Clinton's play over Obama

I'm a supporter of Clinton by attrition. First there was the MapChanger, Mark Warner, than Clark, then a glance at Obama & Richardson, and then hoping for Edwards. Clinton was the last standing, and most electable of the two candidates left, or really, the one who wasn't an un-tested gamble. There is no doubt that Clinton's electability has issues, but to highlight those, while claiming Obama is unassailable in his electability, can only happen if one ignores reality.

The problem with this type of Obama supporter, is that they still live in a pre-Wright bubble, in their estimation of an Obama GE candidacy. They are stuck in February and early March, when they saw Obama as the second coming of 50-state campaigner that would move us beyond the battleground days. That's not the Obama of late April. Neither is Clinton going to move us beyond a battleground strategy. They both have very different states where they are strong, and likewise where they are weaker than the other.

With that in mind, this is easy pickins. Markos concludes:

"Really, I can go through polls all day (and likely will over the coming two weeks), showing how in most states Obama runs stronger and has greater coattail potential than Clinton. I'm even ignoring pre-'Bitter' polls to ensure the numbers aren't just fresh, but include all of Obama's baggage. Yet as we'll see in the vast majority of cases (the biggest exception being Florida, though there are several others), Obama does far better. [...] So remind me again how is Clinton 'more electable' against McCain than Obama?

That's doable.

Florida, where Obama trails Clinton by an average of 12% in the last three polls, isn't an exception, but one of many.

States where Clinton leads and Obama trails McCain:

Ohio, where Clinton leads McCain by an average of 5% over the last three polls, bests McCain by 8% over Obama, who trails McCain in the state.

Arkansas, Clinton leads by an average of 6% over McCain, while Obama trails McCain by an average of 25 percent, over the last three polls.

States that Clinton puts in play whereas Obama isn't competitive:

Missouri, Clinton trails by an average of 3% against McCain,while Obama trails by by an average of 12%, over the last three polls.

West Virginia, Clinton leads McCain by 5% according the the SUSA poll, while Obama trails by 18 percent.

Kentucky, Clinton trails McCain by just 2% in the latest SUSA poll, while Obama trails by 24 percent.

States that are in play with Obama that are not with Clinton:

New Jersey, Clinton leads by 6% over McCain, while Obama and McCain are tied, over the last four polls.

Massachusetts, Clinton leads by 16% over McCain, while Obama leads by 2% over McCain, over the last three polls.

Overall, Florida's 27 delegates, added with Ohio's 20 and Arkansas 6 equals 53 EV's is states that Clinton could win today, but Obama will start off behind. Clinton puts in play an additional 24 EV's that are currently out of reach by Obama. And McCain has 27 EV's in play against Obama that he doesn't against Clinton.

Those are pretty significant numbers in Clinton's column, and they add up to a EV lead today of 284 - 244 over McCain. You could quibble about the categories, neverminding that alot of those state polls in non-battleground states are reflective of February, or earlier, results. Or, you could take a dose of reality and realize that either Clinton or Obama would have a tough map against McCain, doable but battling-- and foolish to claim otherwise.



Display:


Hm. The polling doesn't seem to be (2.00 / 1)

too badly changed by Wright. It doesn't feed into the Obama narrative like Tuzla feeds into the Clinton narrative.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 05:04:43 PM EST

Wright Disaster (2.00 / 1)

Wait for Wright's interview on Friday with Bill Moyers:

Mr. Obama publicly denounced Mr. Wright's remarks, a reaction Mr. Wright said "went down very simply." "He's a politician, I'm a pastor," he said. "We speak to two different audiences. And he says what he has to say as a politician. I say what I have to say as a pastor. But they're two different worlds." He added, "I do what I do. He does what politicians do. So that what happened in Philadelphia where he had to respond to the sound bytes, he responded as a politician."

Basically, Obama repudiated Wright's statements for political expediency. In addition, Wright had no remorse for any of his remarks:

In Mr. Wright's sermons, he suggested that Americans bore some responsibility for the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, saying "America's chickens are coming home to roost." He also blamed the government for the spread of AIDS among African-Americans, characterized the United States government as corrupt and referred to the "U.S. of K.K.K. A."
He did not apologize or back away from his remarks in the interview...

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/ 04/24/wright-says-his-words-were-twisted /


I'm United Methodist. I already have a Messiah.
by KnowVox on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 05:17:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wright Disaster (2.00 / 1)

This is a pretty egregious misread of what Wright is saying in that interview.  

Saying "I'm a pastor, I talk about God.  Obama is a politician, he talks about politics" is only controversial if you somehow read the word "politician" to mean "lying opportunist" and not "someone who works in politics."

Rev. Wright is highlighting the two different worlds in which they operate; Rev. Wright is a religious figure and addresses societal problems in what he sees to be religious manner, Obama is a politician and thus addresses societal problems politically, as he did in his speech.

"Politics" is about a lot more than just wiping your own ass.   Or at least it should be.


by davisb on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 05:24:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wright Disaster (2.00 / 1)

"Politics" is about a lot more than just wiping your own ass.   Or at least it should be.

Try explaining that to the average American voter who sees "politics" as responsible for sending their kids to war while the price of oil continues to skyrocket and reap record profits for Exxon, etc.

This is a pretty egregious misread of what Wright is saying in that interview.

Actually, yours is a remarkable generous read of Wright's remarks, especially when he adamantly refuses to retract his inflammatory rhetoric. Most folks wouldn't characterize someone who calls for an entire nation to be damned as a "man of God."


I'm United Methodist. I already have a Messiah.
by KnowVox on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 05:42:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wright Disaster (2.00 / 0)

Yes, she's more electable, at least partly because she's over-qualified and the hardest worker anyone could suppose. But he has a problem separate from hers, which is that his whole hope message needs a mandate, not a squeak through political 'win.' His whole reason is this bottom up thing that depends on an overwhelming number of voters from all  parties who are supposed to all come together under his inspirational leadership.  Once he lost that, he lost the reason for him in the first place. if he's just a politician, which of course he is, then why not have the most experienced on, the one that's most electable, the one who lays out her solutions agenda says how she'll do it and with whom, and how it'll be paid for. What's the point of a pure hope candidate if he can't win not just clearly, but overwhelmingly?  He's losing support now, because he's been clearer, how many converted pugs and libertarians went back once he said he'd take investment income just like wages?  There is not popular support for that, no mandate, and he ought to have known that what feels fair to him, isn't necessarily either prudent or fair.  So, if he's bottom up, when will he start listening to the bottom?  


by anna shane on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 06:04:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

you must be completely unaware of good... (2.00 / 1)

preaching.  that a minister would use provocative rhetoric to make his point is pretty s.o.p. and actually graded higher in the better seminaries around the country.  your apparent view, that religion should somehow be subservient to politics, is rather radical, and -- quite frankly -- heretical.

you may be methodist, as am i, but it seems you are ignorant of what occurs in your own denomination...


"Anyone who voted for me or caucused for me has so much more in common with Senator Obama than Senator McCain." -- Hillary Clinton
by bored now on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 06:16:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ridiculous (2.00 / 2)

Show me the seminary that advocates using terms like "U.S. of KKK" "Hillary ain't never been called a n*gger" and "God Damn America!"


I'm United Methodist. I already have a Messiah.
by KnowVox on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 07:05:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

well, union and duke... (1.00 / 0)

for start.  the very fact that you ask the question belies an ignorance of what is, and what is not, mainstream in theology and preaching.  which is ok, since you're not really trying to argue either one.  

the fact is that sermons should provoke listeners to think and challenge them to act.  wright is considered mainstream by other mainstream preachers who are more familiar with the need to make the gospel relevant than either of us.

and, yes, i understand the desire to attempt to swiftboat obama with wright for all the reasons that people have.  in the mainline montgomery county office, we had three democratic voters who declared to our volunteers that they would never vote for a black to be their president.  so i got it...


"Anyone who voted for me or caucused for me has so much more in common with Senator Obama than Senator McCain." -- Hillary Clinton
by bored now on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 07:13:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: well, union and duke... (2.00 / 1)

Neither Union or Duke advocate using hate speech to preach the Gospel.

No one's "swiftboating" Obama but himself. He voluntarily chose to listen to Wright's screeds, and it's perfectly acceptable for voters to question his longtime association. This isn't about race; it's about judgment.

And frankly, for every person who claims they'd never vote for a black, a number of equally bigoted people will say they'd never vote for a woman. Neither view is morally acceptable.


I'm United Methodist. I already have a Messiah.
by KnowVox on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 07:22:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

both union and duke... (2.00 / 1)

encourage their ministerial students to provoke and challenge their congregants.  no reasonable person would consider what wright said "hate speech," hence no one is arguing that union or duke do, either.

your ignorance here betrays the points you want to make.  the judgment in question at the moment is your's, given the attempt at character assassination...


"Anyone who voted for me or caucused for me has so much more in common with Senator Obama than Senator McCain." -- Hillary Clinton
by bored now on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 07:42:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wright's Hate Speech (none / 0)

> no reasonable person would consider what wright said "hate speech"

Obama himself called Wright's sermons ""inflammatory and appalling."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con tent/article/2008/03/14/AR2008031404218_ pf.html


I'm United Methodist. I already have a Messiah.
by KnowVox on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 02:57:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wright Disaster (2.00 / 1)

"Try explaining that to the average American voter who sees "politics" as responsible for sending their kids to war"

Good thing some of us aren't backing the canidate who threw these voters' kids lives away for political captial then huh!


by Socraticsilence on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 06:32:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re:Obama's War Credentials (2.00 / 1)

Good thing some of us aren't voting for a guy who continued to fund this war, took a pass on Kyl Lieberman and backed Cheney's energy bill to boot.


I'm United Methodist. I already have a Messiah.
by KnowVox on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 07:06:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

you choose mccain, eh? (1.00 / 0)


"Anyone who voted for me or caucused for me has so much more in common with Senator Obama than Senator McCain." -- Hillary Clinton
by bored now on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 07:15:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Nope. I choose Clinton. (2.00 / 1)


I'm United Methodist. I already have a Messiah.
by KnowVox on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 07:24:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re:Obama's War Credentials (2.00 / 0)

You mention one of the many things that turns me off of Obama.  Down here in North Carolina he's running ads - very good, slick pieces - standing in front of gas pumps decrying oil company profits and calling for windfall taxes on them.  Yep, standing there bashing big oil after casting a vote for an energy bill subsidizing them.  And he wants people to believe he's "different" or, as his wife puts it, "special".  Give. Me. A. Break.  


by Tolstoy on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 07:17:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re:Obama's War Credentials (2.00 / 0)

Agreed. There was absolutely no excuse for Obama to vote for the Cheney energy bill.


I'm United Methodist. I already have a Messiah.
by KnowVox on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 07:25:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re:Obama's War Credentials (none / 0)

If I told you as a "green business" that the Energy bill was a boon to my business, would you believe me?


by zadura on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:43:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

In a word? (none / 0)

No.


I'm United Methodist. I already have a Messiah.
by KnowVox on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 12:11:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: In a word? (none / 0)

Exactly, because you are a cultist.  


by zadura on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 12:55:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

just wait (none / 0)

This is a pretty egregious misread of what Wright is saying in that interview.  

Just wait till after the program actually airs. Gonna be seriously ugly around here.


by BlueinColorado on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 05:59:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

(insert sarcastic lynching comment here) (none / 0)

Use your imagination


by bernardpliers on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 06:41:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wright Disaster (none / 0)

Unless Wright is proven to be a mind reader that's meaningless.

Dems don't play guilt by assocation. Not thatI have a problem ith Wright.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 05:35:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wright Disaster (none / 0)

For 20 years, he's been Obama's spiritual adviser and mentor. It's disengenuious to claim he's clueless about why Obama publicly denounced him.


I'm United Methodist. I already have a Messiah.
by KnowVox on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 05:45:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wright Disaster (2.00 / 1)

Hm. Do you think that Hillary Clinton believes everything her spiritual mentor and guide Doug Coe believes? Do you think Doug Coe knows everything she believes?


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 05:52:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wright Disaster (none / 0)

No, and attempting to equate the two is likewise disengenuious.


I'm United Methodist. I already have a Messiah.
by KnowVox on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 06:12:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wright Disaster (none / 0)

You don't know much about Doug Coe then.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 06:52:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wright Disaster (none / 0)

To the contrary.


I'm United Methodist. I already have a Messiah.
by KnowVox on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 06:57:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wright Disaster (none / 0)

What do you know?


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 07:15:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

OK, Chris Matthews (none / 0)

"Tell me something I don't know."


I'm United Methodist. I already have a Messiah.
by KnowVox on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 07:29:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: OK, Chris Matthews (none / 0)

What do you know about Doug Coe? Or the The Family?


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 07:33:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: OK, Chris Matthews (none / 0)

*The Family even.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 07:34:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: OK, Chris Matthews (none / 0)

Everything you know, and then some.


I'm United Methodist. I already have a Messiah.
by KnowVox on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 12:09:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

By Your Logic Is Hillary A Nazi, Maoist, or Both? (none / 0)

Because Doug Coe praises Hitler and Mao as leaders whose methods should be emulated.

You think the GOP won't use Coe after Hillary has based her whole campaign on Wright?

She'd have no room to complain and the press would use her as a pinata.


by bernardpliers on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 06:57:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: By Your Logic (none / 0)

Doug Coe pastors Democrats as well as Republicans. The GOP would be foolish to make an issue about this, with McCain-Backer John Hagee in the picture.


I'm United Methodist. I already have a Messiah.
by KnowVox on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 07:12:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: By Your Logic (none / 0)

Clinton is in a sex-segregated cell and has been for years. That's way beyond going to the prayer breakfast.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 07:15:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: By Your Logic (none / 0)

I should point out that if the GOP would think twice about going after Clinton over that dictator loving psycho, Doug Coe, but they wouldn't think twice about going after Rev. Wright then there seems to be only one reason why as Rev. Wright's words echoed civil rights leaders of old and not so old.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 07:19:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

IOKIYAR (none / 0)

Why won't Hillary deny that she a genocidal maniac?

WHY?


by bernardpliers on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 07:59:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Everyone knows he's a politician (2.00 / 1)

Everyone knows Obama is a politician and that the reason he made that speech at that time was to defend himself.  I don't think the "he's a politician" statement is going to hurt Obama.

Moyers will treat Wright fairly.  Whether or not Wright will hurt Obama here depends on what he says in this interview, I agree, but saying he's a politician isn't going to be a big deal, IMHO.


by joanneleon on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 06:21:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Wright on Moyers Show (2.00 / 1)

Respectfully, I disagree. Moyers is graciously providing Wright the opportunity to repudiate his inflammatory remarks and hate speech. The fact that Wright declined will make for more headlines and fodder more republican-style commercials featuring his caustic preaching style.


I'm United Methodist. I already have a Messiah.
by KnowVox on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 07:02:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wright on Moyers Show (none / 0)

Well you are certainly an expert on "republican style," thats for sure.


"And to my fellow Americans I say this... get off my lawn." John McCain, August 2008
by JDF on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 07:58:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's play over Obama (2.00 / 2)

The Presidency shouldn't be the top concern here; Clinton vs. Obama is an electability wash.

What the Dems really need are some more Senators.  Which candidate performs best in those states with crucial Senate races?  

I'd have to give that one to Obama...


by davisb on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 05:07:26 PM EST

You mean a contested convention... (none / 0)

could be an "untested gamble"?

Whoops, strike that, not a gamble, but a sure path to a November disaster. (That is of course why Pelosi, Reid and Dean are insisting this end by June.)

At the end of the day, only a fool like Jerome gives a rat's ass about which of the two egoists and their cronies might gain the nomination in Denver after a long hot summer of intra-party feuding.

Heck, by then the nomination might well be worthless, as it's a good gamble McCain would ride our dissension to the next Presidency.

But no, according to the math of Armstrong the important thing is that in the end, no matter the collateral damage, the important thing is for HRC to be the last candidate standing. Far better than the Party actually coalescing behind the leader.


Clinton Democrats care about the same things I do, most importantly beating John McCain.
by TrueBlueCT on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 05:49:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You mean a contested convention... (2.00 / 1)

What's weird is that the polling clearly shows that Obama rewrite the map and eats into the West. You'd think that would be a good thing as that what Dems who want to broaden the party want to do.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 05:53:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Oh, we could be having a great year.... (2.00 / 1)

if only the Clinton gang would let go instead of taking the Party to the brink.

If Barack were in the same position she is, after February I would have backed away and told him, "great run", maybe you get to be V-P, but it's time for the Party to come together.

What I'd never do is believe that this contest of egos is worth ruining our Progressive moment over, (Bush, Iraq, the Economy have set 2008 up as a potential watershed election.)

But noooooo, we're locked in this stupid power game whereby we're about to cut the proverbial baby in fucking half.


Clinton Democrats care about the same things I do, most importantly beating John McCain.
by TrueBlueCT on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 06:10:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oh, we could be having a great year.... (2.00 / 2)

If my man Edwards was in Clinton's position I'd beg him to drop out with daily phone calls and emails and would try to get all my friends to do the same. Same for Obama. It's a delegate race and pretending there is any chance to catch up by moving the goal posts every day is simply unconscionable.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 06:23:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's play over Obama (none / 0)

The Presidency shouldn't be the top concern here; Clinton vs. Obama is an electability wash.

What the Dems really need are some more Senators.  Which candidate performs best in those states with crucial Senate races?  

You can't predict coattails in May, with all due respect. Obama, if nominated, could very well be a drag in Novemeber on downticket races in many areas.

For evidence, see the RNC ad running in NC right now.


by arkansasdemocrat on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 06:17:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The biggest drag will be a house divided... (2.00 / 1)

and that's were the Clinton Gang wants to take us.

All the way through a long hot summer to the August convention, where at best they have a long-shot chance of gaining the nomination. (and an even longer shot of actually winning the nomination, since the longer this goes on, the more it benefits John McCain.)


Clinton Democrats care about the same things I do, most importantly beating John McCain.
by TrueBlueCT on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 06:21:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The biggest drag will be a house divided... (none / 0)

I'm so sick of these Obamabots demanding Hillary, the winer of the last three contests, (Ohio, Texas, Pennsylvania) the winner of the Popular vote if you consider "popular vote" to include the tremendously motivated Democrats who came out to vote in spite of being told to "drop out of the race", the current LEADER in seper delegates, the current LEADER if you count Democrat-only votes, the current LEADER if you count only BIG states with more than 100 delegates.

That ship sank, Bud.  You forgot to get on one of the lifeboats.


by dembluestates on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 12:53:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's play (2.00 / 5)

It's a no-brainer, and has been a no-brainer for a long time.  HRC does much better than BHO in the purple states -- those are the states that matter come November.


by moevaughn on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 05:10:34 PM EST

Re: Clinton's play (2.00 / 3)

That's not really true.

Clinton outperforms Obama in these purple states:
NJ, FL, MO, PA, OH

Obama outperforms Clinton in these purple states:
NH, MI, WI, MN, IA, CO, NM, NV, WA, OR

A much more complex picture...


by davisb on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 05:16:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's play (2.00 / 1)

What also destroy's this whole argument is FL

Real Clear politcs has Flordia going to McCain.
And if that is true...HRC is DOA
 - And it likely IS true becuase HRC has horrible GE likeability numbers


by gil44 on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 05:59:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's play (none / 0)

excuse me, McCain v Clinton it goes to McCain


by gil44 on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 05:59:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's play (2.00 / 1)

Some thoughts on this: 1. Clinton will have a net delegate loss on May 6, because more delegates come from North Carolina than Indiana. She may have scored points in the media by "writing off" NC, but it's not going to win the nomination. 2. There haven't been any polls from Florida in the last two weeks. My guess is that the next Rasmussen poll from there will have both losing to McCain by 7-10%. So now the edge is back to Obama. 3. Now, the last couple of months have shown that either Obama or Clinton will have to work with the Kerry/Gore map plus OH, IA and NM. It's a tough map for both. Clinton's edge on electability is slight and could be enough in November, but she's not going to get the nomination.
by mikelow1885 on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 06:44:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's play (none / 0)

If thats your measure of a good candidate, then track back and see who actually polls better in "purple" states. Answer: Obama.


Enough already...
by pjv on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 12:14:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Awesome. (2.00 / 6)

Open blog feud between Armstrong and Markos. Popcorn!

Snark aside, this is an important conversation to have, and it's fascinating to watch the points being lobbed over the fence one by one.


"This election is not about ideology, it's about competence." -Michael Dukakis
by MBNYC on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 05:11:14 PM EST

Re: Awesome. (2.00 / 1)

Yea, two years ago, I would have thought I never would have seen the day.

GO HILLARY!!


The Kentucky Democrat
by kydem on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 05:24:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Awesome. (2.00 / 3)

We get along fine together, I think he's coming around to see that Obama has just as hard a time as Clinton, or more (imo).


by Jerome Armstrong on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 05:24:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Awesome. (2.00 / 2)

What's actually really funny is to watch some denizens of your respective blogs trying to make this into some massive flamewar.

In a way, this entire discussion isn't so much about electability - you can't gauge that at this stage anyway - but is a proxy for where the party should be focusing its energies and who it should be trying to attract. Obama should be worried about Latinos and blue-collars, Hillary about youth and blacks.

The critical factor, and why I think we can manage to garner both of their coalitions, is that whoever loses will campaign hard for the other. This isn't going to turn into an either/or scenario.


"This election is not about ideology, it's about competence." -Michael Dukakis
by MBNYC on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 05:49:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Awesome. (none / 0)

Myself, I knew this was gonna be tough no matter who won either primary. I've never bought into the triumphalism. With St McCain, it becomes a difficult rather than a close race. I think it's more difficult with Clinton than with Obama.


by BlueinColorado on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 06:01:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Awesome. (2.00 / 1)

I appreciate the conversation between you and Markos.  It's clear that it isn't a flame war.  Both of you have mentioned more than once in your posts that you remain friends.

But, could you please talk some sense into him?! ;)


by joanneleon on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 06:24:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Never claimed otherwise (2.00 / 1)

I'll argue Obama has an easier map, but neither can take this thing for granted.

What is true, overall, is that Obama runs stronger in states he's likely to lose, which is important down-ballot.

Does it matter if Obama loses Idaho by 15 and Clinton by 38? Sure, it does to our Senate and House candidates in the state.


by kos on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 06:35:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Never claimed otherwise (2.00 / 1)

Obama is essentially untested in a hostile political climate where he is not liked.  In the general roughly 50% of total population will be siding against him rather than 25% against and 50% don't care.  His media ride will end.  

McCain doesn't have the built in negatives to play against that Hillary does and his whole campaign melts.

He will melt.  
He will be McGovern, Mondale etc.

Those who support Obama need to consider the effects that losing this cycle will have on his career.  It may end it.  If he wins the Clinton faction which represents the majority of the party votes cast so far by almost a 1 million vote margin will remember.  And he will be as fresh as Kerry next time.

If you support Obama your strongest case for Obama for presesident is Clinton/Obama in 2008 and Obama/Someone else in 2012 or 2016.  A loss of the Clinton/Obama ticket doesn't hurt Obama and helps remove the built in dislike for him in the Clinton faction.  

Obama/Clinton doesn't win and so many of us won't vote for any other Obama ticket that defeat is built in.

We can argue about it but if you sit down and think it through you know its true.


by DTaylor on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 07:20:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Never claimed otherwise (2.00 / 1)

Way too soon to tell who has down-ballot strength and who does not.  It is a distant second in importance to winning the Whitehouse anyways.  I want to nominate the best candidate to win the Whitehouse, even if the person is worse for those down-ballot.  It will be little comfort to lose the Whitehouse, but say 'hey we picked up 4 seats'.  This is a primary to field the best candidate for President.  Period.  Obama strength in a State is often limited to highly populated areas.  That may help Senate candidates, but may do little for congressional canidates since votes can not leave the district they vote in.


by oaktownchicken on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 07:25:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's play over Obama (2.00 / 1)

I think you mean:

"States that Clinton solidly leads that are in play with Obama"

instead of your category:

"States that are in play with Clinton that are not with Obama"


by mikes101 on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 05:12:01 PM EST

Re: Clinton's play over Obama (none / 0)

yea, thanks.


by Jerome Armstrong on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 05:22:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's play over Obama (2.00 / 4)

damn the truth...has finally been uttered.


--++++Stay Gold, Ponyboy!++++--
by amde on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 05:12:17 PM EST

Re: Clinton's play over Obama (2.00 / 3)

yes yes and yes.

The Orange ones are working over time today, but for a sense of what Kos is engendering look at the top rec'd diary on kos now.

Saying Obama must be he nominee because it doesnt matter if he cant win in November.


by zane on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 05:13:06 PM EST

Re: Clinton's play over Obama (none / 0)

Oh, Jaysus!  Say it ain't so.


by Caldonia on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 05:41:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's play over Obama (2.00 / 1)

Here's a quote (this is where Obama is leading our party- straight over the cliff):

Let's give the mendacious Clinton camp the benefit of the doubt and say that Hillary is a sure thing, while Obama would likely lose.  Wrong, but let's grant that idea.

I.  Wouldn't.  Care.  Anyway.  And neither should you.

Why not, you say?  What could be more important than ending the occupation of Iraq and saving thousands or tens of thousands of lives (though there are doubts about whether Clinton would truly end it), preventing an attack on Iran (though there are doubts about what Clinton would do there, too), enacting the beginnings of universal healthcare, ending the insane fiscal mismanagement of the Bush Administration, putting to bed the Imperial Presidency, beginning action on curbing CO2 emissions and other environmental degradataion, and helping to ensure that the Supreme Court does not fall into irreparably conservative, insanely dogmatic hands?  What could be more important than all this?

Demographics and the future of the Democratic Party.  As Morley Winograd and Michael Hais point out in their outstanding new book Millennial Makeover: MySpace, YouTube & and the Future of American Politics, America stands on the verge of a new political realignment.

<snip>

Win or lose in November, the right choice for the Party and the country is obvious: Barack Obama is the candidate who will secure the future of the Party--win or lose.  Just don't expect pundits, prognosticators and consultants still stuck in the realignment patterns of 1968 to understand that.

They just don't get it--and they probably never will.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/24/ 13312/2818/820/502597

I shit you not.


by skohayes on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 06:32:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's play over Obama (2.00 / 1)

Yea, they apparently don't understand that a realignment happens with a presidential victory.


by Jerome Armstrong on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 07:17:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Um, Jerome, you're wrong (none / 0)

Just look at 1964. That was a realignment for the GOP, and they suffered a massive presidential loss.


by Angry White Democrat on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 09:00:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's play over Obama (none / 0)

I posted this comment downthread- but it's very applicable to this conversation

This whole "electability" meme is a chickenshit way for us to stand up not for our beliefs, but to cower in fear from the Republican bogeyman.  My message is this: choose your Democratic candidate based not on bullshit polls and electability arguments, but on principle and the issues you care about.  I personally think Obama is more electable, but that is not why I am supporting him.  He reflects the values I care about and I believe in his ability to bring integrity to the White House.  If you support Clinton, disagree with me and tell me why you believe in her.  But spare me the "electability" cowardice.  Isn't "electability" the main reason we, as a party, nominated Kerry.  That turned out well.  We might as well have gone for Lieberman.  I'm not comparing either of our remaining two candidates to Joementum, at all, I'm just saying that when we play to win, rather than standing for our beliefs, we lose.


by nwgates on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 07:27:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's play over Obama (none / 0)

Kos was a young man when there was a realignment of the Democratic party, 1972.

I think Obama will pick a better VP candidate than McGovern was saddled with though.


by reggie44pride on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:32:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's play over Obama (1.00 / 1)

I TR'ed you because what you said is a distortion of the top rated diary over at Kos. It's about the future of the party ... and how Obama brings Millenials into the fold. If you know anything at all about blogging, folks use attention grabbing headlines to garner attention. Such is the case with that diary.
GeauxBama!
by DailyKingFish on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 06:28:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's play over Obama (none / 0)

Don't bring that weak-ass Kossack crap over here. That wasn't TR worthy and you know it. Take one yourself for your troubles.


by Jim J on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 07:56:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's play over Obama (2.00 / 2)

It's this math that is reason why trying to incinerate Obama is nothing more than political suicide. If you believe your own words that Obama or Hillary would have a tough map against McCain in the fall, then you and the candidate you support are making the situation worse by going on daily grinds against the person who by all measures will be the nominee.

The only way Clinton can win the nomination is to eviscerate Obama totally and completely in every way and to get the support of 70-80% of the remaining super delegates. It would be all out war if Michigan were counted considering Obama wasn't even on the ballot, and that is the only way she can catch him in popular vote.

You follow through with this hari kari solution, and you end with nothing but a nuclear wasteland of a democratic party.

You get Hillary Clinton as the democratic nominee, and you ensure McCain's victory in the fall. Every % at the margins according to you would be critical, and yet she is doing everythign she can to make sure that young voters, black voters, and all the other blocs of voters under 45 (which is really what this election is all about, i.e. it is generational more than affluent or racial or gender) will not turn out IN FORCE.

They will certainly turn out, but not in the numbers required for her to win, at the margins.

That and that alone is the flawed strategy at hand with this scorched earth political policy. It's just sad that you and other Hillary supporters, let alone Hillary herself, cannot see it. Or maybe you do see it and just don't care.


by Yalin on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 05:13:10 PM EST

Re: Clinton's play over Obama (2.00 / 1)

Yalin,

What you and many Obama supporters don't seem to understand is that this is a 2-edged sword.  You nominate Obama and whites, hispanics, and older voters will not turn out or worse - will vote for McCain - unfortunately for you, capturing this support is more crucial in the battleground states than is capturing young or AA supporters:

>>You get Hillary Clinton as the democratic nominee, and you ensure McCain's victory in the fall. Every % at the margins according to you would be critical, and yet she is doing everythign she can to make sure that young voters, black voters, and all the other blocs of voters under 45 (which is really what this election is all about, i.e. it is generational more than affluent or racial or gender) will not turn out IN FORCE.

We are trying to tell you that simply nominating Obama right now means death for the chances of a Dem president in November.  I am not suggesting that nominating Clinton is without problems - I am instead increasingly thinking that to preserve our chances in the GE, the nominee must be forced to give the other candidate the VP spot in addition to significant authority to oversee certain policy areas.

-Mike


by mikes101 on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 05:18:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

No, I think we understand. (2.00 / 1)

nominating Obama right now means death for the chances of a Dem president in November.

We're actually just waiting for some supporting evidence.  This diary is not that, nor are your opinions about who might stay home or vote for McCain, etc.  We like data, and data seems like to President Barack Obama at this point.


by McNasty on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 05:23:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No, I think we understand. (none / 0)

Hehe - what data would you accept as convincing?  I think there is plenty of polling indicating that what I have said is a likely case.  Predicting the future is not an exact science.


by mikes101 on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 05:31:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No, I think we understand. (none / 0)

Hehe - what data would you accept as convincing?  I think there is plenty of polling indicating that what I have said is a likely case.  Predicting the future is not an exact science.


by mikes101 on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 05:33:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's play over Obama (none / 0)

I understand the problem all too well. But I also understand that winning a state in a democratic primary, does NOT portend success in winning that state in the fall. See John Kerry's decisive wins in 2004 for example, mapped against the states he lost in the fall.

My issue is that if Obama is the nominee in the fall and he selects Hillary Clinton as his running mate (if she accepts), what good will it do with her complete evisceration of him and his qualifications?

Do you think that the voters who listened to her for months and months on end completely rip him a new one will then vote for him even with her on the ticket?

That is where this is going right now.


by Yalin on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 05:27:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's play over Obama (none / 0)

Well, I would prefer Clinton at the top of the ticket.

But, even as VP, if anyone can coach Obama about what he really needs to say to look strong, fight back, and win this thing, I think it is Clinton.

I don't think Clinton has eviscerated Obama.  He is still a viable candidate - but she has demonstrated that if John McCain runs the same strategy in the fall of questioning his competence and labeling him as an "unknown" and a "risk", Obama is highly vulnerable.

The only way I think Clinton accepts a VP slot is with significant agreed-upon responsibilities given to her.   Sort of like a co-presidency.  I'm beginning to think this is the only way we win in the fall.


by mikes101 on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 05:40:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's play over Obama (2.00 / 2)

Except that in a general election Obama will be much more willing to equally attack McCain. Right now he is operating under rules of intra party decorum that quite frankly the Clinton campaign is ignoring. She is going around saying that he is weak, he can't handle the difficult issues, he is unelectable, etc. The very same arguments could be made about her but he's unwilling to go there.


Proudly joining the legions of people and states that don't matter on May 20th.
by Obama Independent on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 05:53:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's play over Obama (none / 0)

When she makes arguments that McCain has crossed the threshold for commander in chief, along with herself, but Obama hasn't, that is an evisceration.

And there are a lot of other equally mind boggling statements she's made.

Lastly, Obama has tried to not campaign that way against Clinton. Yes he's certainly attacked her on policy, which is how it should be, but he has not gone so far as to state the republican would actually be better than she would be. And on several occasions at that.

He has also stated that she would be a good president while he thinks he would be better. But she has said that he cannot win and doesn't have the qualifications to lead.

That is evisceration imo.


by Yalin on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 06:00:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's play over Obama (2.00 / 2)

The real problem is that Clinton doesn't have a path to the nomination that gives her legitimacy.

Clinton is, in all likelihood, going to end up the primary season trailing Obama in overall delegates, pledged delegates, popular vote, and states won.  Even counting the bogus FL results.

Given all that, if Clinton gets the nomination by superdelegate fiat, the Obama supporters will -- quite validly -- feel like the election has been stolen from them, and that their voice doesn't matter.  It will be hugely disallusioning, and I think their sitting out of the GE is entirely understandable.

However, if Obama gets the nomination, he will simply have won it.  He'll be ahead in virtually every metric, and if Clinton voters stay home for the GE, that's nothing more than sour grapes at their preferred candidate not winning the nomination.  They'll be hurting the Democratic Party simply out of spite, and bad sportsmanship.

I'm sorry, but I don't think we should be held hostage by those that want to take their ball and go home simply because they lost.


by ChrisKaty on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 06:29:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's play over Obama (none / 0)

I think it is silly for BO supporters to claim "unassailability" to Obama's chances, but I think we can spend a lot of time getting worked up over polls that are meaningless.

I recognize that HRC's only argument left is electability, but c'mon, do you really believe polls in April (or way before that) reflect how things will shape up once a nominee is chosen?

Either Dem will get a bump in the polls when there is only one left.  Of course, that is unprovable until there is only one left....


It's just the beat of time, the beat that must go on
If you've been trying for years, we already heard your song
by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 05:15:10 PM EST

Not the only argument (none / 0)

There is also the popular vote, which requres the resolution of FLorida and Michigan.


99% perspiration
by DaveOinSF on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 05:38:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not the only argument (none / 0)

There is no possible "resolution" of MI and FL.  There simply aren't the time or resources to accurately determine the preferences of the voters of those states.

It sucks, but that's the reality of the situation.


by ChrisKaty on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 06:31:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not the only argument (none / 0)

I would love to see FL and MI vote, but both need to vote.  Certainly, I'd expect Clinton to be up in votes from FL but not so sure about MI.  Until there is a DNC-approved vote in either state, those votes don't count.  They are meaningless, especially Michigan.


It's just the beat of time, the beat that must go on
If you've been trying for years, we already heard your song
by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 06:40:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

THANK YOU, JEROME! (2.00 / 3)

You should post this diary everyday until Election Day.


I proudly support Barack Obama for President!
by Zeitgeist9000 on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 05:17:02 PM EST

Jerome, you are forgetting one BIG thing (2.00 / 1)

At the end of the primary season, if Obama is still standing with the most pledged delegates, the popular vote, and the most states won, and he DOESN'T get the nomination because the superdelegates decide to over run the will of the people and GIVE Hillary the nomination, you will see one PISSED OFF African-American base.  

Contrary to the media spin right now, the base of the Democrati party IS the African-American base not the white working class voters (which are more swing voters).  A PISSED OFF African-American base means that they will NOT go out and vote for Hillary in the high turn-out numbers she will need to overtake McCain in swing states.  

As a result, she WILL LOSE THE GENERAL ELECTION.

It is as simple as that.  These numbers you have put up would be MUTE if that was to happen.


by puma on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 05:17:15 PM EST

Re: Jerome, you are forgetting one BIG thing (2.00 / 1)

Gee, John McCain supposedly pissed off his base as well.  He seems to be doing pretty well since they have nowhere else to go.  Likewise, AAs will embrace whoever the Dem nominee is.


by mikes101 on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 05:20:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Jerome, you are forgetting one BIG thing (2.00 / 1)

Um, no. AA's can stay home. They have many times, and they will this time if the voters' will is overturned.


by rhetoricus on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 05:23:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Jerome, you are forgetting one BIG thing (2.00 / 2)

read the recent polling, it shows them choosing Clinton at a greater percentage than the fall off of white voters that support Clinton who move to Obama. Its been that way consistently for weeks.


by Jerome Armstrong on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 05:27:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Jerome you know deep in your soul (2.00 / 1)

that if African-Americans feel disenfranchised if Obama doesn't get the nomination if indeed he is still doing well against McCain as he is doing now in polls and has the most pledged delegates, etc that African-Americans will be PISSED off.  Me included.

I know African-Americans.  Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson will be raising hell.  It will NOT be pretty.  It will be Chicago 1968 all over again.  

They WILL stay home.  Hillary is NOT going to get the independents to make up for the poor turn out in the black votes.  She WILL need to have a high turn out of Dem voters which the base is black voters.

She will NOT be elected.  


by puma on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 05:39:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Jerome you know deep in your soul (2.00 / 2)

Shouting it doesn't make it so. I think they'll eventually wind up as a ticket together.


by Jerome Armstrong on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 05:40:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Jerome you know deep in your soul (2.00 / 1)

Who takes the second spot?

... and who convinces Big Dog to go live on another continent with no means of electronic communication, media access or uncensored mail for four to eight years?


by BlueinColorado on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 05:43:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Jerome you know deep in your soul (none / 0)

Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson will be raising hell.  It will NOT be pretty.  It will be Chicago 1968 all over again.  

Sharpton maybe, not Jackson (isn't there some friction between Obama and Sharpton?)

I actually don't think it will be '68, I think people will just very quietly stay home. And do so again 2010, and 2012, and....


by BlueinColorado on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 05:41:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Jerome you know deep in your soul (none / 0)

No ... there really isn't. They came together for Lamont in CT in '06. I know. I was there. I met both men.
GeauxBama!
by DailyKingFish on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 06:31:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Jerome you know deep in your soul (none / 0)

Sorry ... i thought i read friction between Sharpton and jackson.
GeauxBama!
by DailyKingFish on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 06:32:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Jerome you know deep in your soul (none / 0)

Puma,

Please recognize that many millions of white voters feel the same way about "handing this thing to Obama" regardless of the fact that he may be legitimately ahead in pledged delegates.

This is a cluster*&^! of a situation, but white voters can stay home or vote McCain too.  I happen to agree with Jerome that losing white voters will be worse for our chances, since black voters are not at risk of voting McCain, and fewer of them will do so.

Regardless, I really wish someone would get these candidates to put aside their differences and run together.  Nearly 30 million voters are nearly evenly split - they have spoken - they want both of these candidates.  Not one or the other - both.

-Mike


by mikes101 on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 05:45:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Jerome you know deep in your soul (none / 0)

Please recognize that many millions of white voters feel the same way about "handing this thing to Obama" regardless of the fact that he may be legitimately ahead in pledged delegates.

When ahead by overall delegates, pledged delegates, popular vote, and states won, you can hardly consider it "handing this thing to Obama".  It's called winning this thing.


by ChrisKaty on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 06:35:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Jerome you know deep in your soul (none / 0)

Why, why will white voters feel like it was stolen if Obama as you say "is legitmately ahead"?

Seriously, if this is the case then maybe we should just consider telling Black voters outright that we will not vote for one of them and that they might as well join the GOP, because hell even if they win on our side they wont get the nom.

Actually, if what you say is true maybe African-Americans should join the party of Lincoln, I mean the GOP has had more African American Cabinent officials, and just as many Supreme Court Justices, maybe there isn't a real difference between the two parties anymore, and lets face it if more Black voters went GOP they'd have more power, logically African Americans should vote en masse for  McCain if Hillary wins the nomination, that way if another Black canidate comes along, maybe they wont be shot down because their base can be taken for granted.


by Socraticsilence on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 06:48:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Jerome you know deep in your soul (none / 0)

Regardless, I really wish someone would get these candidates to put aside their differences and run together. /

Cuomo advanced this idea a few weeks back and.......

:crickets:

disclaimer, though I like both candidates equally, that is to say, I'd vote for them, but not enthusiastically, I think the ticket works better:

Clinton/Obama

I think it is unlikely that Clinton's core Democratic support of blue collar workers will care that she's the VP and therefore still might vote for the Democratic ticket.  However, I do think that the energized and youthful base that Obama has