9 Things After PA
There are a few important takeaways after Clinton's win in Pennsylvania to note.
1) Clinton again excelled at the expectations game. Going in yesterday, it was Obama who was saying it would be closer than many expected and that 50 plus 1 was a win, and Clinton saying that 'a win is a win', effectively lowering the bar.
2) Clinton won the late deciders. There was talk that Obama had an internal poll showing the race at 3% a few days ago, and it looks like similarly, SUSA might have picked up the same shift. But whatever it was, the voters who waited till the end went for Clinton.
3) Obama's campaign again provided the needed boost for Clinton's financial needs. You'll recall, after Feb 5th, the Obama campaign taunted Clinton's need to self-fund, and it resulted in a online fundraising spree that propelled Clinton to her own online fundraising efforts. This time, by outspending the Clinton's 3:1, they again provided Clinton the 'David against Goliath' narrative. Given Obama's campaign strategy and media services are directed (and profited by commission) by the same two persons, there is at worst a conflict of interest at play, and at best, a strategical blindspot of how to effectively close a lead without providing your opponent openings.
4) Less is more worked for Clinton. Along with being outdone on television by millions, the Clinton campaign claims they didn't waste money on late polling, but instead have become frugal in their consultant expenditures. The Geoff Garin for Mark Penn swap was a huge plus for the financial fundraising team as well.
4) Clinton needs to follow-through better. The after-effect is where Obama has excelled. After Feb 5th, and again after March 2nd, Obama created stronger process stories-- be they pledged delegate count or super-delegates or winning smaller states in-between or fundraising. The Obama campaign quickly managed to make the defeats he had to Clinton look like a side story.
5) The Clinton campaign needs to talk more about the popular vote. They have been taking a bigger picture view, and arguing about the GE and electability, but they need to bring it down a few notches of process, and put Obama on the defensive. The ~215K margin of victory by Clinton provides them with enough votes to take the popular vote lead, counting Florida and Michigan. It's a two-fer in that sense, providing a winning metric and making Obama say that FL & MI voters don't count. And with that, change the delegate number needed from 2025 to 2209.
6) I don't know if Guam is going Clinton, but if it does, they should celebrate it heavily, especially if it winds up with having more voters than Wyoming. Every vote counts, even the territories and especially, Puerto Rico. Don't let Obama crew intimidate Chuck Todd into marginalizing the results from PR.
7) Clinton doesn't need to go negative but can encourage the questions. Indiana has seen its share of rough contests--they don't call it the 'bloody eighth' for having cordial elections, but she has the lead there. In North Carolina, it looks like the Republicans have a coordinated attack playbook that they are launching on Obama, and Clinton isn't expected to win.
8) Clinton can win Indiana, having placed her top-notched Ohio crew there, and using the same sort of in-place infrastructure and resources that propelled her to victory in Ohio and Pennsylvania. "This is Our Country" is the best campaign song of 2008.
9) Clinton needs a strong high-profile surrogate in North Carolina. Is it true that Elizabeth Edwards is going to back Clinton? That would be huge.
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