(also at the G.O.S.)
Clinton just had an decisive 9-point win in PA after a gruesome six weeks. She's re-invigorated, and her followers are electrified. 10 million dollars streamed in from 500K new sources overnight, and the campaign is "fired up."
Unfortunately, Hillary's debts were up to 15.3 million dollars three weeks ago (counting the 5 million she loaned her campaign), and this latest influx of money has not been near enough to pull her out of the red.
If Hillary is indeed a viable candidate, how can her campaign still be in so much financial distress?
Poor money management is certainly one answer, and an important consideration, given that she wants to be at the helm of our economy.
But another factor points to a disturbing aspect of Clinton's candidacy, and one that hasn't been discussed nearly enough.
Clinton's core of support is extremely soft.
Now, there's no doubt that Clinton's most ardent admirers are just that. Innumerable women have waited a long lifetime for the opportunity to elect a female president. Policy Blue Dogs, "free trade"-ers, DLC Dems, hawkish defenders of Israel, health care issue voters, and people who just plain loved the Clinton presidency are rock solid for Hillary. That's exemplified noplace more strongly than here on this blog.
But there just aren't enough of such folks. How else could Clinton's loyal have allowed their candidate not only to go utterly broke, but to rack up embarrassing debts that have painfully stiffed a good number of the working folks and small business owners that Hillary purports to champion?
Money is a strong measure of general enthusiasm for a candidate, especially when it comes in small donations from a large number of donors.
Caucuses are also a measure of widespread passion, of the intensity of support for a candidate. It is no accident that Hillary finds herself trounced in them.
Pollsters like to blame Obama for the fact that 26% of Hillary voters say they'll defect to McCain or stay home if she's not the nominee. Pundits and Clinton-activists argue that Obama is not reaching people, that folks don't trust him, that Democrats on the whole are leery of committing to him.
"Operation Chaos" voters aside (and we have no way to measure how profoundly they've falsely inflated the Clinton vote), there are certainly Clinton zealots who would take out their disappointment on Obama, were he to become the nominee. But that isn't the bulk of the "defectors." The fact is, the majority of the "26%" are folks who may be fed up with W because times are hard, but they also have no basic loyalty to the Democratic party or to its greater platform. Many may be registered Democrats (or not), but they bring no particular devotion to progressive issues. Some are outright hostile to core principles within the Democratic party.
That's why they don't send Hillary money.
That's why, when interviewed out of polite company, their vote is usually against Obama for cultural reasons, rather than for Hillary on matters of leadership or policy. It's why so many of the Pennsylvania folks who voted for Hillary also indicated to exit pollsters that they don't particularly trust or like her. With the GOP candidate decided, the "Reagan Democrat" vote was not so much a vote of enthusiam for Hillary but a gesture of default.
George W. Bush has taught us, if nothing else, that capturing the "center's" capricious swing voters becomes less critical if the party base is thoroughly energized, and if high numbers of new voters are drawn from the party's natural wing. (And somehow, swing voters seem to find their way anyway to a charismatic candidate who refuses to pander and compromise.)
Not since Kennedy has the Democratic party seen as much energy and enthusiasm for a candidate, nor a candidate more able to draw crowds, money and new voters (including Republicans and Independents), as they have in Obama.
Ignoring this momentum, and staking our aim for the presidency instead on Hillary's "Reagan Democrats" is extremely dangerous, because they are fickle, and may just as likely be seduced by a "moderate," "maverick" McCain in November ANYWAY.
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