I said before the Ohio primary that the big question for superdelegates would be, "did Obama peak in February, and go downhill from there?" Obama got a huge bump from January through March based upon his incredible charisma, his speaking skills, his freshness and, quite frankly, his not being Hillary. But the real question was always could he maintain it through November, and the test would be can he maintain it through June. If it was a wave that would peak, superdelegates are obligated to note that, even if it means going against the pledged delegate count. Why do I say that? Because the pledged delegate count is no more democratic than superdelegates. Both are part of the system, and they mutually support each other.
I know, most of you are already screaming at the screen and looking for the HR button. But step back and think about it for a second, would you? Rhetoric like "steal" the nomination is not helpful, NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS. You see, the whole superdelegate system IS part of the system. It is there to help the Party avoid '72, or even '88, again. It is also there as a counter-balance to the skewed system of selecting pledged delegates, which is NOT based upon popular vote, but weighted to party-build, rewarding Democratic districts with more delegates, giving rural votes more power than urban votes, etc.
Winning with superdelegates is no more "stealing" than winning with weighted primaries. I don't see anybody griping that Obama "stole" Nevada, which Clinton won with the popular vote, but Obama won on delegates. Why not? Because that was the rule. The superdelegate process is also the rule.
Okay, on to what I hope will be a useful analysis. I do not know the results as I begin, and will post this even if it goes against Clinton, though I suspect it will not.
I am going to look at states that might actually be in play in November. I will first exclude states that are not going anywhere, based upon a look at elections from 1980 to present. What follows are Republican percentage numbers from the general election:
Alabama-9
2004- 62
2000- 57
1996- 50
1992- 47
1988- 59
1984- 60
1980- 48
Interesting state, Alabama. 1980 was probably an aberration, since Carter was from neighboring Georgia. Republicans only missed 50% or more in '92, in a three-way race with a southernor on the Democratic ticket.
Alaska-3
2004- 61
2000- 59
1996- 50
1992- 39 Perot got 28. Bush still beat Clinton by 9%.
1988- 59
1984- 66
1980- 54
Alaska is going Republican in 2008.
Arizona-10
2004- 54
2000- 51
1996- 46
1992- 38 *Perot got 23%, Clinton got 36%
1988- 59
1984- 66
1980- 60
McCain is from Arizona. Even though '96 and '92 make it look possible, with McCain on the ticket it is a foregone conclusion.
Georgia-15
2004- 58
2000- 55
1996- 47 *Perot got 6%, Clinton got 45%
1992- 42 Clinton won Georgia
1988- 59
1984- 60
1980- 40 Carter won Georgia
Is Georgia in play? No, not really. It can be won by a southernor, but otherwise, not a chance. It has gotten more stridently Republican, as you can see by the blowouts in '00 and '04.
Idaho-4
2004- 68
2000- 69
1996- 52 *Perot got 12%
1992- 42 *Perot got 27%
1988- 62
1984- 72
1980- 66
Republican.
Indiana-11
2004- 60
2000- 57
1996- 47 *Perot got 10%
1992- 42 *Perot got 20%
1988- 59
1984- 61
1980- 56
Could Evan Bayh on the ticket change Indiana? No. Probably not. Anyway, that is only possible with a Clinton nomination, and if she gets it she has to take Obama, to heal the rift in the African American community.
Kansas-6
2004- 62
2000- 58
1996- 54 *Perot got 8%
1992- 38 *Perot got 27%
1988- 55
1984- 66
1980- 57
Something is still the matter with Kansas.
Louisiana-9
*note - Democratic numbers, because initially I had it in a different section.
2004- 42
2000- 45
1996- 52 *Perot 6
1992- 45 *Perot 11
1988- 44
1984- 38
1980- 45
Is Louisiana really in play? Clinton's '90s victories say "yes," but I think not. Louisiana's Democrats are living in Houston and elsewhere.
Mississippi-6
2004- 59
2000- 57
1996- 49 *Perot got 5%
1992- 49 *Perot got 8%
1988- 59
1984- 61
1980- 49 *Reagan won by a hair
Another southern State, reliably red without a Southerner leading the ticket.
Montana-3
2004- 59
2000- 58
1996- 44 *Perot 13
1992- 35 Clinton won, with Perot taking 26
1988- 52
1984- 60
1980- 56
Nope. Not going to happen. Sure, Clinton won in '92, but that was purely a Perot issue. He had one of his best performances here.
Nebraska-5
2004- 66
2000- 63
1996- 53 *Perot 10
1992- 46 *Perot 23
1988- 60
1984- 70
1980- 65
Red.
North Carolina-15
2004- 56
2000- 61
1996- 48 *Perot 6
1992- 43 *Perot 13
1988- 58
1984- 62
1980- 49 *Anderson 2
There is far too much ground to make up in North Carolina. North Carolina will be red in November.
Oklahoma-7
2004- 65
2000- 60
1996- 48 *Perot 10
1992- 42 *Perot 23
1988- 58
1984- 68
1980- 60
Red.
South Carolina-8
2004- 58
2000- 57
1996- 49 *Perot 6
1992- 48 *Perot 11
1988- 61
1984- 63
1980- 49
South Carolina was only competitive in 1980, with Carter from a neighboring State, though Reagan still won. Red.
South Dakota-3
2004- 60
2000- 60
1996- 46 *Perot 9
1992- 40 *Perot 21
1988- 52
1984- 63
1980- 60
Texas-34
2004- 61
2000- 59
1996- 48 *Perot 6
1992- 40 *Perot 22
1988- 56
1984- 63
1980- 55
Red.
Utah-5
2004- 71
2000- 67
1996- 54 *Perot 10
1992- 43 *Perot 24
1988- 66
1984- 74
1980- 72
Red. Red red red. RED!
Wyoming-3
2004- 66
2000- 69
1996- 49 *Perot 12
1992- 39 *Perot 25
1988- 60
1984- 70
1980- 62
Red.
The above states are just not in play. Dream if you will, but we do not make up 10-20% from one election to the next. If winning depends upon winning one of those states, we lose. It's really that simple.
Okay, what about the states we will win, whoever we run? THese are the Democrat numbers:
California-55
2004- 54
2000- 54
1996- 51 *Perot 6
1992- 46 *Perot 20
1988- 47 *Bush won
1984- 41 *Reagan won
1980- 36 *Reagan won
Can we discount the '80s? Probably. Reagan was from California, and Bush was seen as continuing his legacy. The weak win '92, and again in '96, is of concern, given that McCain is seen (wrongly) by many to be the independent maverick like Perot. That said, California is firmly blue.
Delaware-3
2004- 53
2000- 55
1996- 52 *Perot 10
1992- 42 *Perot 21
1988- 46 *Bush won
1984- 45
1980- 38 *Anderson 12
I also had Delaware a strong win in my head, until I looked at these numbers. It is still probably blue, but 1980-1992 give me some pause, paricularly with Perot's strong showing.
Obama won this primary by 10%. SUSA says they both win, but that poll is two months old now. With big wins the last four elections, and SUSA's polling, Delaware is still blue.
Hawaii-4
2004- 54
2000- 56
1996- 56 *Perot 7
1992- 48 *Perot 14
1988- 54
1984- 43 *Reagan won
1980- 44 *Anderson 10, Carter still won.
Hawaii is firmly blue.
Illinois-21
2004- 54
2000- 55
1996- 54 *Perot 8
1992- 48 *Perot 16
1988- 48 *Bush won
1984- 42 *Reagan won
1980- 41 Reagan won
Is Illinois in play? No, not really. Yes, Reagan and Bush I won, but it has been solid in the last four elections.
Maryland-10
2004- 56
2000- 57
1996- 54 *Perot 6
1992- 49 *Perot 14
1988- 48 *Bush won
1984- 47 *Reagan won
1980- 47 *Anderson 7, Carter won
Blue.
Massachusetts-12
2004- 62
2000- 60
1996- 52 *Perot 10
1992- 42 *Perot 21
1988- 46 *Bush won
1984- 38 *Reagan won
1980- 38 *Reagan won
Yes, Republicans won in the '80s, and Perot was strong. However, two straight performances over 60% mean this is blue. They can no more make up a 20% swing in one election than we can.
Michigan-17
2004- 49
2000- 51
1996- 48 *Perot 10
1992- 41 *Perot 21
1988- 51
1984- 45
1980- 43 *Anderson 7, Reagan won
This was incredibly close in '04, surprisingly close. That said, I'm sticking with the "if Dukakis won it, we can't lose it" theme.
Minnesota-10
2004- 51
2000- 48 *Nader 5, the bastard
1996- 51 *Perot 11
1992- 43 *Perot 24
1988- 53
1984- 49 *Mondale from Minnesota
1980- 49 *Mondale from Minnesota
We keep winning it, even with Dukakis. Minnesota will always run close, but blue.
New Jersey-15
2004- 55
2000- 56
1996- 54 *Perot 6
1992- 49 *Perot 14
1988- 48 *Bush won
1984- 47 *Reagan won
1980- 47 *Anderson 7
Blue. Yes, Republicans always think it's in play. New Jersey polls funny. Jersey is safely blue.
New York-31
2004- 58
2000- 60
1996- 59 *Perot 8
1992- 49 *Perot 15
1988- 51
1984- 45 *Reagan won
1980- 43 *Reagan won
Blue.
Rhode Island-4
2004- 59
2000- 61
1996- 59 *Perot 11
1992- 42 *Perot 21
1988- 55
1984- 48 *Reagan won
1980- 47 *Anderson 14
Blue.
Vermont-3
2004- 59
2000- 51
1996- 53 *Perot 12
1992- 46 *Perot 22
1988- 47
1984- 40
1980- 38 *Anderson 15
You can't call Vermont "in play," not when the Republicans would have to make up a 20% deficit from the last election.
Washington-11
2004- 52
2000- 50
1996- 49 *Perot 9
1992- 43 *Perot 23
1988- 50
1984- 42 *Reagan won
1980- 37 *Anderson 10, Reagan won
We are not going to lose a state Dukakis won. We won the last 5 elections in Washington. It only looked close in '00 because Nader and Browne took 5% of the vote. Washington is blue.
Washington DC-3
2004- 89
2000- 86
1996- 85
1992- 84
1988- 82
1984- 85
1980- 75
Blue.
Okay, so what states are actually in play, who won them in the primary/caucus, and who is the stronger candidate in November? The following are Democratic numbers:
Arkansas-6
2004- 44
2000- 45
1996- 53 *Perot 8
1992- 53 *Perot 10
1988- 42 *Bush won
1984- 38 *Bush won
1980- 47 *Anderson 2, Reagan won by less than 1%
Arkansas is a state in play, but only with Clinton leading the ticket. Arkansas has 6 electoral votes.
C-6 O-0
Connecticut-7
2004- 54
2000- 56
1996- 52 *Perot 10
1992- 42 *Perot 21
1988- 46 *Bush won
1984- 38
1980- 38
I assumed Connecticut was safe, but had to move it. We lost all three elections in the '80s, and the first two were huge blowouts. Perot also performed very strongly there, and McCain will appeal to some of those people. Frankly, I still consider it blue, but by this analysis has to be in the "in play" section. Obama is far more likely to win Connecticut.
C-6 O-7
Colorado-9
2004- 47
2000- 42
1996- 44 *Perot 6
1992- 40 *Perot 23
1988- 42 *Bush won
1984- 35 *Reagan won a blowout
1980- 31 *Anderson 11, Reagan won
Colorado would be strongly red but for the Perot-aided Clinton wins. This bodes ill for us in November, and my personal opinion is that Colorado is not in play. Perhaps holding our Convention there will help.
Obama blew Clinton away in a caucus. A GOP poll says McCain leads Clinton there, 52%-40%, and he leads Obama, 51%-39%. Sure, it's a GOP poll, so take with a whole shaker of salt. That said, we just can't count on Colorado no matter who our candidate. Who is MORE likely to turn this red state blue? Obama. Score so far?
C-6 O-16
Florida-27
2004- 47
2000- 49
1996- 48 *Perot 9
1992- 39 *Perot 19, Bush won
1988- 38
1984- 34
1980- 38
The ultimate swing state and the biggest state in play. Clinton can win it. Obama.
C-33 O-16
Iowa-7
2004- 49 *Bush won
2000- 49
1996- 50 *Perot 8
1992- 43 *Perot 18
1988- 54
1984- 45 *Reagan won
1980- 38 *Anderson 8, Reagan won
Obama won a 5-way caucus. Every poll available says Obama wins it and Clinton loses it.
C-33 O-23
Kentucky-8
2004- 59
2000- 57
1996- 45 *Perot got 8, Clinton got 44
1992- 41 *Clinton won
1988- 55
1984- 60
1980- 49
Is Kentucky in play? Based on '96, '92, and '80, perhaps, but only with a Southerner leading the ticket. But with 57% and 59% most recently, it's hard to call this anything but a red state. On the other hand, can you discount a State Clinton actually won, if Clinton is heading the ticket? No. I don't think so.
Clinton is on her way to a blowout in Kentucky. She is also within the margin of error against McCain in the latest polling. Advantage Clinton.
C-41 O-23
Maine-4
2004- 53
2000- 49 *Nader 6
1996- 51 *Perot 14
1992- 38 *Perot 30
1988- 43 *Bush won
1984- 38 *Reagan won
1980- 42 *Anderson 10, Reagan won
Yikes. I thought Maine was safe, but with three BIG Republican wins in the '80s, plus Perot's strongest showing, this is a tough race. Obama won huge there, by 19.
C-41 O-27
Missouri-11
2004- 49 *Bush won
2000- 47
1996- 47 *Perot 10
1992- 44 *Perot 21
1988- 47
1984- 40
1980- 44
Obama won the primary by a statistically insignificant margin. On the other hand,
SUSA says Clinton can win it, but Obama can't. What value polls this far out? Not much, not when they are this close. Call this one a wash and split the delegates with the extra to Clinton.
C-47 O-32
Nevada-5
2004- 47
2000- 46
1996- 44 *Perot 9
1992- 37 *Perot 26
1988- 38
1984- 32
1980- 26
Clinton is the only Democrat to win Nevada in thirty years, and only in very close three-way elections. Hillary won the popular vote but Obama got one more delegate. Right now, polls say Obama is stronger. I'm going to put my thumb on the scale for this close one, for Obama, lest people say I'm cheating for Hillary.
C-47 O-37
New Hampshire-4
2004- 50
2000- 47 *Bush won
1996- 49 *Perot 9
1992- 39 *Perot 22
1988- 36
1984- 31
1980- 28 *Anderson 13
New Hampshire is clearly a battleground state, though it only brings 4 electoral votes. Clinton bested Obama by 2% in a four-way contest, so that's really a draw. Polls right now make it a soft McCain state, with Obama performing better than Clinton.
C-47 O-41
New Mexico-5
2004- 49 *Bush won
2000- 48 *Gore won
1996- 49 *Perot 8
1992- 36 *Perot 24, Bush won
1988- 47
1984- 39
1980- 36 *Anderson 6
This is a true battleground state. Clinton won the primary by one percentage point. Big deal.
Polling flips back and forth as to who makes the better candidate. Split the five delegates, and give Clinton the extra for winning the primary.
C-50 O-43
Ohio-20
2004- 48 *Bush "won." Yeah, right. I was there. Games were played.
2000- 46
1996- 47 *Perot 10
1992- 40 *Perot 21
1988- 44
1984- 40
1980- 41 *Anderson 6
Nobody doubts Ohio is a big battleground state. It also brings 20 electoral votes to the table. Clinton won big in the primary. She is also polling better than Obama. SUSA's most recent poll has her over McCain by eleven, but Obama down two. Advantage Clinton.
C-70 O-43
Oregon-7
2004- 51
2000- 47 *Nader 5, the bastard. Gore won.
1996- 47 *Perot 8
1992- 42 *Perot 24
1988- 51
1984- 43
1980- 38 *Anderson 10
Under the "we won't lose a state Dukakis won" theory, Oregon is a lock. However, it has been uncomfortably close lately, so we'll call it in play. They won't go to the polls until May 20. It is almost a blue lock, but not quite. With
Obama it is a lock, but not quite with Hillary, so give this one to Obama.
C-70 O-50
Pennsylvania-21
2004- 51
2000- 51
1996- 49 *Perot 9
1992- 45 *Perot 18
1988- 48 *Bush won
1984- 46
1980- 42 *Anderson 6, Reagan won
Republicans won all the races in the '80s, we won since then. However, our wins in '00 and '04 were within 5 points. Clinton and Obama both lead in every poll but Strategic Vision. I am tempted to keep this in the "in play" column and give Clinton another 21 points, because I think McCain can really make it competitive. The difference between Pennsylvania and other states like Michigan and Minnesota is that Dukakis lost. He won in the other states.
C-91 O-50
Tennessee-11
2004- 42
2000- 48
1996- 45 *Perot 5
1992- 47 *Perot 10
1988- 41
1984- 41
1980- 48 *Reagan won by 3/10%
Clinton won twice, Carter barely lost, and Gore came close (but is a favorite son candidate). Is Tennessee really in play? We won it in two of the last four elections. Of course it is. Hillary won big in the primary. Every poll but one calls it a McCain blow-out. Hillary, however, outperforms Obama there by a mile.
C-102 O-50
Virginia-13
2004- 45
2000- 45
1996- 45 *Perot 6
1992- 40 *Perot 13
1988- 39
1984- 37
1980- 40 *Anderson 5
Is Virginia trending Democratic? Republican numbers are sure down from the 80s. On the other hand, the last Democrat to win Virginia was LBJ. I think this goes red in November, but I'll keep it "in play" for now. Obama MIGHT be able to put it in play. Clinton can't.
C-102 O-63
West Virginia-5
2004- 43
2000- 46
1996- 51 *Perot 11
1992- 48 *Perot 16
1988- 52
1984- 44
1980- 49 *Anderson 4, Carter won
Clinton x2 and Carter won, but we would have to make up 13% from the last election. That is a tough nut to crack, but call it "in play," with 3 of the last 7. Clinton is going to blow Obama away in the primary, and polls ahead of McCain, while Obama can't even see him in the distance.
C-107 O-63
Wisconsin-10
2004- 49 *Kerry won
2000- 48 *Gore won
1996- 48 *Perot 10
1992- 41 *Perot 21
1988- 51
1984- 45
1980- 43 *Anderson 7, Reagan won
Yes, Dukakis won. On the other hand, the last two elections have been less than a single percentage point apart. This is in play. Obama blew Clinton's doors off in the primary and outcompetes her against McCain.
C-107 O-73
Okay, so how does this all shape up?
The Republican states account for 156 electoral votes. The Democratic states account for 199 electoral votes. Now, throw in the "in play" states, and the final tally with Clinton is Clinton - 306, McCain 229. With Obama, the final tally is Obama 272, McCain 263.
Let's go, again, state by state:
Alabama-9
McCain 9 Clinton 0 / McCain 9 Obama 0
Alaska-3
McCain 12 Clinton 0 / McCain 12 Obama 0
Arizona-10
McCain 19 Clinton 0 / McCain 19 Obama 0
California-55
McCain 19 Clinton 55 / McCain 19 Obama 55
Delaware-3
McCain 19 Clinton 58 / McCain 19 Obama 58
Georgia-15
McCain 34 Clinton 58 / McCain 34 Obama 58
Hawaii-4
McCain 34 Clinton 62 / McCain 34 Obama 62
Idaho-4
McCain 38 Clinton 62 / McCain 38 Obama 62
Illinois-21
McCain 38 Clinton 83 / McCain 38 Obama 83
Indiana-11
McCain 49 Clinton 83 / McCain 49 Obama 83
Kansas-6
McCain 55 Clinton 83 / McCain 55 Obama 83
Louisiana-9
McCain 64 Clinton 83 / McCain 64 Obama 83
Maryland-10
McCain 64 Clinton 93 / McCain 64 Obama 93
Massachusetts-12
McCain 64 Clinton 105 / McCain 64 Obama 105
Michigan-17
McCain 64 Clinton 122 / McCain 64 Obama 122
Minnesota-10
McCain 64 Clinton 132 / McCain 64 Obama 132
Mississippi-6
McCain 70 Clinton 132 / McCain 70 Obama 132
Montana-3
McCain 73 Clinton 132 / McCain 73 Obama 132
Nebraska-5
McCain 78 Clinton 132 / McCain 78 Obama 132
New Jersey-15
McCain 78 Clinton 147 / McCain 78 Obama 147
New York-31
McCain 78 Clinton 178 / McCain 78 Obama 178
North Carolina-15
McCain 93 Clinton 178 / McCain 93 Obama 178
Oklahoma-7
McCain 100 Clinton 178 / McCain 100 Obama 178
Rhode Island-4
McCain 100 Clinton 182 / McCain 100 Obama 182
South Carolina-8
McCain 108 Clinton 182 / McCain 108 Obama 182
South Dakota-3
McCain 111 Clinton 182 / McCain 111 Obama 182
Texas-34
McCain 145 Clinton 182 / McCain 145 Obama 182
Utah-5
McCain 150 Clinton 182 / McCain 150 Obama 182
Vermont-3
McCain 150 Clinton 185 / McCain 150 Obama 185
Washington-11
McCain 150 Clinton 196 / McCain 150 Obama 196
Washington DC-3
McCain 150 Clinton 199 / McCain 150 Obama 199
Wyoming-3
McCain 153 Clinton 199 / McCain 153 Obama 199
Now add in the states that are only barely likely to be swing states:
Kentucky-8
McCain 161 Clinton 199 / McCain 161 Obama 199
Maine-4
McCain 161 Clinton 203 / McCain 161 Obama 203
Pennsylvania-21
McCain 161 Clinton 224 / McCain 161 Obama 224
Tennessee-11
McCain 172 Clinton 224 / McCain 172 Obama 224
West Virginia-5
McCain 177 Clinton 224 / McCain 177 Obama 224
and now for the real swing states. These fall into three different categories, only Clinton can win, only Obama can win, either can win. First, only Obama can win:
Iowa-7
McCain 184 Clinton 224 / McCain 177 Obama 231
Oregon-7
McCain 191 Clinton 224 / McCain 177 Obama 238
Virginia-13
McCain 204 Clinton 224 / McCain 177 Obama 251
*Virginia is going red, but at least Obama is occasionally near the margin of error.
Okay, now for the states only Clinton can win:
Arkansas-6
McCain 204 Clinton 230 / McCain 185 Obama 251
Florida-27
McCain 204 Clinton 257 / McCain 212 Obama 251
In all fairness, I need to put Colorado in the "Obama can, Hillary can't" column:
Colorado-9
McCain 213 Clinton 257 / McCain 212 Obama 260
Either one can win Connecticut, but Obama is a lot stronger:
Connecticut-7
McCain 220 Clinton 257 / McCain 212 Obama 267
They're both going to win Maine:
Maine-4
McCain 220 Clinton 261 / McCain 212 Obama 271
Missouri has to go in the "only Clinton can win it" column. She is ahead in the latest SUSA poll, and Obama can't even see the finish line:
Missouri-11
McCain 220 Clinton 272 / McCain 223 Obama 271
They both win Nevada
Nevada-5
McCain 220 Clinton 277 / McCain 223 Obama 276
New Hampshire is very pink right now. Obama has a better shot than Clinton at making it blue:
New Hampshire-4
McCain 224 Clinton 277 / McCain 223 Obama 280
New Mexico will go red with McCain from next door:
New Mexico-5
McCain 229 Clinton 277 / McCain 228 Obama 280
Wisconsin will go blue:
Wisconsin-10
McCain 229 Clinton 287 / McCain 229 Obama 290
And that leaves Ohio. What a surprise, eh? Clinton is simly stronger in Ohio. Obama has only polled ahead of McCain once this year there, by one point, in a PPP poll. After yesterday, well, that means pretty much nothing.
Ohio-20
McCain 229 Clinton 307 / McCain 249 Obama 290
Conclusion:
Both candidates can win in November. In a 50-state analysis, Clinton is the stronger electoral candidate. The superdelegates can do the same analysis, and are doing it right now. I predict that they will force a Clinton-Obama ticket, with Obama tasked to keep his troops calm and in the fold. I know everybody likes the idea of a "50 state strategy," but that just doesn't work so well with the Electoral College. The truth is there is, at best, an 18 state strategy, because the rest are just not in play.
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