I'm a supporter of Clinton by attrition. First there was the MapChanger, Mark Warner, than Clark, then a glance at Obama & Richardson, and then hoping for Edwards. Clinton was the last standing, and most electable of the two candidates left, or really, the one who wasn't an un-tested gamble. There is no doubt that Clinton's electability has issues, but to highlight those, while claiming Obama is unassailable in his electability, can only happen if one ignores reality.
The problem with this type of Obama supporter, is that they still live in a pre-Wright bubble, in their estimation of an Obama GE candidacy. They are stuck in February and early March, when they saw Obama as the second coming of 50-state campaigner that would move us beyond the battleground days. That's not the Obama of late April. Neither is Clinton going to move us beyond a battleground strategy. They both have very different states where they are strong, and likewise where they are weaker than the other.
With that in mind, this is easy pickins. Markos concludes:
That's doable.
Florida, where Obama trails Clinton by an average of 12% in the last three polls, isn't an exception, but one of many.
States where Clinton leads and Obama trails McCain:
Ohio, where Clinton leads McCain by an average of 5% over the last three polls, bests McCain by 8% over Obama, who trails McCain in the state.
Arkansas, Clinton leads by an average of 6% over McCain, while Obama trails McCain by an average of 25 percent, over the last three polls.
States that Clinton puts in play whereas Obama isn't competitive:
Missouri, Clinton trails by an average of 3% against McCain,while Obama trails by by an average of 12%, over the last three polls.
West Virginia, Clinton leads McCain by 5% according the the SUSA poll, while Obama trails by 18 percent.
Kentucky, Clinton trails McCain by just 2% in the latest SUSA poll, while Obama trails by 24 percent.
States that are in play with Obama that are not with Clinton:
New Jersey, Clinton leads by 6% over McCain, while Obama and McCain are tied, over the last four polls.
Massachusetts, Clinton leads by 16% over McCain, while Obama leads by 2% over McCain, over the last three polls.
Overall, Florida's 27 delegates, added with Ohio's 20 and Arkansas 6 equals 53 EV's is states that Clinton could win today, but Obama will start off behind. Clinton puts in play an additional 24 EV's that are currently out of reach by Obama. And McCain has 27 EV's in play against Obama that he doesn't against Clinton.
Those are pretty significant numbers in Clinton's column, and they add up to a EV lead today of 284 - 244 over McCain. You could quibble about the categories, neverminding that alot of those state polls in non-battleground states are reflective of February, or earlier, results. Or, you could take a dose of reality and realize that either Clinton or Obama would have a tough map against McCain, doable but battling-- and foolish to claim otherwise.
|
|
|
Permalink :: 273 Comments :: Post a Comment
|
In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.
If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.