My own 2 cents, fwiw:

the reason that the polling has been so highly variant has been that the pollsters have been having trouble accounting for the turnout.

if Obama can regain his high turnout (which appeared to fall in PA) among college students and AAs, then some pollsters have correctly incorporated that and will be more accurate.

on the other hand, if, as I suspect, the slight dinks to Obama's shiny polish have caused college students and AAs to stay home closer to previous, non-Obama trends, then HRC will outperform these polls.

I don't think these polls capture intensity and they're obviously having a difficult time predicting turnout.  I'll go out and say HRC +7 in Indiana.

Have you worried about Markos or KO who seem hell-bent on a Obama or bust approach?

Do you think they will vote for McCain?

If not, then why do you think other similar progressives will vote for McCain? Just because someone doesnt agree with you, doesnt mean they like McCain. And even if someone likes McCain, doesnt mean one will vote for him.

I think we'll all eventually come together--who wants a Pres McCain?  But, as a Hillary early voter in CA, I will tell you, I believe it will be Obama. First, he brought energy to the party. Second, the supers do not want to be responsible for taking the win away from him a.k.a. a black man (yes, it will be a win after NC and IN), Third, he's turning people like me (50 year old white female) around.  I will vote for either, but now getting caught up in the Obama energy, I will support with my time, energy, effort, and money Obama. I would have supported Hillary with only my vote. The supers don't want to lose the energy forces that Obama brings to the table for down ticket votes. They are not stupid. I am not the only one thinking this way.There are many converts. There will be more after 5/6.  End this thing!

Do you live here in Indiana? No? Didn't think so, so don't pretend to speak for us.

nt.

Was that question asked only of Democrats, or of all registered voters?

the Indiana polls have been particularly erratic and bc we have few... the RA are kinda befunkity ( I believe this is the technical term. The movement is around Clinton and undecided  http://www.pollster.com/08-IN-Dem-Pres-P rimary.php

The SUSA polls seem to have really low undecideds but maybe it is the automated thing.. if you dont know you just hang up.

I'm putting my money on Obama. Also, Hillary's areas are not as populated as Obama's strongholds. Most of the democratic vote comes from the northern part of the state.

uhh. indianapolis machine has nothing to do with the mayor.. but many Indy Dems are pissed at the sheer ineptitude of the party--see the Peterson loss and Sonny Carson as two recent examples where the party faithful were left with a distinct impression the party is being run by Larry, Curly, or Moe. Come to think of it, it is probably Shemp.

Indianapolis's new Republican mayor probably doesn't have a machine to work with at this point --- he was elected in something of a shocker with few of the state's Republicans giving him much in the way of support against the former popular mayor, Peterson.

I haven't heard whether Peterson is supporting either candidate in particular, and I guess I don't know how much of his machine is still in place. For a fair chunk of Indy, Andrea Carson's machine was pretty formidable. Andre took over for his mother when she died, and he's supporting Obama. I suppose the same machine is still in place.

Indy and The Region make up a sizable chunk of the Democratic population of Indiana and probably give Obama a respectable shot in Indiana. Obama's recent pickup of the endorsement of Evansville's popular mayor is especially helpful to him too.

Counterbalancing that, Hillary has a lot of the same favorable demographics in Indiana as she had in Pennsylvania; though I tend to feel that Indiana's culture is quite a bit different from Pennsylvania culture.

I think that operation might be slowly falling apart, though. Right now, he's trying to convince his followers to keep Hillary in the race as long as possible, maybe even giving her a shot at winning. Boy oh boy do they hate that idea.

I'm pretty sure that whatever happens in Indiana and North Carolina, people like you will be beating that drum anyways.

If she wins by 10, it will certainly be impressive. Admittedly, the polls are pretty thin in number, so we can't know, but that certainly looks like it would be a big movement towards Clinton, which is something we haven't seen in any primary so far this year. If she could pull that off, I'd be impressed.

I don't think it would get her to actually beating Obama though... Not unless she can also cut Obama's win in NC to under 5.

Under 5 in NC, and IN by 10, and I think I would start to pay attention again. Follow it up with a win in OR, and I'd start to wonder what was going on.

I'd give it less than a 1% chance of happening in this universe, but it would actually get me to think that she had an argument as to why the SDs should think about voting for her.