracles become harder and harder to imagine, and less and less likely to happen.

I'm really not an Obamabot. I'll vote for either of them in the GE, and I'll vote for either of them here in OR in a month, given how little it matters at this point, but I like wandering around being the cold light of dawn.


by alephnul on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 07:51:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 3)

One interesting side-note - I found it curious that Barack would call Indiana a tie-breaker.  He had better be extremely confident he will win there, or those words are going to come back to haunt him, badly.

It also shows the way in which Clinton has subtly gained control over the narrative.  For Barack to see Indiana as a tie-breaker, even just rhetorically, is a huge deviation from his campaign's official line about mathematical inevitibility.

I think supers will be looking at two things, and two things alone, in these next two contests:

1. Can Barack make any inroads with Reagan Democrats?

2. Can Hillary make any inroads with African Americans?

I'm not suggesting the two factors are equal, and I won't try to say one is more important, but I think these two questions will be on the minds of superdelegates and analysts.


by bobbank on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:44:14 PM EST

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 2)

he's losing the inroads he made. His position on capital gains and SS has lost him big, and it gets bigger the more it sinks in. It's not his pastor that's the problem (although that guy should do Barack a favor and shut up), it's the issues. on foreign policy he's naive, and on domestic issues he's out of touch.  I think you guys need to prepare for your man not quite making it to the top job, this time anyway.  


by anna shane on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:55:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 1)

Not true.  He did better in most groups in PA than he did in OH.  A lot of this is regional though.  He'll do much worse in KY than he did in either PA or OH.



Lost rate and rec for issuing a '1' to a trollish comment. The troll, not so much.

by map on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:59:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 1)

And for whatever reason is doing better in Indiana.. I'm trying to figure out why.  Less moderate Dems, more Indies?  Proximity to Chicago media nexus?  I believe it is a younger voting pool, overall.


by bobbank on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 07:11:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 1)

While it's obviously not the only or even the primary factor, Obama does better in states with either a low AA population or a very high AA population.  Rustbelt states not so well. I'd explain in more detail but would get flamed for it I'm sure.



Lost rate and rec for issuing a '1' to a trollish comment. The troll, not so much.

by map on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 07:20:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 1)

It's ok - I read the Jay Cost piece making that same point.  I just hadn't connected the dots.


by bobbank on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 07:42:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 1)

Yeah, that's exactly what I was referring to.  I'm sure you can see why I would have been flamed by the faux outrage crowd.



Lost rate and rec for issuing a '1' to a trollish comment. The troll, not so much.

by map on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 07:58:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (none / 0)

The odd thing is that IN is one of those states with a low African American population that is also an old KKK state. There is a highschool in southern IN with a swastika on the gym floor (I have a friend whose brother went there). Then again, OR is another old klan state (although the klan was less powerful in OR than in IN, only openly controlling counties rather than the state government itself).


by alephnul on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 08:00:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 2)

Keep in mind the exit polls in Pennsylvania that you're referring to implicitly showed Obama nearly winning the state.  The actual results were much less favorable for him.  It's not surprising that the exit polls for all groups would skew Obama.  Whatever PA's exit polls said about his strength with specific groups, we can reasonably subtract about 5% across the board.  


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 07:14:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 1)

I think the same was true for the exit polls in Ohio.  Exit polls are definately not accurate, which is funny since many HRC supporters use them to claim she is supported by more "real" Democrats.



Lost rate and rec for issuing a '1' to a trollish comment. The troll, not so much.

by map on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 07:22:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (none / 0)

I don't think that's totally fair tho - once the exit polls have been properly weighted, based on actual election results, I think they become useful information.  It seems more reliably than a pre-election poll, anyway.


by bobbank on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 07:43:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (none / 0)

Agreed. The published exit polls are adjusted to match the election results.

There is still a lot of slop in exit polls, and trying to glean anything from the fine details is a fool's errand (53% of this group versus 48% of that group is not a difference worth paying attention to, and the fact it crosses the magic 50% line isn't either), but the fact that the preliminary exit polls miss the actual result doesn't mean you should apply a simple offset to the final exit poll details. The exit poll designers have already applied that offset (check this, add up the fractions and see what you get as a vote total) in a smarter way than just a simple offset (they actually know which precincts the polls were conducted in, and how at least some of the polled criteria (say gender distribution) differ from the precinct and total election level actual voter numbers).


by alephnul on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 08:08:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (none / 0)

Capital gains and Social Security? What are you talking about? These are not being discussed to any extent.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 07:46:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 1)

I know, it's an issue, it's not about his pastor. It's that his plan to tax capital gains as income hits those indies and left leaning libertarians in the guts. It's a fairness issue for Barack, even if it brings in more revenue. And raising the cap on social security is another big deal for many, it hits middle income people.  it's being played in pug outlets because it's an issue that many don't like. His health care plan that lets healthy young people or anyone who want to chance it opt out won him those votes in the first place, but he's lost them now.  And since it isn't in the news much, it's trickle down, so he's polling lower and lower with this demographic. I'm sure he knows.  I don't know why you didn't know.  But, now you do.  


by anna shane on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 08:37:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 2)

It's a fairness issue for Barack, even if it brings in more revenue.

Both Clinton and Obama want to raise the capital gains tax and Gibson was dead wrong when he said lowering the capital gains tax brings in more revenue.  

It is a Republican talking point that lowering taxes increases revenues.  

With Capital gains taxes, there is a small temporary surge of revenue when the rate is cut because brokers hold off sales until the cut goes into affect, but it is only a temporary surge.  Increasing the rate brings in higher revenues over the long term.



Lost rate and rec for issuing a '1' to a trollish comment. The troll, not so much.

by map on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 08:49:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 1)

I should add that I was pissed that Obama didn't have that answer at his fingertips.  I'm sure he will next time it comes up.



Lost rate and rec for issuing a '1' to a trollish comment. The troll, not so much.

by map on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 08:54:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (none / 0)

Middle income people make more than $90k?

You can add a donut to the SS cap, say no income between 90k and 150k gets taxed for SS, but income above 150k does, and it still raises about as much new revenue. Surely you aren't going to claim that the $150k + income crowd are middle income voters.

Likewise on capital gains taxes. I know the libertarians all fancy themselves future rich people, but exactly what fraction of the country actual receives a significant portion of their income from capital gains, and what is their income level?

Could you provide a link for how Obama is polling worse and worse with younger voters? I hadn't seen that. In PA, he did just as well with voters under 29 as he did with them in OH. It is true that he didn't improve his performance with them as he did with almost every other demographic over OH, but it is also true that young voters cuts across a lot of other demographics, and the overall demographics were worse for Obama in PA than in OH, so you'd actually expect to see him drop in his youth vote in PA compared to OH.


by alephnul on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 08:17:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (none / 0)

Capital gains?

So you think that's a big issue for most Americans?


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 12:06:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 1)

I think Clinton has always had control over the narrative on which states are must win.  For example, all the states listed above by TexasDarlin were states that Hillary was far ahead in and considered a lock to win.  And then, after she held her lead in states she was certain to win, she was the comeback kid!  My mind boggled.

I agree with you on what the SD's are going to look for, but I think they know you can't predict GE from an intra-party primary between two strong candidates.



Lost rate and rec for issuing a '1' to a trollish comment. The troll, not so much.

by map on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:58:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 1)

I wish, the media has controlled the narrative and they've been for Obama. they had him already elected and she's been asked when she's going to drop out starting right after she won Texas.  They're tying to make the narrative that she's the cause of his lowered support. The other one they're trying to sell (still) is that she thinks she's a queen and how dare she. the Hilary Hate has been the narrative.  It's getting a little better, but if anyone writes something newly critical of Barack, they have to add nasty stuff about her. If she wins it'll be because of the voters and because she's worked so hard, is so knowledgeable, and has such a great team in place that she's over the top clearly the better one. And amazing that it is, she had a real shot at that, with no little help from Barack.  She would have won much earlier if he hadn't run such a smart campaign against her and if he hadn't so much media help. but, I'm not complaining, she's doing great and she's set the bar very high and she has a great chance of being the winner.  


by anna shane on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 08:42:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (none / 0)

Since the race is actually (as Clinton and her supporters said early on) all about the delegates, it is strange to claim that she won TX. Go look at the TX delegate count again, and you will see that Obama has more of them.

Yes, the Texas system was weird. Yes, primaries are more just and fair than caucuses. That doesn't change the fact that Obama actually came out of TX with more delegates than Clinton. That is why she was asked when she was going to drop out. She needed to cut into Obama's delegate count and she didn't. She needed to cut into Obama's delegate count by a lot in PA, and she didn't. This is why she has been perceived to be losing, and why she is continuing to be perceived to be losing. Because she is losing.


by alephnul on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 08:24:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (none / 0)

I think the reason for this is because what we are looking at is what Obama must do so that Clinton must drop out of the race, not what he must do to eventually win the nomination. If Clinton had lost both OH and TX, it would have been absolutely clear that it was impossible for her to win anywhere, and that her campaign was done. She won OH, and lost by the delegate count in TX, so she could argue there was still a reason to stay in the race. If she had lost PA, she would have had to admit that she was done, but she managed to eke out the magic double digits (if you squint at the numbers just right), and that she should continue.

These states are the states that Clinton must win to stay in the race, not the states that Obama must win to stay in the race. At this point, there aren't any states that Obama must win to stay in the race. He would need to lose everything else by wide margins to not have a reason to stay in the race (if he lost everything else by wide margins, he'd be in something closer to the position where Clinton is now, needing the SDs to not stampede to Clinton, but he'd still have a hope of winning if he could convince the SDs that this inexplicable collapse was just a blip and not a fundamental problem).

The reason it looks biased is because we are looking at what the candidate who is behind needs to do to stick around and have a chance of a come from behind win later on, not what she needs to do to actually start coming from behind, and certainly not what she needs to do to put her competition out of the race.


by alephnul on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 08:38:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (none / 0)

In the very short term, it is. Clinton took PA, and Obama will take NC, so IN is both the determiner of 2 out of 3, and is also likely to determine which candidate ends up with more delegates out of the 3 states (although a very good performance in NC could make up for a slim loss in IN in giving Obama the lead).

But Clinton doesn't need to win a tie-breaker at the moment, Clinton needs a series of blow-out wins.

Still, interesting that Obama described it that way. My guess it is because it makes a sporting response to questions about how he just lost in PA and what happens now. The honest answer, I'm still ahead, and Clinton needs some big wins to retake my lead, just doesn't show the combination of joviality and dedication that people want from a winner.


by alephnul on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 08:57:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Ah, remember the good, old days... (2.00 / 3)

... when a confident Hillary Clinton told George Stephanopoulos that "It will all be over by February 5?"

Welcome to Spring and almost Summer, Senator Clinton!


by Bob Johnson on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:49:48 PM EST

Re: Ah, remember the good, old days... (2.00 / 2)

She has learned a lot since then, that's for sure.


by bobbank on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:56:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ah, remember the good, old days... (2.00 / 2)

she was wrong, but it will come to an end.  And the winner isn't yet chosen.  We'll see?  


by anna shane on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:56:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ah, remember the good, old days... (2.00 / 1)

We certainly will, but I'm a little taken aback that, this far down the thread, no one has corrected the diarist's misapprehension that this race is tied.  It's far from tied.  Clinton would have to win approximately 70% of the remaining pledged delegates to tie Obama.  She needs about 56% of the remaining popular vote to tie him in that metric -- among primaries and caucuses that currently count.  (I recognize that some folks here like to count the popular votes from MI and FL, and often like to leave out the popular votes from various caucus states.  The fact is, we can all talk about the actual contest being conducted in the current rules or about a shadow contest that a small subset of people think is the only fair one.  Take it as a sour persimmon if you wish, but I have news for you: The superdelegates are not going to base their decision on a metric that includes a margin of 328K votes for Clinton versus 0 for Obama coming out of Michigan.)

Can Clinton make up the pledged delegates or popular vote deficit?  Theoretically, yes.  Realistically, almost certainly not.  Take PA as an example: Another poster called Obama's loss "humiliating."  An odd characterization, I think, given that he managed to cut Clinton's poll leads  roughly in half, but whatever.  The fact is that, for all that large victory, Clinton's actual gain in pledged delegates was modest.  What was it? 10 to 12?  If you're playing the percentages, what PA really did was raise from about 65% to 70% the percentage of the remaining pledged delegates she needs to win.  We're not talking about 10% victories; we're talking about 40% wins -- 70% to 30%.  And when Obama wins NC handily and wins or narrowly loses IN, that percentage will go steeply up again.  Remember that NC is one of the most populous states in the country.

There are of course other metrics the SDs care about.  Fundraising is one, and there's no way Clinton will overtake Obama in that metric.  Also, grassroots organizing and how well or poorly a campaign is conducted.  Again, it's virtually impossible to find someone who thinks the Clinton campaign has been run better than Obama's.

If you found yourself saying, "Amen, brother!" when the diarist called this race a tie, you need to face facts.  It's not even close to a tie, and this isn't like a baseball game where one team can score a dozen runs in the bottom of the ninth.


by deminva on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 11:57:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Save your breath or your fingers - (none / 0)

They are not paying attention and haven't been for a while. The fat lady sang along time ago and they choose not to listen.  

To forestall any ill natured speculation on why, I want to state that as an old white woman myself I don't think it is because they are all old white women, although one I spoke to, with tears in her eyes declared, "I don't want to die before there is a woman president in this country."  

All I can say is, "Be careful what you wish for."  But it is a compelling wish, understandable and human.  We are just going to have to settle for having the first black president.  And I, for one, would have hated to die before that happened as well.
 


by oldbattleaxe on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 09:33:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 5)

Before Super Tuesday (Feb. 5th), people said Hillary had to win California plus a couple of states in the Northeast besides New York.
She did.  

Before March 4th, people said Hillary had to win Texas and Ohio.
She did (yes she won Texas, by more than 100,000 votes).

Then, people said she had to win Pennsylvania.
She did.


All very true.  She had to win all those to justify staying in the race, and she did.  Of course, I'd rather be leading the race than just doing well enough to stay in the race... but that's just me I guess.



Lost rate and rec for issuing a '1' to a trollish comment. The troll, not so much.

by map on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:54:08 PM EST

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 1)

there is more pressure on the front runner to close the deal. When it can't be closed the company promotes the next in line. If I were him I wouldn't be so sure.  It isn't exactly sewn up, and he does not speak for the supers. his polls are going south, he's losing cross over pugs and indies.  Hope only takes you so far, you need plans, and you also need the right people to carry out the plans.  Have you any idea how many experts, and retired professionals are going to roll up their sleeves and get to work when she's elected? did you know they've already started, that's what ready on day one really means.  


by anna shane on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 06:58:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (none / 0)

he's losing cross over pugs and indies.

Not really.  According to exit polls from TX, OH, and PA he's getting the same percentage of support from those groups as he always had.  Hillary however, is getting a ton more support from those groups than before.  Whether this is due to a genuine groundswell of support for her from republicans and indies, or "operation chaos" support I have no idea.


Lost rate and rec for issuing a '1' to a trollish comment. The troll, not so much.

by map on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 07:02:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (none / 0)

If you look at Gallup, for instance, Obama has hovered in the same range for ages, although Clinton has recently regained most of the undecideds. Sure, you can pick a recent peak (Obama) and trough (Clinton) and call the last few days the beginning of a trend line that will end with Clinton at 100% and Obama at 0%, but only if you trust that no one will remember your claim in 4 days time, or only if you don't mind looking like a fool.

If you look at Rasmussen instead, you can't even find anything that you could use to make up a trend line.


by alephnul on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 08:48:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 5)

Oh I think it's been good all around.

Hillary got knocked off her horse, and needed to be.  If she wins the nomination no one can ever say that it was handed to her, at this point, and even if she loses, no one can ever question her resolve or resilience.

And I think, no longer on horseback, walking around in the woods without enough money to spend poll-testing every g'damn soundbite, she has really learned a lot.

I found certain things about her objectionable, early in this campaign.  But she has really connected with these blue-collar workers that she now depends on, and I honestly think they have taught her a thing or two.

As for Obama, while I'd argue that he does have the advantage of a media cheerleading squad, for the most part, he has been brought back down to earth, too.  And we have learned he isn't all that different from other politicians, after all.  And we have learned that he can take a punch and he can hit back.  I think we're in a much better position to assess his strength v. McCain now than we were in February.

They are in a crucible and one will emerge far stronger than they were coming into this.


by bobbank on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 07:03:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 4)

Have some mojo.  I agree with all of that.  Both candidates are much better at campaigning than they were 6 months ago.  McCain on the other hand is an extremely weak campaigner.  I feel good about our chances in November even though the MSM is going to be bending over backwards to prop him up.



Lost rate and rec for issuing a '1' to a trollish comment. The troll, not so much.

by map on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 07:13:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 0)

Boy, are you right about McCain!  The one thing that props him up is his undeserved reputation for integrity.  He misspeaks continually and gets pissed off when anyone calls him on it.  The pressure of the fall campaign is going to hurt him badly.  Wait till folks start harping on his inconsistencies or demonstrating his ignorance on important issues.  


by deminva on Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 12:00:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 1)

There is alot of truth to that, as the race started it was being handed to her on a silver platter. Now she has to really work for it. And if she can win legitimately I'll happily vote for her.


Proudly joining the legions of people and states that don't matter on May 20th.
by Obama Independent on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 09:55:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 8 More States...Still a Tie (2.00 / 2)

Well, except the part about winning Texas.  She won the Texas primary but lost the state of Texas.


by ProgressiveDL on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 07:28:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]